Family First the second

Fragmentation on the right continues apace, with even former Labor folk now joining in. Also: a new poll records a big thumbs-down for the weekend’s lockdown protests.

Miscellaneous developments of the week so far:

• Former South Australian state Labor MPs Tom Kenyon and Jack Snelling have quit their former party over “moves to restrict religious freedom” and announced their intention to reactivate the Family First party and field candidates at the state election next March. The original Family First was folded into Australian Conservatives when Cory Bernardi joined it in 2016 and wound up at his behest after its failure at the 2019 federal election. Kenyon and Snelling have long been associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association sub-faction of the Right, which is in turn associated with Catholicism and social conservatism, and includes among its number the party’s state leader, Peter Malinauskas. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports this has the approval of party co-founder Andrew Evans; presumably this explains it obtaining the old party’s database of 6000 supporters, as reported by David Penberthy of The Australian. Whereas the old party consistently directed preferences to the Liberals, Snelling has ruled out preference deals with either major party.

• In other party split news, Peta Credlin writes in The Australian that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta for the Liberals from 1996 to 2004 but is these days noted as a staple of Sky News after dark, “could head the Liberal Democrats’ NSW Senate ticket”. Earlier reportage on the matter said only that Cameron was involved with the party’s strategy and candidate recruitment.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports Matt Burnell, an official with the Right faction Transport Workers Union, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for its safe northern Adelaide seat of Spence, which will be vacated with Nick Champion’s move to state politics. Burnell reportedly scored 88 union delegate votes and 68 state conference delegate votes, each amounting to a third of the total, to just two and seven respectively for rival candidate Alice Dawkins, daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The rank-and-file membership ballot that made up the remaining third went 140-42 to Burnell.

Peter Law of The West Australian reports that first-term Liberal MP Vince Connelly, whose seat of Stirling is being abolished, “looks certain to contest Cowan, which is held by Labor’s Anne Aly”. By my reckoning, the seat has a post-redistribution margin of 1.5%, making it a seemingly unlikely prospect for the Liberals at a time when polls are pointing to a Labor swing in the state upwards of 10%.

Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports a poll conducted on Monday by Utting Research from 1600 respondents in New South Wales found only 7% supported Saturday’s lockdown protests, with fully 83% opposed. The poll also suggested Scott Morrison’s standing is continuing to tumble, with 37% satisfied and 57% dissatisfied (the state breakdown in last fortnight’s Resolve Strategic poll had it at 46% apiece). By contrast, Gladys Berejiklian maintained 56% approval and 33% disapproval, while the state’s chief health officer, Kerry Chant, recorded 70% approval.

• Emma Dawson, the executive director of the Per Capita think tank who appeared set to ran as Labor’s candidate against Adam Bandt in Melbourne, has announced her withdrawal. Dawson said this was for “personal and professional reasons”, although it followed shortly upon her criticism of Labor’s announcement that it would not rescind tax cuts for high income earners if elected.

• Craig Emerson on election timing in the Financial Review:

The December quarter national accounts are scheduled for release on March 2, 2022. Morrison might feel confident that the economy will bounce back in the December quarter from the September quarter’s negative result. But would it be wise to take a chance on a double-dip recession being announced during a federal election campaign? That would be a catastrophe for the Morrison government: marked down for its refusal to accept responsibility for quarantine, presiding over the slowest vaccine rollout in the Western world, and forfeiting any claim to be superior economic managers … But an April or May election would face the same risks, since the March quarter national accounts would not be released until after the election must be held … A late-February election might be the best bet, though the federal campaign would overlap with that of the South Australian state election scheduled for March 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,483 comments on “Family First the second”

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  1. Asha says:
    Sunday, August 1, 2021 at 6:18 pm

    ————-

    Censoring fake news is not a threat to democratic process.

    You all should know that.

    Fake news is dangerous to society. A public health risk.

  2. Barney,

    Rex: So a scientist must share your world view otherwise they’re not really scientist.

    Yep, so Barney would not rate me, or some of the very eminent scientists I know who are members of the ALP. Including some very prominent climate science. Grrr.

