The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records Labor’s two-party preferred lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, with the Coalition taking a three-point tumble on the primary vote to 36%, Labor up a point to 40%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%. Despite this, Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and down two on disapproval to 47%, and has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 49-36 to 50-34. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 47%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1528.
That was the Anti Vax party, but we won’t have to worry about them by March ….
Recently retired State public servant (Victoria) happy to report just accepted as a member of the ALP. This poll is encouraging.
But envisage so many scenarios could emerge from here. Morrison, ever the self-confessed super salesman, will twist and float any number of memes and sound bites to recover.
Seems to pop up on the main news every day now, like one of those Call Call Carpet Call ads, with some jingly new and usually somewhat awkward analogy.
This poll suggests the marginal voters are sick of it.
Malcolm
I dont see them calling an election when 3 states are in lockdown. Campaigning would be a non entity.
Just look at the UK over the past 2+ months. Delta rose rapidly, “peaked” and is now going up again. Again, there’s still plenty of UK people who haven’t been infected yet, so what’s going to stop it?
The average rate of cases in the UK over the past 2 or so months is around 25,000. If that were Australia, it would be around 12,000. Of course, they have more natural immunity than we do, so all else being equal, we will be worse.
I can’t quite recall, but one of the right wing nutters that frequents this site had a go at me when I said the numbers in the UK had peaked. Well, they had at that point. Now they’re going up again. Wait till the UK schools reopen after the summer (Scotland starts earlier).
There’ll be no pleasing some bludgers. If Labor win, the result will be in spite of Albo rather than because of him. Damned if he loses. Damned if he wins.
Truth is, Albo has kept well away from trouble. Trouble has national franchise called the Morrison Government.
The Resolve Strategic was probably a rogue, but considering what happened in 2019, we probably should be approaching Newspoll, Morgan, and the rest with some healthy skepticism too.
Would this translate to about Labor 90 Coalition 55 seats?
Malcolm
Talking to Liberal Party members they are not confident about fighting the election this year because of how the polls are looking.
Morrison’s bonhommie looked a little too earnest last week. He came across as brittle, and defensive.
He’s been in the party room, pleading for unity. He’s been attempting to put Albanese in the frame as a heckling recalcitrant, more intent on making mischief than the national interest.
His media spruikers, particularly Coorey and Benson, have also protested his brilliance rather too much. The piece by Benson the other day about Campaign Man, in his element, with his mojo back, was embarrassing. Coorey’s article yesterday was full of spite about Albo and quite bitchy. It sounded like it was straight off the PMO talking points email.
But this morning Coorey gave the game away when he admitted that all the hype from the media this week may well have been made up, by admitting that public support for Morrison’s anti-lockdown position was not the result of polling, but was indeed “anecdotal”.
Until this evening, that is. Now we DO have a poll, and ain’t it a doozy! It looks like the Morrison spell is broken.
There’s an argument to be made that the Greens actually serve as a pretty effective source of preferences for Labor from voters who might otherwise not turn out, vote informal, or vote Liberal.
A change of the Tory leadership requires two-thirds of the party room to vote to trigger a spill motion. It won’t happen. And although it’s too early to predict a Tory drubbing, a few more polls like this and their bums will be seated to the left of the Speaker.
Benson and Coorey cheer squad failed just like their man always has in any job hes ever had.
Margin of error: 2.6%.
Sceptic:
On a uniform swing, Labor would probably pick up roughly 20 seats on these numbers, putting them very close to 90. Swings are never uniform, though, and I suspect we will see a lot more variance from state to state this time around
Morrison approval has gone from high 60s to 49 in a year.
When I see “media spruikers” I read “pimps”.
I wonder how much of this movement can be attributed to the cave-dwellers of WA and QLD.
Cud Chewer
Coronavirus infections in England are now 26 times the levels that were experienced this time last year, according to the Office for National Statistics. Scientists described the figures as “sobering”.
They warned that the reopening of schools in England this week was likely to trigger further rises in Covid cases – with more to follow when students return to universities and colleges. A fresh wave of infections could, in turn, lead to new social restrictions being imposed as winter approaches.
As a result, pressure is mounting on the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation to approve the deployment of booster jabs for vulnerable people and the extension of vaccinations to most 12- to 15-year-olds. The latter move would bring the UK into line with the US and most large European nations and is backed by most ministers.
Parramatta Moderate @ #1514 Sunday, August 29th, 2021 – 9:37 pm
Models like the one you are following are either massively optimistic (as in living on another planet optimistic) OR are assuming that restrictions that prevent the spread of the virus are maintained and not loosened.
