First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.
There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.
Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.
The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.
Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.
All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.
The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.
The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.
The pack are overshouting Berejiklian from time to time.
Glad and Health Hazzard are getting very close to totally throwing scomo and that twit Hunt under the bus for the vaccination strollout.
Even Hazzard had to restrain himself, “I’d better be careful what I say here”.
It’s unravelling, which in terms of political schadenfreude is delicious but for us poor bastards living in lockdown, is infuriating. This one IS on you scomo.
Berejikilian isn’t saying it. JobKeeper and JobSeeker not in place above poverty line payments are what is keeping workplace movement happening.
Green shoots = stopped exponential growth.
Based on that, if the green shoots were corn, the greens shoots would not actually feed anyone.
C@tmomma,
The dots are a daily sign of being screened into an area e.g. hospital or another government department. Different colour each day.
Gladys has resorted to “This is terrible, but at least we’re not as bad as the UK.”
… that all-enveloping wallpaper…
Victoria, good point.
That last sentence especially. Also, I fear (know) that once we’ve properly managed the pandemic here and been sufficiently vaccinated etc, we’re not going to care about the disease anymore and it’s going to rage in poorer countries for years to come, and we’re just going to shrug because we’re not affected.
I apologise if that came off as sanctimonious or self-righteous, I guess I am just in one of those moods haha.
Henry
It’s also on GladysB
Our last lockdown in Victoria which was due to leakage from SA quarantine, she went on several platforms to disavow Victoria’s strategy.
She has to cop blame for her management of this outbreak.
Berejiklian now fingering ‘a lack of concentration’ for helping to spread the virus. I trust they wack that factor into the modelling.
Has Gladys’s car quietly gone off to auction?
Wat Tyler
We are all entitled to our mood. Cheers
”
Bushfire Billsays:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 11:24 am
So if we have lower number of tests we will have lower cases.
When Gladys starts advocating smaller testing numbers simply to make the infection numbers seem less bad, then we’ll know she’s ready for the funny farm.
So far she has resisted that kind of Trump Logic.
”
But she did say we have large number of cases because we had large number of tests
BK
I reckon the car will be looking rusty before long. Lol
Berejiklian ‘I am sure that my words will be interpreted in a thousand different ways.’
She does not appear to have a lot of of confidence about how concise her messaging is.
boerwar says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 11:35 am
Ms Berejiklian is now reluctant to what is happening in other states. Hoho.
So one of the unintended benefits of five dead, millions locked down, a cost of $200 million a day, dozens in ICU is that Berejiklian no longer sticks it to the other states.
But is the pain worth it?
Definitely not, but don’t ignore the small silver lining.
What I find particularly entertaining, after months of hanging it on Dan, the right wing nut jobs are now complaining it is too political. Put the pineapple where it hurts.
Was busy last night, I missed the Victorian opposition leaders nightly whinge.
Sad about that, his level of stupidity does have a small entertainment value.
They must be circling the wagons. Barilaro is up for a chat.
Hazzard sounds grumpy and Foley is painful.
frendk
I rather enjoy doing compare and contrast between that turkey and Albanese.
They face exactly the same set of political problems. One does headless chook.
The other one is Albanese.
@MinnsChris tweets
It is a race.
It’s a race to get vaccinated.
And it’s a race to save the NSW economy, businesses and workers.
We need JobKeeper for NSW now.
#nswpol
They should get the Hunters, Shooters and Fishers Party plus the Greens Party plus the Fred Nile Party in to help fix the problem.
@BernardKeane tweets
When Keating unexpectedly won in 1993, he used it for:
-IR reform
-native title
-competition policy
-overhauling super
-sale of Qantas and CBA
-APEC
So far Morrison has used an unexpected win to:
-rort taxpayer money
-reward fossil fuel donors
-make life easier for directors
That pig doesn’t need any more lipstick.
Oh, I see why.
Barilaro is up because the Virus has pierced Berejiklian’s Ring of Steel.
Obeid and McDonald will be disappointed that Berejiklian has stolen their thunder.
Well, that’s a true statement from her, as far as it goes.
I thought she was explaining that the increase isn’t as dire as it first appears to be.
Mind you, she didn’t note that there had been *smaller* testing numbers when the infections *dropped* the other day. Instead we got “green shoots”.
Is someone keeping tabs on “Infections per thousand tested”?
Glad executes the abrupt walk off, leaving a baying press pack.
Yes fair point Victoria.
It all started here when an unmasked and unvaccinated limo driver (and he was following the NSW health protocols at the time so he did nothing wrong) transported an international flight crew to quarantine.
That is a failure of NSW Health and the NSW govt, this is true. Of course other than a quiet readjustment of the protocols post haste there has been no real rebuke of Glad and Brad.
The vibe on that is changing though, which is not before time. I’ve never liked or trusted Gladys (shredders anyone), she has skated through her premiership largely on the back of a compliant media, which finally seem to turning the blowtorch on her.
Griff @ #255 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 11:39 am
Thanks. 🙂
SA Liberal Premier says partial lockdown do NOT work.
ie go hard go early.
