Family First the second

Fragmentation on the right continues apace, with even former Labor folk now joining in. Also: a new poll records a big thumbs-down for the weekend’s lockdown protests.

Miscellaneous developments of the week so far:

• Former South Australian state Labor MPs Tom Kenyon and Jack Snelling have quit their former party over “moves to restrict religious freedom” and announced their intention to reactivate the Family First party and field candidates at the state election next March. The original Family First was folded into Australian Conservatives when Cory Bernardi joined it in 2016 and wound up at his behest after its failure at the 2019 federal election. Kenyon and Snelling have long been associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association sub-faction of the Right, which is in turn associated with Catholicism and social conservatism, and includes among its number the party’s state leader, Peter Malinauskas. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports this has the approval of party co-founder Andrew Evans; presumably this explains it obtaining the old party’s database of 6000 supporters, as reported by David Penberthy of The Australian. Whereas the old party consistently directed preferences to the Liberals, Snelling has ruled out preference deals with either major party.

• In other party split news, Peta Credlin writes in The Australian that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta for the Liberals from 1996 to 2004 but is these days noted as a staple of Sky News after dark, “could head the Liberal Democrats’ NSW Senate ticket”. Earlier reportage on the matter said only that Cameron was involved with the party’s strategy and candidate recruitment.

• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports Matt Burnell, an official with the Right faction Transport Workers Union, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for its safe northern Adelaide seat of Spence, which will be vacated with Nick Champion’s move to state politics. Burnell reportedly scored 88 union delegate votes and 68 state conference delegate votes, each amounting to a third of the total, to just two and seven respectively for rival candidate Alice Dawkins, daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The rank-and-file membership ballot that made up the remaining third went 140-42 to Burnell.

• Peter Law of The West Australian reports that first-term Liberal MP Vince Connelly, whose seat of Stirling is being abolished, “looks certain to contest Cowan, which is held by Labor’s Anne Aly”. By my reckoning, the seat has a post-redistribution margin of 1.5%, making it a seemingly unlikely prospect for the Liberals at a time when polls are pointing to a Labor swing in the state upwards of 10%.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports a poll conducted on Monday by Utting Research from 1600 respondents in New South Wales found only 7% supported Saturday’s lockdown protests, with fully 83% opposed. The poll also suggested Scott Morrison’s standing is continuing to tumble, with 37% satisfied and 57% dissatisfied (the state breakdown in last fortnight’s Resolve Strategic poll had it at 46% apiece). By contrast, Gladys Berejiklian maintained 56% approval and 33% disapproval, while the state’s chief health officer, Kerry Chant, recorded 70% approval.

• Emma Dawson, the executive director of the Per Capita think tank who appeared set to ran as Labor’s candidate against Adam Bandt in Melbourne, has announced her withdrawal. Dawson said this was for “personal and professional reasons”, although it followed shortly upon her criticism of Labor’s announcement that it would not rescind tax cuts for high income earners if elected.

• Craig Emerson on election timing in the Financial Review:

The December quarter national accounts are scheduled for release on March 2, 2022. Morrison might feel confident that the economy will bounce back in the December quarter from the September quarter’s negative result. But would it be wise to take a chance on a double-dip recession being announced during a federal election campaign? That would be a catastrophe for the Morrison government: marked down for its refusal to accept responsibility for quarantine, presiding over the slowest vaccine rollout in the Western world, and forfeiting any claim to be superior economic managers … But an April or May election would face the same risks, since the March quarter national accounts would not be released until after the election must be held … A late-February election might be the best bet, though the federal campaign would overlap with that of the South Australian state election scheduled for March 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,483 comments on “Family First the second”

Comments Page 2 of 50
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  1. Parramatta Moderate: “Interesting to see that NSW voters give Scomo a net satisfaction of -20, yet Gladys, despite her and her government’s scandals, and her government’s role in creating the Covid crisis in NSW, sits on +23. I’d imagine Liberal diehards will blame the crisis on working-class people in Western Sydney from non-Caucasian families. But everyone else is looking for someone in authority to blame, and it looks like they’ve settled on Scomo.”

    I think the COVID-19 has given a great boost to the personal popularity of all premiers and chief ministers. Normally, a lot of voters pay scant attention to state political leaders. But the COVID-19 pandemic has changed all that, with voters seeing them seemingly (and probably in reality) working hard to address a major crisis day in day out. And they like it.

    This became obvious to me during the Victorian outbreak last year, when – despite rapidly rising case numbers, evidence of stuff ups and a series of resignations by ministers and senior public servants – Andrews seemed to just get more and more popular. He is, of course, a highly-talented communicator. And Gladys – who is carrying quite a bit more baggage than Andrews in terms of scandals and stuff ups, not to mention growing evidence that she is leading a government that is divided in its views on how to address the pandemic – is a pretty effective communicator as well.

