First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.
There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.
Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.
The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.
Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.
All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.
The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.
The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.
a r @ #352 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:11 pm
Well, that’s grammar not spelling. I’m also a pedant. 😆
“ 14.52% fully vaccinated, 35.62% partially vaccinated as at 20 mins ago.”
These figure are a bit misleading because they are only for 17+ so they can’t be used for herd immunity.
lizzie
Well done.
As children it made no sense at all. But dad would hammer away until we all got it. Probably because his mother, our grandmother, was a teacher; and a Catholic (hence our knowledge of the OT).
An aside, I don’t think I have rendered it correctly. Because I remember there were commas involved. But, maybe, my memory is faulty.
Morrison has told us nothing either helpful or new yet.
I’m sure he’s telling fibs somewhere in the torrent of words, but I no longer care.
I was hoping Morrison was going to do the honourable thing and announce his resignation.
Not sure if others have seen Morrison’s less than stellar appearance on Adelaide and Melbourne radio this morning.
“After the interview, Hawkins said he was “more frustrated than I was before I spoke to him”.
“Just don’t be a robot, have a normal bloody conversation,” he told his listeners. “We say it on this team, if someone stuffs up at work or in a relationship, you know what, ‘hey babe, my bad’, and then move on.
“You’re very quick to come out and say all the good shit you’ve done, just say the word sorry, screwed that up and we’ll get it right, it’s not hard.”
The morning radio blitz also took Morrison to Adelaide, where he defended his comment earlier in the year that the national program was “not a race” – which he claimed related to the vaccine safety approvals.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/21/scott-morrison-refuses-to-apologise-for-covid-vaccine-rollout-in-clash-with-kiis-fm-host
“I’m responsible” seem to be the hardest words. “Sorry” is out of the question.
Keep it up Greens and Labor. Morrison is feeling the pressure on payments.
Edit: I even saw Janet Albrechrechtsen tweet $600 was not enough.
kezza2
The ability to parse a sentence is good training in logic. I found Latin very helpful rather than English lessons.
‘phoenixRED says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 1:32 pm
An Oregon wildfire is so intense it is literally creating its own weather system
Southern Oregon is currently being consumed by a conflagration known as the Bootleg Fire. It has already devoured more than 606 square miles at the time of this writing (an area larger than the city of Los Angeles) and has only been 30 percent contained. The behemoth blaze is accelerating its growth, and has been growing by 80 square miles per day or more.
…’
__________________________
While the area already burned is a useful thing to know, it would be far more useful to report the length of the fire front. I assume that ‘30% contained’ means that the fire is only advancing along 70% of its total length.
Now he’s spewing out a Hunt-style numbers salad!
Alright SfM, now commonwealth payments are at the low job keeper level, what about jobseeker payments? Will those go back to previous support as this lockdown is no different that the last.
If you want to grow the economy out of it increase jobseeker again.
guytaur @ #406 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:40 pm
Pity he didn’t pay Pfizer last year and take up their offer ..!
Henry @ #398 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:36 pm
Marketing the government.
Morrison is not sorry for locking down half of Australia.
Morrison is not sorry for buggering up quarantine.
Morrison is not sorry for buggering up vaccinations.
MORRISON.IS.NOT.SORRY.FOR.ANY.SINGLE.THING.HE.TOUCHES.
Who is the endorsed Labor candidate for Deakin?
Teacher Matthew Gregg was selected as Labor’s candidate for the seat of Deakin according to the Herald Sun.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #411 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:42 pm
He’d rather not.
Where does it say provisional? My god, you’re pathetic. And by the way, again from the government site. Or did your idol start vaccinations without full approval?
COVID-19 vaccinations will begin in Australia. The Prime Minister, the Chief Medical Officer, and the Chief Nursing and Midwifery Officer, officially launched Australia’s vaccination program today.21 Feb 2021.
Seems management is happy with out and out lies as well as personal abuse.
