Family First the second

Fragmentation on the right continues apace, with even former Labor folk now joining in. Also: a new poll records a big thumbs-down for the weekend’s lockdown protests.

Miscellaneous developments of the week so far:

• Former South Australian state Labor MPs Tom Kenyon and Jack Snelling have quit their former party over “moves to restrict religious freedom” and announced their intention to reactivate the Family First party and field candidates at the state election next March. The original Family First was folded into Australian Conservatives when Cory Bernardi joined it in 2016 and wound up at his behest after its failure at the 2019 federal election. Kenyon and Snelling have long been associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association sub-faction of the Right, which is in turn associated with Catholicism and social conservatism, and includes among its number the party’s state leader, Peter Malinauskas. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports this has the approval of party co-founder Andrew Evans; presumably this explains it obtaining the old party’s database of 6000 supporters, as reported by David Penberthy of The Australian. Whereas the old party consistently directed preferences to the Liberals, Snelling has ruled out preference deals with either major party.

• In other party split news, Peta Credlin writes in The Australian that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta for the Liberals from 1996 to 2004 but is these days noted as a staple of Sky News after dark, “could head the Liberal Democrats’ NSW Senate ticket”. Earlier reportage on the matter said only that Cameron was involved with the party’s strategy and candidate recruitment.

• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports Matt Burnell, an official with the Right faction Transport Workers Union, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for its safe northern Adelaide seat of Spence, which will be vacated with Nick Champion’s move to state politics. Burnell reportedly scored 88 union delegate votes and 68 state conference delegate votes, each amounting to a third of the total, to just two and seven respectively for rival candidate Alice Dawkins, daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The rank-and-file membership ballot that made up the remaining third went 140-42 to Burnell.

• Peter Law of The West Australian reports that first-term Liberal MP Vince Connelly, whose seat of Stirling is being abolished, “looks certain to contest Cowan, which is held by Labor’s Anne Aly”. By my reckoning, the seat has a post-redistribution margin of 1.5%, making it a seemingly unlikely prospect for the Liberals at a time when polls are pointing to a Labor swing in the state upwards of 10%.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports a poll conducted on Monday by Utting Research from 1600 respondents in New South Wales found only 7% supported Saturday’s lockdown protests, with fully 83% opposed. The poll also suggested Scott Morrison’s standing is continuing to tumble, with 37% satisfied and 57% dissatisfied (the state breakdown in last fortnight’s Resolve Strategic poll had it at 46% apiece). By contrast, Gladys Berejiklian maintained 56% approval and 33% disapproval, while the state’s chief health officer, Kerry Chant, recorded 70% approval.

• Emma Dawson, the executive director of the Per Capita think tank who appeared set to ran as Labor’s candidate against Adam Bandt in Melbourne, has announced her withdrawal. Dawson said this was for “personal and professional reasons”, although it followed shortly upon her criticism of Labor’s announcement that it would not rescind tax cuts for high income earners if elected.

• Craig Emerson on election timing in the Financial Review:

The December quarter national accounts are scheduled for release on March 2, 2022. Morrison might feel confident that the economy will bounce back in the December quarter from the September quarter’s negative result. But would it be wise to take a chance on a double-dip recession being announced during a federal election campaign? That would be a catastrophe for the Morrison government: marked down for its refusal to accept responsibility for quarantine, presiding over the slowest vaccine rollout in the Western world, and forfeiting any claim to be superior economic managers … But an April or May election would face the same risks, since the March quarter national accounts would not be released until after the election must be held … A late-February election might be the best bet, though the federal campaign would overlap with that of the South Australian state election scheduled for March 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,483 comments on “Family First the second”

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  1. I mean, it’s fair enough to point out when you believe someone is being too negative, but you can just directly say it like that without all the other stuff. For example:

    Mundo, you’re overly pessimistic. I think you need a hug. *hug*

    (and if they continue being negative just let them be, why keep poking at an open wound? Scolding unhappy people doesn’t make them happier)

  2. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #146 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 9:58 am

    How is it a misrepresentation?

    You clearly think that Labor’s policies should align more closely to the Greens and that they should fight the election on those issues, so why should Labor’s vote hold up any more than the Greens vote does.

    What has anything I posted got to do with the Greens?

    Your particular obsessions are not shared by everyone here.

  4. He doesnt deserve to be reelected.

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    34m
    Look at Josh go.

    He’s been hitting the decks pretty hard.

    Trying desperately to rehabilitate himself in the eyes of Victorians.

    How many times in this interview did he say, “Victoria Victoria” as if he’d never really turned on them in their darkest hour?