    ScoMo has been a good communicator in the past, but I don’t think he has done a good job with COVID-19. He (and presumably his team) seem to be oscillating between inaction and panic. His dramatic late-night response to ATAGI’s first advice on AZ was a classic instance of the panic response. On the other hand, an inactive approach to seizing control of the narrative has allowed Norman Swan’s pretty dubious story about how Australia could have had a lot more Pfizer a lot earlier if only we’d asked nicely (or whatever it was) to become an accepted truth.

  2. What’s the point of electing a Labor government, if they are as right wing as the coalition?

    OK, I’ll have a go at answering.

    Because the “Liberals” will continue moving ever further to the right, while Labor, once it attains office, will be able to halt this trend and start to turn things around.

    But that’s they key – Labor has to get elected. Any party that had my 100% support would be too far left to be electable. Labor can be pure or it can have a good shot at gaining office.

    The damage wrought on society and the economy since 1996 can’t be undone overnight. The winners of those changes have all the power, all the money and all the megaphones. They don’t have to have the votes, however.

  3. DisplayName at 8:17 am
    If you take anything left of the Labor Right Wing as being deemed radical left then that might help it make sense 😆

  5. DisplayName @ #42 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 8:17 am

    C@t

    What a simplistic perspective. It just completely ignores the more than a little ‘left-ish’ beliefs that Labor supporters here have.

    Huh? How can I be ignoring them when I’m pointing out that raising them gets you called a “Green” or a “concern troll”.

    Because you are ignoring those same beliefs that many that are Labor supporters here and in general, also hold. Just not 100% of the positions that supporters of The Greens hold. Many positions that Labor supporters hold are similar to those The Greens hold, just not as extreme. It kind of naturally happens that way when you seek to appeal to a majority of the electorate rather than the 10% The Greens appeal to.

  6. poroti @ #53 Thursday, July 29th, 2021 – 8:23 am

    DisplayName at 8:17 am
    If you take anything left of the Labor Right Wing as being deemed radical left then that might help it make sense 😆

    …Which would fly your flag for the 10%, pretty obviously. Thankfully, the Labor Left realise there are more people between the two, Labor Right and The Greens, than that 10%, and they are still in Labor. 🙂

  8. C@t

    Because you are ignoring those same beliefs that many that are Labor supporters here and in general, also hold.

    What the fuck around you talking about? This has nothing to do with the Greens, except as the term is used by the self-appointed thought police on PB to denigrate people who disagree with them. You raise those beliefs here and you get labelled a Greens. Did you notice GG just now? Have you already forgotten you did the same the other day, on cue from your thought leader boerwar?

  9. Interesting news about Ross Cameron. I have to say that of all the nutters on SKY he’s the only one I liked. I don’t know why, I just like his brand of crazy I suppose. A born entertainer I think!

  10. Anyone who thinks I’m talking rubbish only need look at this exact discussion right now. You call out the tactics of the self-appointed Labor gatekeepers and receive a torrent of verbiage in return.

  12. From Lawyerly

    “Complaints against Christian Porter’s lawyers filed with legal watchdog
    A friend of Christian Porter’s accuser has lodged complaints with the NSW legal watchdog against silk Sue Chrysanthou and Porter’s solicitor, Rebekah Giles, for their conduct in representing the former Attorney-General in his defamation case against the ABC.”

    Not sure this is a good thing.

  14. Putting aside all of his other terrible characteristics, I think Ross Cameron is our leader in the wanker/hypocrite combination.

  15. When did I ever say I was a Greens supporter?

    Here’s a hint. NEVER.

    Why don’t you think on that, for a second. Calling me a Green started on a cue from the self-appointed “Labor” thought leader boerwar because I disagree with so much of his bullshit. Turn on your critical thinking skills, ffs.

    Do you understand that when I say “self appointed Labor blah blah” I’m being sarcastic? Do you understand that when I talk about Labor implementing “Greens” policies I’m being sarcastic? One of the policies in question (a federal icac of some sort) was labelled “Greens” by the self-appointed “Labor” gatekeepers on PB, not me, just days before the ALP themselves brought it up! I wasn’t the one who said it was Greens. I’m never the one bringing the Greens into the conversation. You have to laugh.

  16. Ashasays:
    Thursday, July 29, 2021 at 8:36 am
    Recon:

    Hey, Ross Cameron has some great ideas:
    _________________
    Haha. Court Jester stuff!

  19. Display Name has a point. The way some of the usual suspects can pile on to anyone who dares say something negative about Labor (I mean, unless its one of things they don’t like about the ALP, then it’s all good!) is rather unedifying. Hell, I’m a member of the ALP, and I still get it sometimes!

