By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad

’Tis the night before a Queensland state by-election; we may not have seen the last of Nick Xenophon; Labor picks candidates for key Melbourne seats; plus further matters for those with a professional interest in our nation’s electoral affairs.

Election news:

• The Palaszczuk government faces what it may now think a fortuitously timed by-election tomorrow in the southern Brisbane seat of Stretton. The seat was vacated by the late Duncan Pegg, who retained it for Labor by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. The intimidating margin has not stopped Liberal National Party taking the field, together with the Greens, Animal Justice and the Informed Medical Options Party. My guide to the by-election can be found here; tune in tomorrow for live results, my page for which awaits the numbers here.

Jack Morphet of the Sunday Mail reports Nick Xenophon is “seriously considering another tilt at federal politics”, ostensibly because the federal government has failed to protect the rights of Australian producers to market sheepskin boots as ugg boots, the name of which is trademarked by an American company.

• The Herald Sun reports Labor’s Victorian preselection process, which has been commandeered by the party’s national executive after a branch-stacking scandal, has confirmed candidates in four marginal Liberal seats. Gladys Liu will defend her negligible margin in Chisholm against Carina Garland, former assistant secretary at Victorian Trades Hall Council, who was chosen ahead of Monash mayor Rebecca Paterson. In Higgins, the once safe Liberal seat that is developing into a three-cornered contest between Liberal, Labor and the Greens, Katie Allen will face Michelle Ananda-Rajah, consultant physician in general medicine and infectious diseases at Alfred Health. In Casey, where the Liberals will defend a 4.6% margin in the absence of retiring incumbent Tony Smith, Labor has again chosen its candidate from 2019, engineer and small business owner Bill Brindle. In Deakin, which Michael Sukkar holds for the Liberals by 4.7%, the Labor candidate is Matthew Gregg, a teacher.

From the world of academia (Queensland chapter):

• In the Australian Journal of Politics and History, Paul Williams of Griffith University offers Queensland’s role in the 2019 Australian federal election: a case study of regional difference (paywalled, naturally). Williams argues the Coalition’s strong federal performance in Queensland can be understood in terms of its six diverse regions and five elements of its political culture. The former reflect the state’s decentralisation and reliance on primary industries, which show up demographically in low educational attainment, high religious observance and a paucity of migrants. The political culture elements are “a predilection for strong, masculine political leadership; a zealotry for state development; a disproportionate focus on regional and rural districts in budgetary allocations; a pragmatically flexible approach to policy-making” (the Humphrey Appleby-esque note struck by the latter would seem to be deliberate) and “a parochial chauvinism celebrating a Queensland difference, and drawing a moral superiority from it”.

• In the Australian Journal of Political Science, Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland and Tracey Arklay of Griffith University are rethinking voter identification: its rationale and impact. This includes an analysis of Queensland’s one-off experiment with a soft voter identification regime in 2015, which reaches the unsurprising conclusion that migrant and especially indigenous areas had the greatest number of voters needing to lodge provisional votes for want of acceptable identification on the day. For this reason, and despite the measure’s clearly modest impact on the voting returns, the paper concludes “there is no real case for voter ID in Australia”, which it deems “a solution in search of a problem”.

Psephological arcana:

• In keeping with its code of conduct obligations as a member of the recently launched Australian Polling Council, YouGov has published methodology statements for the last four Newspoll surveys. Among other things, these fully detail the questionnaires that were presented to the respondents.

• David Barry has developed a tool for exploring Senate preference flows at the 2019 election using the ballot paper data files, which is immensely nifty if you can work out how to use it.

• A Tasmanian Electoral Commission report into the recent state election, which unusually coupled a statewide lower house election with one of the state’s periodic upper house elections for two of the chamber’s 15 seats, finds over 6% of those who ought to have lodged an upper house vote did not do so because they attended a booth in the wrong part of the electorate, and a further 1% were not issued with a ballot due to staff error. It argues against the contention that this should invalidate the election, since the errors in the former case were committed by the voters rather than the commission, and the latter were too few in number to affect the results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,674 comments on “By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad”

Comments Page 2 of 34
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  1. V
    NSW has gone from gold standard to second rate quarantine, a divided community, hundreds of thousands of AZ shots going to waste, a mock down, and an out-of-control pandemic.
    I blame ATAGI.

  2. Meteorologist Eric Holthaus shared a radar image of an incoming typhoon to the south, which he warned could hit the Japanese capital by the end of the weekend.