    #kooyongvotes
    Quote Tweet
    Michael Rowland
    @mjrowland68
    · 2h
    Coming up on @BreakfastNews, federal Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg. 7.30am #auspol

  5. I think these two comments lay out the two sides pretty well.

    De Brierley Newton
    @debrierley
    1h
    I’m for a country that votes for a party that stands by its principles, for the welfare of the community not billionaires and doesn’t take donations from huge corporations.
    @AdamBandt @Greens

    ***
    Dr Sheep Devil Person
    @noplaceforsheep
    · 2h
    I’m actually all for Labor saying whatever gives them the best chance to be elected, that’s how desperate I am

  6. Player One @ #152 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 8:05 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #146 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 9:58 am

    How is it a misrepresentation?

    You clearly think that Labor’s policies should align more closely to the Greens and that they should fight the election on those issues, so why should Labor’s vote hold up any more than the Greens vote does.

    What has anything I posted got to do with the Greens?

    Your particular obsessions are not shared by everyone here.

    I never said it did.

    I did observe that it reflects a similar position to the Greens, hence my point as to why would Labor expect a different result to that which the Greens achieve if they ran the same line.

  7. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #156 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 10:14 am

    I never said it did.

    I did observe that it reflects a similar position to the Greens, hence my point as to why would Labor expect a different result to that which the Greens achieve if they ran the same line.

    Bollocks. You misrepresented what I said to suit your obsession.

  9. Anyway, getting on with the job more level crossings going…

    Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    4m
    Premier Andrews announces an extra 10 level crossings will be removed by 2025. Target was 75.
    @abcmelbourne
    Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    26s
    Incs 3 on Pakenham line, 2 on Lilydale, 2 Frankston, one on Belgrave, Mernda and Sunbury.

  10. Is Bridget McKenzie human?

    Matt Grudnoff
    @MattGrudnoff
    · 1h
    Bridget McKenzie was on RN saying “I’d rather be on welfare here in Australia than anywhere else in the world”. Has anyone told her we have the least generous unemployment payments in the developed world? Or perhaps she has never experienced trying to live on $40 a day?

  11. lizzie @ #22 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 10:20 am

    Is Bridget McKenzie human?

    Matt Grudnoff
    @MattGrudnoff
    · 1h
    Bridget McKenzie was on RN saying “I’d rather be on welfare here in Australia than anywhere else in the world”. Has anyone told her we have the least generous unemployment payments in the developed world? Or perhaps she has never experienced trying to live on $40 a day?

    ‘Is Bridget McKenzie human?’
    You have to ask?
    She’s a member of the Liberal party.

  12. Player One @ #157 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 8:18 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #156 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 10:14 am

    I never said it did.

    I did observe that it reflects a similar position to the Greens, hence my point as to why would Labor expect a different result to that which the Greens achieve if they ran the same line.

    Bollocks. You misrepresented what I said to suit your obsession.

    What’s bollocks?

    That you advocate a similar approach to campaigning as the Greens?

  13. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, July 29, 2021 at 10:18 am
    Wouldn’t be shocked if Vic goes back into lockdown if they don’t quickly address this mystery case.
    ________
    I expected them to go for another week.

  14. mundo
    “She’s a member of the Liberal party.”

    Bridget McKenzie is a member of the National Party. But your point still stands: she’s not human.

  15. ”
    porotisays:
    Thursday, July 29, 2021 at 8:06 am
    ‘Exclusive’ so a drip from the SfM. ‘Horizons’ are just so last week so it is upwards and onwards with paths and pathways. The picture gave me a bit of a lol. The pose was looks familiar, brings some dictator to mind , Saddam Hussein ?
    .
    Exclusive
    Vaccine push to pave the way for country to reopen
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/vaccine-push-to-pave-the-way-for-country-to-reopen-20210728-p58dtb.html

    ”

    Can you find the photo of Saddam Hussein or some other dictator with same pose?

  17. These are the travel details from the Qld CMO about a backpacker who tested positive to Covid:

    “It doesn’t cluster with any other cases in Australia. It is clear that he as acquired it from one of those three people. He was on the same plane as those three people when he travelled from Manila to Port Moresby and then again on the same plane when he travelled from Port Moresby to Brisbane. ”

    Am I the only one who finds that itinerary odd? We reportedly still have Australian citizens unable to return to Australia. Is quarantine capacity the only reason? Or money?

    How does a backpacker (presumably traveling cheaply) get seats back to Australia, and a spot in the hotel quarantine system, travel here via a very high risk country (PNG) while other can’t get flights? Why permit more backpackers if foreign when citizens can’t return? Who is handing out the travel permissions? On what basis?? And why didn’t he just take a direct flight (cheaper, safer)?

    It is as though we have a keystone cop running immigration.

  19. Good Morning

    Lizzie

    Yes that’s how I see it too.

    I give Labor credit that it has not released its full policy suite yet so that even with a small target approach it will be much better than the LNP.

    I think it’s tax position is wrong. I have seen many comments about tax rises. This is exactly the language used by the Republicans against President Biden.

