A preselection, two redistributions and a by-election

An assemblage of random stuff to kick off the new week.

It being the mid-point of the year, we’re about due for Newspoll’s state and demographic aggregates and Essential Research’s dump of voting intention numbers, both of which come along quarterly. In the meantime, there’s the following:

• The Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for a successor to Andrew Laming in Bowman has been won by Henry Pike, media and communications director for the Property Council. Pike was the only male candidate in a field of five, and prevailed despite earlier urgings from the Prime Minister for a woman to be preselected. Madura McCormack of the Courier-Mail reports he won in the final round of the ballot of local preselectors with 107 votes against 88 for Maggie Forrest, a barrister. Pike said last week that comments he made on the subject of “f***ing a fat chick” in a group chat twelve years ago, when he was about 21, do not “reflect the person I’ve grown to be”.

• Antony Green has published a report calculating party vote shares for the draft state redistribution in Victoria. Finalised state boundaries for New South Wales will be along at some unspecified point in the probably not too distant future.

• I have published a guide to the by-election for the Queensland state seat of Stretton, to be held on July 24 to choose a successor to Labor member Duncan Pegg, who resigned in April due to ill health and died on June 10.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,143 comments on “A preselection, two redistributions and a by-election”

Comments Page 23 of 23
1 22 23
  1. Btw
    Hunters Hill is not in SLHD
    I know of a connection between Joeys and SLHD but to mention it would be libellous
    I prefer to think it was an honest error

  2. Spray

    I’m as anti-Private schools as you can get. But I know an awful lot of Joey’s old boys, and it ain’t no “Coalition incubator”.

    DLP then ?

  3. a r @ #1085 Tuesday, July 6th, 2021 – 9:10 pm

    Steelydan @ #1065 Tuesday, July 6th, 2021 – 8:27 pm

    Why the hatred towards private schools

    Because despite the name they all siphon limited public funds away from public schools.

    If they want to be private they should be 100% private; refuse all public funding and implement a business model where students (and their parents) provide the funds needed to run the school. If they do that then I’ve got nothing left against them. But they don’t, currently.

    Exactly. They’re publically sudsidised schools for queue jumpers.

  4. davidwh @ #1064 Tuesday, July 6th, 2021 – 8:27 pm

    Wouldn’t it be nice if the aged care facilities acted as effectively as this school? Personally I don’t see that the school did anything other than act in the best interests of their pupils particularly indigenous students boarding at the school. They have always been a Category 1B group.

    My son is in Category 1a. He STILL hasn’t received HIS Pfizer vaccination. So for a bunch of Private School boys to get a vaccination that should have rightly gone to my son first is not something that I will dismiss lightly.

    And of course the school acted in the best interests of their pupils. THAT’S the problem. Selfish for their kind to a fault. They couldn’t even bring themselves to do the noble and self-effacing thing and get their act together to do the right thing and only send the Indigenous kids. They went along for the free ride. And there is someone in this sorry saga who just isn’t telling the truth about what really went on. It stinks.

  5. I’m not anti-private schools. If the wealthy and the religious want to pay for private education, they can fill their boots. There’s no reason why their choice needs to be subsidised by the taxpayer.

  6. The mystery of the schoolkids vaccinations has got a lot more commentary than the 4 Corners episode on Crown last night.

  7. I prefer to think it was an honest error

    Says the NSW Health insider. Far be it from mere mortals like us to question the motives of the NSW Health management elite.

  8. And it’s a specious argument for the parents of the Private School sprogs to say, they pay their taxes. No they don’t! Not if they can pay an accountant to weasel out of it.

  9. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, July 6, 2021 at 10:01 pm

    I’m not anti-private schools. If the wealthy and the religious want to pay for private education, they can fill their boots. There’s no reason why their choice needs to be subsidised by the taxpayer.
    That was the old Liberal policy. It was always Labor that maintained that independent schools be funded. I suppose everything gets recycled and jumps parties in the end!

  10. Bushfire Bill @ #1109 Tuesday, July 6th, 2021 – 10:03 pm

    I prefer to think it was an honest error

    Says the NSW Health insider. Far be it from mere mortals like us to question the motives of the NSW Health management elite.