Gladys seems intent on easing restrictions even before the vaccination targets are reached. This WILL spread the virus more regardless of a persons ‘vaccination status’. Vaccinated individuals WILL still spread the virus to other vaccinated individuals and un-vaccinated individuals alike.
The UK is at 62.3% fully vaccinated (just short of our “80% of eligible”) and 70.3% either partially or fully vaccinated. The UK also has extremely high natural immunity from people that have had COVID and recovered which Australia does not.
The UK death rate is 790 per week. The UK known infections per week are ~230,000. Divided by three to estimate Australia at the same level of vaccination*.
*Again, Australia’s numbers WILL be higher because we have only had ~50,000 known infections to contribute to natural immunity. The UK has had ‘at least’ 6,500,000 prior infections.
Cud Chewer @ #54 Sunday, August 29th, 2021 – 10:06 pm
Wait until Northern hemisphere winter. The world hasn’t seen what Delta looks like during a proper winter yet. It won’t be pretty.
BB, it was my distinct impression this morning that Coorey only made the concession because he then knew the result of Newspoll, and that his BS jig was up.
a r
That cheered me up no end…
Do we know if natural immunity after infection is a Thing?
And if it is a Thing, would it cover all strains of COVID, or would it be similar to the flu, where last year’s infection doesn’t prevent this year’s.
Hmm, while I think it’s more likely than not that Scomo survives until the election, if the government are facing a wipe-out, all bets are off. Scomo apparently isn’t particularly well-liked in the party room, and he’s such a populist that I imagine he hasn’t got many who back him for purely ideological reasons. His value to caucus is his ability to keep them on the treasury benches – without that, he’s useless to them.
The Libs will do whatever they think they need to do to win, simple as that. They would probably elect Richard Pusey as leader if they thought it would get them another term.
Maybe. Fact is we’ll never know the answer. It should be remembered that polls this far out from an election (whether said election is in a month’s time or nine months’ time) are not predictions, they are just an attempt to capture the mood of the electorate in the present. Things can and do change. A year ago, the thought of Labor being anything but token opposition in an easy re-election for Morrison almost felt like fantasy, now we need to be careful and restrain ourselves from measuring the drapes.
All one can say is that the general polling trend right now isn’t pretty for Morrison and the Government.
“On a uniform swing, Labor would probably pick up roughly 20 seats on these numbers, putting them very close to 90. Swings are never uniform, though, and I suspect we will see a lot more variance from state to state this time around”
We all know about a week in politics and the rest of it but as things stand right now, Morrison is screwed in WA. Not totally, but the unnatural number of seats they hold has to swing back at some point. I think the caveman thing might take of three or four of them. Same with Queensland. Labour is not really a 6 or 7 out 30 or so seats in that or any other state so natural attrition will take care of two or three but you could add some more if the covid situation remains as is. And if it gets worse, they will blame NSW. Who else? Victoria is approaching the inverse of WA/Qld levels and some heavy LNP hitters down there are going to be wondering what Skynews shift they will be given. You can see it in Frydenburg’s face. I would say a minimum of three seats there. Maybe one in SA. Maybe not. Tasmania might swing back to the ALP but the LNP has kept them covid clean so maybe not. Morrison’s best chance is NSW because the ALP already holds a high number of seats. But with Bereklian performing the way she is, anything is possible. However, it looks like lockdown will probably go until Xmas and if it does, it will be catastrophic for Morrison. It can’t not be. The mood here is already poisonous.
I would recommend them to Zac Kirkup as an alternative.
Asha says:
Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 10:09 pm
There’s an argument to be made that the Greens actually serve as a pretty effective source of preferences for Labor from voters who might otherwise not turn out, vote informal, or vote Liberal.
This isn’t an argument. It’s an excuse. It’s a feeble attempt to justify campaigning against Labor/for the LNP.
C@tmomma at 9:49 pm
“How could people go to vote during the Delta Demic!”
By postal vote. One ground for a postal vote is if “The person will be unable to attend a polling booth on polling day because of a reasonable fear for, or a reasonable apprehension about, his or her personal wellbeing or safety.” (Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, Schedule 2.) That clearly covers fear of catching Covid. You would have to apply for a postal vote, but that’s dead easy to do online now.
If the government is hoping to run a final week scare campaign with lots of yellow and black advertising on TV, it won’t want lots of people voting by post the week after nominations close. And it probably wouldn’t want voters for right wing minor parties to be casting postal votes without the benefit of a how-to-vote card preferencing the coalition.
The other issue is campaigning. It would be rather delicious to see Mr Morrison and his ministers getting stuck in lockdown or quarantine somewhere.
A March election would clash at least somewhat with the South Ausralian election legislated for that month every four years.
