Roy Morgan published results on Wednesday of its latest federal voting intention polling, as it does from time to time, in this case combining surveys conducted over the past two weekends from 2709 respondents. This shows Labor with its biggest lead of the term, from this or any other pollster: 53.5-46.5, out from 52.5-47.5 in the poll it published in mid-July. The Coalition and Labor are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively being down two and steady, while the Greens are up a point to 12.5% and One Nation is steady on 3%. These numbers have ticked the BludgerTrack poll aggregate a further 0.4% to Labor, who are now credited with a lead 52.4-47.6.
State breakdowns of the two-party vote are provided, showing Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (for a swing in their favour of about 3% compared with the 2019 election), 59.5-40.5 in Victoria (a swing of about 6.5%, and three points stronger for Labor than the previous poll), 55.5-44.5 in South Australia (a swing of about 5%) and 54-46 in Tasmania (a 2% swing to the Liberals, although the sample size here is particularly flimsy), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%) and 51.5-48.5 in Western Australia (a swing of about 4%, which is a fair bit more modest than other polling from WA recently).
I read that Cando Campbell Newman is running again for public office. I am a Qld public servant who watched many valuable co workers have long careers terminated. Cando and his miserable cohort constantly criticised us as bludgers on the public purse. This guy has spent nearly his whole life on the public purse and so did his parents for a reasonable period of their working lives. I seriously cannot believe what a f***ing hypocrite he is. I wish he would just go away and shut up.
Don’t get me wrong. I think that the government of Boris Johnson is playing fast and loose with people’s lives. I simply heard someone point to them as a kind of, Post Vaccination ersatz Sweden.
PaultTu
Correct. Cases in the UK peaked around July 22 and declined rapidly to about July 29, but now? Over the past week the curve has flattened out. Only time will tell where its headed.
Also the rate of death in the UK is best seen in terms of what it would look like in Australia on a yearly basis. An average hundred per day in the UK is about 45 per day in Australia.. or over 16,000 deaths per year in Australia.
Compare to the flu. Typically the flu kills 800 to 1,800 people in Australia per year. 5,000 would be a bad flu.
poroti says:
Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 5:18 pm
…”Even the Rotterdam ferret study relied on animals being placed in small, sealed boxes joined by a large tube, with a strong air flow passing between them, hardly an analogue for everyday life…………..”
Maybe it’s not such a bad analogue!
poroti
Does the professor comment on real-life studies involving humans? 🙂
PaulTu at 5:21 pm
🙂 Ah yes, the modern office and apartments.
But but but Scotty said that is insulting to Strayans.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-covid-live-updates-nsw-records-262-new-case-and-one-death-as-queensland-lockdown-lifts-victoria-records-11-new-cases-20210807-p58gpx.html
“How does it transmit? Most likely droplets and contact.”
My own, completely uninformed by rigorous experimentation pov, is that, depending on the size of the viral fragments, SARS CoV-2 has more or less aerosolised behaviour patterns. That is if what I have read, that the virus is not always whole virus but sometimes virus fragments, and that these fragments can add up to a viral load level that causes infection to occur, then I guess that it all depends on whether you come in contact with a virus fragment floating around in the air, then enough of them to add up to something, or a load of whole virus that has been deposited into the air or an air dispersal system such as an air conditioner, which then gets inhaled by you.
But then I could be wrong and often am. 🙂
Big W in Raymond Terrace was listed as an exposure site only yesterday, for an exposure that occurred 9 days earlier. This was for a delivery driver.
This is not “gold standard” is it?
As it happens, I barely avoided (by half an hour) being a “casual contact”.
Apparently they took Big W RT off the list today. I’d imagine the staff tested negative and they figured it was too long ago to make any real difference now. Plus, it generated a huge queue at RT respiratory clinic (testing).
Hello L’arse von TryHard, time for another refresher.
We are all awake to your concocted pustular discharges, and your unctuous simulated rapport, your smarmy fake sincerity, your studied spurious concern, your odious false empathy, your dissembled trumped-up compassion, your nauseating sham bonhomie. And, of course, your plain, delusional lack of brainpower.
As Cud so eloquently put it — Fuck off, l’arsehole.
C@tmomma t 5:27 pm
Until there is an ‘answer’ I’m happy to assume both are ‘right’.