    Cannot name them of course, because there are people who will go after them.

  3. Kevin Rudd:

    Let today’s deployment of Murdoch’s far-right programming across regional free-to-air TV be a lesson: anybody who now maintains ‘nobody watches Sky News’ has zero idea what they’re talking about.
    Murdoch is determined to implement the Fox News political model through Sky News in Australia. Fox is the driving force of News Corp profits, and has given him untold leverage over the Republican Party, downplaying covid and fanning opposition to vaccines.
    Here are some facts from Murdoch’s own study on Sky News:
    1) Every month, one third of the Australian population accesses Sky News. The average Australian accesses the news on 2 platforms.
    2) Foxtel, another Murdoch-controlled monopoly, barely makes up a quarter of the network’s viewership. The bulk of Murdoch’s Sky News viewing happens on YouTube and Facebook — platforms renowned in the US for far-right radicalisation.
    3) Sky News has an outsized focus on engaging younger audiences—and it’s working. Most online Sky News viewers are millennials and Gen Z, not their parents/grandparents.
    4) Starting today, Murdoch runs Australia’s only commercial 24-hour current affairs channel on free-to-air.
    What Murdoch fears most is Sky News being exposed too early for cultivating a far-right audience around “culture war”, anti-vaxx and climate denial. Americans didn’t realise Fox News was a problem until it controlled the country’s political destiny.
    If Sky News can continue this model, we’ll see a large minority of Australians divorced from reality & dragged into a parallel universe of far right fake news. You can see this already, when their supporters cheer at a young woman being shot in the head. (https://www.theguardian.com/…/thousands-of-youtube…)
    What do we do? The first thing is to be alert to the problem, tell your friends and family that if they see content from Murdoch’s Sky News then it’s probably propaganda. Second, sign up to support a #MurdochRoyalCommission at MurdochRC.com

  4. Mavis:

    Oh, my hairline had already reached the Howard-circa-1996 threshold by the time I hit thirty, it’s much too late for me now.

  5. ACMA Free to Air rules and guidelines state that:
    https://www.acma.gov.au/publications/2019-10/rules/commercial-television-industry-code-practice-2015

    3.4 Impartiality
    3.4.1 In broadcasting a news Program, a Licensee must:
    a) present news fairly and impartially;
    b) clearly distinguish the reporting of factual material from commentary and analysis.
    3.4.2 Nothing in this Section 3 requires a Licensee to allocate equal time to different points of view, or to include every aspect of a person’s viewpoint, nor does it preclude a critical examination of or comment on a controversial issue as part of a fair report on a matter of public interest.
    3.4.3 Current Affairs Programs are not required to be impartial and may take a particular stance on issues.

  6. Douglas and Milko @ Sunday, August 1, 2021 at 5:57 pm

    Thank you for the prompt to reflect! Yes, Harris Park is wonderful. Sydney’s very own Little India. Post lockdown, check out Old Toongabbie for Sri Lankan. Also worth a wander.

  7. Zerlo:

    Fake news is dangerous to society. A public health risk.

    I don’t disagree, especially when it comes to stuff like Covid and vaccines, but it’s not the government’s place to make that call.

    Do you seriously want people like Morrison, Dutton, and Barnaby deciding what is and isn’t “fake news”???

  8. Asha says:
    Sunday, August 1, 2021 at 6:33 pm

    – The regulators job – ACMA.
    – The government to enforce the ACMA.

