Family First the second

Fragmentation on the right continues apace, with even former Labor folk now joining in. Also: a new poll records a big thumbs-down for the weekend’s lockdown protests.

Miscellaneous developments of the week so far:

• Former South Australian state Labor MPs Tom Kenyon and Jack Snelling have quit their former party over “moves to restrict religious freedom” and announced their intention to reactivate the Family First party and field candidates at the state election next March. The original Family First was folded into Australian Conservatives when Cory Bernardi joined it in 2016 and wound up at his behest after its failure at the 2019 federal election. Kenyon and Snelling have long been associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association sub-faction of the Right, which is in turn associated with Catholicism and social conservatism, and includes among its number the party’s state leader, Peter Malinauskas. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports this has the approval of party co-founder Andrew Evans; presumably this explains it obtaining the old party’s database of 6000 supporters, as reported by David Penberthy of The Australian. Whereas the old party consistently directed preferences to the Liberals, Snelling has ruled out preference deals with either major party.

• In other party split news, Peta Credlin writes in The Australian that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta for the Liberals from 1996 to 2004 but is these days noted as a staple of Sky News after dark, “could head the Liberal Democrats’ NSW Senate ticket”. Earlier reportage on the matter said only that Cameron was involved with the party’s strategy and candidate recruitment.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports Matt Burnell, an official with the Right faction Transport Workers Union, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for its safe northern Adelaide seat of Spence, which will be vacated with Nick Champion’s move to state politics. Burnell reportedly scored 88 union delegate votes and 68 state conference delegate votes, each amounting to a third of the total, to just two and seven respectively for rival candidate Alice Dawkins, daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The rank-and-file membership ballot that made up the remaining third went 140-42 to Burnell.

Peter Law of The West Australian reports that first-term Liberal MP Vince Connelly, whose seat of Stirling is being abolished, “looks certain to contest Cowan, which is held by Labor’s Anne Aly”. By my reckoning, the seat has a post-redistribution margin of 1.5%, making it a seemingly unlikely prospect for the Liberals at a time when polls are pointing to a Labor swing in the state upwards of 10%.

Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports a poll conducted on Monday by Utting Research from 1600 respondents in New South Wales found only 7% supported Saturday’s lockdown protests, with fully 83% opposed. The poll also suggested Scott Morrison’s standing is continuing to tumble, with 37% satisfied and 57% dissatisfied (the state breakdown in last fortnight’s Resolve Strategic poll had it at 46% apiece). By contrast, Gladys Berejiklian maintained 56% approval and 33% disapproval, while the state’s chief health officer, Kerry Chant, recorded 70% approval.

• Emma Dawson, the executive director of the Per Capita think tank who appeared set to ran as Labor’s candidate against Adam Bandt in Melbourne, has announced her withdrawal. Dawson said this was for “personal and professional reasons”, although it followed shortly upon her criticism of Labor’s announcement that it would not rescind tax cuts for high income earners if elected.

• Craig Emerson on election timing in the Financial Review:

The December quarter national accounts are scheduled for release on March 2, 2022. Morrison might feel confident that the economy will bounce back in the December quarter from the September quarter’s negative result. But would it be wise to take a chance on a double-dip recession being announced during a federal election campaign? That would be a catastrophe for the Morrison government: marked down for its refusal to accept responsibility for quarantine, presiding over the slowest vaccine rollout in the Western world, and forfeiting any claim to be superior economic managers … But an April or May election would face the same risks, since the March quarter national accounts would not be released until after the election must be held … A late-February election might be the best bet, though the federal campaign would overlap with that of the South Australian state election scheduled for March 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,483 comments on “Family First the second”

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  1. meher baba,

    ItzaDream and Douglas and Milko: your dialogue about (inter alia) Eastlakes and garden suburbs brings to my mind forgotten images of the remarkable Daceyville, which I had occasion to visit when I lived in Sydney too many decades ago.

    How is Daceyville these days? I hope it’s received some sort of heritage protection as a remarkable early example of systematic town planning in Australia: in some ways a bit of a precursor of inner Canberra.

    It actually seems pretty much as it was. But, it is so much part of my landscape I got through it without seeing too much.

    Might be a good place for my next long walk.

    I will post photos.

  2. Re Morrison’s attempts to get political mileage out of the Olympics: FWIW my offspring tell me that it’s the subject of much satire and sarcasm on TicToc.

  3. While Scott Morrison may be the one suffering in the polls ATM, I am happy to report that nobody, but nobody here in Snoozeville has a good word to say for Gladys Berejiklian and her response to the current virus outbreak.

    In fact, nobody I’ve spoken to from Sydney (via the electric telephone) has a good word to say for her either.

    It is universally accepted that Berejiklian has stuffed up pretty badly. Voters know the issue – revolving around “hubris”. More than one has quoted the old aphorism, “Pride cometh before the fall.”

    The only question is whether she’ll be forgiven.

