Roy Morgan published results on Wednesday of its latest federal voting intention polling, as it does from time to time, in this case combining surveys conducted over the past two weekends from 2709 respondents. This shows Labor with its biggest lead of the term, from this or any other pollster: 53.5-46.5, out from 52.5-47.5 in the poll it published in mid-July. The Coalition and Labor are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively being down two and steady, while the Greens are up a point to 12.5% and One Nation is steady on 3%. These numbers have ticked the BludgerTrack poll aggregate a further 0.4% to Labor, who are now credited with a lead 52.4-47.6.
State breakdowns of the two-party vote are provided, showing Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (for a swing in their favour of about 3% compared with the 2019 election), 59.5-40.5 in Victoria (a swing of about 6.5%, and three points stronger for Labor than the previous poll), 55.5-44.5 in South Australia (a swing of about 5%) and 54-46 in Tasmania (a 2% swing to the Liberals, although the sample size here is particularly flimsy), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%) and 51.5-48.5 in Western Australia (a swing of about 4%, which is a fair bit more modest than other polling from WA recently).
I understand that the CMO and the Coalition are watching the UK to see how it fares with its No More Lockdowns, High Vaccination Rate and Living With the Delta Variant policy. Apparently there was an initial surge in numbers of infections but subsequent to that, to quote the person I listened to, ‘numbers have dropped off a cliff’.
Someone else made the point that it’s mid summer and it’s probably best to wait until they’ve been through winter to see how well that works out.
sprocket_,
The Quigley effect?
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/08/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-8-august-2021.pdf
140,000 on a Saturday with about 58k to NSW and 32k to Vic.
Shellbell
Will be interesting to see if Victorians between ages 18 to 39 will now be up to having AZ.
Considering that from tmrw, state hubs will be able to administer it to them provided they give informed consent.
@10NewsFirstMelb
#springst
Simon Love
@SimoLove
Replying to
@SimoLove
Astra-Zeneca will be available from tomorrow for 18-39 yo’s at 9 Victorian state run vaccination hubs.
Bookings available online – then a conversation on arrival with doctor, they then provide informed consent and given the dose.
@10NewsFirstMelb
#springst
The Victorians know how to do it sensibly.
Based on antibody testing of blood donors, 96.2% of the UK adult population now have antibodies to COVID-19 from either infection or vaccination.
Current Protection Levels in the UK:
74.1% of UK Adults 18+ are Fully vaccinated (or 57.3% of total population)
88.9% of UK Adults 18+ have at least one dose (or 69.1% of total population)
96.2% of UK Adults 18+ some antibody protection from infection or vaccination (or 76.0% of total population)
Australia – First Target 70% of those aged 16+ (or just 56% of Australia’s total population).
At our current rate of vaccination, Australia will reach our first target by mid December 2021 (almost 5 months away).
However, for Australia to reach the current equivalent level of anti-body protection as the UK, Australia will need to vaccinate ~14,500,000 (Fully) and at least another ~5,000,000 (first dose).
The Federal Government’s current target of 70% of 16+ (or just 56% of total population) will need to be at least 56% of the total population receiving two doses, plus an additional 19% of the total population receiving a minimum of one dose (or 75% of the total population receiving some vaccination) to reach the equivalent level of protection in the UK.
At present the UK death rate is >75 per day, translated to Australia that would be >25 deaths per day at the same level of protection.
Virginia Trioli
@LaTrioli
·
6h
Why masks are still important among the fully vaccinated for the protection of the vulnerable. Our challenge here re ventilation and filtration once we get to good vaccination levels.
@CDCgov
Quote Tweet
The Situation Room
@CNNSitRoom
· Aug 6
“Our vaccines are working exceptionally well,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky tells @wolfblitzer. “They continue to work well for Delta, with regard to severe illness and death – they prevent it. But what they can’t do anymore is prevent transmission.”
Sceptic
something like this
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-07/nsw-reopen-worksites-for-construction-covid-vaccinations/100359114
The Guardian has just published an infographic that shows vaccinations by number. If the target to reach herd immunity is quoted as a percentage, why not publish progress as a percentage.
Surely they wouldn’t use spin to make things look better than they really are, not with Scotty from Marketing and Greg the lying Hunt in charge.
Former Queensland Liberal National Party premier Campbell Newman has announced he has joined the Australian Liberal Democrat Party and will run for the Senate at the next federal election.
C@t, later if not sooner ……
Good to see she’s given up on prematurely declaring greenshoots. There’s still a looooong way to go with this.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-08/nsw-records-262-covid19-cases/100359360
Hmmm
Sky News Australia
@SkyNewsAust
·
6h
Sky News Political Editor
@aclennell
says hairdressers and one-day a week face-to-face learning is in the roadmap to open up on August 29.