  9. P1,

    You really are just being silly now:

    Her Monash research profile

    Biography

    Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah

    Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah MBBS (HONS), FRACP, PhD is an infectious diseases and general physician at Alfred Health with an interest in artificial intelligence and health services research. Michelle has led the largest body of work on applied AI for the diagnosis, management and prevention of invasive fungal infections in haematology patients. She is the founder of FungalAi (https://www.fungalai.com), a multimodal application combining text and image processing, that aims to make surveillance of fungal infections feasible for a range of quality improvement and research activities in hospitals. She is a member of the data monitoring and safety committee of the Australasian Myeloma Research Consortium, the peak body responsible for clinical trials in myeloma in 2019. Her peer review responsibilities include appointment to JAMA Network Open as a paid statistical and methods reviewer. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Michelle co-founded Healthcare Workers Australia (https://healthcareworkersaustralia.com), a grassroots advocacy movement dedicated to improving the occupational safety of healthcare workers. She has published on work, health and safety issues for health care workers, made numerous media appearances including an appearance on QandA (ABC) in Feb 2021, 4Corners (May 2021) and written for The Australian newspaper.

    And I can tell you, no university lets you put up untrue shit on your research profile.

    She is also a Consultant physician general medicine & infectious diseases at Alfred Health.

    Cited by
    All Since 2016
    Citations 1214 903
    h-index 19 17
    i10-index 23 21

    Those are quite impressive stats for someone who is primarily a clinician.

    I would say your hatred of the Labor party is skewing your world view.

  10. If short, sharp lockdowns are seen to be the way to go then Gladys and her endless current lockdown aren’t going to be doing Morrison any favours.

    This one has the makings of going for many months yet.

  11. Don’t get me wrong, Murdoch’s influence is absolutely a blight on our democracy, and I fully support the calls for a royal commission. But, IMO, more government control over news media isn’t the answer.

  12. Two days after Morrison’s latest vaccine foray and the plan is already rubbished by experts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-targets-are-too-low-health-experts-warn-road-map-has-herd-immunity-shortfall-20210731-p58epu.html

    I had a Zoom lunch call with family and my cousin’s wife pointed out that 70% of the adult population is barely half of the total population (56% according to the Grattan Insitute), which is not sufficient coverage before allowing international travellers into the country.

  13. GG:

    With any luck I’ll be home by then where at least we have a competent, adult government prepared to make the hard decisions to protect the health of the state.

  14. P1,

    I know you are going through a really hard time, and it seems that some of your problems may have been caused by the ALP, but I cannot stand by while a fellow scientist is smeared unfairly. So apologies for coming out with all guns blazing.

  15. Douglas and Milko @ #2311 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 6:39 pm

    I would say your hatred of the Labor party is skewing your world view.

    I don’t hate the Labor party. But I do hate people who tells blatant untruths. Or do you also believe the AZ vaccine has “failed in terms of efficacy” and is an “experiment” on the population?

    I honestly can’t understand Labor partisans. You seem prepared to deny reality in support of the party 🙁

  16. Douglas and Milko @ #2319 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 6:48 pm

    P1,

    I know you are going through a really hard time, and it seems that some of your problems may have been caused by the ALP, but I cannot stand by while a fellow scientist is smeared unfairly. So apologies for coming out with all guns blazing.

    I think you need to review what was actually said by Michelle Ananda-Rajah. Perhaps she didn’t mean it since she subsequently recanted, but I think it is significant that she only recanted after she was selected as an ALP candidate.

    In my view she crossed a line that Norman Swan never did.

  17. P1,

    Yeah, you hate yourself then!

    Because, you’re always happy to post blatantly hate filled untruths about Labor and Labor people.

    You fool no one, champ.

  18. Douglas and Milko @ #1379 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 6:39 pm

    P1,

    You really are just being silly now:

    Her Monash research profile

    Biography

    Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah

    Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah MBBS (HONS), FRACP, PhD is an infectious diseases and general physician at Alfred Health with an interest in artificial intelligence and health services research. Michelle has led the largest body of work on applied AI for the diagnosis, management and prevention of invasive fungal infections in haematology patients. She is the founder of FungalAi (https://www.fungalai.com), a multimodal application combining text and image processing, that aims to make surveillance of fungal infections feasible for a range of quality improvement and research activities in hospitals. She is a member of the data monitoring and safety committee of the Australasian Myeloma Research Consortium, the peak body responsible for clinical trials in myeloma in 2019. Her peer review responsibilities include appointment to JAMA Network Open as a paid statistical and methods reviewer. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Michelle co-founded Healthcare Workers Australia (https://healthcareworkersaustralia.com), a grassroots advocacy movement dedicated to improving the occupational safety of healthcare workers. She has published on work, health and safety issues for health care workers, made numerous media appearances including an appearance on QandA (ABC) in Feb 2021, 4Corners (May 2021) and written for The Australian newspaper.

