A preselection, two redistributions and a by-election

An assemblage of random stuff to kick off the new week.

It being the mid-point of the year, we’re about due for Newspoll’s state and demographic aggregates and Essential Research’s dump of voting intention numbers, both of which come along quarterly. In the meantime, there’s the following:

• The Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for a successor to Andrew Laming in Bowman has been won by Henry Pike, media and communications director for the Property Council. Pike was the only male candidate in a field of five, and prevailed despite earlier urgings from the Prime Minister for a woman to be preselected. Madura McCormack of the Courier-Mail reports he won in the final round of the ballot of local preselectors with 107 votes against 88 for Maggie Forrest, a barrister. Pike said last week that comments he made on the subject of “f***ing a fat chick” in a group chat twelve years ago, when he was about 21, do not “reflect the person I’ve grown to be”.

• Antony Green has published a report calculating party vote shares for the draft state redistribution in Victoria. Finalised state boundaries for New South Wales will be along at some unspecified point in the probably not too distant future.

• I have published a guide to the by-election for the Queensland state seat of Stretton, to be held on July 24 to choose a successor to Labor member Duncan Pegg, who resigned in April due to ill health and died on June 10.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,143 comments on “A preselection, two redistributions and a by-election”

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  1. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/three-sydney-aged-care-residents-among-16-new-local-cases-of-covid-19-20210704-p586na.html

    Three residents of an aged care home in Sydney’s north-west have tested positive to COVID-19 after a worker contracted the virus. They are among 16 local cases reported on Sunday, 13 of whom were in isolation during their infectious period.

    It brings the tally for the present outbreak to 277 cases.

    The SummitCare facility at Baulkham Hills went into lockdown as two of the residents were transferred to Westmead Hospital as a precautionary measure on Saturday night.


    What a fuck up

  2. ‘Pike said last week that comments he made on the subject of “f***ing a fat chick” in a group chat twelve years ago, when he was about 21, do not “reflect the person I’ve grown to be”.’

    Yeah, probably worse if today’s federal Liberal Party is any guide for aspiring Male Members.

  3. Jaeger @ #3 Monday, July 5th, 2021 – 6:08 am

    Maybe some aircraft, too.

    Deep sea robots will let us find millions of shipwrecks, says man who discovered Titanic

    A revolutionary new class of amphibious vehicle will transform the search for lost vessels on the ocean floor, says marine archaeologist Dr Robert Ballard


    And will hasten underwater mining no doubt. 🙁

  4. So true!

    Simmons says that younger people – especially men under 50 – are the most resistant to getting a jab. Some men seem to believe it as a sign of weakness to get vaccinated. She speaks from personal experience: her 35-year-old husband has declined to get vaccinated.

    “I can’t convince him,” she says. “He just doesn’t think he needs it. He says that he’s healthy and if he were to get COVID, his symptoms would probably be minimal.”


  5. Kevin Rudd is enjoying being a media superstar 🙂

    Around Morrison’s cabinet table sits: Michaelia Cash, who refused to fully cooperate with police investigating leaks from her office; Angus Taylor, who was caught trading in a falsified annual report; Bridget McKenzie, the architect of sports rorts; Alan Tudge, whose car park rorts put McKenzie to shame; Linda Reynolds, who mishandled an alleged rape in her office, then called the complainant a lying cow; Peter Dutton, another pork-barreller who wouldn’t let Border Force officials appear at the Ruby Princess inquiry; Christian Porter, who resisted an inquiry to establish that he was fit and proper for ministerial office; and the list goes on. They are now all part of political blur – in fact that’s Morrison’s strategy. But in the process he has effectively destroyed an essential Westminster convention.

    Breakdowns of fundamental standards of governance don’t come much bigger than the Morrison government’s medley of pandemic policy and performance failures on aged care, quarantine and vaccination. For these reasons, Health Minister Greg Hunt should resign, or else Morrison should dismiss him now.


