Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Labor edges back into the lead on two-party preferred, but very little change overall from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor returning to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred after a tied result last time, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). Changes on leadership ratings are likewise very modest, with Scott Morrison up a point on approval to 55% and down two on disapproval to 41%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down two to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is barely changed at 53-33, compared with 53-32 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE (29/6): The Australian has published further results from the poll relating to COVID-19, including a fourth go at the question of how the Prime Minister has handled the situation. This series records a pattern of decline since his debut result of 85% good and 14% poor in April last year, to a current showing of 61% good (down nine over the last two months) and 36% bad (up nine points). Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout is down three to 50% compared with two months ago, with dissatisfied up three to 46%. A new question on whether Labor would have done better turns up a neutral result, with 25% saying better, 36% no difference and 27% worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,469 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. P1
    “I believe some GPs are willing to do it sooner than 12 weeks, which (from memory) was just a figure plucked out of the air by the UK when the AZ vaccine was in short supply there.”

    No. That figure was based on the results of trials. I twas found to be the time that gave maximum efficacy. You should get the second dose as close to it as possible for maximum protection.

  2. The AFL Hub is back… and it’s in Melbourne

    In further AFL news, Adelaide and Port Adelaide will relocate to Victoria, meaning all 18 AFL clubs will be temporarily based in the state.

    Despite the SA government deciding against a lockdown, the AFL has opted to move the Crows and the Power squads, who will fly out for Melbourne later on Wednesday afternoon.

    Port’s clash with Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium on Saturday will go ahead as planned, but a new venue will need to be found for Adelaide’s game, previously scheduled for the Adelaide Oval, against the Brisbane Lions.

  4. According to the data, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was 96% effective against hospitalisation or death caused by the Delta variant following two doses.
    The AZ vaccine was 92% effective against hospitalisation or death from the Delta variant after two doses.

    The data also showed that a single dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was 94% effective at preventing hospitalisation, while AZ’s jab was 71% effective after the first dose.

    The other issue here is that preventing hospitalization and death is just one factor. From the standpoint of public policy, maybe it’s the main factor. But from the standpoint of someone choosing to be vaccinated other factors, such as the ability of the vaccine to prevent infection (or “symptomatic infection”) in the first place, also rate.

    Not dying is great, but not getting infected to begin with is even better. It avoids the risk of long-term complications from covid (of which there appear to be several, and which may not be fully understood for some time), it hugely reduces your chance of infecting others (better epidemiologically), and is more convenient than becoming ill (a cold won’t kill you either, but most people would rather not catch one if given the choice).

    The AZ numbers against symptomatic infection are provided in the article:

    The AZ vaccine was also less effective against symptomatic disease caused by the Alpha variant (previously known as the Kent or UK variant) and the Delta variant, with protection levels of 74% and 64%, respectively.

    …strangely, the corresponding Pfizer numbers aren’t cited. However these appear to be 92% generally and 88% against the Delta variant.

    Completely understandable if people are choosing to hold out for the vaccine that confers stronger immunity, imo. What’s not understandable is why the government is taking so long to provide it.

  5. Personally I think the quarantine debacle is the main failure of the federal government. I don’t see much upside to all this focus on vaccination shortcomings. We made a decision on A-Z which proved to be less than ideal due to the clotting issue but we have to work with what we have for now.
    All the hyped negativity about A-Z served little benefit in my opinion.

  8. [‘Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may provide years of protection from COVID-19.

    A small study suggests that mRNA vaccines may offer long-term protection as long as the virus doesn’t evolve significantly.’]

    https://www.livescience.com/mrna-covid-19-vaccines-long-term-protection.html?utm_source=Selligent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=LVS_newsletter&utm_content=LVS_newsletter+&utm_term=6636498&m_i=nPTlE5ENgb%2BxcZFH1abTivUZVC3FNunbM5_WzPaJhvzOXtl%2BBBR8QaMg1sPSv0lPQlX_gQWb28BO6o13t0gCQ56L0ssDhKxqSPIg%2B3nnnH&lrh=25f906472b12cdd513ad18c658ff4f7a33fb3db4f23d726a7285e99a19b7a0cf

  12. Mavis @ #2108 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 2:29 pm

    [‘Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may provide years of protection from COVID-19.

    A small study suggests that mRNA vaccines may offer long-term protection as long as the virus doesn’t evolve significantly.’]

