Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Labor edges back into the lead on two-party preferred, but very little change overall from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor returning to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred after a tied result last time, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). Changes on leadership ratings are likewise very modest, with Scott Morrison up a point on approval to 55% and down two on disapproval to 41%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down two to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is barely changed at 53-33, compared with 53-32 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE (29/6): The Australian has published further results from the poll relating to COVID-19, including a fourth go at the question of how the Prime Minister has handled the situation. This series records a pattern of decline since his debut result of 85% good and 14% poor in April last year, to a current showing of 61% good (down nine over the last two months) and 36% bad (up nine points). Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout is down three to 50% compared with two months ago, with dissatisfied up three to 46%. A new question on whether Labor would have done better turns up a neutral result, with 25% saying better, 36% no difference and 27% worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,469 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Oakeshott country @ #1194 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 3:01 pm

    Surely, any British figures on AZ must be tempered by their rushing of the second injection caused by their second (or third wave). The trials showed the vaccine is most effective with the second dose at 12 weeks

    The British Lancet paper compared efficacy at 4 to 6 weeks vs >=12 weeks spacing. I have seen no reports of comparisons between, say 10 weeks and 12 weeks (Have you? If so, where, please?). The 12 weeks ‘magical’ number seems to be an artifact of the original study circumstances, in which separate cohorts were given second doses at intervals of around 4 and 12 weeks, and no other combinations were tested at all.

    To quote:
    “The University of Oxford-sponsored studies were initially planned as single-dose studies but were amended to incorporate a second dose after review of the phase 1 immunogenicity data, which showed a substantial increase in neutralising antibody with a second dose of vaccine.
    After initially providing consent to participate in a single-dose study, some participants chose not to receive the second dose, providing a self-selected cohort of single-dose recipients. Additionally, because of the time required to manufacture the second dose, there were delays in administration of the second dose for a large number of trial participants who received the two-dose schedule. These two situations provide an opportunity to explore the immunogenicity and efficacy of a single dose of vaccine, and the effect of an extended interval before delivery of the second dose. “

  2. P1, (and Soc)

    P1
    “I believe some GPs are willing to do it sooner than 12 weeks, which (from memory) was just a figure plucked out of the air by the UK when the AZ vaccine was in short supply there.”

    No. That figure was based on the results of trials. I twas found to be the time that gave maximum efficacy. You should get the second dose as close to it as possible for maximum protection.

    Apparently having after 6 weeks does not make a lot of difference to the immunity – pretty much the same as 1 dose.

    Every week after 6 weeks adds extra protection in a fairly linear way. I heard a doctor explain this to a couple who had a trip to Greece booked for about 7 weeks away. He advised to wait as long as possible before getting the second dose, and definitely not before 7 weeks.

    He sounds like someone trying to be patient and explain that just because you can find a way to get permission to travel during a pandemic (presumably at least business class airfares), that does not mean that there are different facts for the efficacy of your vaccination.

  3. Windhover
    April 2021..
    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-uk-deaths-clots-az-jabs.html
    A total of 168 people have suffered rare blood clots after taking the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine in Britain, and 32 have died, the UK’s medicines regulator said Thursday.

    The figures for clots or “thromboembolic events” run up to April 14, by when 21.2 million people had received first doses of the vaccine, according to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

    https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/medicine/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clots-statistics-percentage/

    Of 21.2 million doses of AstraZeneca given in the UK by April 14th 2021, there were 168 cases of blood clots, and 32 deaths resulting. That’s approximately 8 cases per million, or 0.0008%.

    I think you have decimal place in the wrong place.. by a long way!

    Edit
    Even the 0.0008% could be an exaggeration as early case were misdiagnosed & effect treatment is the norm.

  4. Not a good way to get people vaccinated quickly and cheaply. But when you effed up the backup plan then you are left chasing your cluster f’s.

    ________________________________________

    It’s the old joke about someone asking a local for directions and told “Well I wouldn’t start from here”.

    It’s where we are. Even salvage operations require massive amounts of planning, not just sending a few people and some machinery out and announce it will all be fixed and look like new.

  5. I would suggest the only jurisdictions in this country that have a clear position on what age group should get what vaccine are Queensland and WA.

    In both states at pressers today the two premiers and their two chief health officers have been very very clear on their position.

    Morrison is the one who has muddied the waters over this by his statement on Monday night and as a result it is Morrison who has caused the confusion.