    It’s a skill they are inculcated with. The sotto voce eliding away from responsibility. A coat of verbal Teflon for the charges against them to slide off.

  11. “I prefer to think it was an honest error”

    Yes. They always turn up with ten times more than they need. With some left over for the girls down the road.

  12. Arthur Daley’s got nothing on the NSW Liberals and their shonky mates. They’ve infected every crevice in society with their malodorous ways, which only determined investigative reporting and whistleblowers prepared to risk discovery are uncovering.

  13. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, July 6, 2021 at 10:13 pm

    It was Menzies who introduced “State Aid” for private schools c. 1962.
    Let’s not forget the state governments’ role in education.

  14. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, July 6, 2021 at 10:16 pm

    Steve777 @ #1115 Tuesday, July 6th, 2021 – 10:13 pm

    It was Menzies who introduced “State Aid” for private schools c. 1962.

    And look what it has produced. Just the aerial shot of St Josephs was enough to make my stomach turn today. An absolute behemoth. As are all the rest.
    Actually, when it comes to Commonwealth aid a bipartisanship had emerged in the 1960s:

    The two major political groupings at the federal level, both of whom opposed ‘state aid’ in the late 1950s and early 1960s, had changed their policy positions by the mid to late 1960s. R.G. Menzies, Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal/National Party Government from 1949 to 1966, had initially opposed general funding of government (and non-government) schooling on the grounds that schooling was a State constitutional responsibility. However, it was his government in 1964 that began the process of direct Commonwealth aid to schools. The ALP had been consistently opposed to ‘state aid’ since the 1957 split when much of its Catholic support went to the Democratic Labor Party (DLP). However, by 1966, after much infighting, the ALP had changed its policy platform to include the provision for federal aid to non-government schools. E.G. Whitlam, then deputy leader of the federal ALP, was firmly of the view that schools needed support from the Commonwealth and that this support had to go to both sectors or neither sector.


  15. Tom the first and best says:
    Tuesday, July 6, 2021 at 10:33 pm


    The Howard era model was worse, it was based on the postcode of the students, so schools taking students from rich family in areas where most people were poor (e.g. boarders from country areas and children of relatively wealthier people in poorer suburbs) got buckets of money.
    From what I understand, the Catholic schools don’t actually get the money directly. The money goes to the Diocese or perhaps it’s a state catholic fund. So you can still get terribly poor Catholic schools and those like Xavier College. The money is diverted by the Catholic hierarchy to where they want it to go.

  16. Wasn’t it under Howard that we saw a bizarre funding model where private schools needs were assessed according to the taxable incomes of the parents?

    All those rich people with businesses

    My understanding is that their Commonwealth funding was based on the average income of people in the postcodes where their students came from.

    So, squatters’ sons and daughters had their city boarding schools schools subsidized based on the income of the farm labourers who worked for their parents back home in the bush.

  17. Australia continually misses the point. It’s not about the parents, parent choice, parents paying taxes, or how much they “save” the government. It’s about the children.

    There are kids who get their breakfast from the school, who have no internet or devices except at school. And that’s probably just the start.

    Government resources should make up for that. It’s not meant to be equal for parents, it’s meant to be equitable for children. The Right love the phrase “it’s equality of opportunity, not equality of outcome”. Well Australia doesn’t even provide equality of opportunity, because we have a model that panders to parents.

    Quite frankly, someone should tell those selfish, self-centred, parents who whinge about their taxes and how much they’re “saving” the government, to GaGF.

  18. The history of “private” schools in Australia is complicated. The current setup has its roots back in the second half of the 19th century when public schools were first being developed. Universal literacy through free and secular education for all children, or as close as we could get, was being seen as essential for a modern, civilised society.

    Previously, schools had been the province of the churches. However, apart from the Catholics, the mainstream denominations were happy to fold their networks into the public system. The Catholics, wary of the Protestant ascendancy of the time, kept their system.

