A preselection, two redistributions and a by-election

An assemblage of random stuff to kick off the new week.

It being the mid-point of the year, we’re about due for Newspoll’s state and demographic aggregates and Essential Research’s dump of voting intention numbers, both of which come along quarterly. In the meantime, there’s the following:

• The Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for a successor to Andrew Laming in Bowman has been won by Henry Pike, media and communications director for the Property Council. Pike was the only male candidate in a field of five, and prevailed despite earlier urgings from the Prime Minister for a woman to be preselected. Madura McCormack of the Courier-Mail reports he won in the final round of the ballot of local preselectors with 107 votes against 88 for Maggie Forrest, a barrister. Pike said last week that comments he made on the subject of “f***ing a fat chick” in a group chat twelve years ago, when he was about 21, do not “reflect the person I’ve grown to be”.

• Antony Green has published a report calculating party vote shares for the draft state redistribution in Victoria. Finalised state boundaries for New South Wales will be along at some unspecified point in the probably not too distant future.

• I have published a guide to the by-election for the Queensland state seat of Stretton, to be held on July 24 to choose a successor to Labor member Duncan Pegg, who resigned in April due to ill health and died on June 10.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,143 comments on “A preselection, two redistributions and a by-election”

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  1. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, July 6, 2021 at 7:42 pm
    If only the ALP were in charge of the vaccination program! It’s no coincidence that the Labor states have performed much better in the Covid response.

    In Liberal Land inertia and blame shifting are the standard policy response settings.
    It is my belief that Australia’s public health response to covid (including the vaccination response) will be seen as a triumph after the event.

    For sure there have been blips, the Victorian lock-down , AZ and the blood clots but all in all we are incredibly fortunate to live on a large island with (for most of us) first world public medicine.

  2. Do people really think NSW purposely vaccinated the school children because they came from a private school.

    Yes, what other reason?

  3. My greatest brush with ALP fame was when, during the 2004 election campaign, I had a minute alone with Mark Latham at a Chinese restaurant in Parramatta, and suggested to him that he find that cabbie (ie. the one whose arm he broke) and turn him into a BFF for Daily Telegraph purposes.

    Went down like a lead pipe to the temples, it did.

    (I still think it was good advice, though).

  4. LVT
    It looks like it will be an exciting marching season.
    Faux Unionist outrage over what I thought was a fairly lame tweet by a Tory

    Who knew William of Orange arrived in Ireland with hundreds of wooden pallets hence the traditional pallet burning fiesta began.


    Still as our resident Unionist has said, any attempt to further level the playing field in NI must be resisted

  5. Steelydan @ #1049 Tuesday, July 6th, 2021 – 8:08 pm

    Do people really think NSW purposely vaccinated the school children

    Are you suggesting that vaccinating 160 people by accident is plausible? And that furthermore, if it happened it’s fine because it was an accident?

    Bottom line, if it wasn’t purposeful (and corrupt) then at the absolute best it was grossly incompetent given that they can’t even get the Phase 1A aged-care workers vaccinated.

  6. There are exactly no (that’s none) Liberal or National Party MPs who educate their kids at Joeys.
    Joeys is a Marist brothers boarding school. It’s demographic is rural families, but not the squatocracy.
    They are not the kind of people who end up in the Australian Club, let’s put it that way.

  7. OC, Donaldson has punted on the Stormont reshuffle until September and has said he plans to become First Minister “later in the year”.

    Its going to be a great run up to the 2022 Assembly election.

  8. Do people really think NSW purposely vaccinated the school children because they came from a private school.

    Quite happy to join in any head-kicking of NSW Health, but I can see a hapless Health jabber confronted by a busload of 169 Year 12s with “connected” Dads and Mums, trying to figure out how to say, “Blackfellas only, please” without causing a riot.

  9. Confessionssays:
    Tuesday, July 6, 2021 at 7:42 pm
    If only the ALP were in charge of the vaccination program! It’s no coincidence that the Labor states have performed much better in the Covid response.
    Complete rubbish.
    820 deaths in Victoria. 910 deaths nationwide.

  10. Oakshott. Yes, her R&R inAustralia consisted of 5 days leave with her family which took a full day each way to access. Thenshe spent about 2 months onthe Atherton Tablelands treating soldiers returned from New Guinea suffering from severe skin diseases and .

  11. Maybe Comrade Albanese should visit Xi?

    He could take some ping pong bats and a bottle of Grange to smooth the way.

  12. Taylormade

    However St Basil’s has rejected some of the report’s findings, “including any claim that it was not adequately prepared for a COVID-19 outbreak or that it did not comply with COVID-19 outbreak management protocols”.

    “The home was inspected a number of times by independent and government authorities up until July 22, 2020, each of whom found that appropriate action was being taken by St Basil’s management and staff to combat the outbreak,” St Basil’s said in a statement.

