Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll finds the Coalition lagging still further behind Labor on voting intention, despite a more mixed picture on leadership ratings.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records Labor’s two-party preferred lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, with the Coalition taking a three-point tumble on the primary vote to 36%, Labor up a point to 40%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%. Despite this, Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and down two on disapproval to 47%, and has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 49-36 to 50-34. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 47%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1528.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,192 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Where is the comeback king according to David Crowe. That Resolve poll was one of the worst in history as I posted at the time.

  2. If Scott Morrison, perversely, is the only thing keeping the Coalition afloat, I guess we’ll be in for another Eddie Everyman Everywhere election.

  3. South

    A November election means the campaign starts early October. Cases in NSW will be in the thousands by then, and still rising. Campaigning will be near impossible. The ALP will want votes in QLD, so its unlikely for them to continue to sit on the fence regarding “let it rip”..

    A genuinely fucked up time to be had.

  4. Love it. Nice and on-trend. Of course, until polls close at the eventual election, I am going to offer the same caution I have since Labor started taking decent leads and advise against premature celebration, it’s still great to see.

  5. If I remember correctly, Morrison suffered a big drop in his personal ratings last Newspoll after several shocking weeks, so this might be a natural correction.

  6. Morrison and Berejiklian look continuously isolated day by day. Maybe the penny is finally dropping that they are are Bullshitter in chief and Gaslighter in chief.

  7. C@t,
    no, but I do think Albo is amazingly lucky to have Scomo, I think the ALP could have a cardboard cutout as oppo leader and have a lead in the polls with how he’s blown the last 3 years of disaster mismanagement.

  8. Wat

    Agreed. So much of the polls is immediate emotional reaction. When it come to hard core campaigning people will dragged back to their deeply emotionally seated (incorrect) ideas about economics. Labor will tax you to death, or whatever – but its the same tactic every election. Appealing to belief that Labor are terribly with money. That’s what lost Labor the last election too. Not the coal miners.

  9. Labor PV UP!!!! Excellent. If sustained, that would herald a decisive victory. The Green PV is soft too. Also Excellent. Hopefully these trends will continue.

  10. A senior ICU nurse in Sydney, tasked with looking after NSW’s sickest patients, has admitted she’s no longer able to promise Covid patients that they’ll wake up from their comas, as the Delta strain wreaks havoc on the state’s hospitals.

    Michelle Rosentreter described Sydney’s hospital situation as “extreme” and “exhausting”.

    “With our Covid patients and the pressures on our staff and our system it’s … very exhausting. Our patients are very, very sick. They come in critically unwell. They don’t slowly deteriorate, they’re already at that dire state the minute we see them,” she told The Project tonight.

  11. How could people go to vote during the Delta Demic!?! Would you have to make an appointment to cast your vote? The doors to the polling places would be choke points where Delta hangs around just waiting for a loose mask to pass by.

    Not to mention the cray cray crowd who have started burning down testing sites for the vaccine. How will they make their presence felt in an election campaign? And then you have Clive Palmer and Craig Kelly trying to convince people of their Business First, er Anti Lockdown, policies.

    Definitely not going to be your normal election campaign.

    March is the only time I can think of that it might be relatively calm.

  12. Wat Tyler:

    Agreed.

    Before anyone gets too excited.(I certainly have a big grin on my face right now), it’s important to remember how many polls like this we saw between 2013 and 2019. Only one poll that matters.

    But, still, this is very encouraging, and should have the government very worried indeed.

  13. Hey Cud.

    How emotional are you allowed to get, just because your children die around you as a result of Government recklessness and incompetence?

  14. steve davis @ #16 Sunday, August 29th, 2021 – 9:46 pm

    Morrison and Berejiklian look continuously isolated day by day. Maybe the penny is finally dropping that they are are Bullshitter in chief and Gaslighter in chief.

    John Birmingham came up with a great nickname for Berejiklian:

    Happy Glad. 🙂

    Obviously due to the deliriously happy way she presents dire news every day.

  15. south says:
    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 9:46 pm

    C@t,
    no, but I do think Albo is amazingly lucky to have Scomo, I think the ALP could have a cardboard cutout as oppo leader and have a lead in the polls with how he’s blown the last 3 years of disaster mismanagement.

    This is rubbish. Albo has been an absolute model of discipline. The focus is and always has been on the Government. The result is that disaffection is focussed on the LNP rather than on Labor. This is attributable to Albo’s restraint…a quality that more-than-a-few bludgers have relentlessly criticised.