    And I can tell you, no university lets you put up untrue shit on your research profile.

    She is also a Consultant physician general medicine & infectious diseases at Alfred Health.

    Cited by
    All Since 2016
    Citations 1214 903
    h-index 19 17
    i10-index 23 21

    Those are quite impressive stats for someone who is primarily a clinician.

    I would say your hatred of the Labor party is skewing your world view.

    So nothing new in Player One Land then?

  19. Bushfire Bill is going through a hard time. With equanimity. Player One, seems to just be suffering what many, may others are.

  20. The Lib Opp in Vic do nothing except find businesses to complain about the lockdowns and restrictions. They never seem to provide any alternative solutions to the pandemic.

  21. A big shout out to BB, Doyley, Mavis, possibly OC, and to any and all other Bludgers who are doing it tough for various reasons.
    Best wishes and kind thoughts to you all.

  22. Mexicanbeemer @ #2325 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:05 pm

    Player One
    All testing has shown AZ to be less effective so i’m not getting the problem.

    Jeanette Young has been a bit critical of it as well. My suspicion is that it doesn’t suppress the viral load enough to have a larger effect on preventing transmission. This may come out a bit down the track if we have to rely on boosters before we can open up safely and protect those unable those unable to be vaccinated.

    Of course no one is going to come out strongly against it because we do want the maximum number of people protected against serious disease

  23. The Chaser
    @chaser
    “We have been silenced” says media organisation that owns 81 newspapers, 21 magazines, 45 TV stations, a cable monopoly, and 8 major news websites, after their YouTube is given a 7 day suspension

  24. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/08/01/national/norihisa-tamura-coronavirus-risks/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1mQodS7jIsOpBCovP5jwNTe1aGo1zvNJ39FvK10zhJ7turCojDH3W-VcU#Echobox=1627804542

    Health minister Norihisa Tamura on Sunday urged the public to avoid activities with a high risk of coronavirus infection, noting that the virus is becoming more contagious.

    He made the request during a television program just as the government’s COVID-19 state of emergency, which currently covers Tokyo and the southernmost prefecture of Okinawa, is set to be expanded to three prefectures neighboring the capital — Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa — and Osaka Prefecture from Monday. The state of emergency will run until the end of August.

    Tamura said that the highly transmissible delta variant is responsible for the current rapid spread of infections in Japan.

  25. I wonder if Blair sleeps at night? He most likely does. Such was the calibre of Labour at the time, getting into bed with, for example, Gaddafi, the no-good Bushs.

  26. Player One @ #2321 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 6:49 pm

    I don’t hate the Labor party. But I do hate people who tells blatant untruths. Or do you also believe the AZ vaccine has “failed in terms of efficacy” and is an “experiment” on the population?

    It is less effective. You’re nitpicking over how much less effective something has to be before it can be termed a “failure” relative to something else. But that’s not really the relevant portion or intent of the original remarks.

    As for “experiment”, what happened in the UK pretty much was. And is. A lot of things were tried (shorter intervals between doses, mixing different vaccines, etc.) with little (if any) prior research and significantly less scientific rigor and regulatory oversight than would normally be applied. Because desperate times (and incompetent, covid-dismissing governance), and all that. So that remark seems fair enough, too, unless it was made specifically in relation to Australia.

  27. boerwar

    Smiles.
    No, I’m fine. Just a little bored. Don’t tell C@t but I have absolutely no interest in the Olympics and I can’t wait for normal TV service to be resumed.

  28. D&M, I’ve had three goes at this …. each deleted …. we could talk forever about my thoughts on the evolution of Sydney, shaped by its geography, transportation of the times (boats, to trains, trams, cars for every man), the waning British colonial influences in architecture and planning, poor planning, the zeitgeist of the times, wealth distribution and where it was deployed, major mile stones like the opening of the bridge and the fabulousness of the north shore coming into play, the waves of immigrations, the creep along the railways, the hugging of the harbour and the waterways…. it’s the stuff of volumes.