    I can’t find the link right now, but I read a report earlier today that J. Young had said that while viruses usually evolve to become less dangerous, this one is going the opposite direction. (As if we’re not already nervous enough.)

  13. Morrison and his cronies claimed millions of doses of Pfizer was supposed to be here by mid-end of July

    Makes it more remarkable of Morrison’s statement on AstraZeneca

  15. @canberratimes tweets

    “It was not a national cabinet decision, it was one that the Prime Minister has made of his own accord,” ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr said of the AstraZeneca changes. Via @lucybladen and @D_JervisBardy

  16. Antony Green
    @AntonyGreenABC
    ·
    37m
    The Liberal Party’s most marginal seat of Ripon, held by Louise Staley, becomes a Labor seat with a margin of 2.6% on the new electoral boundaries. #springst

    I needed a laugh. Thanks to Antony. 🙂

  18. ”
    Ballantynesays:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 2:34 pm
    davidwh @ #2098 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 2:20 pm

    We are scheduled to get our second A-Z next Tuesday as long as we aren’t locked up still.

    My understanding is that you’re allowed to go for the jab even under lockdown. I have to wait until August 3rd.
    ”

    Don’t wait till August 3rd if you want earlier. Check with your GP if he/she can arrange it earlier.

  19. Why is Hunt ignoring this advice

    ATAGI considers the benefit of vaccination in preventing COVID-19 with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca outweighs the risk of TTS in people aged 60 and above. For this age group, the benefits of receiving a COVID-19 vaccine are greater than in younger people. The risks of severe outcomes with COVID-19 increase with age and are particularly high in older unvaccinated individuals.

  21. Surely, any British figures on AZ must be tempered by their rushing of the second injection caused by their second (or third wave). The trials showed the vaccine is most effective with the second dose at 12 weeks

  22. Don’t wait till August 3rd if you want earlier. Check with your GP if he/she can arrange it earlier.

    Not good advice given the trial findings

  23. Ven @12.50am
    “Lawyer talk. If it had been the senator or HOR from any of the major parties or Hanson, Greens will be demanding answers now. Not later. Now”
    That may be the case however the details of the confrontation seems somewhat under reported.

  24. I think it’s time for the states to separately source their vaccines of choice independently from the Commonwealth, and arrange for distribution to their citizens through their own resources.

    As one of the over 60’s,I would even happily pay for my Pfizer/Modena jabs, over and above the taxes I pay.

    Relying on Morrison, given his Government’s track record, is a dangerous act of futility and madness.

  25. Late Riser:

    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 2:43 pm

    [‘I can’t find the link right now, but I read a report earlier today that J. Young had said that while viruses usually evolve to become less dangerous, this one is going the opposite direction. (As if we’re not already nervous enough.)’]

    Well if that’s true it doesn’t augur well given that the qualifier in my post on Moderna & Pfizer says that they’ll only provide protection if ‘virus doesn’t evolve significantly’. I wonder if the delta strain is classified as a significant evolution? Anyway, good to see you back posting.

  26. Late Riser @ #2112 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 2:43 pm

    Mavis @ #2108 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 2:29 pm

    [‘Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may provide years of protection from COVID-19.

    A small study suggests that mRNA vaccines may offer long-term protection as long as the virus doesn’t evolve significantly.’]

    I can’t find the link right now, but I read a report earlier today that J. Young had said that while viruses usually evolve to become less dangerous, this one is going the opposite direction. (As if we’re not already nervous enough.)

    She said it during the press conference so may not be written anywhere except in a journalist’s report.

  28. davidwh…..In WA, despite the lock down, vaccinations are available and these are not restricted or curtailed – well as of now anyway.
    Not sure I agree with your view regarding the poor roll out of the vaccine.
    Three months ago, just 15 places in the whole of Perth for said vaccinations….three close by to where I live – no vacancies for weeks.
    My local GP had nil doses and, when I checked for ‘flu jab some six weeks later, local GP had just 50 doses of AZ a week to cater for a list of 3,000 priority patients…and no ‘flu vaccine at all.
    Listened to talk-back today and the experiences here in Perth ranged from “I walked in and got it done straight away” to……………”No vacancies until the end of September..”
    From my perspective this roll out has been a total, and utter shamble……………………not withstanding the equally shambolic effort with quarantine via hotels…

  29. OC

    If people can socially isolate for that length of time yes.