    (And before anyone mentions it: yes, I am aware that there are Greens / non-Labor lefties here who can be just as bad, it still doesn’t excuse the behavior)

  20. SfM withdraws the Sorry he didn’t make

    “was not a race”.

    He was asked on Sunrise this morning if he had “treated it as a race from the start, would we be in this mess?”

    When we made those remarks, we were talking about the regulation of the vaccines. I’m not sure if people are aware of that*.

    *Nope, The Pfizer vaccine was approved by the TGA on 25 January, and AstraZeneca on 16 February. He said “it is not a race” at least five times in March.

  21. Ian Farquhar
    @ianbfarquhar
    ·
    15m
    I can only shop within 10km?! That limits me to just 17 different Bunnings! Oh, the humanity…..

  22. The irony is, Display Name wrote several very measured posts the other day defending Labor’s decision on the tax cuts and critiquing the Greens’ own response.

  23. ”

    https://www-foxsports-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.foxsports.com.au/tokyo-olympics-2021/vulgar-aussie-hits-back-at-american-hate-after-worst-take-of-the-olympics/news-story/b80e419c39b3a33723b33633c99179e3?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16275098210179&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxsports.com.au%2Ftokyo-olympics-2021%2Fvulgar-aussie-hits-back-at-american-hate-after-worst-take-of-the-olympics%2Fnews-story%2Fb80e419c39b3a33723b33633c99179e3

    ”
    Read till the end. The coach days 5 years of hard work. But the real hard work was done by Titmus.

  24. Credlin conveying some good news:

    Conservative vote splinters as senior Libs walk

    The worry for Scott Morrison has to be that Campbell Newman’s defection could become the tip of an iceberg of discontent.
    PETA CREDLIN

  25. Actually, I have to admit that once, in response to boerwar’s provocations I (childishly) responded that he’d convinced me to vote Green :P.

  26. Ironies abound. AE for example denigrates me for my opinions on Shorten. Yet he is free to give a scathing character assessment of the NSW Labor leader.

    All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.

  29. @voodoo47
    ·
    1h
    OK everyone NOT in NSW! Can you please stop calling him the PM of NSW. We are in Regional NSW and losing work due to Covid but can’t make a covid disaster payments application as we aren’t in a “hotspot” He’s the PM Of Sydney! Thanks, Signed the REST of NSW

  30. DisplayNamesays:
    Thursday, July 29, 2021 at 8:48 am
    Sure Recon, but half the time when you do it, it’s half bait :P.
    ______________
    Not really. Actually, often I am baited with Shorten. In fact, since the 2019 election I haven’t posted that much about him really, although during the campaign that wasn’t the case.

  31. UK Cartoons:

    Martin Rowson on Boris Johnson’s plan to put offenders in chain gangs

    Dave Brown’s @Independent cartoon… #BorisJohnson #VaccinePassports #Vaccination #HerdImmunity #COVID19 #JohnsonVariant

    Patrick Blower on #holidays #TravelRestrictions

    Christian Adams on #Covid_19 #vaccine #vaccines #ThirdWave #lockdown

    PAUL THOMAS on chain gang proposal

    Peter Brookes on #PritiPatel #BorisJohnson #StopAndSearch #BeatingCrimePlan #Austerity #PoliceCuts #Racism

  32. Recon

    Actually, often I am baited with Shorten.

    Oh dear, so you’re just another one of us obsessives*. Get out while you still can!

    * with a bee in their bonnet over some specific thing.

  33. The polling seems to tell a different story re Berejiklian vs Morrison.

    NSW cabinet is the crisis as it dithers and dallies
    Something appears to be profoundly broken with Gladys Berejiklian’s crisis cabinet.
    (Murdoch’s Oz)

  34. Shellbell says:
    Thursday, July 29, 2021 at 8:35 am


    From Lawyerly

    “Complaints against Christian Porter’s lawyers filed with legal watchdog
    A friend of Christian Porter’s accuser has lodged complaints with the NSW legal watchdog against silk Sue Chrysanthou and Porter’s solicitor, Rebekah Giles, for their conduct in representing the former Attorney-General in his defamation case against the ABC.”

    Not sure this is a good thing.

    Do you remember the manager of the Law firm got fired because of her reservations in taking the case. Boy has she been vindicated.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/05/australias-largest-law-firm-in-uproar-after-taking-christian-porter-as-client

  37. Former South Australian state Labor MPs Tom Kenyon and Jack Snelling have quit their former party over “moves to restrict religious freedom” and announced their intention to reactivate the Family First party and field candidates at the state election next March.

    …an election in which they may just possibly gain 2% of the PV and most likely have no impact on the final result. Voters generally avoid religious parties, which is why religious activists seek to colonise the larger outfits. They have succeeded inside the Liberal Party, which is a front for Pentecostal reaction.