This is Labor’s best polling result for a very long time yet still there are doubters, probably due to the 2019 election. I think in that election the electorate was willing to give Morrison a go. I very much they’ll give him a second chance to spruik his nonsense, the latest of which is his cave metaphor, most likely emanating from some obscure Old Testament text such as the Cave of Adullam but recast in a more contemporary form.
The idea that Morrison wouldn’t hold an election on public health grounds… come on.
He wants to win, he’ll take ANY opportunity.
Yep, it was how Turnbull managed to convince a majority of the party room to support him in 2015 – and what lost him that majority in 2018.
There’s a provision in the state constitution that the state election can be delayed if it’s scheduled for the same month as a federal election.
Don’t discount the cave dwellers in SA and Tas having some effect on these numbers too.
Oddly Morrison omits mentioning those states when he talks about removing border restrictions and ‘opening up’.
Mavis:
I agree that the baseball bats do seem to be out right now in a way they never were during 2016-2019, but a lot can happen before now and the election. And if they do roll Morrison, his successor could just pull off the same trick he did last time.
Morrison’s cave metaphor is less likely to have emanated from the cave of Adullam as from diverticula in his bowel.
Facing defeat, Morrison will be like a cornered rat. I don’t think that there’s much he wouldn’t stoop to to stave off defeat.
We had council elections here in Queensland last year right when the initial outbreak fully kicked into gear. After the first couple of days of prepolls, no volunteers were allowed at the booths during polling hours and instead big signs displayed each party’s HTV card. It was a bit of a mess*, but mostly seemed to work. Of course, we didn’t have Delta then, so might not be at all practical this time around.
* I remember heaps of confusion over whether we were allowed to scrutineer or not – I went home under the impression that we couldn’t, then rushed back to the booth early in the count after learning that we actually could, and was let inside to discover I was the only scrutineer there!
In any case, Morrison’s not going to let some piddly thing like the health and safety of millions of Australians get in the way of his re-election bid. He’ll go at whatever time he thinks is best for him, consequences be damned.
As further clarification to my above post about the ability to delay the SA election, it appears in the instance of a federal election being in the same month as the state election, the date can be moved back to another Saturday up to 21 days after the original intended date. The current intended date is 19 March 2022, so it can be held as late as 9 April 2022. Easter Saturday in 2022 is on 16 April, so there’s no issue there.
Morrison will be begging Palmer for help like never before. $100m or more this time?
The Libs will do whatever they think they need to do to win, simple as that. They would probably elect Richard Pusey as leader if they thought it would get them another term.
😆
I would be very interested in a State breakdown of the polling.
My hunch is that sandgropers will not have taken too kindly to the suggestion they are living in a cave and Mexicans are mightily sick of a Sydney-centric federal government.
If I were Morrison, I’d be begging Palmer to stop helping. The Coalition want to retain at least a few seats in WA.
@Asha – exactly.
Being a shonky ad man, Morrison will be comfortable triggering or weathering the crisis (or crises) that call out for “his” solution. He’ll go whenever suits him.
Part of the reason why I don’t believe November can be discounted for a second, is there’s absolutely no guarantee March is going to be better for him.
In terms of leadership – I don’t buy Morrison going anywhere, let alone being forced out.
It is worth repeating, this could be the last sitting week before the election (also no more party room meetings… just to be certain, lol) … just saying.
Steve777 @ #86 Sunday, August 29th, 2021 – 10:40 pm
Even The Rodent was eventually defeated. He couldn’t evade time and tide.
Keep in mind, we have seen all this before, there are lot of soft votes that will switch back.
But, it is handy for Labor to have coalition MPs looking at their own future around this time in the election cycle.
The more time Morrison has to catch up on vaccination rates and maybe get a muzzle on the parabolic increase in case numbers (eventually), the better. Similarly, the more time the propaganda machine has to trash the efficacy of lockdown measures altogether, shift the blame for his and Berejiklian’s handling and reframe the crisis, and find new distractions for the media to glom onto, then all the more advantageous.
People forget what the polls were like in August 2018. They were pretty much exactly where they are now. Things can turn around. A day is a long time in politics.
Don’t worry, if an election happens during lockdown or when the virus is rampant, the media will forgive him with cries of “To be fair, the election had to happen sometime, there wasn’t much he could do!”, “Woddabout QLD and WA Labor Governments holding state elections!” and “Just wear a mask or vote by post. It’s no big deal!” and other good faith apologetics and courtesy that they would never extend if a Labor PM did the same. (Heck, I remember when Gillard announced the date well in advance for when she intended to go to an election in 2013 and it happened to coincide with Yom Kippur and the press treated like she was organising a pogrom.)