By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad

’Tis the night before a Queensland state by-election; we may not have seen the last of Nick Xenophon; Labor picks candidates for key Melbourne seats; plus further matters for those with a professional interest in our nation’s electoral affairs.

Election news:

• The Palaszczuk government faces what it may now think a fortuitously timed by-election tomorrow in the southern Brisbane seat of Stretton. The seat was vacated by the late Duncan Pegg, who retained it for Labor by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. The intimidating margin has not stopped Liberal National Party taking the field, together with the Greens, Animal Justice and the Informed Medical Options Party. My guide to the by-election can be found here; tune in tomorrow for live results, my page for which awaits the numbers here.

• Jack Morphet of the Sunday Mail reports Nick Xenophon is “seriously considering another tilt at federal politics”, ostensibly because the federal government has failed to protect the rights of Australian producers to market sheepskin boots as ugg boots, the name of which is trademarked by an American company.

• The Herald Sun reports Labor’s Victorian preselection process, which has been commandeered by the party’s national executive after a branch-stacking scandal, has confirmed candidates in four marginal Liberal seats. Gladys Liu will defend her negligible margin in Chisholm against Carina Garland, former assistant secretary at Victorian Trades Hall Council, who was chosen ahead of Monash mayor Rebecca Paterson. In Higgins, the once safe Liberal seat that is developing into a three-cornered contest between Liberal, Labor and the Greens, Katie Allen will face Michelle Ananda-Rajah, consultant physician in general medicine and infectious diseases at Alfred Health. In Casey, where the Liberals will defend a 4.6% margin in the absence of retiring incumbent Tony Smith, Labor has again chosen its candidate from 2019, engineer and small business owner Bill Brindle. In Deakin, which Michael Sukkar holds for the Liberals by 4.7%, the Labor candidate is Matthew Gregg, a teacher.

From the world of academia (Queensland chapter):

• In the Australian Journal of Politics and History, Paul Williams of Griffith University offers Queensland’s role in the 2019 Australian federal election: a case study of regional difference (paywalled, naturally). Williams argues the Coalition’s strong federal performance in Queensland can be understood in terms of its six diverse regions and five elements of its political culture. The former reflect the state’s decentralisation and reliance on primary industries, which show up demographically in low educational attainment, high religious observance and a paucity of migrants. The political culture elements are “a predilection for strong, masculine political leadership; a zealotry for state development; a disproportionate focus on regional and rural districts in budgetary allocations; a pragmatically flexible approach to policy-making” (the Humphrey Appleby-esque note struck by the latter would seem to be deliberate) and “a parochial chauvinism celebrating a Queensland difference, and drawing a moral superiority from it”.

• In the Australian Journal of Political Science, Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland and Tracey Arklay of Griffith University are rethinking voter identification: its rationale and impact. This includes an analysis of Queensland’s one-off experiment with a soft voter identification regime in 2015, which reaches the unsurprising conclusion that migrant and especially indigenous areas had the greatest number of voters needing to lodge provisional votes for want of acceptable identification on the day. For this reason, and despite the measure’s clearly modest impact on the voting returns, the paper concludes “there is no real case for voter ID in Australia”, which it deems “a solution in search of a problem”.

Psephological arcana:

• In keeping with its code of conduct obligations as a member of the recently launched Australian Polling Council, YouGov has published methodology statements for the last four Newspoll surveys. Among other things, these fully detail the questionnaires that were presented to the respondents.

• David Barry has developed a tool for exploring Senate preference flows at the 2019 election using the ballot paper data files, which is immensely nifty if you can work out how to use it.

• A Tasmanian Electoral Commission report into the recent state election, which unusually coupled a statewide lower house election with one of the state’s periodic upper house elections for two of the chamber’s 15 seats, finds over 6% of those who ought to have lodged an upper house vote did not do so because they attended a booth in the wrong part of the electorate, and a further 1% were not issued with a ballot due to staff error. It argues against the contention that this should invalidate the election, since the errors in the former case were committed by the voters rather than the commission, and the latter were too few in number to affect the results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,674 comments on “By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad”

Comments Page 4 of 34
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  1. laughtong @ #NaN Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 10:05 am

    I seem to remember the question of progress on the Melbourne Quarantine facility was raised. From the Age blog;

    Federal Finance Minister Simon Birmingham has announced Multiplex has won the contract to build a 1000-bed quarantine centre at Mickleham, on Melbourne’s northern outskirts.