Hairdressers in the roadmap to open up on August 29 in Sydney
Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell says hairdressers and one-day a week face-to-face learning is in the roadmap to open up on August 29. “Numbers continue to rise in NSW but still Berejiklian…
skynews.com.au
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/hairdressers-in-the-roadmap-to-open-up-on-august-29-in-sydney/video/ff922ccf4c75a45d82b88e00230e64cb
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/08/06/morgan-53-5-46-5-to-labor-2/comment-page-33/#comment-3673410
They are not the only ones, https://apple.news/Ae6LKZtdySOyA3GcvWkaWZQ
The Age 08/08
Victoria should celebrate record vaccination rates as much as “doughnut days” of zero COVID-19 cases, experts say, as the Delta variant makes it more difficult to eliminate community transmission.
On Wednesday, the state recorded its first day without a case of COVID-19 since July 13, prompting a wave of doughnut day celebrations that recalled the revelry when Victoria’s second wave was crushed.
Premier Daniel Andrews welcomed the news by simply tweeting the word “zero”, while Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton posted an image of the infamous celebration by Ariarne Titmus’ coach at the Tokyo Olympics.
________________
They should not make that mistake again. Both looked foolish by midday Thursday.
Synchronised ball chucking!
Why is it “foolish ” to celebrate a donut day? All success is welcome unless you want Labor to fail.
Vic:
Retailers that require close personal contact opening in mere weeks. What could possibly go wrong?
If the NSW govt is considering that then clearly they haven’t learned a damned thing from this clusterf*ck of their own making!
Fess
Indeed.
Why are hairdressers so important to Gladys? Her hair often looks as if she washes it herself.
Steve777 @ #1585 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 11:32 am
I’m not sure chasing is allowed.
The one running away is fine, but the one chasing is clearly trying to breach social distancing requirements.
Lol Taylormade
The foolish thing for a political party/s to do was the lib/nats in Victoria , calling for Daniel Andrews to pick up the phone , to ring Gladys for help
What can one say?
Why is anyone even thinking about August 29?
After yesterday’s discussion and disagreement about the end of WWII I think we can all agree on
how WWI started ……………
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGxAYeeyoIc
Steve777 says:
Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 4:24 pm
Why is anyone even thinking about August 29?
—————
It will be longer if they are relying on the 50% fully vaccinated
Yesterday Hazzard claimed 22% are fully vaccinated and its 5% a week = so in 3 weeks 37% will be full vaccinated in NSW , 29th August well short of the 50%
Steve777 at 4:24 pm
August 29 is an excellent thing. Should anyone try to sell it you can immediately identify them as a shonk or a twit. It can be hard to tell at first glance 🙂
citizen says:
Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 4:22 pm
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/marjorie-taylor-greene-suggests-southerners-could-welcome-biden-s-police-n1276152
ASHINGTON — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., suggested at a recent Republican fundraiser in Alabama that Southerners could threaten President Joe Biden’s “police state friends” with guns if they show up at their homes asking about their coronavirus vaccination status.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 4:07 pm
That is why they need to take a gun. That way social distancing can be maintained. Cudgels and knives etc are right out of order. Gladdies Gestapo would be right onto you.
Ross Gittins: ”All those business people feeling the pain of NSW’s protracted lockdown – which seems not to be getting anywhere, with no end in sight – have no one to blame but the short-sighted, self-centred urgers on their own side.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/blame-the-lockdown-on-business-urgers-trying-to-wish-the-virus-away-20210807-p58gqm.html
Even if Gladys achieves her supposed target of ~50% fully vaccinated of the eligible population, it is really only ~40% of the total population anyway. That means 60% of all people in NSW WILL NOT be fully vaccinated. Talk about putting icing on a turd.
C@t
“I understand that the CMO and the Coalition are watching the UK to see how it fares with its No More Lockdowns, High Vaccination Rate and Living With the Delta Variant policy. Apparently there was an initial surge in numbers of infections but subsequent to that, to quote the person I listened to, ‘numbers have dropped off a cliff’.”
Yep, the Delta surge has peaked, but look at what is happening in the last week. Predicting that it will continue to fall would be foolish. If Australia were where the UK is now we’d be having 9,500 cases per day and 40 deaths per day (over 14,000 deaths per year – far more than even a really bad flu).
Of course, the UK has reached 57% fully vaccinated and a further 12% with one dose. Or equivalent to roughly 63% fully vaccinated (in terms of overall average effect). That’s 63% of the total population, or in Scomo’s rubbery figures, 80% of the ‘eligible’ population.
When does Australia get to that point? Xmas? Jan?
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-kingdom/
“Someone else made the point that it’s mid summer and it’s probably best to wait until they’ve been through winter to see how well that works out.”
Yep, its best to wait and see. It isn’t just the UK. It seems Malta is doing exceptionally well.
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/malta/
But then, they are up to 89% (of the total population) fully vaccinated.