C@t
It has to be viable viruses. Once their “capsule” is broken the genetic material quickly falls apart.
Yes, there is a threshold effect and it is about dose, but it has to be a dose of viable viruses. The viruses like to be sitting in a droplet because it prevents them from breaking up. But it can be a really tiny droplet because the virus itself is sub-micron.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 5:27 pm
“But then I could be wrong and often am. ”
Not something I expected to have acknowledged
PaulTu @ #1660 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 5:34 pm
Why is that? I’ve said it before. I admit, transparently, that I don’t know everything and defer to those who demonstrably do know more than me.
I’m very late to today’s posts, but this one caught my eye.
My reaction was the same as some on PB, that a taxi driver would be a nasty spreader. But I listened to the entire presser (available on youtube) and the CHO went on to say they she’s not *as* worried about the taxi side of his life, since the cab company knows exactly who and when and where everyone was and every one of them are being contacted right now. What she’s *really* concerned about is that he went to a sporting club (I think footy, but would have to re-listen) and that is the bigger problem. I got the impression the club’s members are being “contact swarmed”.
Mavis. Thanks for this concise summary of the man.
CC
NSW is the core of us. What you guys do, or more kindly, what happens to you, affects us all. Stay safe. We live right in the middle of the (hopefully) recent cluster of cases in Brisbane. One of us missed being a close contact by 30 minutes.
A technical question on Senate preferences.
I know the surplus votes of an elected candidate’s quota are discounted for the next recipient, based on surplus/number of votes for the elected candidate.
Does this discount carry through to the ‘full throw’ of preferences after all votes are in?
I’m not quite sure what you mean by “the ‘full throw’ of preferences after all votes are in”, but I suspect the answer you’re looking for is no — discounted preferences stay discounted to the end. The main technical issue in this is what happens when a ballot that’s already been discounted gets distributed as part of a surplus for a second time. Ideally you want the “inclusive weighted Gregory method”, which effectively means discounts get piled on top of discounts. But the mere “weighted Gregory method”, which applies in the Senate, doesn’t do that, so that ballots effectively increase in value if they form part of a surplus for a second time.
PrincePlanet
“I read that Cando Campbell Newman is running again for public office.”
I saw him (Newman) on the tellie. He mentioned something about the Anzacs at Gallipoli, and how “humbled” he is by the hundreds of supportive texts he’s received (he didn’t mention the thousands of texts telling him to fuck off).
I gather this Liberal Democrats party is like One Nation without the overt racism.
Kevin Rudd
@MrKRudd
Murdoch is quietly scrubbing incriminating Covid-19 misinformation videos from websites ahead of a grilling by the Senate on Friday. Dozens of videos have vanished with no correction or apology for spreading dangerous lies. But don’t worry; we have copies. #MurdochRoyalCommission
I gather this Liberal Democrats party is like One Nation without the overt racism.
It’s officially libertarian in both the economic and social senses.
Qld right will now have:
LNP
ON
LD
Katter
Clive
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
HH
May they fracture, and when they get there fracture some more.
Poroti,
Good article!
A lot of the argy bargy about “airborne” transmission is because your average punter does not realise that there is a continuum between “aerosol” (not significantly affected by *gravity in a ^short time-frame )”, and “droplet” (i.e significantly affected by gravity in a short time-frame).
*Note that airborne viral particles (including very small ones termed “aerosols”) colliding with large particles and sticking (e.g. to water vapour) increases the weight of the new heavier particle, and it suddenly tends to want to quickly find its place on the ground (as Aristotle (**who was a bugger for the bottle) opined).
^ Short time-frame is relative to place and situation – does the virus remain in the air long enough to encounter and infect another person?
So, my guess is that there are a variety of circumstances where people are infected, depending on local weather, traffic, airflow and all sorts of things.
This discussion is highly relevant to a few of my research areas, but particularly to “when does turbulence in the interstellar medium (the stuff between the stars) dominate the dynamics, preventing the collapse of material to form stars”?
Answer: It is when the particles are too small to provide much self-gravity, AND the energy around (interstellar gales and typhoons etc. ) combine to make things just too turbulent for everything to “settle out and collapse, like it damn well should”. Simplification, oh yes, but you get the gist.