    The storm is yet to be fully formed, making trajectory predictions extremely difficult for storm trackers. Any potential impact to the Tokyo Olympics is still five days away, with the full impact on the proceedings almost impossible to predict for meteorologists.

    90W INVEST:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#90W

    “An invest in meteorology is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development.”

  3. I am probably preaching to the choir. Having trashed ATAGI as Michelle Grattan has pointed out in the Conversation who trusts the advice is not political, instead of medical?

    We know full well vaccine is not available. Without the trashing of ATAGI we would probably say cool great when the vaccine is available.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pfizer-vaccine-approved-for-children-aged-12-to-15-years-by-therapeutic-goods-administration-20210723-p58c8i.html

    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-morrison-wrong-to-try-to-influence-advice-from-expert-immunisation-group-164966

  4. Boerwar

    It is Morrisons incompetence, but GladysB had the opportunity to support the Labor states demanding purpose built quarantine, and she basically said yeah nah. We in NSW dont think it is necessary.

    She can stew in her juices quite frankly.

  5. Vic,
    Have you heard anything more in Victoria about the dedicated quarantine facility that the Andrews government wants to build?


  6. boerwarsays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:27 am
    ‘sprocket_ says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:19 am

    Sulpher crested cockatoos are the wombats of the sky’
    __________________________________
    Classic deflection.
    The core truth here is that wombats are the wombats of the earth.

    Cockatoos are breaking flatbeans (not the leaves) from the Beans creeper on the back wall of my house as I speak and eating the beans.

    Also, I have Mandarin tree in my house and about 50 mandarins came to fruition this season. But one day about 6 weeks ago when I looked at the tree, about 30 of them were bitten off from tree and bitten into pieces. The neighbour has dogs and they did not bark. So I was not sure whether it was Possum or Cockatoos that did that destruction.

  7. Vensays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:38 am

    Steelydansays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:17 am
    The ABC has officially left the reservation,

    That is a racist comment.

    I heard a few weeks that left the reservation has now been added to the racist language list. Two weeks and you are on to it yet you did not know it was racist until you were told it was.

    Get a life mate, be yourself. Act in good faith and try to be a good person. Don’t get sucked in the group think be a lefty and go hard but be yourself FFS


  8. Kirkysays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:33 am
    Steelydan,

    You’ve got a hide. One person and one person specifically has been politicising the pandemic and he resides in the Lodge.

    Get off you high horse.

    And Steelydan’s post starts with a racist sentence.

  9. Has anyone found out why Lt Gen JJ Frewin resigned from his job as Vaccination Commandant?

    Do you have a link, C@tmomma? I couldn’t find anything.

  10. SteelyDan

    Cultural change is slow. It can take time for people to realise that something that has been used for decades. Something imported from overseas is racist.

    We are all individuals and find out these things at different times.
    So in fact it’s awareness not being a sheep as change happens.

    This change is imported from the US on this cultural phrase. Appropriate as it’s in the US where this phrase came from.

  11. Jaeger @ #NaN Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 8:57 am

    Has anyone found out why Lt Gen JJ Frewin resigned from his job as Vaccination Commandant?

    Do you have a link, C@tmomma? I couldn’t find anything.

    No, it was just mentioned here yesterday.

    I’m racking my brain and the only thing I can vaguely see coming through the mist is a story on the ABC website.

  12. Wally Wallpaper has morphed into Ronnie Radio – back on racist and homophobic Kyle and Jackie-O FM radio, where the big issues are discussed, like:

    ‘Morrison declined to weigh in on reports that Caitlyn Jenner – who is in hotel quarantine in Australia before appearing on Big Brother (which is a show that still exists?) – was seen flicking a cigarette off her balcony. Fun!’


  13. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:49 am
    Has anyone found out why Lt Gen JJ Frewin resigned from his job as Vaccination Commandant?

    Did he? I didn’t know that.

  14. UK Cartoons:

    Steve Bell on Boris Johnson’s plan for Covid passports #pingdemic #Isolation #BorisJohnson #Covid_19

    Brian Adcock: Boris must be scared to do another U-turn. #pingdemic #Isolation #BorisJohnsonIsAliar #Covid_19

    Andy Davey on #CovidPassports #BorisJohnson #1922Committee #COVID19 #ThirdWave

    Kal: The Failing

    Christian Adams on #Hamlet #BorisJohnson #pingdemic

    PAUL THOMAS on birthday presents

    Peter Brookes on #PritiPatel #Refugees #Popularism_19

  15. Thanks, Vic. I expect Dan Andrews will be there with his hard hat and high vis vest when construction gets underway. 🙂

  16. VicGovDH
    @VicGovDH
    ·
    1m
    There are 14 new locally-acquired COVID-19 cases which are all linked to the current outbreaks. 10 of the 14 cases were in quarantine throughout their entire infectious period with 1 of the other 4 cases still to be interviewed. 14,302 vaccine doses were administered yesterday.

  17. Andrew Leigh
    @ALeighMP
    · 11h
    Australia has never seen public waste on this scale. New figures suggest that $13 billion in JobKeeper was splashed on firms with rising earnings. That’s enough money to build a dozen hospitals, and more than the federal govt spends on public schools. @ABC730 @DanConifer #auspol

    When Labor complains about this waste, the media (example, Fran) calls them whingers.

  18. Apropos nothing in particular, but there was a story yesterday on the news that Working from Home during the pandemic has seen people being hit with very large Energy bills that they hadn’t counted on.

  19. lizzie @ #NaN Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 9:04 am

    Andrew Leigh
    @ALeighMP
    · 11h
    Australia has never seen public waste on this scale. New figures suggest that $13 billion in JobKeeper was splashed on firms with rising earnings. That’s enough money to build a dozen hospitals, and more than the federal govt spends on public schools. @ABC730 @DanConifer #auspol

    When Labor complains about this waste, the media (example, Fran) calls them whingers.

    I bet Fran did a lot of ‘whinging’ about School Halls and Pink Batts.


  20. Steelydansays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:54 am
    Vensays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:38 am

    Steelydansays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:17 am
    The ABC has officially left the reservation,

    That is a racist comment.

    I heard a few weeks that left the reservation has now been added to the racist language list. Two weeks and you are on to it yet you did not know it was racist until you were told it was.

    Get a life mate, be yourself. Act in good faith and try to be a good person. Don’t get sucked in the group think be a lefty and go hard but be yourself FF

    ‘left the reservation’ is referred to as racist phrase in US for a long time and not 2 weeks ago. I did not know that it was added to language list 2 weeks ago or not. So I do not understand what you are trying to say. Maybe leftists in US are using referring like that.

  21. Re Steely Dan @8:17.

    I am assuming that this is the story: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-23/queensland-coronavirus-vaccination-astrazeneca-rare-blood-clot/100315488

    This is the last of seven Covid-related stories down the left column of the landing page of the ABC News site. It is simply describing something that happened. The tone is measured and impartial, not sensational. It reports that the lady is recovering and that she urges people to get vaccinated. The rarity of the condition is emphasised. This looks like responsible reporting to me.

    So what are you saying? That we should have wartime-style censorship on stories of negative vaccine side-effects? Would you attack this story if it appeared in the Daily Rupert?

  22. Victoriasays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:48 am
    Boerwar

    It is Morrisons incompetence, but GladysB had the opportunity to support the Labor states demanding purpose built quarantine, and she basically said yeah nah. We in NSW dont think it is necessary.

    She can stew in her juices quite frankly.

    Some logistics here ie 1. the number of people who have returned to Australia since Covid 2. the time taken to build purpose built quarantine facilities = about bugger all returning from OS since Covid and facilities other then tents built about now. Not gonna happen, Hotel quarantine only if you want to return.

    Victoria may get on top of this one but if it does not the next, basically means Victoria can not do any better than NSW. Please get off your high horse. Remember 820 deaths (by deaths I mean a human being like you and me) in Victoria 915 for Australia. When this thing started Victoria track and trace for shit 820 deaths bloody hell they had to get better.

  23. Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    1h
    The PM has been diagnosed with the debilitating
    condition known as Tingles…fear of women.

  24. Q: New figures suggest that $13 billion in JobKeeper was splashed on firms with rising earnings.

    Yes enough to host 3 Olympic Games, or build 6 Royal Adelaide Hospitals (Australias largest and newest)!!!

    Has anyone noticed tht Morrisons ‘non-sorry sorry’ has sunk wthout a trace. Seems the media is tiring of his pointless daily ánnouncables.

  25. Ven says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:52 am

    Also, I have Mandarin tree in my house and about 50 mandarins came to fruition this season. But one day about 6 weeks ago when I looked at the tree, about 30 of them were bitten off from tree and bitten into pieces. The neighbour has dogs and they did not bark. So I was not sure whether it was Possum or Cockatoos that did that destruction.’
    _____________________________
    That sounds like Tree Wombat behaviour to me: climbs trees, eats, roots, and leaves your precious mandarins on the ground.