    “That changed dramatically when contractors engaged by the Commonwealth moved in and took over the management of the facility on July 22.”

    The establishment of the Victorian Aged Care Response Centre was also significant, she said.

    It brought together the Victorian and Commonwealth health departments, regulatory bodies and surge workforce providers.

    “It made an enormous difference, but it didn’t happen until the end of July, which was really too late,” she said.

  13. Wouldn’t it be nice if the aged care facilities acted as effectively as this school? Personally I don’t see that the school did anything other than act in the best interests of their pupils particularly indigenous students boarding at the school. They have always been a Category 1B group.

  14. Why the hatred towards private schools I know many of you came through the private school system you only turned to the left at Uni. The only thing cooler than being an ardent lefty party was to be communist now that was boss level cool, sadly it still is even a little romantic a bit like the way Philip Adams bangs on about it, never says much about the millions killed while he was a communist though, funny that.

  15. Why is the Menacing, Controlling Wallpaper (bit of a mouthful but sums him up) absenting himself again from the national stage? Last seen with a curry and his photographer, sans continuity.

    And Julia Banks observation that he sends out his duped minions to do his dirty work could be more apt.

  16. The NSW Coalition incubator likely used an old and trusted rort of several “elite” schools. Lots of rich bustards from the bush send their kids to them . Hey ho the diddly o the school reckons they have got lots of pupils from ‘deprived’ areas . It makes them eligible for all sorts of extras as their catchment is so ‘povo’. It was quite a !! during the Rodent years, I imagine it is still a nice little earner.

  17. Canada has brought in new rules for returning citizens and permanent residents…maybe we will over the horizon.

    ‘What are the exemptions for fully-vaccinated travellers?

    No quarantining necessary
    Mandatory hotel quarantine not needed for air travellers
    No need for testing on your eighth day
    What do I need to do in order to enjoy the travel exemptions?

    *Note: Restrictions may also vary by province and territory

    Make sure Canada considers you fully vaccinated. This means that:
    1. You have received complete dosage for an accepted COVID-19 vaccine, including a combination of approved vaccines. The vaccines accepted in Canada are: Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson). Other vaccines, including Sinovac and Sputnik V, aren’t accepted yet, but the list of accepted vaccines could expand in the future.

    2. You received your last dose 14 days before entering Canada. This is based on the principle that it takes 14 days for the vaccine to build immunity in your body.

    Fulfil all entry requirements:


  18. Not that we ever will however it would be interesting to find out the reasons the person who made the call decided to vaccinate all 163 students.

  19. Australians do NOT like queue jumpers. The Coalition government has used this trope to their advantage with respect to “boat people”.

    Look to the Murdoch press to see which way the wind is blowing.

  20. Cut Snake
    The 2/2nd AGH Atherton Tablelands Hospital was vital, not least because it contained a ward of the Australian Army Malaria Research unit.

  21. If there was no further queue jumping by other schools, then damage might be successfully limited. That could well be a tipping point.

  22. Came across this story about the real LVT…

    ‘Lars Von Trier is known for being unpredictable, quixotic, puckish and deliberately provocative. But even he over-leaped his high standards of eccentricity as he spoke before the Cannes premiere of Melancholia, his latest film, announcing “I’m a Nazi” and that he “understands Hitler”.

    He also jokingly claimed he was writing a four-hour-long hardcore porn film featuring Melancholia stars Charlotte Gainsbourg and Kirsten Dunst. It would, he said, contain “a lot of very, very unpleasant sex”.

    The nazism remarks, which were jestingly made in response to a question about his German roots, would probably spell career suicide if uttered outside the rarefied atmosphere of the Cannes film festival – and indeed may yet.

    As Melancholia’s star Dunst looked on ashen-faced – at one point attempting to halt his flow with a restraining arm on his shoulder – he said: “I thought I was a Jew for a long time and was very happy being a Jew … Then it turned out that I was not a Jew … I found out that I was really a Nazi which also gave me some pleasure.

    “What can I say? I understand Hitler. He did some wrong things, absolutely, but I can see him sitting there in his bunker at the end … I sympathise with him, yes, a little bit.”


  23. The facilitator for the St Josephs debacle could easily be somebody high up in NSW health. Certainly somebody knew how to swing the system.

    And yeah, barring the numerous Rugby scholarships nobody sending their kids to a $35,000 a year private school is poor. A few people showing their age – we live in a less innocent time nowadays.