  6. Socrates @ #2150 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 3:54 pm

    P1

    I don’t know where you are getting your information from but a quite recent (Feb 21) article in the BMJ confirms that 12 weeks remains the optimal time between AZ doses for maximum efficacy.

    I am getting the information from the same place you are – the British Medical Journal. I dont know why the link won’t work, but google is your friend.

    Also, your article does not say that 12 weeks is the “optimal” time. In fact, it specifically says that “the study was not designed to look at different dosing gaps”. All it concludes is that 12 weeks is a better strategy than 3 or 4 weeks because “more people can be protected more quickly” by getting at least one dose.

    There are other articles that suggest a much longer delay between doses (up to 45 weeks) would be even better.

    Do you therefore plan to wait 45 weeks for your second dose?


  7. guytaursays:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 12:19 pm
    Barney

    No my point was very clear.

    I defended the right of a politician in a minority view to make her case.

    I did not defend the case or the way it was made.

    On that I made no comment one way or the other

    Green say one should not abuse other people. Fine
    Greens say abusing women is wrong and such people should be punished. Fine.
    Greens say Aboriginal people should be respected, not abused and not subject to other forms of persecution. Fine
    But a Greens Senator does it anyway because that Senator allegedly / reportedly thinks she is entitled to be aggressive and abusive because she is a Senator and earns more than the person that is abused.
    She not only behaved aggressively to another person, she did that to another woman and that to another aboriginal woman. It does not give her a right to do that as a aboriginal woman let alone a Senator. That is not the way to pur forward ‘minority view’.

    This is perfect example of wokeness.
    This is not the first time it has happened. Remember 3 or 4 years ago Victorian Greens Parliamentary leader resigned quietly after it came to light that he abused Greens legislative women members and staff . In NSW it was absolute dog fight between Lee Riahannon and other parliamentary members.

  8. guytaur,

    @ProfCDoherty tweets

    Yes: need a clear message from the Feds now that, if you have 1 or 2 shots of AstraZeneca (new data suggests 4-6 weeks apart is fine) they can get a Pfizer or (Moderna) boost later. AZ then Pfizer is now thoroughly trialed. One dose of AZ gives 70% protection re severe disease.

    Thanks for that. My info is obviously old now.

  9. If people read the BMJ article I posted, it looks specifically at the varying degrees of protection gained by people receiving the AZ vaccine at different time intervals.

    “The study found vaccine efficacy reached 82.4% after a second dose in those with a dosing interval of 12 weeks or more (95% confidence interval 62.7% to 91.7%). If the two doses were given less than six weeks apart the efficacy was only 54.9% (CI 32.7% to 69.7%).”

    So you almost halve the rate of effectiveness of the AZ vaccine if you have the second dose too early. It does not appear possible from the article to say what the difference in effectiveness is at intermediate time gaps.

  10. Guytaur

    Thanks, the information I just posted is out of date too!

    We really need a nationally coordinated information campaign on this stuff. I just looked up the Federal health website and it does NOT make that change clear.

  11. Ven

    You quoted me. Then you verbal led me.

    Sorry it does not fly.

    I made no comment specifically so stop dragging me into zoomsters arguments.

    Edit: With a reminder I am NOT a representative of the Greens.

  12. We really need a nationally coordinated information campaign on this stuff. I just looked up the Federal health website and it does NOT make that change clear.

    _____________________________________

    Huge amounts of data are being created in real time right now. We are all flying blind – the epidemiologists, the scientists working on the vaccines current and prospective, and the public.

    All we are getting is the Federal government taking whatever data suits them at a particular point (the so-called medical advice) and massaging (or beating if necessary) that data into a shape that suits its self-centred political objectives.

    The States and Territories do this too to some extent, but all of them (even Gladys finally) are still there for the public health and the national interest. Only the Federal Coalition government prioritises itself and its donors and supporters first and foremost above all other interests.

  13. OC, the Fienians in Ireland are reducing the AZ gap to 4 weeks….

    THE GOVERNMENT HAS agreed to proceed with advice from the National Immunisation Advisory Committee (NIAC) to reduce the interval between doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine from eight weeks to four.

    In Ireland the two mRNA vaccines, Pfizer and Moderna, are administered in two doses four weeks apart but there is a gap of eight weeks for the AstraZeneca jab.

    This reduction to a four-week gap comes following a previous reduction from 12 to eight weeks, but why is this being reduced further?

    In short, the decision is a reaction to the forecasted increase in prevalence of the Delta variant of Covid-19 and how this will impact transmissions and potential hospitalisations.