The big question here is will we ever have the chance to wait and see, or will it be a moot point when NSW explodes in the coming weeks.
Well, it might be relevant to the other states, I guess.
Granny Anny says:
Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 3:27 pm
The Guardian has just published an infographic that shows vaccinations by number. If the target to reach herd immunity is quoted as a percentage, why not publish progress as a percentage.
Surely they wouldn’t use spin to make things look better than they really are, not with Scotty from Marketing and Greg the lying Hunt in charge.
______________________________
Hardly – but the Guardian has had to accept the reality that the vaccine roll-out is rapidly gathering steam.
It now says it will be completed by December – and is acknowledging that the roll-out goal is on target!
Australia got diddled by Europe on AZ supply and then ATAGI wrongly scared the horses on AZ – but its all closing beautifully.
Best,
Lars!
Yeah cud – you were predicting doom and gloom in the UK as I recall.
Best,
Lars!
SamraTV
Gladys is living in an alternate universe. I did the sums the other night but 50% (which is really 40%) amounts to about 30% fall in R(eff). By the end of this month, with the contact tracing system crumbling, that won’t bring us back down to under 1.0 .
Gladys has delivered the worst of both worlds.. skyrocketing case numbers AND a lockdown that goes into November at least.
Lars,
Fuck off.
Lars, if you imagine your little sign-off makes you look anything other than a prat, you are badly mistaken.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 4:51 pm
+103 deaths today.
30,000 cases~
Not something to be surprised about Lars Arse.
For the record!
According to Oxford Dictionaries, we started using “prat” to mean idiot in 1960, but before that, it was a 16th century word for buttocks. So when you call someone a prat, you’re also calling them an arse. This is another delightful description of someone who’s painfully stupid.
SamraTV
“Based on antibody testing of blood donors, 96.2% of the UK adult population now have antibodies to COVID-19 from either infection or vaccination.”
Yes, I forgot to mention that in reply to C@t. The UK vaccination levels are not the only factor. The official statistic is 6 million cases in the UK, but the real figure could be 2 to 3 times higher. That would account for a fair chunk of natural immunity on top of vaccination based immunity.
Again, the message for Australia is that if we duplicated the present level of vaccination in the UK we may not get the same results.
According to the table here, it’s 100 days to get to 56% of the population fully vaccinated (two doses), so around mid-November.
https://covidlive.com.au/australia
Cud, it is quite depressing to watch the utter BS coming from Gladys and Hazard in particular. I don’t understand their strategy. If it is merely to try and keep morale high, somewhat understandable, but not when they keep doing the same thing and expect a different result. My guess is they are just desperate and don’t really know what they are doing any more, which is dangerous for everyone.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1608 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 3:27 pm
BFD. 😐
Haven’t the people of Queensland learned their lesson with this guy yet!?!
UK cases have not “dropped off a cliff”. New cases rose from 2,500 to 50,000 after restrictions were relaxed (some increase just before then to be fair) and have dropped back a bit, but are still in the 20-30k cases a day.
Deaths are averaging around 100 a day, 103 yesterday.
Adjusting for population if we had the same in Australia it would be 40+ deaths each day.
Is this the type of “success” that Australia would be happy with?
citizen @ #1622 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 4:22 pm
What can one say?
That there are evil people in the world.
I mean, you would have to be to turn vaccination into a lethal political weapon.
For those who pooh poohed people saying The Plague is not an ‘airborne disease’ it seems even the experts are still quibbling, quibble quibble. Personally I’ll wait until the ‘judge’ makes a decision and place personal bets on both sides as far as precautions go.
.
Top scientists remain puzzled over how and why the virus spread
………………….So why are some scientists still sceptical…………..Even now, after nearly two years of scientific endeavour, which has given us multiple vaccines and drugs to fight coronavirus, we’re still not completely sure about how it spreads or how to stop it. It is why the mask debate rages on.
One of the biggest arguments between scientists is whether the virus is truly airborne, by which we mean that it is floating around in sufficient quantities to have a noticeable impact on infections.
A review in March by the University of Oxford and funded by the World Health Organisation (WHO) found that of the 67 studies looking at the role of airborne transmission, all were of low quality.
Almost half the studies did not detect viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) in the air at all. Even the Rotterdam ferret study relied on animals being placed in small, sealed boxes joined by a large tube, with a strong air flow passing between them, hardly an analogue for everyday life…………..
“The whole field is plagued by poor quality studies, by ideology-driven sweeping statements that cannot be backed up by science,” said Professor Tom Jefferson, of Oxford University, one of the authors on the review.
“How does it transmit? Most likely droplets and contact.”
The Oxford team also uncovered several papers which showed no evidence of airborne transmission, even when it might be expected.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-top-scientists-remain-puzzled-over-how-and-why-the-virus-spreads/2YBEBEQXSPRZM7GNW5M4M5JK5A/