Listen to that Gladys you idiot.
Henry
I never particularly appreciated
GladysB dissing Victoria and qld in particular. It was quite unedifying.
Someone needs to ring Dan Andrews and Mark McGowan and ask a favour.
Com’on Dudley Morrison, show some balls!
The optical issue facing Glady is that despite 3 weeks of creeping lockdown the situation is not getting better atm. The figures of infections are on par with what they were at the start. So, what is the point of the Government’s strategy if it is failing to make any impact. This is compounded by other States acting quickly and decisively to lockdown and it looks like Victoria (at least) will be re-opening soon because they are focussed and organised. NSW doesn’t want to talk about other jurisdictions any more.
What I see at the moment is that the virus is actually spreading to new locations in NSW rather than contracting. The mixed messaging and creeping lockdown has only exacerbated the problem for the Government and the people of NSW. Combine that with the stroll out of vaccines being inadequate and you can understand the concern and near panic of the NSW Government atm. The political games being played with the number of infections per day and increasing hysteria in the Press Conferences by the Government does not auger well.
GG
The NSW govt need a completely different strategy that needs to be implemented pronto
GG
Optical illusion?
They are advancing backwards.
I hope Oakshott County is OK.
As a Labor member who has voted (or at least 2PP preferenced) Labor my whole life, I hate to say this but Marshall has actually been really good when it has come to this pandemic. Honestly, if it were just him and not the rest of the incompetents in his party (as well as the right-wingers desperately stacking branches and recruiting from fundamentalist churches to take over), I’d have no problem with him winning next year – especially as the opposition leader isn’t exactly stellar.
(Note: This praise is not transferrable to Morrison, Gladys B or any other Liberal leader.)
Listening to our state and federal politicians only Daniel Andrews knows how to speak properly.
It seems like yesterday that Berejiklian was telling us that we were “in the mopping up phase” when it was actually about ten days ago. Or 15 days into what was originally a 14 day lockdown that is turning into a 70 or 80 day lockdown. If we’re lucky.
She is just as bad at her denials of things she was recorded saying as Morrison, with his “I was taken out of context when I said it wasn’t a race”. On second thoughts, no one can top Morrison when it comes to lying. That IS a gold standard.
The Australian Olympic team has been rocked by a star’s provisional suspension after returning a positive result for cocaine in his system. It emerged on Wednesday morning equestrian debutant Jamie Kermond has returned a positive A-sample for a metabolite of cocaine.
Holdenhillbilly at 11:56 am
It is not as if they didn’t have a few pointers re “go hard go early” . Even the paper that brought us the ‘woman who saved Australia” noticed something early on . Check out the date.
.
.
Mar 29, 2020 – 6.30pm
‘Go hard go early’ might work for NZ
New Zealand’s policy response has been two to three weeks earlier on the COVID-19 curve than Australia’s.
The mantra from the Ardern government has been around the need to “go hard and go early”
https://www.afr.com/world/pacific/go-hard-go-early-might-work-for-nz-20200329-p54eyg
So outdoor transmission is a thing
Heidi Murphy
@heidimur
·
12m
Of the 22 new cases – 2 were seated near the index case at AAMI park at the rugby.
Confirmation also – 1 is a worker on West Gate Tunnel
And 1 is a family member of yesterday’s previously unlinked case. Both of those now linked to the Family from Hume outbreak.
The Rupertium’s flagship joining a couple of dots. Lots of cases because ? 😆
.
NSW case numbers surge after record tests.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-australia-live-news-third-state-135m-people-in-lockdown/news-story/fb655d7fa9f3e891f63aa24b45c69ec6
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Wat Tyler @ #284 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 12:05 pm
As an ex SA person and with a friend in Tassie – Marshall and Gutwein have been good and listened to the health advice. I wonder if the Libs/Nats in NSW are going to unravel.
‘laughtong says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 12:13 pm
Wat Tyler @ #284 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 12:05 pm
SA Liberal Premier says partial lockdown do NOT work.
ie go hard go early.
Listen to that Gladys you idiot.
As a Labor member who has voted (or at least 2PP preferenced) Labor my whole life, I hate to say this but Marshall has actually been really good when it has come to this pandemic.
…’
___________________________________
Praise is due where praise is due, IMO.
In this cold weather, I have great admiration for those willing to wait in their cars for hours to be tested.
Now that we know that the outbreak in SA (and lockdown) is the fault of NSW quarantine, are the media taking Gladys/Hazard to task over what they are going to do to plug obvious holes in the quarantine system? And asking them if they’re prepared to reconsider having fit for purpose quarantine facilities?
Cud Chewer
I think I heard today that Morrison actually said that hotel quarantine is not 100% effective.
Re Wat Tyler @11:14 – being allergic to masks is a bit of a bummer.
Maybe you could talk to your chemist – perhaps he/she can advise. They might be able to point you to hypoallergenic masks that are available (i.e. masks that don’t contain allergy-producing substances).
NSW needs a stricter lockdown. The lockdown could go on forever at this rate.