    Nothing more obvious I suppose than what was once inner city Victorian slums become cheap to interesting now to too desirable (Paddington), and what was once the first garden suburb (pre bridge) Haberfield now razed by a motorway, house block size shrinking, large rambling three generation between war bungalows now blocks of units , and as transport collapses under its own weight, the inner city is refashioned, the outer burbs self limiting by distance, and the sprawl to realise the diminishing own home dream reaches almost ridiculous proportions of cookie cutter MacMansions of zero environmental awareness plugged into air-conditioning and three car garages.

    The template was never written or fixed. It was and is an experiment. As isn’t everything?

    (Imagine if the French had got here two days earlier.)

  29. ‘Lizzie says:
    Sunday, August 1, 2021 at 7:23 pm

    boerwar

    Smiles.
    No, I’m fine. Just a little bored. Don’t tell C@t but I have absolutely no interest in the Olympics and I can’t wait for normal TV service to be resumed.’
    ___________________________
    Mum’s the word.

  30. Jeebus, Covid could have carved through UQ this week:
    https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/contact-tracing#QLD

    For those who don’t know Brisbane’s geography, Indooroopilly SHS, Ironside SS and St Peters are very close by, and many of the staff and students at UQ have children/siblings there or partners/parent working there. BGGS and BBGS have city-wide catchments. All are big schools – Ironside might be the biggest primary school in Qld. And this week, UQ was as busy as I’ve seen it in two years.

    This still has serious potential to explode.

  31. Mavis: “My stones, if you take this vid as gospel, most leading men were camp, even old Randolph Scott. Next, they’ll be accusing George Reeves. I say leave them in peace, it was obviously a difficult stage they were going through – the casting couch not limited to the gentler sex:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj3mILR4h2U

    No astounding revelations in that video, although I think that Gable, Brando and Dean were clearly bisexual. The relationship between Cary Grant and Randolph Scott is old news, as is most of the rest of the stuff there. One can also easily assemble a list of famous actresses who have been alleged to have been closet lesbians (eg, Doris Day and Katherine Hepburn, although I’m dubious about the claims regarding both).

    Then there are English examples such as Alan Bates, who kept his homosexuality secret his entire life until it was revealed after his death in a biography authorised by his family which was aptly entitled “Otherwise Engaged.”

    I remember once seeing an interview with Kevin Kline about a movie in which he played a homosexual character and he was asked if he found that difficult. His answer was “Hollywood is the sort of place where most people have been gay at some time or other: for all you know, I might have been.”

  32. ItzaDream and Douglas and Milko: your dialogue about (inter alia) Eastlakes and garden suburbs brings to my mind forgotten images of the remarkable Daceyville, which I had occasion to visit when I lived in Sydney too many decades ago.

    How is Daceyville these days? I hope it’s received some sort of heritage protection as a remarkable early example of systematic town planning in Australia: in some ways a bit of a precursor of inner Canberra.

    Thanks for jogging my memory: I’ll take a detour there on one of my future trips to Sydney (when that’s allowed again: in 2023 or whenever)

  33. So Morrison didn’t emerge in public today to bask in Australia’s Olympic glory?

    Surely he could have re-re-re-re-re announced his pathway to Covid freedom?

  34. Itza

    D&M, I’ve had three goes at this …. each deleted …. we could talk forever about my thoughts on the evolution of Sydney, shaped by its geography, transportation of the times (boats, to trains, trams, cars for every man), the waning British colonial influences in architecture and planning, poor planning, the zeitgeist of the times, wealth distribution and where it was deployed, major mile stones like the opening of the bridge and the fabulousness of the north shore coming into play, the waves of immigrations, the creep along the railways, the hugging of the harbour and the waterways…. it’s the stuff of volumes.

