A preselection, two redistributions and a by-election

An assemblage of random stuff to kick off the new week.

It being the mid-point of the year, we’re about due for Newspoll’s state and demographic aggregates and Essential Research’s dump of voting intention numbers, both of which come along quarterly. In the meantime, there’s the following:

• The Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for a successor to Andrew Laming in Bowman has been won by Henry Pike, media and communications director for the Property Council. Pike was the only male candidate in a field of five, and prevailed despite earlier urgings from the Prime Minister for a woman to be preselected. Madura McCormack of the Courier-Mail reports he won in the final round of the ballot of local preselectors with 107 votes against 88 for Maggie Forrest, a barrister. Pike said last week that comments he made on the subject of “f***ing a fat chick” in a group chat twelve years ago, when he was about 21, do not “reflect the person I’ve grown to be”.

• Antony Green has published a report calculating party vote shares for the draft state redistribution in Victoria. Finalised state boundaries for New South Wales will be along at some unspecified point in the probably not too distant future.

• I have published a guide to the by-election for the Queensland state seat of Stretton, to be held on July 24 to choose a successor to Labor member Duncan Pegg, who resigned in April due to ill health and died on June 10.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,143 comments on “A preselection, two redistributions and a by-election”

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  1. Zerlosays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 4:53 am
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/three-sydney-aged-care-residents-among-16-new-local-cases-of-covid-19-20210704-p586na.html

    Three residents of an aged care home in Sydney’s north-west have tested positive to COVID-19 after a worker contracted the virus. They are among 16 local cases reported on Sunday, 13 of whom were in isolation during their infectious period.

    It brings the tally for the present outbreak to 277 cases.

    The SummitCare facility at Baulkham Hills went into lockdown as two of the residents were transferred to Westmead Hospital as a precautionary measure on Saturday night.

    ———-

    What a fuck up

    Two more in same aged care residents as per ABC.

  2. Australia’s golfers get little respect from the Australian media. So I thought I’d give you my report on Super Saturday. You won’t get better coverage anywhere else.

    ————————————————————————————————

    Saturday was a great day for Australian golf and its young elite golfers.

    Lucas Herbert, 25, from Bendigo won the Irish Open on the European Tour at Mount Juliet in Kilenny by three strokes.

    In the Ladies European Tour, Stephanie Kyriacou, 20 from Sydney won her second title. She is the Tour’s Rookie-of-the-Year.

    Later at Detroit, Cameron Davis, 26, from Sydney won the $7 million PGA event. It was his first win on the world’s major circuit after 71 starts.

    Davis was seemingly out of it in the final round when he bogied the 16th hole to fall two shots out of the lead. He made up for it with a spectacular shot out of the sand for an eagle on the next hole. Then he birdied the 18th to get into a three-man playoff.

    It took five playoff holes for Davis to secure his first win.

    On the first playoff hole, Davis missed a 10-foot putt for the win. He tied with Troy Merritt and had to go to a second playoff hole.

    On the second playoff hole he had a 20 footer for the win but also missed. Merritt parred the hole to tie and send it to a third playoff hole.

    On the third playoff hole Davis had another putt to win, but it also slid by the hole.

    On the fourth sudden death hole, Davis had a 20-footer, but once again he had to settle for a tie.

    On the fifth playoff hole, Davis hit another brilliant shot to within 12 feet but was still unable to close the deal when the putt missed. However Merritt’s tee shot landed in the rough alongside the green and he was unable to get up and down, giving Davis the win..

  3. C@tmomma @ #34 Monday, July 5th, 2021 – 8:43 am

    I just looked at some footage of Drumpf’s latest rally and he appears to be marketing himself to the conservative African American demographic very aggressively as he had two very black African American men in bright white ‘Blacks for Trump’ t-shirts prominent in the front row over his left shoulder.

    That’s nothing new. He’s always made a point of positioning his token minorities/women/other-demographics-that-are-like-90%-opposed-to-him prominently so that his rallies don’t look like the sea of angry middle-aged white men that they are.

    It’s not a bad strategy, necessarily, but it’s about as dishonest and manipulative as everything else Trump does.


  4. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 6:56 am
    So true!