    That was unfortunate. In most comparable countries private schools are a niche product for the rich and also for the very religious. They educate maybe 5-10% of children. In Australia it’s about 35%. The private system can cherry-pick, residualing the public sector. In addition to the Catholic school system, which genuinely provided low fee education for the working class, the big elite privat3 schools have jumped aboard.

    In the case of modern Catholics, the religious reasons for staying apart no longer apply. The Church has more than enough money to look after those who still genuinely think that their kids’ souls are at risk in the public system. As for the rest, well, if private is superior, if you want your kids to make contacts, keep separate from the riff-raff and get pushed up the greasy pole, if you believe that money gives you more rights, fine – you can bloody well pay for it yourselves.

  19. The Right has this phobia of redistributive policies. Well *all* policies regarding children are redistributive. Every. Single. One. The only difference between policies is how that redistribution occurs, which children are advantaged and which are disadvantaged.

    All children are dependent on the largesse of adults, and the redistribution of resources from those adults. It’s just that some are luckier than others in the adults they have to depend on.

    The problem in Australia is that the discussion is always framed around parents. Someone has to tell Australia that it’s not about the parents.

  20. If there’s something I did to earn the parents I was born to, and the environment I was raised in, I’m unaware of it.

  21. Agreed

    Marieke Hardy
    oh god, I just – Morrison hiding in fear of his own gargantuan fuck-ups and sending out a Big Military Boy with shiny medals to ‘take charge of the rollout messaging’ is just so pathetic and transparent I am agog that I live amongst any actual humans buying this shit

  22. Conversation
    Thomas O’Brien
    Sydney’s lockdown has been extended 1 week – with papers given a drop that Stay at Home Orders for 5 million people will extend beyond midnight Friday.

    Just 2 weeks ago the NSW Govt was shutting down media reports of possible lockdown, now it’s actively leaking its extension

  23. Steelydan @ #1065 Tuesday, July 6th, 2021 – 8:27 pm

    Private Schools have high competition and high fees (Similar to Chinese and Japanese schools).

    They offer nothing of value to the student other than to punish them. It does not make them get a better job, and the only reason they do is their parents know someone at work.

    Besides that – they rip of the tax payer money while receiving high fees from parents, a double tax.

  24. Interestingly another dodgy set of articles posted by ABC/The Guardian on the apparently arresting monks in Tibetan – in a so called “secret report”:



    However, what the articles didn’t publish is the bias links of the so called non profit organization:

    HRW has been accused of evidence-gathering bias because it is said to be “credulous of civilian witnesses in places like Gaza and Afghanistan” but “skeptical of anyone in a uniform.”[1] Its founder, Robert Bernstein, accused the organization of poor research methods and relying on “witnesses whose stories cannot be verified and who may testify for political advantage or because they fear retaliation from their own rulers.”[2] In October 2009, Bernstein said that the organization had lost critical perspective on events in the Middle East:[2] “[T]he region is populated by authoritarian regimes with appalling human rights records. Yet in recent years Human Rights Watch has written far more condemnations of Israel for violations of international law than of any other country in the region.”[2] HRW responded by saying that HRW “does not devote more time and energy to Israel than to other countries in the region, or in the world”.[3] Tom Porteus, director of the HRW’s London branch, replied that the organization rejected Bernstein’s “obvious double standard. Any credible human rights organization must apply the same human rights standards to all countries

  25. Q: All children are dependent on the largesse of adults, and the redistribution of resources from those adults. It’s just that some are luckier than others in the adults they have to depend on.

    Beautifully expressed, gold star (from a kid from an outer Sydney Housing Commission area with a hatred of private schools).

  26. Much better standard of play by Barty this morning (our time), beating fellow Aussie Tomljanovic (former Croatian) 6-1, 6-3. Barty served much more consistently than her previous two matches (eg, 83% win/loss ratio in 1st set), was broken only twice, and some of her forehand shots (fourteen winners) were superb. She now plays Kerber (German) in a semi-final on Thursday. Kerber is a very capable grass-court player having won Wimbledon once and a runner-up plus one AO.

  27. Zerlo
    I’m interested in the division of activities between you and your minders. Do they provide the links and the thrust of your posts and you the words or do they provide the words also.

Comments Page 23 of 23
1 22 23

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *