Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor scores its biggest two-party poll lead of the term from Roy Morgan, which records a particularly big blowout in Victoria.

Roy Morgan published results on Wednesday of its latest federal voting intention polling, as it does from time to time, in this case combining surveys conducted over the past two weekends from 2709 respondents. This shows Labor with its biggest lead of the term, from this or any other pollster: 53.5-46.5, out from 52.5-47.5 in the poll it published in mid-July. The Coalition and Labor are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively being down two and steady, while the Greens are up a point to 12.5% and One Nation is steady on 3%. These numbers have ticked the BludgerTrack poll aggregate a further 0.4% to Labor, who are now credited with a lead 52.4-47.6.

State breakdowns of the two-party vote are provided, showing Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (for a swing in their favour of about 3% compared with the 2019 election), 59.5-40.5 in Victoria (a swing of about 6.5%, and three points stronger for Labor than the previous poll), 55.5-44.5 in South Australia (a swing of about 5%) and 54-46 in Tasmania (a 2% swing to the Liberals, although the sample size here is particularly flimsy), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%) and 51.5-48.5 in Western Australia (a swing of about 4%, which is a fair bit more modest than other polling from WA recently).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,778 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. ”
    Mavissays:
    Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 11:20 am
    [‘The understanding that prime minister Scott Morrison is a cunning political player yet lacks the leadership skills that are needed to run a nation is becoming a common sentiment around the country these days.

    Labor MP Julian Hill helped popularise it when he charged the PM with being responsible for the short lockdown of Greater Melbourne in early June, for failing in his two pandemic responsibilities: the vaccine rollout and quarantine.

    “He is a very cunning politician,” Hill told reporters at Parliament House, “but he is a failure – an absolute failure – as a leader.”

    And this was before the current extended Sydney lockdown, as well as the recent brief shutdowns that have occurred in SA, WA, Queensland and again in Victoria.

    Morrison released the national plan for opening up, which is based on scientific modelling, last Friday. This relies on the vaccination of at least 70 percent of the population to make lockdowns less likely, which highlights that the PM was wrong when he said it was not a race to vaccinate in March.

    But the loss of faith in the PM is about much more than just his failing to coordinate the mass vaccination program promptly, rather it’s about his continuance to play the role of leader like it was a political chess game, when, in reality, those pawns on the board are real people.’]

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/in-a-time-of-mounting-crises-morrisons-political-cunning-does-not-the-leader-make/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-33
    ”

    A leader should have empathy and compassion for the people.
    A leader should be able to metaphorically hold the hose

  4. More on Sotrovimab

    From the FDA

    • Sotrovimab is not authorized for use in patients:

    o who are hospitalized due to COVID-19,OR

    o who require oxygen therapy due to COVID-19,OR

    o who require an increase in base line oxygen flow rate due to COVID-19(in those on chronic oxygen therapy due to underlying non-COVID-19 related comorbidity).

    • Benefit of treatment with sotrovimab has not been observed in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies may be associated with worse clinical outcomes when administered to hospitalized patients with COVID-19 requiring high flow oxygen or mechanical ventilation.

    So it looks like it needs to be very carefully targeted.

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to permit the emergency use of the unapproved product sotrovimab for the treatment of mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in adults and pediatric patients
    (12 years of age and older weighing at least 40 kg) with positive results of direct SARS-CoV-2 viral testing, and who are at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19, including hospitalization or death.

    As I read it and *speculate*, it’s a fine line between using a monoclonal (made in lab) antibody to add to the antibody response made naturally, and the suppression of the natural antibody response that extra antibodies might induce. So, use it early, but not later on when the clinical course turns nasty. It is given by infusion, so requires significant medical intrusion, and hospitalisation very likely. Some side effects are serious – anaphylaxis, and worsening fo the clinical course.

    FDA again, worth a read

    https://www.fda.gov/media/149534/download

  5. ”
    Laocoonsays:
    Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 11:28 am
    Ven
    Particularly since in answer to a (clarifying) question, those in the 12 suburbs can go elsewhere in Penrith LGA. Ridiculous. Significantly dents the whole purpose of this more restrictive regime.
    ”

    Early in the lockdown when they divided King St, Newtown, I know we are all on a slippery slope to big trouble.
    Piece meal isolation to this Pandemic did not work anywhere in the world and before someone (you know who are) points to Northern beaches we know that it can be isolated geographically.
    I think Gladys does not want to impose Stage 4 lockdown throughout greater Sydney because she does not want implement ‘Andrews’ solution. Call it ego or whatever you want to call it.

  6. boerwar

    ‘Is leaving home in order to shoot to death a rival gang member an essential job?’

    It depends on whether it is for one of Sydney’s ‘identities’ or for personal reasons. Personal reasons would not be considered an excuse to go out.

  7. ItzaDream

    who are at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19, including hospitalization or death

    From this bit it looks like , especially for young people, they would already have some pretty bad health problems.