  24. Joeys = ALP hothouse

    “ Bill Heffernan
    Frank Downing (1907–1978), ALP MLA for Ryde, 1953–1968.
    Norm Ryan (1912–1997), ALP MLA for Marrickville, 1953–73.
    Harry Jensen (1913–1998), Lord Mayor of Sydney 1956-65, ALP MLA for Wyong & Munmorah, 1965-1981 and NSW Cabinet Minister 1976-81.
    Jack Doohan OBE (1920–2007), National Party member of the New South Wales Legislative Council 1978–91.
    Laurie McGinty MBE (1921–1991), Mayor of Willoughby 1960-67, Lib MLA for Willoughby 1968–1978 and NSW Cabinet Minister 1973–76.
    Hon Kevin Cairns [1945] (1929–1984), Lib, MHR seat of Lilley in Queensland 1963-80; Federal Cabinet Minister 1971–72.
    Alan Woods AC (1930–1990), Secretary of the Department of Defence 1986–88[3]
    Ernie Page OAM [1952], (1935–2018), Mayor of Waverley (Alderman 1962-1987), ALP MLA for Waverley (1981-1991) & Coogee (1991–2003) Minister for Local Government (1995–1999).
    Bill Heffernan (born 1943), Lib Senator for New South Wales since 1996.
    Craig Laundy [1988], Liberal MHR seat of Reid since 2013 and former Minister for Small and Family Business, the Workplace and Deregulation 2017–18.
    Roy Butler (Australian politician) [1994], (born 1977) Member of NSW Legislative Assembly for the seat of Barwon since March 2019.”

  25. Steelydan @ #1065 Tuesday, July 6th, 2021 – 8:27 pm

    Why the hatred towards private schools

    Because despite the name they all siphon limited public funds away from public schools.

    If they want to be private they should be 100% private; refuse all public funding and implement a business model where students (and their parents) provide the funds needed to run the school. If they do that then I’ve got nothing left against them. But they don’t, currently.

  26. So let me get this straight. Sydney Local Health District was asked to vaccinate aboriginal students. It agreed. So what was the “error” and on whose part?

    A bus load of students shows up. Who acts (literally) as gate keeper? Does this person go hey, hang on, this looks like a busload of students. Is there documentation? Or are the people at the hospital truly nice (and naïve) people who will wave a hundred students through?

    Gotta be documentation.

    And if you look at it from the school end. They get an email from Sydney Local Health District saying yeah go ahead and bring your aboriginal students over here. The school organises permissions from parents, and buses, for the whole lot?

    Surely someone on the school end might have acted as a check and balance?

    And you get the Liberal apologist here saying nothing untoward happened. Yeah, right…

  27. TanyaP asks a pertinent question…

    ‘Last week, with half the country under lockdown, @ScottMorrisonMP went three days without saying a word.
    This week, he’s gone four days without speaking in public.
    Will he reach a full five days of silence next week?

  28. poroti @ #1070 Tuesday, July 6th, 2021 – 8:33 pm

    The NSW Coalition incubator likely used an old and trusted rort of several “elite” schools. Lots of rich bustards from the bush send their kids to them . Hey ho the diddly o the school reckons they have got lots of pupils from ‘deprived’ areas . It makes them eligible for all sorts of extras as their catchment is so ‘povo’. It was quite a !! during the Rodent years, I imagine it is still a nice little earner.

    I’m as anti-Private schools as you can get. But I know an awful lot of Joey’s old boys, and it ain’t no “Coalition incubator”.

  29. Funny, the expressions “stretching credibility”, “pub test” and “court of public opinion” keep going through my mind…..

  30. Are the non-Aboriginal students who were in the COVID Express part of the “Aboriginal Industry”?

    Is Andrew Bolt on the case?

  31. CC I’m not saying nothing untoward happened just that I don’t blame the school. NSW Health seemed to decide to vaccinate the whole group which was an obvious error. It would be nice to know on what basis the decision was made.

  32. “Will he reach a full five days of silence next week?”

    I think you need a full 28 days to declare elimination..

  33. davidwh

    That would depend precisely on what the correspond was between the Health District and the school.

    If the HD said to the school “we will vaccinate your aboriginal kids” then it beggars belief why the school would have gone through all the process needed to organise busloads of kids. You expect someone to read the word “aboriginal” and act accordingly.

    If on the other hand the HD has written to the school saying “send all your students over 18” then again, you’d expect checks and balances to kick in. I can’t imagine anyone in the HD not knowing the rules. So which is it.. the school doing something wrong or the HD doing something wrong.

    And even if the HD literally sent an email saying “send all your over 18 students”.. don’t you expect someone at the school to know the rules and question them?

    Takes some level of malfeasance or nigh on unbelievable negligence/naivety on both ends for this to work.

  34. Riverview has a bigger indigenous student program probably all boarders.

    Presumably the indigenous boarders were vaccinated.

  35. CC I can envisage someone in HD taking the position that to fully protect the indigenous students then all close contacts need to be vaccinated. That could be an error made on a belief it was justified.
    But based on the information we have so far we just don’t know.

  36. Is it medically contraindicated to vaccinate six persons of 150 living in close quarters if the six are high risk to themselves and family?

  37. We may soon see Bridget McKenzie pop along to tell us that giving the entire private school the Pfizer is legal so that’s that. And Simon Birmingham will say the kids parents voted for this government & got what they voted for.

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