    The federal government will pay to build the “centre for national resilience” but the Victorian government will operate it during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Building is expected to being in August with the first 500 quarantine spots available by the end of the year.

    Thanks, laughtong. 🙂

    ‘The Centre for National Resilience’ !?!

    Newspeak gone mad!

  2. lizzie @ #NaN Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 10:04 am

    Oh, hello. Movement at the station.

    Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    19m
    New: finance minister Simon Birmingham announces next stage in building dedicated quarantine centre in Victoria – work to begin “from early August, and we are working towards the first 500 beds opening by the end of the year”

    They must have read my comment this morning. 🙂

  5. Charlottesville didn’t win the election for Biden, it was allegedly what motivated him to run for President but Charlottesville definitely did not rate at all as an issue last year, except maybe in the background of bigger discussions.

    He won because he was experienced enough to know that black voters are the core backbone of the Democratic Party base and pandered to them in the lead up to the primaries (being Obama’s VP helped with that – and basically camping out in South Carolina), then won the general because, well he wasn’t Trump and seemed to get a good balance between offering enough to the progressive voters that make up the base (real progressives – not Brooklyn podcasters), without scaring away moderate voters.

  6. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 10:12 am
    guytaur @ #NaN Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 9:45 am

    Cat

    Yes. The real moral outrage of corruption and attacking the trust the community has in experts is to wage a culture war to distract.

    The US gives us a perfect example of it with the Republicans attacking Trans and Black Lives Matter and Socialists as bogeymen while passing voter suppression laws and spreading antivaxxer messages.

    And a Republican was asked to define ‘Socialism’ the other day and he basically said it was everything to the Left of the Republican Party. Ie, an artifice to beat the Democrats over the head with.
    ”

    Didn’t someone say that Democrats are to the right of Libs and ALP? That was about 15- 20 years ago. And it may not be applicable now.

  8. lizzie at 9:26 am

    May I use “off-piste”, or is that classist? 😉

    That and something far far more sinful. It is eurocentric . 🙂

  9. lizzie @ #53 Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 10:01 am

    I had the same doctor for both A-Z injections, but her technique varied.
    The first time she aimed and fired quickly. No blood, no pain afterwards.
    Second time she pinched my arm quite painfully and when I removed the band-aid later it showed blood leakage.
    I admit I was a little worried.

    Great, thanks Lizzie. I’m 3 weeks away from my second shot you know what a delicate petal I am when it come to this sort of thing.

  12. mundo

    Relax. I’ve had no other after effects so far. I’ve been studying the many images of “jabs” the media love to show us and the techniques do vary a bit.

  13. Wat Tyler @ #150 Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 10:12 am

    Oh great. I log in and I see the “woke” debate is brewing up again by the same whiny curmudgeons. Our standards shift – get over it.

    Y’all didn’t give a shit when we were censoring anything that got the Christians’ knickers in a twist or anything that got some conservative busybody group upset, not too long ago. Shoe’s on the other foot and suddenly it’s a crisis.

    Stop whining about trivial shit. We are in a pandemic, economic inequality is through the roof and I am almost out of wine. Let’s prioritise here.

    Couldn’t agree more!!

    It’s a sign of stress and anxiety that people obsess about trivial things during crises. Perhaps that is what’s happening with some Bludgers.

  15. Wat

    That argument is exactly what Republicans tell themselves.

    That way they can pretend that Trump’s behaviour is an aberration and it was not rejection of the attacks on the “woke” people from their point of view.

    Abortion
    Trans rights
    Black rights.
    Edit: Tying directly into economic and political power structures
    We have another term for it.

    Human Rights and Civil Rights.