    I agree with you on consistency.
    We would not have this national health messaging disaster if consistency in following medical advice was the standard.

  32. Mavis @ #2121 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 3:03 pm

    Well if that’s true it doesn’t augur well given that the qualifier in my post on Moderna & Pfizer says that they’ll only provide protection if ‘virus doesn’t evolve significantly’. I wonder if the delta strain is classified as a significant evolution?

    Pfizer 88% effective against symptomatic Delta infection. I think that makes the answer to your question “mostly no”.

  33. @RachealHasIdeas tweets

    Everyone* (State and Federal leaders) needs to shut up for 48 hours, get your stories straight and then come back with a well considered plan. For the love of god.

    This is our lives and livelihoods. Get a grip, put politics aside and be clear on what we need to do as a nation. Whoever is running comms…fire them, now. And stop talking. Talk less, do more.

  34. Socrates @ #2101 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 2:23 pm

    No. That figure was based on the results of trials. I twas found to be the time that gave maximum efficacy. You should get the second dose as close to it as possible for maximum protection.

    This is definitely not true. You can look it up in the British Medical Journal. But for some reason I cannot post the link.

  36. You can find the BMJ article by googling “Covid-19 vaccination: What’s the evidence for extending the dosing interval?” but any post here containing the link itself doesn’t appear.

    Weird.

  37. a r:

    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 3:12 pm

    [‘Pfizer 88% effective against symptomatic Delta infection. I think that makes the answer to your question “mostly no”.’]

    Thanks. So Morrison should be okay but I wonder about those who’ve had at least one shot of AZ?

  38. @cosmicpinot tweets
    So @ProfPCDoherty – We have a quandary With vaccinations here in Oz. If you get AZ now, you won’t be fully immunized until October. If you wait for Pfizer/Moderna you may well get fully immunized before this. But people are at risk now, and AZ provides some protection. 1/2

    An obvious step is to take AZ now, and Pfizer/Moderna when available If this is safe and effective. I believe Canada is already doing this. What would Australia need to do to see if this is the correct strategy right now for getting us immunized as fast as possible. 2/2

    @ProfCDoherty tweets

    Yes: need a clear message from the Feds now that, if you have 1 or 2 shots of AstraZeneca (new data suggests 4-6 weeks apart is fine) they can get a Pfizer or (Moderna) boost later. AZ then Pfizer is now thoroughly trialed. One dose of AZ gives 70% protection re severe disease.

  39. @canberratimes tweets

    “It was not a national cabinet decision, it was one that the Prime Minister has made of his own accord,” ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr said of the AstraZeneca changes. Via @lucybladen and @D_JervisBardy

    ______________________________________

    This is how Morrison totally fucks up everything.

    The idea of making AZ available to people under 60 who make a fully informed decision to have an injection is a good one in my opinion. But before it is announced there is a need to align all of the stakeholders (and if they cannot be aligned, at least determine their positions).

    But Spinocchio can’t resist an announcement. When I heard it, I thought it had been a decision of the so-called National Cabinet, perhaps even thrust on Morrison, where he was just trying to get the credit for a collective decision made after appropriate planning and consultation.

    But no – the bastard was almost certainly trying to pretend that it had been a National Cabinet decision by including it in the following announcement without ANY preparation of ANY kind.

    It’s how he does everything now. Announce first and don’t even worry about the delivery, because the only political benefit is in the announcement. And then blame the public service if things don’t happen or go wrong.

    I have long held that Abbott was the worst Prime Minister in the history of Australia. I reluctantly have to accept that Spinocchio has now moved ahead of him. Because of his incompetence, because of the corruption of the government he leads and because of his and his government’s incredibly fascistic tendency to crush public information.

    It is thanks to all the Premiers and Chief Ministers, of all political persuasions, that so few Australian lives have been lost in this pandemic. If lives are lost now, here or overseas, their bodies belong at the door of this clown and the rapacious, egocentric slime buckets who form his government.

  41. Pretty sure I saw this one referenced on PB earlier today, https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/pfizerbiontech,_az_vaccines_effective_against_delta_covid-19_variant_after_two_doses_1371713 (it mentions Apr – Jun, and an earlier Apr – May, both UK studies.)