    Simmons says that younger people – especially men under 50 – are the most resistant to getting a jab. Some men seem to believe it as a sign of weakness to get vaccinated. She speaks from personal experience: her 35-year-old husband has declined to get vaccinated.

    “I can’t convince him,” she says. “He just doesn’t think he needs it. He says that he’s healthy and if he were to get COVID, his symptoms would probably be minimal.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/in-the-deep-south-where-they-can-t-give-vaccines-away-20210703-p586ht.html

    Maybe they think it will show how masculine they are to the world.
    Could this be reason Trump and Morrison are popular under the age group of 35-50?

  5. The mass undocumented deaths of children in institutions have a direct parallel with Ireland.

    One wonders whether similar death rates of Indigenous children occurred in Australian settings. To my knowledge this has not, so far, been raised as either a possibility or a probability.

  6. In my excitement got the day wrong. Make it Super Sunday and not Saturday.

    Sunday was a great day for Australian golf and its young elite golfers.

  7. Maybe they think it will show how masculine they are to the world.

    I think it’s called “draining the shallow end of the gene pool.” (See also: Darwin Awards.)


  8. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 7:10 am
    Kevin Rudd is enjoying being a media superstar

    Around Morrison’s cabinet table sits: Michaelia Cash, who refused to fully cooperate with police investigating leaks from her office; Angus Taylor, who was caught trading in a falsified annual report; Bridget McKenzie, the architect of sports rorts; Alan Tudge, whose car park rorts put McKenzie to shame; Linda Reynolds, who mishandled an alleged rape in her office, then called the complainant a lying cow; Peter Dutton, another pork-barreller who wouldn’t let Border Force officials appear at the Ruby Princess inquiry; Christian Porter, who resisted an inquiry to establish that he was fit and proper for ministerial office; and the list goes on.

    Maybe Morrison is enjoying being a media super star because of the ministers he has. He is compared to others and wah lah.
    Also, a leader is more secure when ministers are indebted to him.

  9. a rsays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 9:13 am
    C@tmomma @ #34 Monday, July 5th, 2021 – 8:43 am

    I just looked at some footage of Drumpf’s latest rally and he appears to be marketing himself to the conservative African American demographic very aggressively as he had two very black African American men in bright white ‘Blacks for Trump’ t-shirts prominent in the front row over his left shoulder.

    That’s nothing new. He’s always made a point of positioning his token minorities/women/other-demographics-that-are-like-90%-opposed-to-him prominently so that his rallies don’t look like the sea of angry middle-aged white men that they are.

    It’s not a bad strategy, necessarily, but it’s about as dishonest and manipulative as everything else Trump does.
    ______________________________________________
    If you watch Australian Parliament broadcasts, you’d swear that half the Coalition was female…
    And the cameras conveniently focus on the bottom right of the picture rather than get the whole of the picture in the frame:

  10. Reported yesterday: 0 new local cases and 2 new cases acquired overseas (currently in HQ).
    ——————————–

    Given that we know HQ is not 100% effective and that it has been responsible for numerous outbreaks in the last few months, do all people entering Australia as a matter of course
    a) get tested, repeatedly, before they get on the plane – and promptly refused entry if tested positive?
    b) undergo mandatory vaccination before they are allowed on the plane?
    and if not, why the hell not?

    Of course it could be that these new cases from HQ are people who were already vaccinated – in which case thats alright.

  11. ‘a r says:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 9:13 am

    C@tmomma @ #34 Monday, July 5th, 2021 – 8:43 am

    I just looked at some footage of Drumpf’s latest rally and he appears to be marketing himself to the conservative African American demographic very aggressively as he had two very black African American men in bright white ‘Blacks for Trump’ t-shirts prominent in the front row over his left shoulder.

    That’s nothing new. He’s always made a point of positioning his token minorities/women/other-demographics-that-are-like-90%-opposed-to-him prominently so that his rallies don’t look like the sea of angry middle-aged white men that they are.

    It’s not a bad strategy, necessarily, but it’s about as dishonest and manipulative as everything else Trump does.’
    __________________________________
    Some, at least, are paid to turn up.

  12. Ven @ #55 Monday, July 5th, 2021 – 9:19 am


    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 6:56 am
    So true!