  16. Wat:

    It wasn’t that long ago that it was the right trying to cancel everything and the left who were the ones offending everybody. I sometimes miss those days.

    But the right always had some, shall we say, odd priorities when it came to who they chose to cancel. Possibly the best example might be Marilyn Manson. In the 90s, the Christian right lost their shit over the band’s satanic and sexual imagery, the baiting of fundamentalist Christians, the deliberate homoerotisicm, the obscene lyrics. Fast forward to 2021, when Manson (the man, not the band) has since been revealed as a serial domestic abuser and rapist. It’s the left who have abandoned him now, while the right suddenly are all about “seperating the artist from the art” and “due process” and all that.

  17. I’m looking right now at the season first mandarin mess in our back yard. I know there are a couple of possums about but I have always suspected fruit bats. The mandarins are plentiful and delicious this year.

  18. sonar @ – 9:59 am

    A better expression to use is “off with the pixies”.
    I’ve not heard any pixies protest it’s use.

    Many a person would have dreamed of being off with “The Pixies”

  23. Ven says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 10:00 am
    ”
    Victoriasays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 9:33 am
    Just look at all the money wasted on giving companies that dont need it, jobkeeper.

    How many quarantine facilities and vaccines could have been procured

    Morrison and co are the frickin worst.
    ”

    And according to 7:30 report ( or was it some other news agency?, Harvey Norman is reportedly refusing to pay although he had profits during that period.

    One solution would be to entice Harvey Norman and the other undeserving businesses to spend the reported $6 billion JobKeeper handout on construction and operation of quarantine centres, vaccine production facilities and other necessary ventures.

    Those businesses could get a big PR boost and Australia would get much of what Morrison failed to provide.

    A win-win?

  24. C@tmomma at 10:32 am

    I prefer, ‘a few sandwiches short of a picnic’. Sandwiches NEVER get offended. They appreciate the attention

    Lord Sandwich would surely have done something in his life to outrage the ‘outrage set’. So cancel the ‘sanwiches’ or are you a ‘deplorable’ who ‘supports’ a racist sexist beast like Lord Sandwich ?
    Speaking of sandwiches and the Detroit Grand Pubahs
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8nxIFerN-A

  26. Asha Leu says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 10:28 am

    Wat:

    It wasn’t that long ago that it was the right trying to cancel everything and the left who were the ones offending everybody. I sometimes miss those days.

    But the right always had some, shall we say, odd priorities when it came to who they chose to cancel. Possibly the best example might be Marilyn Manson. In the 90s, the Christian right lost their shit over the band’s satanic and sexual imagery, the baiting of fundamentalist Christians, the deliberate homoerotisicm, the obscene lyrics.
    _______________
    For me the low point of the ‘Right’s entry into musical criticism was their disrespect and glee when Kurt Cobain committed suicide. It was sickening. Kurt had been vocal as a supporter of gay rights and feminism and the hate poured upon him when he died still disturbs me to this day to be honest.

  29. Jackol

    That was Scotty’s favourite word for a while, assuring us we’d all come through this through our ‘resilience’, presumably without him having to do a tap of work himself. So the C of Resilience became the unicorn to distract us from the lack of enough quarantine centres.

  30. Phil Coorey appears to have shaken off his infatuation with The Woman Who Saved Australia.

    Right now, the two largest economies, NSW and Victoria, are locked down. After doing so well for the first 18 months, the NSW government has botched it this time.

    While the pandemic in Greater Sydney has not run away, it shows no sign of being brought under control.

    Premier Gladys Berejiklian needs to stop asking people to do the right thing and start telling them, a la Daniel Andrews.

    The Man Crush On Scott Morrison remains, sadly undiminished.

    Coorey assures us that ScoMo has been down in the polls before, but never for the count. It looks like this particular scribbler has decided to go down with the sinking ship, as he continues to breathlessly deliver us drips of information from inside the PMO that fewer and fewer are interested in.

    Morrison’s performance yesterday was an exercise in desperation.

    He was late to the gig. Several here theorized as to why. My own version had it that they’d had to exhume Lionel Logue (of The King’s Speech fame) to help with coaching ScoMo how to form the word “Sorry”. Try saying it with a mouth full of walnuts Scotty.

    In the end the advice seems to have been to rev himself up first with irrelevant happy-talk about how he got us the Games almost single-handedly (after the line that Annastacia Palaszczuk was a hypocrite for going to Japan had fallen flat on its face earlier in the week), and then to mumble out the word “Sorry” so quickly and inconsequentially as to make it seem a trivial afterthought.

    ScoMo’s “Sorry” however made it abundantly clear that all he was sorry for was that the rollout was stuffed-up, but by whom remains a mystery. He sounded like a man who witnesses a traffic accident and has a theory about it he’s just itching to tell the police.

    Maybe it was ATAGI? Maybe it was Gladys? Maybe it was The People and their silly fears of rare blood clots? How could they make that mistake when the Rollout Schedule has been freely available from the Public Records office on Alpha Centauri for the past six months? Anyway, if they want to die, that’s up to them. This isn’t China, after all.

    Here’s a hint, ScoMo: when you say “Sorry”, you don’t then make excuses for yourself and try to blame others. If you’re responsible for the disaster, man-up and accept the responsibility.

    It only got worse. We were then subjected to the inevitable barrage of disconnected numbers. We got “hundreds”, “thousands”, “hundreds of thousands” and “millions” in a blatheresque outburst that rivalled some of ScoMo’s best efforts.

    Then, to show us what a Master Of Detail he was, we got what marketing spivs and greasy lawyers seeking to avoid costs orders like to call “granularity”, right down to which medical clinics were offering what services in Chester Hill. Every possible irrelevant – and completely forgettable – detail was vomited out except the local bus timetables.

    At last the real reason for the delay became clear: it had been ScoMo back in the office demanding more statistics, more pages of drowning detail to impress us with. And he read out every single one of them.

    If this was a bid for relevance, it fell flat. No-one in the press gaggle wanted to ask him about his magnificent Olympics triumph, and a bit of “drilling down” (ScoMo’s new buzzword) was required by the hacks into exactly what he had just apologized for.

    After the fate of one jabee in Tassie (who had died) was brought up we at last hit the bottom of the barrel. Everyone is free to make their own health choices, Scotty told us. We don’t do compulsion here. And thus, Morrison’s final message was tossed out as he fled the scene:

    “Suave qui peut!”

  31. Recon at 10:38 am

    the ‘Right’s entry into musical criticism

    Was a heaven sent boon to the music industry. What better way to get young people to buy something than for it to get all the fuddy duddy’s knickers in a twist. Be a rebel and buy something ‘dangerous’ and ‘daring’ .

  32. I’m one card short of a full deck
    I’m not quite the shilling
    One wave short of a shipwreck
    I’m not at my usual top billing
    I’m coming down with a fever
    I’m really out to sea
    This kettle is boiling over
    I think I’m a banana tree
    Oh, dear

    https://www.google.com/search?q=i%27m+going+slightly+mad+lyrics&sxsrf=ALeKk02vhwx_tyBOSDJKoAPi31IY_P_TIw%3A1627000998222&ei=phD6YOL5DP-f4-EPw92O6A8&oq=im+going+slightly+mad&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAEYADIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQRxCwAzIHCAAQsAMQQzINCC4QsAMQyAMQQxCTAjIKCC4QsAMQyAMQQzIKCC4QsAMQyAMQQzIKCC4QsAMQyAMQQzIKCC4QsAMQyAMQQzIKCC4QsAMQyAMQQ0oFCDgSATFKBAhBGABQAFgAYOoqaAFwAngAgAHRAYgB0QGSAQMyLTGYAQCqAQdnd3Mtd2l6yAEPwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz

  33. Recon:

    For me the low point of the ‘Right’s entry into musical criticism was their disrespect and glee when Kurt Cobain committed suicide. It was sickening. Kurt had been vocal as a supporter of gay rights and feminism and the hate poured upon him when he died still disturbs me to this day to be honest.

