First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.
There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.
Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.
The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.
Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.
All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.
The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.
The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.
a r @ #344 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:04 pm
I’m at a loss with what’s happening in NSW.
Seems only vaccinations is the only way out …. but Morrison…
Cud Chewer at 12:55 pm
Bad Vlad already has. He was a skeptic back in the day but recent remarks from him say he is now a ‘believer’. Also looking to use it to improve US -Russia relations. The obvious signs of thawing of the permafrost regions and the bigly bad that portends for Russia was I reckon the big wake up call for them.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/putin-says-russias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-should-be-lower-than-eus-2021-04-21/
.
Russia and the U.S. can work together to combat climate change, Putin says
https://fortune.com/2021/07/14/russia-us-work-together-to-combat-climate-change-putin-kerry/
C@tmomma @ #340 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:01 pm
Only thing I could find was this:
Missing apostrophe in there.
Clem attlee
It’s not just the ABC, other networks are trying to elevate the shit show in NSW to Victoria.
Saying six were not fully isolating. Yet NSW has 10 times that amount not isolating and it is reported with less concern.
The media continue to be shit
This dhead represents the Vic Libs..
Behold in all its ‘inglory’…………….
C@t and AR, if you sally fourth just a little way into the report you will see it. 🙂
Rex Douglas
The fibs and their merry followers have been next to useless during this pandemic.
I guess these removalists dont believe they have caused enough strife here in Victoria.
@TrudyMcIntosh tweets
The Prime Minister will hold press conference at the Lodge in Canberra at 1pm.
They are also making distinct between journalists who are vaccinated – see Media Note on the press release.
‘poroti says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 1:11 pm
Cud Chewer at 12:55 pm
Bad Vlad already has. He was a skeptic back in the day but recent remarks from him say he is now a ‘believer’. Also looking to use it to improve US -Russia relations. The obvious signs of thawing of the permafrost regions and the bigly bad that portends for Russia was I reckon the big wake up call for them.
…’
_________________________________
In the early days Putin and Medvedev used to brag about how global warming would up vast new grain growing areas. Since then they have had occasionally to put a ban on grain exports from Russia because heat cooked the crops, their forests are looking drunk and infrastructure built on permafrost is collapsing. OTOH, they are getting an economic benefit from North about opening of the Arctic, most summers.
Learning by doing?
Labor has opened preselections for the final (‘unwinnable’) seats in Victoria.
Reporters younger than 40 not preferred in other words?
lizzie @ #356 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 1:14 pm
JFC !!
Just piss off you morons !!!!
Who is the endorsed Labor candidate for Deakin?
Of course it isn’t. China will be using all its wolf warrior diplomacy to try to stop Australia getting the Olympics:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-21/ioc-brisbane-olympics-not-done-deal-2032/100310768
Is Morrison going to announce a proper jobkeeper 2.0
“Reporters younger than 40 not preferred in other words?”
Only Jane Norman will be allowed to ask questions.
Morrison late to his own presser – AGAIN!
bw
Spending 10 billion on a coal rail line to China isn’t a good sign.
14.52% fully vaccinated, 35.62% partially vaccinated as at 20 mins ago.
Great to see it accelerating now!
Fingers crossed
See new Tweets
Conversation
Bridget Rollason
@bridgerollo
The
@VictorianCHO
says “22 is a large number and may look concerning, but the 16 of 22 fully isolating for their entire infectious period is a really good sign… It may even be within a couple of days we don’t see anyone infectious in the community.”
@abcmelbourne
#springst
12:01 PM · Jul 21, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
lizzie,
Speaking of commas, dad used to try to trick us with this one:
Now explain how it is that “Moses is the daughter of the Pharoah’s son? or something like that.
If Morrison is going to avoid the unvaccinated, he’ll be avoiding a high percentage of his constituents. So what’s new?
This is a killer…
Lars
There’s a delay between preselections and announcements, so that background checking can be undertaken.
Lars Van Pollyanna.
Shilling for the worst government since federation.