    Simmons says that younger people – especially men under 50 – are the most resistant to getting a jab. Some men seem to believe it as a sign of weakness to get vaccinated. She speaks from personal experience: her 35-year-old husband has declined to get vaccinated.

    “I can’t convince him,” she says. “He just doesn’t think he needs it. He says that he’s healthy and if he were to get COVID, his symptoms would probably be minimal.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/in-the-deep-south-where-they-can-t-give-vaccines-away-20210703-p586ht.html

    Maybe they think it will show how masculine they are to the world.
    Could this be reason Trump and Morrison are popular under the age group of 35-50?

    You’ve hit the Tradie nail on the head, Ven. 🙂

  13. John Howard used to have a token Aborigine in the audience who would leap up and applaud loudly at key moments. Strangely, the cameras seemed to focus on him.

  14. DM,
    Sometimes the most profound discoveries are the ones staring right at us that we can’t see but someone else finally does.

  15. sprocket_ @ #66 Monday, July 5th, 2021 – 9:42 am

    Watch Julia Banks talk about the Menacing Wallpaper…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/abc730/status/1411776830688878595/video/1

    And her description of the way Josh Frydenburg rolls:

    Shortly after the announcement, Ms Banks said someone came and started “rapping” on the door of her office.

    “We realised it was [Treasurer] Josh Frydenberg, banging on the door,” she said.

    She said the Treasurer had come to make a deal to secure her guarantee of confidence and supply on the floor of the House of Representatives.

    She said she told Mr Frydenberg there would be no deals.

    “I said, ‘This shouldn’t be a surprise to you, Josh … I’ve been talking to you and Scott Morrison the whole time.’

    “And while I was saying this to Josh, I realised he was live-texting Sky News, because I could see everything I was saying coming up on the television screens. It was quite an extraordinary time.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-05/former-liberal-mp-julia-banks-on-her-time-in-parliament/100263928

  16. Ven @ #56 Monday, July 5th, 2021 – 9:26 am


    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 7:10 am
    Kevin Rudd is enjoying being a media superstar

    Around Morrison’s cabinet table sits: Michaelia Cash, who refused to fully cooperate with police investigating leaks from her office; Angus Taylor, who was caught trading in a falsified annual report; Bridget McKenzie, the architect of sports rorts; Alan Tudge, whose car park rorts put McKenzie to shame; Linda Reynolds, who mishandled an alleged rape in her office, then called the complainant a lying cow; Peter Dutton, another pork-barreller who wouldn’t let Border Force officials appear at the Ruby Princess inquiry; Christian Porter, who resisted an inquiry to establish that he was fit and proper for ministerial office; and the list goes on.

    Maybe Morrison is enjoying being a media super star because of the ministers he has. He is compared to others and wah lah.
    Also, a leader is more secure when ministers are indebted to him.

    A Labor media star?

  17. Mundo @8.45
    “Yesterday, today, tomorrow….it’s a dud party.”
    The “Dishonest Dudley’s”
    Unfortunately, not many voters care enough about Dudley’s rorters and enough line up to vote for this political genre.
    Dudley’s plan!
    Barilaro’s secret police!
    Pike’s fishy background!
    Julia Who!
    Executive renumeration!
    Are morning walks still free?


  18. phoenixREDsays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 8:45 am
    Laurence Tribe @tribelaw

    The Weisselberg Indictment Is Not A “Fringe Benefits” Case. It’s far more serious — and damning. The NY Attorney General should dissolve the Trump Organization if this indictment leads to its conviction.

    This is no mere fringe benefits case. It is a straight-out fraud case, claiming that the defendants kept double books: phony ones to show the tax authorities, and accurate ones to be hidden from view.

    https://www.justsecurity.org/77331/the-weisselberg-indictment-is-not-a-fringe-benefits-case/

    I read somewhere that Mafia used to do book-keeping in the same way. Otherwise how can you hide you illegal activities like drug trafficking from federal authorities.

  19. ar

    that’s nothing new. He’s always made a point of positioning his token minorities/women/other-demographics-that-are-like-90%-opposed-to-him prominently so that his rallies don’t look like the sea of angry middle-aged white men that they are.

    Fox Gnus has been into that big time since the election. The conservative anti Democrat ‘coloured folk’ demographic has seen their air time and prominence go way up.