  10. Ven

    I would add a goodly sprinkling of incompetence to that mix as well.

    because she does not want implement ‘Andrews’ solution

    Which sadly also probably dooms the idea of restricting Metropolitan Sydney access, which geographically is so (relatively) easy (albeit obviously inconvenient) to do, given the natural barriers of rivers, mountains

  11. I have just had one of those wonderful moments that life sometimes serves up.
    I spoke on the phone with an Indigenous woman, now a mother and a grandmother, whom I had taught in a remote Indigenous community as a child back in the 1970’s.
    We chatted about her life now and what had happened to her fellow students.
    When we opened the school the literacy rate in the community was well less than 10%.
    Her granddaughters are doing year 11 and HSC.

  12. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 12:07 pm

    boerwar

    ‘Is leaving home in order to shoot to death a rival gang member an essential job?’

    It depends on whether it is for one of Sydney’s ‘identities’ or for personal reasons. Personal reasons would not be considered an excuse to go out.’
    ___________________________
    What if they get themselves tested as part of a plan to keep the workplace open?

  13. From Daily Kos

    ‘COVID19 Official Figures Show 96% of UK Adults Have Antibodies and Vaccines Have Saved 62,700

    Based on antibody testing of blood donors, 96.2% of the adult population now have antibodies to COVID-19 from either infection or vaccination compared to 16.4% that have antibodies from infection alone. Over 95% of adults aged 30 or older have antibodies from either infection or vaccination. Seropositivity among those aged 17 to 29 has been rising for several weeks. The latest estimates indicate that the vaccination programme has directly averted over 66,900 hospitalisations. Analysis on the direct and indirect impact of the vaccination programme on infections and mortality, suggests the vaccination programme has prevented between 21.3 and 22.9 million infections and between 57,500 and 62,700 deaths’

    Source https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1008919/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_31.pdf

  18. Insiders has just finished in WA. I watched it for the first time in ages because of comments here made a couple of hours ago about Nikki Savva having words about Morrison. She did, but right at the very end so I had to sit through it all. (It was about Morrison and his mate Houston) Far too much of the programme was Greg the lying Hunt spewing meaningless numbers, and then most discussion revolved around COVID-19.

    I get that COVID-19 is a big deal, especially for T’othersiders at the moment, but surely there is much more that is worthy of detailed analyses. Perhaps much less politician spinners and a bit more insider analyses of a wide range of issues would make it worth watching. It will be ages before I tune in again.

    Incidentally, I made a similar comment to this on the Guardian blog and it was deleted immediately. Is commenting on the the relationship between Morrison and Houston legally risky?

  22. Granny Annoy

    Incidentally, I made a similar comment to this on the Guardian blog and it was deleted immediately. Is commenting on the the relationship between Morrison and Houston legally risky?

    Financially risky I suspect. There is the increasing tendency of the right to take action for defamation on flimsy grounds that need to be settled out of court against those who cannot afford silks at 10 paces.

    In this case what you wrote seems harmless, but maybe they have.policy of” if it mentions Houston, it gets deleted”.

    I also notice that the Guardian try not to criticise the Federal government too directly, even if the odd individual article does. I suspect the Guardian readership included a lot of Malcolm Turnbull Liberals. They do not want Morrison, but they would like an economically conservative government. Zahli Steggal and Kerryn Phelps are who they drift to – people who would support a conservative government, except for issues such as climate change and refugees.

  23. Hope this is not getting out of control

    Armidale Secondary College student confirmed as third positive COVID-19 case in LGA
    It brings the coronavirus cluster in the Armidale local government area to three, following Saturday’s revelation two people had contracted COVID-19.

    The teenage girl is a household contact of the other two, while a fourth person is the home is yet to return a positive case.

    —————

  24. All I want is to be out of lockdown by the time the PB Sydney Bludgers Spring Centennial Park Get Together is due to happen!

  26. Griff

    Awesome – thanks much 🙂

    And with the source of 66% (!!!!) under investigation, a record high for this outbreak, little wonder they moved it from its previous pride of place in the second paragraph of the release.

    Incredible

  29. ‘The groundswell to elect independent candidates is growing among Liberal-National Party voters in seats across the country.’
    Yeah right, Liberal leaning independents.
    Why don’t they just vote for the ALP, a competent alternative to the current rabble who also have a truckload of experience nation building?
    I mean West Australian conservatives have done it.

  30. mundo,

    Maybe they read and take notice of your constant shitcanning of Labor people and strategies. Maybe your self indulgent wankery is having an effect.

  31. So why did the chick cross the road ? Some opinions on that..
    .
    DONALD TRUMP: I’ve been told by my many sources, good sources – they’re very good sources – that the chicken crossed the road. All the Fake News wants to do is write nasty things about the road, but it’s a really good road. It’s a beautiful road. Everyone knows how beautiful it is.

    JOE BIDEN: Why did the chicken do the…thing in the…you know the rest.