    Tree Wombats are a subspecies of your more common Common Wombat. Scientific monicker:
    Vombatis ursinus arboris

  26. I have no truck with “racist language” but surely criticising the use of “going off the reservation” is just nit-picking. And, it might be said, just who is the arbiter in such matters?
    As the circus moves on certain words go in and out of use….offensive words in one generation become innocuous in others….and vice versa.
    When I was a kid I can never, ever remember the f*64u85ck word being bandied about whereas today, in all walks/levels of society this succinct Anglo-Saxon word is done to death…….including on this esteemed site……Fuck it, might as well join the crowd!

  27. Steve777says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 9:08 am
    Re Steely Dan @8:17.

    I am assuming that this is the story: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-23/queensland-coronavirus-vaccination-astrazeneca-rare-blood-clot/100315488

    This is the last of seven Covid-related stories down the left column of the landing page of the ABC News site. It is simply describing something that happened. The tone is measured and impartial, not sensational. It reports that lady is recovering and that she urges people to get vaccinated. The rarity of the condition is emphasised. This looks like responsible reporting to me.

    So what are you saying? That we should have wartime-style censorship on stories of negative vaccine side-effects? Would you attack this story if it appeared in the Daily Rupert?

    Can’t help you buddy if you don’t see the timing involved a picture of a woman with tubes in her mouth in an induced coma,. Yep exactly what the public broadcaster should be showing. Again shameful.

  28. Steelydan

    This pandemic started in January 2020.

    We are almost in August 2021

    Morrison has been derelict in his duty as commonwealth govt to provide adequate quarantine.

    Hotel quarantine was a stop gap measure.

    And also the deaths occurred in federally run aged care which was also the remit of the federal govt.

    Morrison and co have failed this country time and time again.

    I have no frickin high horse to jump off.

    The truth is the frickin truth.

    Morrison is and always has been an imposter.

  29. Why haven’t we all had two jabs of the appropriate age-safe vaccinations plus the necessary booster ALREADY?

    What a fuck up. They can get billions of corrupt money to rich schools, rich people and rich corporations who don’t need it but they can’t get millions of jabs into people who do.

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.THEY.FUCK.UP.

  30. VicGovDH @VicGovDH

    There are 14 new locally-acquired COVID-19 cases which are all linked to the current outbreaks. 10 of the 14 cases were in quarantine throughout their entire infectious period with 1 of the other 4 cases still to be interviewed. 14,302 vaccine doses were administered yesterday.

  31. Steelydan @ #29 Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 8:17 am

    We are doomed if this gets out of hand people will die instead of taking
    AstraZeneca. Shameful.

    Nope. The one and only reason why there’s an issue with people not taking AstraZeneca is because we don’t have enough Pfizer. The solution is to get more Pfizer ASAP, not to tell everyone to take a vaccine they don’t want.

    Why isn’t the government getting more Pfizer ASAP, and why aren’t you criticizing them for it?

  32. @DanielBleakley tweets

    Coal workers should be taken care of during the clean tech transition & the Australian gov has loads of capacity to do that.

    For just $4B per year the gov could pay each of the 40k coal workers a $100k fossil fuel pension.

    It gave the coal industry $10B in subsidies last year.

  33. Tricot

    I agree. I was thinking the other day that the use of Virgin as a trade name was shocking at first. Many others to do with sexual activity were never used.

  34. 14 local cases, 10 of which were in quarantine obviously being a close contact of a positive case.

    Other 4 are also linked to current cases, but not clear as to their isolation status.
    The health dept are still interviewing

  35. ‘Tricot says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 9:14 am

    I have no truck with “racist language” but surely criticising the use of “going off the reservation” is just nit-picking. And, it might be said, just who is the arbiter in such matters?’
    …’
    __________________________________________
    This is an interesting post, IMO, and raises some interesting questions.

    ‘Going off the reservation’ refers to times when First Nations warriors went off the reservations and commenced warfare against the white invaders. The reservations themselves were where First Nation remnants were herded onto (usually) economically useless bits of (often literally) starvation country, often following massacres of First Nations by white invaders.

    There is thus no doubt at all that there is a race context to the phrase.

    But is it pejorative? The phrase implies that the only rightful place for First Nations was a reservation. Further, the implication is that First Nations were misbehaving when they left the reservation – the place deemed to be suitable for them by the civilized whie race. Further, it implies that white violence is morally acceptable but that First Nation’s violence shows intemperance. Clearly, it is pejorative.

    But is it nitpicking, as you ask?

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