    He didn’t have to respond because it was clear from the Primaries Biden was going to increase taxes.
    There were even videos of Billionaires crying on tv over it.

    Biden was able to do this because the GOP and Wall Street were dead scared there would be more tax increases if Sanders or Warren was going to be President.

    Labor could have used the Greens to great effect as Biden did with Sanders and Warren. Of course that would have meant Labor talking up the Greens as a threat to the LNP agenda. So I am disappointed, not surprised at the dumping of opposition to the LNP tax cuts propaganda.

  20. lizzie

    How lucky are we, that we have the choice to listen or turn them off!

    We are indeed. I don’t think there are many things more pointless than listening to the Coalition Ministers they send out to speak on RN’s AM . They send out their most fluent ‘white noise’* speakers.
    *I wonder if ‘white noise’ will fall foul of the woke brigade , there’s bound to be a racist/white privilege angle in there somewhere 😆

  21. Player One @ #166 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 8:27 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #162 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 10:23 am

    What’s bollocks?

    That you advocate a similar approach to campaigning as the Greens?

    Here is my original post: WTTE “the best thing people can find to say about Albo is nothing”

    Your now 3 response posts: WTTE Greens! Greens! Greens!

    Do you get it yet?

    So a comparison with the Greens somehow invalidates a comment.

  23. Barney

    On this site yes.

    Maybe in marginal electorates too. All that propaganda that the Greens are extreme out of touch etc.

    Labor should never ever work with them. You can’t trust the Greens and they are toxic to Labor are just some of the propaganda pushed here and by right wing media.

    Edit: We know it’s propaganda because everyday Labor and the Greens work together in the ACT.

  24. guytaur @ #175 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 8:34 am

    Barney

    On this site yes.

    Maybe in marginal electorates too. All that propaganda that the Greens are extreme out of touch etc.

    Labor should never ever work with them. You can’t trust the Greens and they are toxic to Labor are just some of the propaganda pushed here and by right wing media.

    Thank you gatekeeper.

  25. Scott Morrison says leaders will eventually consider imposing greater restrictions on people who choose not to get vaccinated against Covid-19 “because they’re a danger to themselves and others”.

    The prime minister made the comment during a radio interview with the Melbourne radio station 3AW. He said he could not guarantee the country would open up by the end of this year, “because the virus is unpredictable and it would be irresponsible to do so”.

  30. Ven
    Saddam comes to mind from some of the tv footage I remember but I get the feeling it was someone else. Saddam held his hand a little higher than Scotty , closer to a salute/wave. My Mr X sits frustratingly just out of my memories’ grasp.
    I’ll use one of the best memory jog techniques, stop trying to remember it. 🙂

  31. Just in case not following Guardian blog….After 18 months of this crap WA does this.. are they morons or what..

    Da’th and Young both said they were very concerned about those sitting around him on his flight from WA back to Queensland (after he was turned around at the border), but they do not yet have the details of which flight he was on.

    Young:

    When he got out of hotel quarantine here in Brisbane, he had done his 14 days and had three negative tests, he then on travelled to WA. But they turned him around, they put him into a hotel for two days until there was a suitable flight and then he was placed on that flight and returned to Queensland. I am just getting the details of that flight he was on. I don’t have them yet but we will contact trace the people who sat around him.

  34. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    2m
    ‘Rigidly flexible’: Peter Dutton’s office directs department to answer media inquiries in three paragraphs |The Guardian|Everything he does is aimed at uber secrecy.

  36. Gladys has been very popular for some time now, its takes a while for that sort of political capital to be burnt. I imagine she’s also benefiting from the clown in the Lodge copping much of the flack, and a state opposition that – at least from my distant observations here in Queensland – seems virtually invisible.

  37. poroti @ #182 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 8:45 am

    Ven
    Saddam comes to mind from some of the tv footage I remember but I get the feeling it was someone else. Saddam held his hand a little higher than Scotty , closer to a salute/wave. My Mr X sits frustratingly just out of my memories’ grasp.
    I’ll use one of the best memory jog techniques, stop trying to remember it. 🙂

    Wasn’t that the pose in the statue they tore down in Baghdad after the invasion.

  41. Barney

    It’s you looking for a fight. You have no argument

    The facts are clear. Labor and the Greens can and do work together. Every day in the ACT.

  42. Barney in Tanjung Bunga
    Close but it is not quite the mental image I have. Saddam in Basra was close, see below. I suppose with tv there would be a lot more frontal shots which may look alot closer to my image.

  43. “because the virus is unpredictable and it would be irresponsible to do so”.

    So proclaims our Great Leader. But the virus is actually very predictable. It’s human behaviour that’s unpredictable, and is responsible for driving transmission of the virus. Government policy is supposed to take this into account, rather than the PM just throwing his hands in the air.

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