  6. After hearing a grab of what Julia Banks has to say tonight on 7.30, pre-recorded, I reckon a new front is being opened up on the curry cooking daggy dad from Bunnings…

    She calls Morrison ‘menacing’ and proceeds to give examples of him wanting to ‘silence’ her, and how he deployed his minions to do that.

  7. Been There

    ‘Religion, whatever type is the cause of all the planets wars.’

    Well, nuh.

    Can’t see a religious cause, for example, for World War I or II. Genghis Khan wasn’t on a religious mission, nor was Napoleon.

    And in many cases, religion was used as an excuse for a war which would have happened anyway.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Shane Wright describes how Simon Birmingham has defended the federal government’s under-fire $660 million commuter car park scheme as a necessary boost to productivity despite projects being approved without any promise, they would actually deliver extra park spaces. The brazenness of Birmingham’s comment made my blood boil!
    Daniel Hurst has his say on the subject ANAO report.
    Michael Pascoe reckons that political integrity just dropped another notch as government rorts rage on. And he was far from impressed with Birmingham’s effort on Insiders.
    Also, Mike Foley writes about Birmingham saying that historical sexual harassment complaints will not be investigated by the independent body which is being set up to deal with allegations in Parliament House.
    Another good and entertaining article from John Faine, this time on Dan Andrews’ return to active duty.
    In calling for Greg Hunt’s removal, Kevin Rudd begins his argument with, “A defining quality of our Westminster parliamentary democracy is that cabinet ministers are held personally responsible for serious policy or performance failures in their portfolios. Across the decades, ministers have been kept on track by the knowledge that grave errors on their watch will result in their removal. This principle lies at the heart of accountable government.” He doesn’t confine his criticism to Hunt alone, either.
    John Lord takes a preliminary look at the next election and what matters most.
    Paula Matthewson argues that Julia Banks’ revelations prove – again – that it’s men who are responsible for sexist politics.
    Independent candidates are on the rise – and that may not be all bad, opines Bob McMullan.
    Ross Gittins begins this contribution with, “Almost all the nation’s businesspeople, economists and politicians believe too much population growth is never enough. But if there’s one thing I hope to be remembered for, it’s that I always subjected this case of group think to critical examination.” He believes that our aspirations for a Big Australia need a big trim.
    William McInnes writes that economists are expecting tomorrow’s Reserve Bank board meeting to acknowledge the economy’s surprisingly strong recovery and to signal some tapering of its $200 billion-plus quantitative easing monetary stimulus.

    Rosiland Dixon and Richrd Holden suggest delaying the start of term if that’s what it takes to get teachers vaccinated.
    Sydneysiders are like a pack of teens taking advantage of Glad’s ‘cool mum’ parenting, says Penny Flannagan.
    The split in vaccination rates in the various states in America is quite illustrative. It also serves as a warning that Australia is likely to run into a brick wall trying to get our rate up to an effective level.
    The national plan is political filler for the deep holes in the government’s approach to vaccination, writes Jennifer Hewett who says the PM’s plan is going nowhere fast.
    John Dwyer goes into detail over what he characterises the chaotic incompetence of our roll out of the Covid vaccines.
    80% vaccination won’t get us herd immunity, but it could mean safely opening international borders, explains these two epidemiologists.
    Six thousand Australians return home every week, but the total number of Australians waiting to return barely shifts. Nigel Gladstone explains why this is so.
    Immunisation expert Peter McIntyre tells us that there’s a better way to keep Australia safe than the illogical cut in overseas arrivals.
    The editorial in the AFR says that the national cabinet’s exit plan leaves the state premiers in the driver’s seat. They must provide national leadership on vaccines and living with the virus if Australia is to rejoin the world as soon as possible.
    The family of a Sydney aged care resident who contracted COVID-19 are furious they were not told their parents were being cared for by unvaccinated healthcare workers.
    Alan Kohler describes the Delta strain is a punch in the face.
    The Morrison government’s four-phase exit plan from the pandemic means Australia will be locked away from the rest of the world until late 2022 and its economic recovery “held hostage to vaccine hesitancy”, Ai Group CEO Innes Willox has warned.
    Shane Wright explains how budgets used to be built on higher cigarette and beer taxes, but falls in smoking and alcohol consumption and the rise of electric vehicles will hit the budget.
    Bill Shorten has said that the new figures showing the National Disability Insurance Scheme will blow out to $60 billion by 2030 have all the credibility of claims there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
    Daniel Hurst reports that the top US diplomat in Australia has declared both countries need to set “more ambitious climate goals” and tackle the climate crisis “head on”, as international pressure mounts on the Morrison government to act. Mike Goldman, who is chargé d’affaires at the United States embassy in Canberra, emphasised that the US and Australia had a shared obligation to protect the planet.
    After 12 gruelling days in the witness box at his defamation trial, Ben Roberts-Smith now faces an anxious wait to hear from those accusing him of war crimes in Afghanistan, writes Sam McKeith who says the trial is about to heat up when it is set to resume on 19 July.
    This is a tale of greed, denial, delusion, racism, power, loyalty, ethics and courage. Dressed in black are Howard and Downer, in white are Witness K and Collaery. The tale takes place in the subterranean world of spies, spooks, spivs and secret trials, writes Bruce Haigh.
    Patrick Hatch writes that the Andrews government is facing calls to step in and stop Crown Resorts from claiming compensation if the state’s royal commission leads to changed rules on how its casino can operate.
    Crown Resorts’ executive chairman Helen Coonan will front Victoria’s investigation into the $8.6 billion casino giant this week to convince the head of the royal commission of her attempts to overhaul the company and explain the alleged decade-long $272 million tax underpayment.
    Meanwhile, Nick McKenzie reports that embattled gaming giant Crown Resorts has called an immediate inquiry into claims an alleged fugitive corporate fraudster laundered millions of dollars through its Melbourne casino.
    The Liberal National Party has chosen Henry Pike as its candidate for the federal Brisbane seat being vacated by MP Andrew Laming, despite reported claims of fat-shaming and sexist comments. Mr Pike was the sole male contender in the five-way race to represent the LNP in the electorate of Bowman and had the backing of federal Assistant Minister for Women Amanda Stoker.
    As a country that once welcomed migrants with open arms, Australia’s current treatment of asylum seekers is gut-wrenching, writes Kristin Perissinotto.
    Australia could add billions to its economy, create thousands of jobs and clean our energy grid by making batteries here, instead of shipping the raw minerals to China, emerging research has revealed.
    Six years of fighting Family Court battles to try and protect her son from abuse has left one woman feeling powerless to keep him safe. This is her personal account.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Jim Pavlidis

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre

    Johannes Leak

    Cathy Wilcox

    Michael Leunig

    From the US

  9. This is the comment I wrote to former PM Kevin Rudd’s article today:

    The Morrison government are experts at bewitching, brainwashing and bamboozling the nation. They soften resistance and outrage at their failures with social media posts about their cute dogs, cooking curries, constructing chook sheds and the like. It’s all they really run on at election time as they don’t let the electorate into their confidence on what policies they have lined up for after the election. Instead we get photos of Scott Morrison drinking beer, picking strawberries or carrots, driving big trucks or meeting the footy team with the best mullets.

    Plus an absolutely devastating, usually in concert with Clive Palmer, unsubstantiated negative fear campaign against Labor.

    Sadly it works well enough to convince enough low care, low information, easily triggered, voters in enough seats to vote for the LNP, the CLP, The Liberals or The Nationals.

    This then leads Ministers like Simon Birmingham to haughtily declare, as he did yesterday, that any misappropriation of taxpayers’ money uncovered after the election, like Sports Rorts or Pork and Ride, is okay because they won the election and that’s all that counts, not probity.

    And here we are today, with the Morrison Cabinet that former PM Rudd has accurately described. Likely laughing at us behind the closed doors of the Cabinet Room for being so gullible, that we would do the 21st century equivalent of the American Indians swapping New York State for some blankets and beads, or in our case a new grandstand or netball court.

    While they get away with giving the biggest prizes to their private industry partners and taking our democracy, and its basic tenet of accountability, for granted.


  10. C@t

    I’m glad you agree with me on Clive Palmer. It was when I saw the volume of yellow that I started to worry.

  11. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, July 5, 2021 at 7:26 am

    Oils aint oils..


    You do know that India is in a wave of death over there with over 400,000 deaths ?

    Secondly the deaths could be related to existing illnesses like the other COVID19 vaccinations we have heard.

    So I wouldn’t rule out anything just yet

    Also India has poor health sector compared to most countries in and around India.

  12. Also I have many Indian colleagues who don’t like their own country and seen many relatives die from COVID19.

  13. Cud Chewer @ #20 Monday, July 5th, 2021 – 7:57 am


    I’m glad you agree with me on Clive Palmer. It was when I saw the volume of yellow that I started to worry.

    Israel Folau for the Queensland Senate, Cud?

    And how many Australians has the Covid vaccine ‘killed’ again? I’m sure Clive and Pauline will remind us ad nauseum.

  14. Clive Palmer is Australia’s true Donald Trump simulacrum. A businessman who should have well and truly failed and gone bankrupt by now, using the courts and lawyers as flash as a rat with a gold tooth, to stave it off. Thereby maintaining and growing his fortune which he then cynically uses to corrupt the democratic and election process to enable his kind to thrive and prosper.

    It stinks to high heaven and if Morrison and his cronies were real Christians, not just greedy, venal faux Christians, then they would refuse to deal with Palmer and would prevent him from running his personal advancement campaign behind a thin veneer of a political party ever again. But it’s pretty much what they are also about, so it’s never going to happen.

  15. The article below is from an NZ paper. They were running supply down to the wire, close run thing to not run out. NZ Pfizer deliveries have ,so far, appeared to be delivered at about the same time as Australian deliveries,same flight on first batch. From past efforts we should expect in the MSM a tale or two from Scotty+Ghunt of their wresting from Pfizer a delivery of the ,now in short supply, Pfizer vaccine.

    Covid 19 coronavirus: Crucial vaccine shipment arrives two day early.
    A crucial delivery of 150,000 Covid vaccines has arrived in New Zealand two days early.

    The shipment – the largest in this country to date of the Pfizer vaccine – arrived on Sunday afternoon, two days ahead of schedule.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said this morning she was relieved the vaccines had arrived – otherwise there may have been an issue.

    New Zealand had distributed nearly all of its vaccine supply, with all stock expected to have been used by Wednesday.


  16. This was my reply to Shane Wright’s article:

    The Commuter Car Parks was Labor’s idea and policy at the 2019 federal election. It was a well thought out and fiscally responsible policy. The Coalition purloined it from Labor, threw need and fiscal responsibility out the window and then proceeded to promise a car park for every electorate they wanted to win off Labor or hold. That is just politics at its most cynical and venal.

    No doubt they will do it all over again at the next election. It worked.


  17. Ex-Manhattan DA assistant warns Allen Weisselberg he’s ‘unlikely to win’ because ‘these are strong charges’

    Former Manhattan District Attorney chief assistant Daniel R. Alonso and former federal prosecutor Glenn Kirschner explained Sunday that Donald Trump will likely go through some things as his company faces indictment.

    “The thing to remember now is that these are strong charges by themselves. Perhaps [Allen] Weisselberg will fight them. He’s unlikely to win, they’re very very strong. Some of the defenses we’ve heard are quite frankly nonsense. But it’s more PR spin, political spin, by others than anything that’s going to work in a court of law.”

    Kirschner went on to explain that Trump is hurting himself the more he speaks because all of his public statements can be used against him in the trial.