    GEORGE W. BUSH: We don’t really care why the chicken crossed the road. We just want to know if the chicken is on our side of the road or not. The chicken is either with us or against us. There is no middle ground here.

    DICK CHENEY: Where’s my gun?

    BILL CLINTON: I did not cross the road with that chicken.

    AL GORE: I invented the chicken.

    JOHN KERRY: Although I voted to let the chicken cross the road, I am now against it! It was the wrong road to cross, and I was misled about the chicken’s intentions. I am not for it now, and will remain against it.

    AL SHARPTON: Why are all the chickens white?

    DR. PHIL: The problem we have here is that this chicken won’t realize that he must first deal with the problem on this side of the road before it goes after the problem on the other side of the road. What we need to do is
    help him realize how stupid he is acting by not taking on his current problems before adding any new problems.

    ANDERSON COOPER: We have reason to believe there is a chicken, but we have not yet been allowed to have access to the other side of the road.

    NANCY GRACE: That chicken crossed the road because he’s guilty! You can see it in his eyes and the way he walks.

    PAT BUCHANAN: To steal the job of a decent, hardworking American.

    DR SEUSS: Did the chicken cross the road? Did he cross it with a toad? Yes, the chicken crossed the road, but why it crossed I’ve not been told.

    ERNEST HEMINGWAY: To die in the rain, alone.

    GRANDPA: In my day we didn’t ask why the chicken crossed the road. Somebody told us the chicken crossed the road, and that was good enough for us.

    ARISTOTLE: It is the nature of chickens to cross the road.

    ALBERT EINSTEIN: Did the chicken really cross the road, or did the road move beneath the chicken?

    COLONEL SANDERS: Did I miss one?

  33. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 1:09 pm

    boerwar at 12:18 pm
    As long as they use the COVIDSafe app. it will be OK.’
    _________________________________
    haha

  35. ‘Is leaving home in order to shoot to death a rival gang member an essential job?’

    * Provided that neither party travels more than 10 km from home (and don’t leave their LGA if in an “area of concern”)
    * Provided that both parties wear a mask if indoors
    * Provide that both parties stay 1.5 metres apart

    It might also count as “exercise” if parties walk to the confrontation or if running and chasing is involved.

  39. Steve,

    If stopped at a roadblock would the assassin need to produce their tools of trade to verify they are on the way to a job or would a purchase order suffice?

  40. Hi there BK. Going well thanks.

    No, my period of transportation has ended, though back in plague central Sydney! Though right now, Perth is looking not unattractive. Just following the stay-at-home orders

    Aside from your sleep-in today, trust you are likewise well 😉

  43. Poroti
    Victoria is right about the situation in Victoria because the construction union is very active and union membership is very high.

  46. Small snippet from the Guardian blog but interesting in the current context.

    Andrews says the proposed dedicated quarantine facility in Victoria is running ahead of schedule. He said the commonwealth are leading the construction, in partnership with Victoria. Victoria will run the facility and hopes it will have 500 beds up and running by the end of the year.

    It will be done in stages. I have had a number of conversations with the prime minister about this and we have urged all of our officials both at the federal and state level to do whatever is necessary to get this open as fast as possible.

  47. Late arrival today, can anyone confirm the following?

    NSW is proposing to relax lockdown ( if that is even possible given its a mockdown) especially in the building trade.

    When NSW gets to 50 ,60 , 70 or 80 % ( take your pick) & if you are tradie that has been vaccinated ( once even ) you can leave a locked down LGA for work.

    The tradies will become a vector for spread of Covid

    NSW isn’t going to count infection rate but hospitalisation rate instead to determine easing of the lockdown.

    This will result in rapid increase of community transmission, which isn’t going to be counted.. easing lockdown conditions will therefore proceed faster.

    The other states will close their borders & enforce closure with armed riot squads.

  48. Sceptic,

    Nothing confirmed, but that is the gist of the presser today. Softening us up. The strategy has shifted 🙁

  49. I didn’t know the WA Bar was Bolshie? Here they are telling Sarah Henderson exactly what they think about her…


  50. Can’t think of anything to say on this..

    53s ago
    00:30
    NSW Health has also released an updated list of exposure sites (i.e. places that were visited by a confirmed Covid-19 case).

    Amongst the venues of concern is Nextra Newsagency at Charlestown. If you were there between 3.15 – 3.22pm, or 4.18 – 4.28pm on Thursday 29 July, you must immediately get tested and isolate for 14 days.

    Other venues include Barber Industries in Kotara between 1pm – 2pm on Thursday 5 August.

    It also appears as though an employee at Ampol Service Statoin at Maryland has tested positive for Covid-19. If you were there between 4.30am and 10am on Friday 6 August, you must also get tested and isolated for 14 days from the date of exposure, even if you return a negative test result.

    But locals are criticising the decision to shut down suburbs, rather than the entire Penrith LGA, saying that this overcomplicates the restrictions.

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