    Right now she’s pushing the hopeless line (to my mind) that a short sharp vaccination program will save us. But even if Sydney got to 80% coverage (which I believe to be highly optimistic) that would mean that a million would still be unvaccinated and completely susceptible to COVID. If 3% of those caught the virus, we are still looking at 30,000 cases, breakthrough infections and consequent severe stress on our health system.

    And that doesn’t figure the Regions into the equation.

    The longer Morrison (now almost an irrelevancy) and Berejiklian dilly-dally, trying to put off the evil day, the less likely they are to be forgiven, much less re-elected.

  4. D&M: “Might be a good place for my next long walk.
    I will post photos.”

    Thanks, that would be great. My recollection is that two streets with the wonderfully-paired names of Cook Avenue and Banks Avenue are the epicentre of the historic district. A quick squiz of Google Street View suggests that the streetscapes were recently still looking quite like some of the older parts of inner Canberra.

  5. Why hasn’t ScoMo done a address to the nation rather than random press conferences to ask Aussies to do what is required “get vaccinated”?

  6. I received an invite to a family birthday celebration to be held September 4, at the home of my niece a few km outside of “Greater Sydney”. I accepted but I doubt that we’ll be out of lockdown by then. We’ll see how it goes.

  7. So, unless something wonderful happens over the next 5 days, I am now thinking this could be a 3 week lockdown in Brisbane I.e. 1 week to contain then another two weeks to trend down to zero.

  8. History,

    Anna has gone hard and early. So, if your contact tracers can run it down quickly, then it might not get out of control.

    I hope so.

    Regardless, please stay safe.

  9. Newspoll tonight at ~9:30 pm AEST (assuming they follow their usual schedule).

    Hoping for a further slide for the LNP in 2PP and a drop in Scuntmo’s net approval rating – but wouldn’t be surprised to see no change or even a move the other way.

    For anyone interested, @ghostwhovotes usually tweets the results as soon as they’re released.

    Some see the polling shifts as a protest against the government given the current pandemic situation, rather than a marked shift in voting intention. Alternatively, some may be forming a view of Morrison which he will find hard to shake, even if he manages to get things on track (which seems unlikely).

    It would seem this past month or so is the first time people have paid close attention to the government since the pandemic began and become cognisant of all its shortfalls and failings.

  10. Dandy Murray @ #2338 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:30 pm

    This still has serious potential to explode.

    Yes. There was never any real chance of lockdown ending on day 3.

    the Sunny Coast is where they think the unlinked transmission occurred.

    About two weeks ago a local restaurant was closed after a positive case from Vic (still NSW’s fault) paid a visit. It’s a popular place. Always packed. No distancing inside. Masks not required when eating so nobody would have been wearing any. They reopened the next day as if nothing had happened.

    Decided then that a lockdown was just a matter of time.

  11. I was talking today to someone who I’m pretty sure is a permanent LNP voter.
    Plenty of money in semi retirement. Lives away from big cities but normally visits interstate frequently. Annoyed at the restrictions by government because normal lifestyle (frequent dining out, short holidays such as trips on the Murray, weekends in Melbourne to see latest shows) has been disrupted. No sense of any danger.

    I don’t think the failures of Scott and Gladys or the illness of hundreds of people she doesn’t know will affect her intolerance for the “interfering socialist governments “.

  12. “ Get more scientists into parliament, and you have a good first step towards a solution.”
    Being a scientist is pretty much the opposite to being a politician. It’s no surprise scientists don’t go into politics.
    Lawyers and union thugs on the other hand….

  13. Dio: “Being a scientist is pretty much the opposite to being a politician. It’s no surprise scientists don’t go into politics.”

    FWIW Maggie Thatcher was a scientist. Arguably she handled the politics ok.

  14. If we get out of lockdown within a week, I’d consider that a major win. Dandy Murray made the excellent point on the previous page about just how much traffic from across the city goes through many of the hotspots. On top of UQ and the various schools, there’s also Indooroopilly Shopping Centre, which is very big and very popular. I live a fair distance from Indro, and will often choose to go there over closer but smaller shopping centres (though not recently, thank Christ.)

  15. “Anna has gone hard and early. So, if your contact tracers can run it down quickly, then it might not get out of control.”

    Thanks. I don’t think it’s going to get out of control but how long will it take to fully contain? There just seem a lot of risk points for this one and I can see it taking at least a week for the authorities to be confident they have a grip on it. Then there will be the wind down.

  16. Daceyville? I live there! Interesting things happening with Berejiklian and her minions boarding up properties as they become vacant. I’ve counted well over twenty. That in the middle of an epidemic with homeless everywhere. With her light rail finally up and running, this part of Sydney with it’s proximity to the city, airport, beaches, unis etc has become a little bit too valuable for Gladys to waste on Housing Commission. The sales have already started according to two agents eyeing off properties (including ours) in the area. The other matter is her done deal with UNSW to extend the David Phillips sporting fields into Astrolabe Park (the only decent off-leash park in the area) which will, in turn, allow the Waratahs Rugby team to expand their presence and replace the demountables which currently sit on tennis courts with permanent buildings. On top of this, the old Daceyville Marist Brothers has been sold to a private high school. Hartsfield College or something. Lots happening in this tiny suburb that basically no one knows about.