    Being only six years old when Cobain took his life (I later become a big Nirvana fan in my teens), I genuinely was not aware of that horrible fact until now. Funny how some things seem to get forgotten by history.

  34. Wat

    Think about it.

    It’s just like the attacks on MeToo

    It’s “woke”.

    The Republicans have gone deep in embracing the evangelical right and the racist right. They specifically campaigned as a culture war.

    They lost.

    That’s because the losers of their culture war managed to come out and vote. The attacks on the woke so extreme as Cat points out the GOP lost the suburbs.

    This is the point of why language statues and cancel culture have become so talked about. It’s a specific culture war by the right. One that has lost.

    Edit: This also includes the willingness to embrace the big lie and an attempted coup.

  35. Bert says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 9:51 am
    Itsa from previous thread.

    This should set your mind at ease..

    Preferred sites for IM injection:
    Usual sites for delivering an IM injection include the deltoid, vastus lateralis, ventrogluteal and dorsogluteal muscles.
    The first 3 are recommended due to their avoidance of any proximity to major blood vessels and nerves. Aspiration is NOT required for these sites.
    Aspiration is still advised when using the dorsogluteal muscle due to its proximity to the gluteal artery.
    Take home: aspiration is NOT needed for IM injections if proper technique and location is used EXCEPT for the dorsogluteal site where it should be used.

    https://ed-areyouprepared.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Do-you-need-to-aspirate-when-giving-intramuscular.pdf

  36. Sceptic @ #134 Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 9:55 am

    This from BK explains the logical approach…. one that utilises AZ ..

    https://johnmenadue.com/graeme-stewart-we-can-help-to-restore-confidence-in-the-az-vaccine/

    That article seems mostly concerned with the blood-clot issue, which I think is neither here nor there. Some problems though:

    – The differing efficacy levels between AZ and mRNA vaccines aren’t mentioned, however these are significant, particularly in relation to delta (and in my view a bigger source of hesitancy than blood-clots, at least amongst people who follow the research).

    – There’s a claim, without citation, that a single AZ dose has some immediate protective benefit. This doesn’t match some of the other research that’s been shared here, which suggested that a single dose is minimally protective at best. Maximum protection doesn’t arrive until 2 weeks after the second dose. For AZ that’s a 14 week wait.

    Good on them for mentioning mRNA boosters though:

    the aim is to deliver a first vaccine dose with AZ to as many people and as quickly as possible with the option then of a second dose with an mRNA vaccine if/when available and to encourage those who are due for a second AZ dose to do so.

    But given the 12-week dosing interval for AZ, that kind of begs the question of why bother. If the aim is mRNA boosters anyways, and if the government could fix up the Pfizer/mRNA supply in 6 weeks (and if they can’t, what bloody good are they?) it would be three weeks faster to wait and double-vaccinate everyone with Pfizer than it would be to start vaccinating everyone with AZ today.

    The back and forth over AZ seems like a distraction. The government should just be raked over the coals until they get the Pfzer/mRNA supplies moving. There are lockdowns, border closures, and people getting sick and dying, in case they haven’t noticed. Now’s the time for quick and decisive action.

  37. Words are just words, meanings can change not just only over time, but also by how they are used.

    Context is the important element, unfortunately too many are too eager and quick to look for offence just from the appearance of certain words without fully considering how they are used.

    Variations of meaning can also be cultural, must we stop using certain words because they have negative meaning in another country, while those negative connotations don’t exist within your own. Sure it’s something to consider when communicating with someone from that country, but like all communication it’s most effective when you tailor it to your audience.

  39. Charlottesville was a turning point because a left-wing protester was murdered. By a far right extremist. It highlighted that things had gotten to the point where the newly ascendant “alt-right” were comfortable with being openly violent and were removing any remaining veil they had over their fascistic, white supremacist tendencies. It set the mood for what to expect from the Trump era.

    Any person on the centre-left side of the ledger who cites Charlottesville as a motivation was motivated by this factor, not the removal of a statue.

  40. From The Guardian Australia:

    Lieutenant general, John Frewen, is appearing before the Covid committee, explaining that since he came on board in week 16 of the vaccine rollout, Australia has gone from 5.2m vaccine doses administered to 10.6m in week 22.