    In his letter to the Minister for Health published today, Chief Medical Officer Dr. Tony Holohan noted that the Delta variant is likely to “grow sharply over the coming weeks”.

    Holohan also says that there is evidence that vaccines offer “somewhat less protection” against the Delta variant.

    Research has shown that these concerns are particularly acute following just one dose rather than two, with AstraZeneca showing a lower efficacy particularly after one dose.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/explainer-astrazeneca-5480746-Jun2021/

  14. C’mon c/- the Guardian?

    “Meanwhile, in Western Australia, police have charged a 56-year-old woman of no fixed address for failing to wear a face mask.

    On Tuesday morning, police allege the woman was sitting on a bench in Perth without a mask, and when they approached her to explain the face mask rule and offered her a free mask, she refused to do so.

    She was arrested, charged and refused bail. She appeared in Perth Magistrates Court today, and has been remanded in custody and is next due to appear in court on 5 July.”

  15. Griff, Windhover (and others)

    Regarding the efficacy numbers.

    Those numbers are comparing vaccinated and exposed to the virus versus non vaccinated and exposed to the virus.

    With Pfizer, if you are exposed, your odds of landing in hospital are 4% of what they were if you weren’t vaccinated. With AZ your risk is 8%.

    This is for Delta. Let me point out a few things.

    First, these numbers are study-wide. Your risk still accelerates if you are older.

    Second, whatever your base risk, if you take AZ and are exposed, your risk of hospitalisation is doubled, relative to Pfizer.

    On that point alone, we should never “open up”until the most at-risk (elderly and given AZ) are given a booster.

    Third and most importantly. Your absolute risk scales with risk of exposure. And this is where herd immunity makes an enormous difference to your personal risk.

    If we don’t have herd immunity, the virus will spread explosively among the non vaccinated and thus potentially expose almost every vaccinated person (unless we keep the non vaccinated on islands). The results won’t be pretty.

    This is why Pfizer’s 88% versus AZ’s 60% matters. This figure (symptomatic) is a better proxy for reduction in retransmission.

    Israel is struggling with the Delta variant (mostly driven by nonvaccinated young people). The UK is totally losing it. The vaccine does matter.

  16. there is no proof that this vaccine causes blood clots..

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/evidence-oxford-vaccine-blood-clots-data-causal-links

    As Ireland’s deputy chief medical officer, Ronan Glynn, has stressed, there is no proof that this vaccine causes blood clots. It’s a common human tendency to attribute a causal effect between different events..

    Call it luck, chance or fate – it’s difficult to incorporate this into our thinking. So when the European Medicines Agency says there have been 30 “thromboembolic events” after around 5m vaccinations, the crucial question to ask is: how many would be expected anyway, in the normal run of things?

    We can try a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation. Deep vein thromboses (DVTs) happen to around one person per 1,000 each year, and probably more in the older population being vaccinated. Working on the basis of these figures, out of 5 million people getting vaccinated, we would expect significantly more than 5,000 DVTs a year, or at least 100 every week. So it is not at all surprising that there have been 30 reports…..

    But I don’t think we can ever fully rationalise ourselves out of the basic and often creative urge to find patterns even where none exist. Perhaps we can just hope for some basic humility before claiming we know why something has happened.

    David Spiegelhalter is chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge

  17. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 4:25 pm
    Jane Halton is supporting Morrison – sort of – and Karvelas is more confused than ever.
    ————-

    Wasn’t the promise of clear answers from Karvelas show , looks like that promise quickly disappeared

  18. Barnaby being a moron … again …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/29/barnaby-joyce-says-australia-needs-low-emission-coal-stations-and-backs-nuclear-power

    Joyce said small modular reactors could “power the city of Tamworth, the city of Armidale and a lot of other towns beside” with technology you could transport “on the back of a truck”.

    Now, I’m actually in favor of nuclear power … but only in countries with the necessary expertise, training and infrastructure … which does not include Australia. We don’t even have the capability to run a goddam coal plant safely and reliably, so the idea of us having nuclear reactors in small regional towns, allocated no doubt on the basis of political benefit rather than actual need, just fills me with horror 🙁

  19. Just consider the following,

    If Morrison had just kept his gob shut on Monday night instead of ( for whatever reason whether it be political , arse covering etc etc etc ) flying solo this “ debate “ and the confusion it is causing would not be happening.

  20. If Morrison had just kept his gob shut on Monday night instead of ( for whatever reason whether it be political , arse covering etc etc etc ) flying solo this “ debate “ and the confusion it is causing would not be happening.
    ______
    doyley
    That’s what blind political panic does to the man.