    The religiously devoted are not comfortable remaining in Labor. Not a loss when they leave. Labor membership and their political expression is mainly secular, rational and humanist.

  38. For all of you whose social media feeds will be bombarded with the usual Dim Tim statement of I can go to a brothel, shoot up at the safe injecting room and finish it off with a beer at the pub but I can’t visit my grandparents whinge:

    @covidbaseau
    ·
    18m
    Replying to
    @VicGovDH
    VIC Outbreak Map

    Transmissions in this outbreak:
    Household Contact: 81
    Hospitality Patron: 32
    School Student: 21
    Social Contact: 14
    School Staff: 14
    Major Event: 15
    Hospitality Staff: 9
    Apartment: 6
    Workplace: 4
    Supermarket: 1
    Interstate: 1


    ________________________________________________

    They are responding to where the major source of transmission in the latest wave has been – simple. If things go to plan, then people can start go to each others houses…

  40. ‘Socrates says:
    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 11:00 pm

    Frednk

    The fact that a lot of port infrastructure will have to be rebuilt is precisely one of the points the book makes. The question is how and where.

    Final thought I just saw this court ruling that the SA Coroner will receive access to the redacted evidence in the Christian Porter – ABC defamation case. Another big win for Christian. So much winning.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/28/court-allows-secret-parts-of-abc-defence-in-christian-porter-defamation-case-to-be-seen-by-coroner?fbclid=IwAR2aq3wq2CJc1IsQKQyqxQtNGBRlmHin8tKt7gOlPmUWhLGSOP8UbNmieww

    Night all.’
    ____________________________________
    This is fascinating. There are historical ports that are buried under meters of soil, that are high and dry and dozens of kilometers inland, and there are historical ports that are below sea level.

    MO, the two significant issues with global warming sea level rises are:
    1. rate of change v rate of ‘economic’ adaptation
    2. extent of change required given population and the extent of sea front development of all kinds. Ports now are heavily embedded in all sorts of surrounding built environment.

  42. A head teacher on ABCNews this morning said that NSW have made the wrong decision about allowing Year 12 students back to face to face teaching. She said it will be stressful for teachers who have to alternate between modes within a day’s schedule, and also that teachers are not being treated as vulnerable to Covid. Very worried about the decision.

  44. lizziesays:
    Thursday, July 29, 2021 at 9:02 am
    A head teacher on ABCNews this morning said that NSW have made the wrong decision about allowing Year 12 students back to face to face teaching. She said it will be stressful for teachers who have to alternate between modes within a day’s schedule, and also that teachers are not being treated as vulnerable to Covid. Very worried about the decision.
    ______________________________________
    What would happen if it were an ALP government doing this and 1 teacher got covid???

  45. @ChrisEgginton
    ·
    44m
    “you’ve just got to lock down the whole city” Dr Norman Swan on today’s #CornonaCast. He cannot find an epidemiologist who thinks the LGA lockdowns will work. #nswlockdown

    Gladys seems frightened of alienating anyone in certain suburbs. What are the criteria for them? Liberal voters? High income? High social class? Business lobbyists live there?

  46. Lizzie

    “allowing Year 12 students back to face to face teaching”

    As a father of such a student, they are going back to do their trial exams as an important run before their final exams.

    It is worth trying in a covid safe way.

  47. Shellbell

    I understand that, but the clue is “Covid safe”, and the stress on teachers having to switch modes, according to that head teacher.

  48. Some of Labor’s me-too’s, however strategic they are, have real world implications.

    For example, it’s all well and good to use the Coalition’s “aspirational” marketing phrase to “justify” a policy change on things like negative gearing, but housing affordability is a real issue. Building some amount of social housing helps a little but doesn’t fix the underlying problem. That means that the aspirations of *some* (wealthier) people are being supported, while others are being ignored under the pretence that everyone’s aspirations are being served. Kumbayah!

    No, Labor can’t do much unless they get into government, but you’re basically telling one group to accept their scraps because a more influential group is throwing a tantrum, but let’s pretend its for everyone’s sake. Why should that be considered an easy pill to swallow? Why should those choking it down be called concern trolls?

  49. Bill Bowtell AO
    @billbowtell
    ·
    1h
    Fed and NSW govts redirecting vaccines in large quantities. What does this mean for vaccine coverage rates in suburbs and towns affected by redistribution? This vital public health information known but kept secret by Fed govt. Why?

  50. Covid will become an OH&S staple following the completion of mass vaccination.
    If there were enough 2 jab Pfizers and 1 jab boosters this would still be an issue but the risks would be the new normal.
    All teachers who wanted to teach in a risk profile that will inevitably become the new normal could do so.
    Anti-vaxxer teachers would take their chances.
    The rest would have to quit teaching.

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