    Frewen revealed he will release the national vaccination plan after national cabinet today – including three main themes: “coordination and efficiency”, “public confidence and getting people motivated”, and ensuring the rollout is “safe and efficient”.

    Labor’s Katy Gallagher is querying why it has taken this long to develop a plan. Frewen agreed that these are three areas where we “can make enhancements”, but stops short of calling the previous plan deficient.

    Frewen gave an update on vaccination rates in aged and disability care:

    * Aged care residents: 86.3% have received their first dose and 82.3% are fully vaccinate
    * Aged care workers: 47.2% have had a first dose and 27.8% are fully vaccinated
    * Disability residents: 57.7% have had a first dose, and 34.7% are fully vaccinated
    * Disability workers: 50.9% have had a first dose and 27.3% are fully vaccinated

    The health department secretary, Brendan Murphy, is explaining that the federal health department (not national cabinet) had decided to jab residents first before staff – despite both being in category 1A – because of international experience about staff absences after vaccination.

  41. Bushfire Bill says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 10:43 am
    Phil Coorey appears to have shaken off his infatuation with The Woman Who Saved Australia.

    If Phil had bothered to do the hard yards .. the research & background instead of just accepting the privileged feed from Gladys & Scott he wouldn’t have to retract his praise.

    Ie don’t be a lazy journalist

  42. Morrison and his cronies with gladys and her cronies are showing only a glimpse of what would had happen if Newsld and the lib/nats got their way in no state/territory border closures and no lockdowns

  43. Laura Tingle said last night that Leigh Sales is still on holiday and will be returning “soon”. The suggestions about Tingle becoming permanent must have reached a threshold that the producers felt needed to be answered.

  44. Wat

    As I said an extreme culture war by the right.

    That’s who is using woke in a derogatory way.
    This is the same culture war that sees the US vaccination rates almost exactly mirror the voting map.

  45. lizzie @ #194 Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 8:56 am

    Laura Tingle said last night that Leigh Sales is still on holiday and will be returning “soon”. The suggestions about Tingle becoming permanent must have reached a threshold that the producers felt needed to be answered.

    It will be telling if Morrison avoids 7:30 whilst Tingle is hosting and then appears shortly after Sales returns.

  46. Nick Feik
    @NickFeik
    ·
    7m
    “The rollout has been working with the supply available,” says Frewen. “You deal with what you have available. When do you ever have enough?”

    We’re in the Zen phase of the committee hearing.

  47. a r

    As I said yesterday, there is an argument for getting AZ right now and then getting a Pfizer 2nd shot 4+ weeks later. The problem is that the government hasn’t moved to authorise mixed vaccines.

    Another problem is that the government (and that idiot Brendan) haven’t yet realised we all need a booster and I fear that the idea of a booster shot will be resisted for political reasons (it will delay “full vaccination”).

    What I’m certain of is that booster shots should be prioritised for those who have had 2 AZ shots. The jury is still out on the question of how effective 1 shot of AZ followed by 1 shot of Pfizer is, compared to 2 shots of Pfizer. In any case, Pfizer itself has said that its effectiveness decays over time and Israel are already headed to boosters. So I think its reasonable to have a policy of a 3rd shot for everyone.

  48. Asha Leu says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 10:45 am

    Recon:

    For me the low point of the ‘Right’s entry into musical criticism was their disrespect and glee when Kurt Cobain committed suicide. It was sickening. Kurt had been vocal as a supporter of gay rights and feminism and the hate poured upon him when he died still disturbs me to this day to be honest.

    Being only six years old when Cobain took his life (I later become a big Nirvana fan in my teens), I genuinely was not aware of that horrible fact until now. Funny how some things seem to get forgotten by history.
    _______
    The worst of it was done by that Rush Limbaugh, but there were others. I won’t repeat what was said. Limbaugh was the US radio announcer who would also gleefully and regularly read an ‘aids update’ where he would list the names of gay men who had died of AIDS. A truly hate filled individual.

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