  16. “ A senior ICU nurse in Sydney, tasked with looking after NSW’s sickest patients, has admitted she’s no longer able to promise Covid patients that they’ll wake up from their comas, as the Delta strain wreaks havoc on the state’s hospitals.”

    Given about a third of ventilated Covid patients die, I’m hoping she has never made that promise. Then again, the ones who die aren’t likely to point out her error.

  17. From the OZ:
    Covid-free West already at breaking point
    WA’s health system is ‘on its knees’ despite the state avoiding any significant coronavirus outbreaks.

    All the more reason not to open up if thats true. I wouldnt believe the date in that rag.

  18. Asha @ #23 Sunday, August 29th, 2021 – 9:50 pm

    Wat Tyler:

    Agreed.

    Before anyone gets too excited.(I certainly have a big grin on my face right now), it’s important to remember how many polls like this we saw between 2013 and 2019. Only one poll that matters.

    But, still, this is very encouraging, and should have the government very worried indeed.

    I think we also need to leaven our caution with a smidgeon of optimism because the electorate has had 3 more years of Scott Morrison now over 2019, when his schtick was new.

  19. Hate to rain on the parade, but surely that’s a bit of an outlier. Even allowing that the ALP’s pv of 40 is credible, the 36 for the Liberals looks very questionable to me. However, being a Labor supporter I’m more than happy to take it.

  20. Not surprised because there was something suss about the Resolve polls because the anger hasn’t disappeared but the federal and state polls made it look like it had.

  21. Vic,
    I’d be putting my money on a March election. Kids back at school, vaccinated. Life back to ‘Covid Normal’ as the Menacing Wallpaper strong arms the recalcitrant Premiers into opening up by launching a scathing, negative ad campaign against Labor in general.

    If I can scope it out that way, so can Topham Guerin and Crosby Textor.

  22. Bystander
    It might be an outlier but would align with the anger level and why the government is sounding desperate to get things opened up.

  23. Asha says:
    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 9:50 pm
    Wat Tyler:

    Agreed.

    Before anyone gets too excited.(I certainly have a big grin on my face right now), it’s important to remember how many polls like this we saw between 2013 and 2019. Only one poll that matters.

    But, still, this is very encouraging, and should have the government very worried indeed.

    Maybe it’s a false-positive sample. But the internals are consistent with each other. The Lib PV is falling. The Green PV is falling. The Labor PV is rising. These signify a shift in the assignment of intention by voters. They make sense. Such shifts were clearly discernible in WA in 2017, when Labor ejected the Liberals; and were repeated this year when the Liberals were obliterated and the Greens were almost extinguished.

    Best numbers we’ve seen in many a long….

  24. Maybe the fact people haven’t been going out every day to buy their paper copy of the Murdoch tabloids has had an effect?

  25. a r says:
    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 9:55 pm
    N @ #21 Sunday, August 29th, 2021 – 9:49 pm

    The Green PV is soft too. Also Excellent.
    You do realize that if the Greens had held onto that point, we’d probably be talking 55/45 right now?

    Nah. The dissipation of the Green vote will be matched close to 1:1 by an increase in the Labor PV. The Greens are lead in the saddlebags.

  26. C@t

    Except that before March there will be an unspeakably horrible Xmas. And if we don’t get anywhere near effective herd immunity, or Gladys keeps her threat to abandon contact tracing, its going to be cruising in the tens of thousands of cases per day, all the way into the election.

    There’s no shortage of “fuel” for this virus.

  27. Splendid result and confirming the earlier Morgan Poll and it’s great to see Labor on a PV of 40. Morrison would be highly unlikely to call an election on these figures, hoping for a return to normal next year. But unlike the bush fires, I’m not so sure that the electorate will be so forgiving. And this 2PP will give Albanese and his Shadows the impetus to keep up its attack, mainly centred on the meme of Morrison had two jobs and he’s stuffed up both of them big time. And Berejiklian should also be worried as she’s viewed as Morrison’s accolyte.

  28. I seriously doubt the Greens movement is anything more than MOE. They’ve been consistently bouncing around the 8-12% area since the Gillard years.

  29. Morrison will rush to an early november election because he knows Dutton and Frydenberg are plotting to dump him.
    Also, if Morrison waits to next year it will be revealed officially in feb 2022 that Australia is in the Second Recession caused by Morrison that will doom the Liberals to a Landslide loss..
    It is now clear that the Resolve poll is a completely unreliable poll set up by people who used to do polling for the Liberal party.eg. not including 27% undecided in last poll but giving the Liberal party more support and not including two party preferred.

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