** Using double bracket on a blog post – I will get my coat.
Gladys has the pips.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1424232102824869894
L’arse still thinks that a roll out of the vaccine of complete by Xmas is a big tick for ScoMo – or at least will be perceived to be so come election time.
Effectively ‘it will all blow over’ by then and labor’s ‘you had two jobs’ line will be rather stale.
About 2 months ago I probably would have agreed with him. At least that the Australian public is a fickle and as feckless as fuck for that to be a reasonable possibility.
The breadth and depth of the Berijiklian outbreak I think puts that hypothesis completely out of the reasonable category.
Sydney has been shut down for two long months already, with no realistic end in sight BUT not actually locked down fast enough or tight enough to be able to suppress delta so that it can emerge from this zombie land anytime before L’arse’s heroic projections about the completion of the vaccine lockdown. In effect a 6 month shut down of the economy and of people’s lives.
This particular shutdown has been worse because of the failure to bring back JobKeeper and increase jobseeker to the same levels as last year. This is killing retail, as folk simply ain’t spending as much this time around, whereas last year the uptake in delivers and take away items saw most retailers struggle through. This time around many businesses are going to shut for good. That is a political legacy issue of some duration.
We are looking down the barrel of death rates that are much higher than during ScoMo’s failed aged care disaster last year.
The Berijiklian outbreak has not been contained within greater sydney. This problem will only grow over time until the vaccination rates reach their ultimate target and some uniform basic and ongoing social distancing and hygiene protocols are adopted on an ongoing basis. Even that’s heroic because we still don’t know what future twists are in this pandemic: further variants of this particular corona virus might undo the vaccines on hand, might be even more contagious or deadly.
I can’t see Morrison’s failure to lead on securing the vaccine from multiple sources – especially to step up sooner than he did (if he ever has really stepped up) going away any time soon. It will in my view be a very live issue at the next election.
Oh, and once again, with feeling. L’arse: go fuck yourself.
For Zerlo
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/08/i-covered-hong-kong-for-decades-now-i-am-forced-to-flee-chinas-white-terror
Good to see police patrolling in Bondi, breaking up gatherings and issuing infringements. I went out for a walk earlier and as expected, the wet weather has kept people indoors.
Thanks William, this clears it up.
As HoldenHillbilly points out, we have a potential splintering of the Right in Qld, with some expected? leakage away from the LNP on Senate preferences – especially if LibDem/Newman campaigns on ‘the LNP has lost its way…’
And there is now fully 6 RW parties on the ticket, giving plenty of opportunity to leak people exhaust above the line.
So 3 LNP, 1 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 PHON may get disturbed enough to move 1 from LNP to ALP.
C@tMomma
Sounds pretty good to me.
I did not know that fragment of the viral RNA could contribute to viral load, but it does make sense.
I am also intrigued that COVID seems to have suddenly disappeared from he beachside suburbs. While local people I talk to suggest it is just that people around here do not care, and do not bother getting tested, you cannot hide hospital admissions and deaths.
So, the warmer conditions and higher humidity near the water may just be helping to dampen down spread around here.
But glad this is not my research topic. The confounding effects are horrific.
We also have a high rate of vaccinations, and most people can work from home.
But I am intrigued (and very grateful) that COVID never got into the Waterloo and Redfern “towers”. They look just like those in Fitzroy. Climate, or the two very different socioeconomic groups around here just never interacting?
Dunno.
Campbell Newman:
“Anthony Albanese represents outdated socialism that will saddle our kids with huge debt and destroy our culture with woke nonsense and red tape.”
The fact is the Newman government racked up debt at 17 billion during its time in office. All the assets sales was going to do was mostly payoff debt that Newman had already accumulated with the sale and the section left for repayment at 25 billion.
So basically Newman is a hypocrite at the end of the day. The assets sale was just basically paying the mortgage by selling the house. The asset sales didn’t go ahead, but the debt Newman accumulated remained.
Now that it has been reported that “some studies” found “no evidence” that airborne transmission is a risk with SARS-CoV-2, that some studies found no MRNA – even though some did and that some were inconclusive, while others were conclusive, that’s good enough for me.
I won’t be wearing masks from now on, at least until more definite studies come out, and bugger the consequences for me and those around me.
I assume the virus is well aware of these studies and will be refusing to infect anyone who has read the latest ambivalent literature.