    Nothing more obvious I suppose than what was once inner city Victorian slums become cheap to interesting now to too desirable (Paddington), and what was once the first garden suburb (pre bridge) Haberfield now razed by a motorway, house block size shrinking, large rambling three generation between war bungalows now blocks of units , and as transport collapses under its own weight, the inner city is refashioned, the outer burbs self limiting by distance, and the sprawl to realise the diminishing own home dream reaches almost ridiculous proportions of cookie cutter MacMansions of zero environmental awareness plugged into air-conditioning and three car garages.

    The template was never written or fixed. It was and is an experiment. As isn’t everything?

    (Imagine if the French had got here two days earlier.)

    Love it!

    Hopefully we will one day have the chance to talk these things over, although September is looking dicey.

  35. meher baba @ #2340 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:39 pm

    ItzaDream and Douglas and Milko: your dialogue about (inter alia) Eastlakes and garden suburbs brings to my mind forgotten images of the remarkable Daceyville, which I had occasion to visit when I lived in Sydney too many decades ago.

    How is Daceyville these days? I hope it’s received some sort of heritage protection as a remarkable early example of systematic town planning in Australia: in some ways a bit of a precursor of inner Canberra.

    Thanks for jogging my memory: I’ll take a detour there on one of my future trips to Sydney (when that’s allowed again: in 2023 or whenever)

    D&M should hop in here. But know one thing – it won’t be as you remember!

  36. Dandy Murray: “This still has serious potential to explode.”

    I bloody well hope not. My partner is on the Sunshine Coast ATM and I would like to see her again one of these days.

  37. Douglas and Milko @ #2343 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:41 pm

    Itza

    D&M, I’ve had three goes at this …. each deleted …. we could talk forever about my thoughts on the evolution of Sydney, shaped by its geography, transportation of the times (boats, to trains, trams, cars for every man), the waning British colonial influences in architecture and planning, poor planning, the zeitgeist of the times, wealth distribution and where it was deployed, major mile stones like the opening of the bridge and the fabulousness of the north shore coming into play, the waves of immigrations, the creep along the railways, the hugging of the harbour and the waterways…. it’s the stuff of volumes.

    Nothing more obvious I suppose than what was once inner city Victorian slums become cheap to interesting now to too desirable (Paddington), and what was once the first garden suburb (pre bridge) Haberfield now razed by a motorway, house block size shrinking, large rambling three generation between war bungalows now blocks of units , and as transport collapses under its own weight, the inner city is refashioned, the outer burbs self limiting by distance, and the sprawl to realise the diminishing own home dream reaches almost ridiculous proportions of cookie cutter MacMansions of zero environmental awareness plugged into air-conditioning and three car garages.

    The template was never written or fixed. It was and is an experiment. As isn’t everything?

    (Imagine if the French had got here two days earlier.)

    Love it!

    Hopefully we will one day have the chance to talk these things over, although September is looking dicey.

    Our September 50 year reunion just got cancelled!

  38. Citizen
    Morrison made a call to the family of a swimmer just when the media happened to be there but their reply wasn’t shown.

  39. Thanks to whoever it was on here who posted the fact that sprinter Rohan Browning, like Ariarne Titmus, is the offspring of a journo: in this case ABC journo Elizabeth Jackson (not to be confused with the late Liz Jackson, mother of the talented and beautiful politician Rose Jackson). I used to know Elizabeth a bit when she had a programme on Radio Satan (ie, ABC 666 Canberra) back in the 199os: she seemed really nice.

    Looking at footage of Rohan on Channel 7 just now, he is definitely a chip off the old block: he has inherited his mother’s penetrating eyes.

    You’d have to think he’s a realistic chance of breaking 10 seconds and making the final tonight. Which, given the global competitiveness of men’s sprinting, would actually be a greater achievement than that of any of our gold medal-winning swimmers.

  40. Good luck to the pair of you, MB.

    You probably know this, but the Sunny Coast is where they think the unlinked transmission occurred. Like Jennette said earlier today, no-one knows for sure where the virus is yet. Fingers crossed and masks on!

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