Nothing new under the sun.
Those numbers would have been acceptable … for March. Dickhead.
So they have been pre-selected but not announced? Won’t it leak?
boerwar at 1:15 pm
I’d forgotten about that cunning plan re wheat. It sounded lol worthy enough at the time let alone ‘these days’ .
Hmmm
Chris O’Keefe
@cokeefe9
·
1h
Premier Berejiklian complaining we don’t have enough doses of vaccine, yet her health minister admits he has not used the extra 150k AZ sent to state clinics for the south west. Victoria has administered 400k AZ, NSW 100k. If there’s vaccine- use them!
@9NewsAUS
…OK, Deakin would have been announced, but I’ve lost the email!
Um Earlwood you know the vaccines weren’t approved for use by the TGA until late March don’t you?
So this Morrison presser is the first event subject to a vaccination passport!
kezza2
No commas, but quotes would do it for me.
Moses is “the daughter of the Pharoah”’s son.
If you base your aim of herd immunity purely on vaccination, you will never get there as the current vaccines aren’t approved below 18 yo. We actually have to vaccinate EVERYONE including kids.
And that’s without the virus evolving.
“The son of the Pharaoh’s daughter is the daughter of [the] Pharaoh’s son.”
Rex:
Not sure about the positioning of that arrow. Almost looks like they’re accusing Scomo of being a deadbeat dad.
When the UK was on an upward spike in Jan at a similar point (around 45k positives a day). Deaths were at around the 600 per day mark. They hit a peak of 1800 deaths in a day (1,200 rolling 7 day avg) in late Jan.
Peak case numbers 8th Jan were at 69k in a day.
We’re about to see how this plays out – remember deaths lag infections by around 3-4 weeks. This spike has not yet peaked. However current indications seem to point to vaccinations significantly lowering the death rate and the toll in the coming wave will be big.
An Oregon wildfire is so intense it is literally creating its own weather system
Southern Oregon is currently being consumed by a conflagration known as the Bootleg Fire. It has already devoured more than 606 square miles at the time of this writing (an area larger than the city of Los Angeles) and has only been 30 percent contained. The behemoth blaze is accelerating its growth, and has been growing by 80 square miles per day or more.
It is also doing something that makes it much more difficult to manage: creating its own weather.
https://www.rawstory.com/oregon-wildfire-weather-system/
>14.52% fully vaccinated, 35.62% partially vaccinated as at 20 mins ago.
Great to see it accelerating now!
A pathetic effort but good to see the rate accelerating. It needs to keep accelerating at an ever greater rate.
It is a race – not against other nations but against the Virus. However, comparisons do give us an idea of where we are verses where should be. Were we are is 38/38 in the OECD.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-australia-dead-last-in-oecd-for-vaccinated-people/51dbd565-25fe-4e07-891f-2c689c39c467
From the Health.gov.au website:
The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was approved for use in Australia on
16 February 2021 following the TGA’s rigorous assessment and approval process. This includes assessment of its safety, quality and effectiveness.
The Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was approved by the TGA for use in Australia on 25 January 2021, after a rigorous assessment and approval process.
Why do Liberal shills lie so much. How is either 16/ Feb or Jan 25 late March?
Management seems to approve, though, so all good.
What international crisis has made Morrison 30 mins late?
What a braggard!
ABC Radio had yet another epidimologist saying the UK plan was to let covid rip – because they had such high vaccination rates (hence lower death rates) and that this would tip them over into herd immunity and end the pandemic in the UK.
Is that right?
I wonder if a journalist will dare ask if the limo driver was vaccinated what would Australia look like today?
I think you’ll find that was provisional approval fat roy.
Ah, this is the presser where he excuses delays in vaccinations.
So scomo is just re-announcing Hunt’s meaningless word salad vaccination stats.
Seriously, what’s the point of this guy.
Lizzie
He is doing damage control
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/21/scott-morrison-refuses-to-apologise-for-covid-vaccine-rollout-in-clash-with-kiis-fm-host