    “… the Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine was 96% effective against hospitalisation or death caused by the Delta variant following two doses.

    The AZ vaccine was 92% effective against hospitalisation or death from the Delta variant after two doses. [We’ve had AZ jab one, next one not till mid Aug.]

    The data also showed that a single dose of the Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine was 94% effective at preventing hospitalisation or death, while AZ’s jab was 71% effective after the first dose.“

  43. I’m 36 and have had 2 jabs of AstraZeneca. No bad side effects apart from a sore arm at the injection site. Had the 2 doses 2.5 months apart. I can’t understand the fear-mongering by politicians. The advice is clear. It’s not recommended for under 60s but as an alternative to Pfizer (being in short supply) there is a low risk of developing blood clots. That should be the message that should be pushed out. I’d actually encourage anyone and everyone to go out and get an AZ shot ASAP. If you procrastinate, and wait for Pfizer, believing it’s far superior, you run the risk of delaying further our recovery and path out of lock downs. Anyway……that’s my 2 cents on this matter.

  44. Thanks Ven for that but I’ll be going with my doctor’s advice re the 12 week gap. Indeed, in line with Oakeshott’s comment (thanks also, OC).

  45. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 1:24 pm
    Sceptic

    No two year wait if patent waived for Covid vaccines.
    Let’s be crystal clear. Politicians are putting profit before young people’s health.
    There are even alternatives available for purchase if we can’t manufacture them and get the patent waived.
    This is all on the choices of our Federal Government

    No it’s not Politicians putting profit first (at least not directly) it’s the US drug companies, Biden did mumble something about it but lost his bottle along the way.

  46. ”
    Scepticsays:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 12:19 pm
    Ok.. as they say.. Out of an abundance of caution, this advice is acceptable.. why the fuck wasn’t it the message from the beginning… 4 months ago.

    “I think ATAGI [the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation] is the group that we need to respect,” Dr Chant said, adding that “ATAGI has said that people can make personal choices but they need to be informed”.

    “The view I have is that, in a mass vaccination clinic, the detailed risk discussions cannot take place and they are discussions best to have with your GP.”
    ”

    Some people will say that Since you cannot have detailed risk discussions you shouldn’t have Mass vaccination clinics.

    Correct me if I am wrong, but NSW government was the first government to set up a Mass vaccination clinic at Homebush, Sydney. Everyone from Morrison government to Murdoch press, to Costello Fairfax 9 news, to Stokes Channel 7 and even our ABC were gushing about it as master stroke to vaccinate people in large numbers. They were positively gushing that NSW vaccination numbers are large when compared to other states because of that.

    Now you say you cannot do detailed risk assessment of people who want to get vaccinated. We are very lucky that nothing bad happened to people after vaccination other than a few blood clots that can be counted on finger tips. You know why? Because the vaccination is very good. That is why.
    Research found out that only 0.004 % of people who took AZ vaccination are hospitalised if they get COVID.

  47. Paul Karp at the Guardian has posted an update on the Porter situation. Further detail of the statement give to NSW police by James Hooke.

    Oh, Dear.

    Edit: I am mindful of Bilbo’s bank balance and am careful in how I wrote the post.

  48. The idea of making AZ available to people under 60 who make a fully informed decision to have an injection is a good one in my opinion.

    Not a good way to get people vaccinated quickly and cheaply. But when you effed up the backup plan then you are left chasing your cluster f’s.

  49. a r:

    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 3:39 pm

    [‘AZ 64% effective against symptomatic Delta infection. But that’s after both doses. Single-dose protection would be less.’]

    Thanks again. Not bad but Pfizer seems to be the almost gold standard, and which Queensland only has 8,000 doses of.

  50. P1

    I don’t know where you are getting your information from but a quite recent (Feb 21) article in the BMJ confirms that 12 weeks remains the optimal time between AZ doses for maximum efficacy.
    https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n326

    4 weeks is the minimum time between doses on the SA and Federal health websites. But 12 weeks remains the recommended time.
    https://www.sahealth.sa.gov.au/wps/wcm/connect/3dfa0fd2-aca3-4920-8528-ae0f6e7347d9/20210624+COVID-19+Vaccine+FAQs.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-3dfa0fd2-aca3-4920-8528-ae0f6e7347d9-nEX.4K.

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