Thank you.
The Far Right comprises people who by and large tend to be very suspicious and distrustful, sometimes to the point of paranoia. They see plots and conspiracies everywhere. It’s hardly surprising that their political groupings tend to fall apart.
Political Nightwatchman at 6:19 pm
And before that CanJoh saddled Brisvegas with a mountain of debt. He has form.
Everyone knows that Covid is an airborne disease.
It flies in from o/s, buggers off out of quarantine and then…
I believe there will be a Newspoll tonight and my feeling is that Albanese’s decisions to throw negative gearing and franking credit issues overboard will have an effect at the left end and they will translate to a temporary bump for the Greens. Morrison will continue to lose bark as more and more realise what an absolutely flawed human being he is. 53/47 ALP. Morrison to lose a point or two and the same for Albanese with Morrison’s drop being part of an ongoing trend. Albanese will continue to creep along with lower than optimum approval ratings but Morrison’s are a one way trip. The Brittany Higgins and Houston issues are sleepers and they will eventually hurt him badly. I’m not sure, but I think the Higgins case starts in early September (?).
I didn’t follow the minutiae of trends in our civilization under the Newman premiership but, for some reason, two of his decisions did go into the memory banks:
1. He defunded the premier’s literary prize.
2. He funded goat races.
poroti @ #1581 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 6:32 pm
And yet…..Labor can’t shake those misconceptions and automatic voter reflexes…..
Political Nightwatchman @ #1677 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 6:19 pm
Campbell Newman is there, it seems to me, now that Clive Palmer and his fat mouth have been relegated to a less than useful ability to hoover up votes and direct them and their preferences to the LNP, in order to do the same thing for the LNP. There’s no way he’ll get elected as the memory of his gross incompetence would still be relatively fresh in Quincelanders’ minds, so his preferences will be useful, but more importantly he is there now to just be another big fat loudmouth to enter into the public sphere in order to gaslight Albanese and Labor in Queensland on behalf of Morrison, the LNP and the Coalition.
Confessions
Shame they weren’t out patrolling Blacksmiths beach..
I am also intrigued that COVID seems to have suddenly disappeared from he beachside suburbs.
Salty sea spray from the windy weather we had last week dessicating the virus?
I can’t find any follow up to yesterday’s claims in Murdoch’s Oz that Morrison is begging Biden for Pfizer and getting nowhere (with the GOP and Greg Norman trying to make an issue out of it).
Normally you would expect some other media (ABC and Guardian perhaps) to repeat the story.
Perhaps I’ve missed some references in the media?
Not really..
The seaside suburbs are wealthier, get tested more, are vaccinated more, are better connected to vital information, have more jobs that can be done at home.. etc.. etc..
Sucks being poor.
citizen
“beatup” and “distraction” are words that come to mind.
C. Newman
I fear you’re right about that c@t. At *best* it’s non-stop noise, noise, noise. I’m no political strategist, but could a blanket dismal work, along the lines of “They don’t know what they’re doing. They don’t like each other. You can’t trust any of them.”?
Perhaps someone can ask Gladys tmrw….
Nancy Baxter MD PhD
@enenbee
·
3h
Replying to
@DrPieterPeach
It is August 8th and they have just put 12 more suburbs into strict lockdowns due to rising cases.
Why is the NSW government talking about loosening restrictions in 21 days when things are actually still getting worse???? Vaccines aren’t magic.
citizen @ #1691 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 7:01 pm
Have you checked The Australian? Shopping this morning I noticed a headline, wtte, Australia Begs Biden for Pfizer. It was in the biggest font available to fit on the front page. (I didn’t read on.)
edit: could a blanket dismal work => could a blanket dismissal work
I may be wrong but I think most of the polling for tonight’s Newspoll would have preceded the Christian Porter appointment and Brian Houston news. Even the vic lockdown?
boerwar
Well the Barkaldine Goat Races are unforgettable 🙂 ……………………………….. although I had forgotten about them until you reminded me.
“Have you checked The Australian? Shopping this morning I noticed a headline, wtte, Australia Begs Biden for Pfizer. It was in the biggest font available to fit on the front page. (I didn’t read on.)”
That was yesterday’s paper with the story (the Oz isn’t published on Sundays).