  20. zoomstersays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 9:39 am
    John Howard used to have a token Aborigine in the audience who would leap up and applaud loudly at key moments. Strangely, the cameras seemed to focus on him.

    Could he be Wyatt? 🙂


  21. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 9:43 am
    DM,
    Sometimes the most profound discoveries are the ones staring right at us that we can’t see but someone else finally does.

    Like Trump supporters hiding all these years in plain sight and US politicians saying that what you see is few bad apples.

  22. I posted a couple of examples of the Gladys ‘love’ the West Australian was pumping out last week. Saw a deadwood one I missed.

    After last week Gladys could be heading towards a similar ‘popular in the West’ rating as this guy 😆

  23. Ven

    The Evangelicals were the ones bigly pro Trump. Something about him being an ‘imperfect vessel’ of god that was helping to fulfill prophesies and so speed up the arrival of Teh Rapture. I wonder if our evangelical wally was on that bus ?

  24. Ben O’Connors ride last night was awesome. All we need now is a big crosswinds stage and for Pog to get blown away…

  25. It’s not just Christian Evangelicals either:

    “Second, in a climate of distrust, confusion and growing fears, religious micro-influencers can offer their followers a sense of refuge by nurturing faith in the protective power of religion and the bigger plan of the Almighty.”

    Dr Sastramidjaja said some parts of the community were opposed to “mainstream reality”.

    “The echo chamber effect of social media further strengthens the separation of this alternative religious reality,” she told the ABC.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-04/indonesia-herd-stupidity-epidemiologist-covid-19-coronavirus/100260404

  26. The only way a bike road racer from WA could become outstanding is if his training included hill climbs up the Perth Escarpment. The rest of the place is flat! 😆

  27. C@tmomma says Monday, July 5, 2021 at 6:56 am

    So true!

    Simmons says that younger people – especially men under 50 – are the most resistant to getting a jab. Some men seem to believe it as a sign of weakness to get vaccinated. She speaks from personal experience: her 35-year-old husband has declined to get vaccinated.

    “I can’t convince him,” she says. “He just doesn’t think he needs it. He says that he’s healthy and if he were to get COVID, his symptoms would probably be minimal.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/in-the-deep-south-where-they-can-t-give-vaccines-away-20210703-p586ht.html

    This reminds me of something I heard about POWs in Japanese camps in WW2. It was said that the Brits tried to implement their class system, the Australians collectivised and with the Americans it was every man for himself.


  28. porotisays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 10:22 am
    Ven

    The Evangelicals were the ones bigly pro Trump. Something about him being an ‘imperfect vessel’ of god that was helping to fulfill prophesies and so speed up the arrival of Teh Rapture. I wonder if our evangelical wally was on that bus ?

    I don’t know what you mean by “our evangelical wally”. But Cardinal George Pell reportedly said about Trump “He is a barbarian but he is our barbarian”

    Isn’t it true that According to some of them the ‘rapture’ is already late by 20 years?

  29. Dandy Murray @ #65 Monday, July 5th, 2021 – 9:39 am

    Interesting: https://reneweconomy-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/reneweconomy.com.au/groundbreaking-solar-inverter-solution-points-way-to-grid-free-of-fossil-fuels/amp/

    I don’t know the specifics, but the SMA fellow makes reference to firmware, which makes me think it is a new control loop. It’s a fantastic outcome if that is all it takes.

    I don’t think it’s a breakthrough – reading one of the linked articles makes it sound more like they just fixed a software defect in a particular inverter:

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/inverters-are-solving-grid-issues-at-fraction-of-cost-of-spinning-machines/amp/

    One of the biggest break-throughs occurred last year when five large scale solar farm in the “west Murray” region of the grid (northwest Victoria and western NSW) had their output cut in half due to newly discovered “oscillation” issues.

    That was finally resolved through the “tuning” of the SMA inverters that happened to be common to all those solar farms, dubbed the “Murray 5” and the constraint was relaxed last April. It just so happens that SMA inverters are also common to the four solar farms in north Queensland that have found this work around.

    As of last week, the firmware at the Hayman and Daydream solar farms had been updated, tested and validated, while Hamilton and Whitsunday are still being completed.

    It sounds like it may just be a bit of “spin” from the manufacturer … I’ll get my coat … 🙂

  30. C@tmomma at 6:56 am

    So true!

    Simmons says that younger people – especially men under 50 – are the most resistant to getting a jab…..

    How sure is he ? Earlier surveys showed women , younger women , were the ‘demographic’ with the least ‘enthusiasm’ to get the vaccine. Older women though were the most enthusiastic group when it came to getting teh needle..

    YOUNG WOMEN ‘MOST RESISTANT’ GROUP TO VACCINATE

    https://health.anu.edu.au/news-events/news/young-women-most-resistant-group-vaccinate

  31. “I can’t convince him,” she says. “He just doesn’t think he needs it. He says that he’s healthy and if he were to get COVID, his symptoms would probably be minimal.”

    I overheard a conversation the other day (because it was in speaker-phone) between a neighbour and a big boofy RFS firey, where the firey confessed to avoiding vaccination – of all types – due to a fear of needles.

    This guy will go into the bush to fight apocalyptic infernos, and cut open petrol-soaked cars involved in highway accidents in order to rescue the passengers, but is afraid of a needle prick.

    My dentist asked me the other day whether I wanted an anaesthetic for the second stage of root canal therapy. He explained that the root was dead, and so it shouldn’t hurt… much. The jaw and gum area around the tooth was still very tender, so I told him to definitely to deaden the pain before he came near me, asking him incredulously if anyone at all took the “no anaesthetic” option. He told me that about one in five patients, almost all male, refused the needle. They’d rather suffer the pain of drilling – and even extraction – than go through the “horror” of a needle prick.

    I once knew a tree lopper who climbed 30 metre trees to cut down branches, strong as an ox, but who was terrified of flu vaccination. Suffered terribly with flu for it over the years.

    Blokes, even some of the blokiest, can be quite wussy about needles. Maybe this is part of the real explanation for some of the vaccine reluctance?

  32. “And while I was saying this to Josh, I realised he was live-texting Sky News, because I could see everything I was saying coming up on the television screens. It was quite an extraordinary time.”

    Proof that Frydenberg is as manipulative as his master and as bound to the RWNJs. I don’t know why I feel so surprised, when he is always insulting to Labor. Under that fat complacent face is a nasty persona.

  33. Media droppings..

    Hearing NSW new case numbers have spiked overnight. As always- how many of them in isolation will determine Sydney’s lockdown timeline. @9NewsAUS

  34. Earlier, an interview with ABCJoe provided minute detail on how aged care workers have been let down by the private contractors engaged by the commonwealth.

  35. Ven

    Scotty is Wally. The US evangelicals were speaking of Trump as an ‘imperfect vessel of god’ an enabler of prophesies that would hasten the end time. Seriously nutjob. What Pell said is a million miles away from that crap. At least it is based in the rational world , self interest 🙂

  36. Alpha Zerosays:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 10:30 am
    Ben O’Connors ride last night was awesome. All we need now is a big crosswinds stage and for Pog to get blown away…

    To win the TDF you have to finish in Paris. A long way to go. A lot of riders going out due to falls. You never know….!
    Tbh Pogocar is easily the best GC rider in the race by a long way. If he falters O’connor is the next best place to win.

  37. Good Morning

    I define the refusal to take a vaccine due to masculinity as a sympton of toxic masculinity.

    I know that makes me”woke”.

  38. U.S. COVID update: Only 14 states reporting ( July 4 in the US )

    – New cases: 3,339 …………………. – New deaths: 35

    – In hospital: 15,863 (-154)
    – In ICU: 3,971 (+5)

    621,293 total deaths now

  39. boerwar
    Fainting or good ol’ ….
    .
    Trypanophobia is an extreme fear of medical procedures involving injections or hypodermic needles.

  40. P1,

    No I agree with you.

    C@t,

    “Sometimes the most profound discoveries are the ones staring right at us that we can’t see but someone else finally does.”

    And sometimes it just needs the group with the problem to clearly state what is needed to fix it.

    It points to the need for these services to be formally defined/standardised so that the market can develop solutions. Although the response is very impressive from SMA, the fact that this problem has been hanging around for so long is probably due to AEMO’s inability to get service requirement definitions out in advance of foreseeable problems.

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