  18. C@T
    The question that needs to be asked about these train station carparks is why are federal politicians campaigning on something that is clearly a state government issue. The feds need to stick to federal issues.

  19. Trump warned that his rallies are only making his legal problems worse

    Appearing on MSNBC with host Lindsey Reiser, conservative campaign strategist Susan Del Percio watched a clip of Donald Trump from Saturday night talking about the indictments filed against his company, and explained to the host that almost every time the ex-president speaks he incriminates himself further.

    During his rant on Saturday night in Sarasota, Trump all but admitted that he is avoiding paying taxes — a central part of the Manhattan DA’s investigation of the Trump Organization — and Del Percio smirked that the ex-president can’t seem to keep his mouth shut as further criminal indictments loom.

    “Time will continue to wear away at Donald Trump,” Del Persio explained. “These legal problems may also force him to eventually have to stop these rallies because the more he opens up his mouth, the more incriminating — the more often he incriminates himself.”


  20. Mexicanbeemer @ #28 Monday, July 5th, 2021 – 8:32 am

    The question that needs to be asked about these train station carparks is why are federal politicians campaigning on something that is clearly a state government issue. The feds need to stick to federal issues.

    The answer is because they are popular palliatives with the electorate.

    You and I know that Scott Morrison has never been averse to muscling in on state responsibilities when he sees some political upside for himself, or avoiding what should be a federal responsibility when it has whiskers on it. That’s just how he rolls. Shamelessly.

  21. Menacing wallpaper.

    Has one single MP or deluded Liberal voter stepped forward to defend Scotty’s pleasant, supportive manner when speaking to them? No, only the man himself.

  22. phoenixRED,
    I just looked at some footage of Drumpf’s latest rally and he appears to be marketing himself to the conservative African American demographic very aggressively as he had two very black African American men in bright white ‘Blacks for Trump’ t-shirts prominent in the front row over his left shoulder. You always need to go to the optics and marketing with Trump. Just like Morrison.

  23. Laurence Tribe @tribelaw

    The Weisselberg Indictment Is Not A “Fringe Benefits” Case. It’s far more serious — and damning. The NY Attorney General should dissolve the Trump Organization if this indictment leads to its conviction.

    This is no mere fringe benefits case. It is a straight-out fraud case, claiming that the defendants kept double books: phony ones to show the tax authorities, and accurate ones to be hidden from view.


  24. C@T
    Sure its popular with voters but its becoming harder to differentiate between the Federal and state government leading to political bum fights.

  25. Julia Banks is going to be interviewed on 7.30 tonight.
    Her description of Morrison as menacing is something that should be noted.

  26. phoenixRED
    That sounds back to front because the phony goes to the bank and the real goes to the ATO.

  27. Julia Banks is everything that is wrong with todays Liberal Party because if they were really the party of business and management Julia would be a cabinet minister.

  28. Richard Signorelli @richsignorelli – Former AUSA-SDNY

    Two sets of records is essentially a confession. The DA needs one credible witness that can establish that Trump knew about those records. That witness is probably the one who turned them over to the DA and who has already testified before the grand jury.

    Michael Cohen – He testified about that to Congress in 2019.

    “…The revelations confirm what former Trump lawyer Cohen told Congress in February. ‘It was my experience that Mr. Trump inflated his total assets when it served his purposes, and deflated his assets to reduce his real estate taxes.”

    Fraudulent double bookkeeping – Implementing this scheme required having two inconsistent sets of records: (a) the fake ones for tax reporting that excluded a part of his compensation (under the parties’ financial deal and the company’s secret bookkeeping), and (b) the true accounting records that the company maintained privately. Experts on tax enforcement agree that keeping two sets of books, in this fashion, is “a red flag” and “a classic indication of an overt act of evasion,” often causing the government to have a “slam-dunk case.”

  29. Nothing on the Tas opposition leader in Dawn Patrol ?
    Surely a bit more relevant than an opinion piece by Daniel Andrews biggest fan.

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