    The local public school has Janette Howard as one of their alumni but apparently she refuses, at the point of a gun, to acknowledge it.

  17. a r @ #2333 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:21 pm

    Player One @ #2321 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 6:49 pm

    I don’t hate the Labor party. But I do hate people who tells blatant untruths. Or do you also believe the AZ vaccine has “failed in terms of efficacy” and is an “experiment” on the population?

    It is less effective. You’re nitpicking over how much less effective something has to be before it can be termed a “failure” relative to something else. But that’s not really the relevant portion or intent of the original remarks.

    As for “experiment”, what happened in the UK pretty much was. And is. A lot of things were tried (shorter intervals between doses, mixing different vaccines, etc.) with little (if any) prior research and significantly less scientific rigor and regulatory oversight than would normally be applied. Because desperate times (and incompetent, covid-dismissing governance), and all that. So that remark seems fair enough, too, unless it was made specifically in relation to Australia.

    Wow. Labor preselects a dud candidate who publicly trashed both the TGA and the AZ rollout, but who then suddenly decides AZ is exactly the solution to Sydney’s problems … right after she is preselected by Labor.

    But apparently I am the one who is nitpicking. I am truly astonished 🙁

  18. But there was an NZ poll and the gloss is starting to come off.
    Newshub-Reid Research Poll: ACT soars to 11.1 pct, Labour plummets to 43 pct and National still not cracking 30sFor the first time since her historic election result, the glow from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s gold medal win has tarnished.

    Labour has hit hurdle after political hurdle and it’s hurt badly, in the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll. But National and Judith Collins won’t be cracking the champagne – they don’t even make the podium, because an old ally has become her greatest threat.

    The poll results show Labour’s ironlike grip on Parliament has been unclenched. It no longer governs alone on 43 percent, plunging a decisive 9.7 points.

  19. For a while it seemed Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern could do no wrong by voters, but now she’s struggling to do much right. Ardern doesn’t believe her Government has become arrogant though.

    “No, not at all. You know, for me it is about listening,” she told Newshub.There’s plenty to listen to. The backlash is palpable – take your pick: the housing crisis, mental health, immigration, nurses strikes, the botched bubble, vaccination rates, a really overpriced cycle bridge, and ute-gate.

    So, a charm offensive is coming, starting with a loosening of the borders.

  20. michael,

    It’s only a poll.

    It doesn’t change the fact that Ardern is still the PM.

    You seem to be getting a little excited.

  21. Seriously?

    There has been so much chopping and changing as regards the AZ vaccine – ministers, Prime Ministers, scientists, the WHO, the EU, GPs, epidemiologists and so on have all had their say – nobody could guarantee that their expressed opinion is absolutely up to date with the latest reality, peer-reviewed double-blind evaluation, unpublished scientific paper, fashion, rumour, received wisdom, marketing boast, political spin or outright blarney concerning that particular potion.

    When the PM himself has reversed and contradicted himself dozens of times, sometimes within hours, regarding his own vaccination program (and AZ in particular), I’m confident that a medically qualified Labor candidate who expressed an opinion weeks ago (ie. about 27 versions of the story in the past) is on pretty safe ground, especially when confronted with P1’s uneducated assertions of guilt.

  22. “ Union thugs from the AMA for example?”
    Doctors don’t do very well in politics. Nelson probably got the highest.

  23. Player One @ #2377 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 9:02 pm

    Wow. Labor preselects a dud candidate who publicly trashed both the TGA and the AZ rollout, but who then suddenly decides AZ is exactly the solution to Sydney’s problems … right after she is preselected by Labor.

    But apparently I am the one who is nitpicking. I am truly astonished 🙁

    If you want to call her out for hypocrisy on the AZ backflip, that’s fair. The thrust of her original position was correct and defensible enough, and also even in line with the ATAGI guidance at the time. I’m no fan of her change of tune either.

    But you haven’t been attacking her for hypocrisy, you’ve been attacking her for expressing a position you disagree with (that AZ is less effective and younger people should therefore hold out for Pfizer). And now that she’s endorsing the position you agree with, you’re unhappy about that, too?

  24. a r @ #2391 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 9:35 pm

    If you want to call her out for hypocrisy on the AZ backflip, that’s fair. The thrust of her original position was correct and defensible enough, and also even in line with the ATAGI guidance at the time. I’m no fan of her change of tune either.

    But you haven’t been attacking her for hypocrisy, you’ve been attacking her for expressing a position you disagree with (that AZ is less effective and younger people should therefore hold out for Pfizer). And now that she’s endorsing the position you agree with, you’re unhappy about that, too?

    She didn’t say AZ was less effective than Pfizer. She said AZ was a failed vaccine. She also said that the TGA was conducting an experiment on the Australian population by rolling it out at all.

    But then later, she comes out and wholeheartedly endorses it … after she gets Labor preselection.

    Honestly. You people are simply astonishing.

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