Oh he is channeling the great Sir Joh…
Now don’t you worry about that…
TPOF @ #354 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:13 pm
I see what you did there. 🙂
boerwar @ #414 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:43 pm
I swear if you look back at Romper Room you’d find little Scott Morrison was a Busy Bee.
Dixer helpfully allowing Morrison to shift responsibility to ATAGI.
lizzie
Latin. Took a unit at Monash. Loved it.
Then the Classics dept was abolished. Shame, Monash, shame.
TPOF,
Sheesh! 😳
Sermonising, hectoring arse-covering garbage!
BK @ #424 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:46 pm
As long as he is dominating the bandwidth.
To get out of trouble Morrison praises Victoria
Canada up to 80% first dose vaccinated puts Australia to shame ?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-20/canada-reopen-borders-fully-vaccinated-international-travellers/100306136
I sallied fourth, and came fifth.
kezza2 @ #422 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:46 pm
I did Latin all the way through High School. Loved it!
Wow that was a great question from the journalist on vaccines.
Morrison blaming Delta for the problems. All would have been fine without it. 😮
guytaur
What was it?
He was persistent too. 🙂
Cud about Pfizer and what would he say to the older 80 or so people hesitant on AZ
Roy Orbison says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 1:44 pm
Where does it say provisional? My god, you’re pathetic. And by the way, again from the government site. Or did your idol start vaccinations without full approval?
COVID-19 vaccinations will begin in Australia. The Prime Minister, the Chief Medical Officer, and the Chief Nursing and Midwifery Officer, officially launched Australia’s vaccination program today.21 Feb 2021.
Seems management is happy with out and out lies as well as personal abuse.
_______________-
My dear Roy, the health.gov website indicated the first shipment of Pfizer arrived on 14 April.
Best,
Lars
Sfm Don’t hold up UK vac rates and the Alka-Selzter vaccines as their primary weapon as a success on one hand, just 10 mins ago you said how grave the situation was in the UK with c70k cases and loads of deaths, not a good model to follow.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 1:39 pm
I was hoping Morrison was going to do the honourable thing and announce his resignation.
—————-
Lol Rex
C@t
Lucky you.
I wasn’t bad at languages; shame about the accent!
The UK is hosting a Chicken Pox party for all you kiddies…
They obviously have been reading Melanie’s Marvelous Measles.
Fuck off Lars.
Thanks Roy for the quick fact check.
“ The Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was approved by the TGA for use in Australia on 25 January 2021, after a rigorous assessment and approval process.”
Thanks y’all, for the commentary.
I couldn’t bear watching either Gladbag or Morrison.
Trying to distract myself.
Ok useless MSM, who’s going to call out his lie from earlier today when he said his “not a race” comments were in relation to TGA approval, when they patently were not, ergo he lied.
Its all good, I am relieved to hear that Jen and Scotts family have had their shots of Alka-selzter, just surprised they didnt get phizer when Sfm did.
SfM fails in sales pitch…
“We’re up to it and we’ll deal with it, just as we’ve dealt with each and every one of the challenges to date,”
Oh Scotty , you and your weasely words.What does being ‘respectful’ actually mean ? Any of the following – Heeded ? Acted on ? Followed their advice ? Believed ? Nah , can’t be otherwise you would have used words like them eh.
“ My dear Roy, the health.gov website indicated the first shipment of Pfizer arrived on 14 April.”
Exactly. So, 11 weeks after approval.
Fuck off Lars.
kezza2
After High School, I was tutored for a year by an elderly Anglican Minister who must have been the last remnant of 19th century schooling. Each week I had to learn a page of Latin text and repeat it to him, then answer comprehension questions. Luckily I could read it only a couple of times, and it was stored in my memory. It was supposed to make me fluent in writing Latin!
SfM…
“With these rates of vaccination, we will get to where we want to,”
where is that & when will it happen???
Morrison is still ideologically failing. He doesn’t see how payments in arrears and excluding anyone from social security from support increases movement in lockdown.
Sceptic @ #447 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:56 pm
‘It’s not a race.’ 🙄
Though he apparently never said that about the vaccination rollout. Except he did. But today he said he didn’t. And around and around we go.