  21. Mick from GC

    I agree with you. I’m barely 50, and I’ve had one AZ jab (only minor side effects). I had a LOT of people caution me against getting AZ. Sod it, I thought, the chance of getting a blood clot was infinitisemally small. I don’t regret my decision at all.

  22. @bengrubb tweets

    I asked my GP about AstraZeneca vaccine today and she gave me this and a five minute speech about how the PM should keep his nose out of medical advice. I must say I didn’t realise that my odds of clot were this. I thought it was 1 in a million, not 1 in 50,000.

    My doctor said she’s had to cancel all telehealth consultations because the phone doesn’t even work at the moment due to all available lines being taken up by people calling to try to book AstraZeneca appointments.

    Edit:
    Sorry photo link did not work

  23. Spoiler alert it doesn’t mean the vaccine killed them

    ____________

    Sceptic
    Correct, but do you think our pathetic mainstream media will write it up that way, especially if Morrison uses it for distraction purposes?

  24. Covid not the only killer.

    “Dozens of people have died in Canada amid an unprecedented heatwave that has smashed temperature records. Police in the Vancouver area have responded to more than 130 sudden deaths since Friday. Most were elderly or had underlying health conditions…”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57654133

    I had not realised that such extremely high temperatures were possible anywhere in Canada

  25. Confusion suits Morrison. It gives him space and time to reframe a debate. And shifting some of the heat away from the quarantine and vaccine discussions may be a nice short term effect for him as well. The Qld government getting in fast this morning was a good response to counter his tactic.

  26. lizzie @ #2181 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 4:52 pm

    We need to remember that all doctors are not politically neutral.

    When OH and I asked a senior surgeon recently about getting the AZ vaccine (unrelated medical issues gave us the opportunity) he paused then said, “I probably shouldn’t be saying this. But get the vaccination. You’re safer with it than without.” Both of us did so within the hour, and we’re now six weeks from our second jab. I hope most medical professionals will separate the politics from the science even if they have to acknowledge it.

  27. P1

    On the absurdity of small nuclear reactors we are agreed. Just a red herring to delay implementing renewable power. I am not philosophically against nuclear power but on cost grounds it is insane.

    In fact the claims about “small nuclear”, like “low emission coal” have been made before and already debunked.
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/big-claims-and-corporate-spin-about-small-nuclear-reactor-costs-65726/

    It would be more credible to talk about low-recidivism National MPs.

  28. boerwar @ #2185 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 5:01 pm

    Exclusive: statement by Macquarie Bank director James Hooke alleges former attorney general boasted to him about the woman’
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/30/statement-nsw-police-raises-questions-christian-porter-denial-sex-with-accuser

    Interesting. Also noteworthy in that article, “There is no suggestion that Porter deliberately misled the public with this claim, nor that the statement has any bearing on the central rape allegation which Porter strenuously denies.” The L in LNP stands for Litigious, methinks.

  29. P1

    Now, I’m actually in favor of nuclear power … but only in countries with the necessary expertise, training and infrastructure … which does not include Australia. We don’t even have the capability to run a goddam coal plant safely and reliably, so the idea of us having nuclear reactors in small regional towns, allocated no doubt on the basis of political benefit rather than actual need, just fills me with horror

    I agree with this. France does nuclear energy very well, but the government also subsidises it very heavily, so it is safe and effective. Otherwise there is no way the French population would support it (from a friend who works at CEA Saclay).

    However, the French get hidden benefits from their nuclear power program – excellent atomic and nuclear research.

    And after June 1940, they will do whatever it takes to NEVER end up in that situation again.

  30. Kakuru, LR

    I am 57 and have also had my first AZ jab. My greatest risk was in driving to the clinic. You have a greater risk of dying from shark attack (5 deaths this year vs 2 from AZ clots).

    The legitimate objection from both Qld and the AMA was the failure of Morrison to consult with National Cabinet and GPs, having met them only that morning. So GPs got swamped with calls and had no idea what was going on. Also Morrison had no right to go around ATAGI.

  31. Shellbell,

    C’mon c/- the Guardian?

    “Meanwhile, in Western Australia, police have charged a 56-year-old woman of no fixed address for failing to wear a face mask.

    On Tuesday morning, police allege the woman was sitting on a bench in Perth without a mask, and when they approached her to explain the face mask rule and offered her a free mask, she refused to do so.

    She was arrested, charged and refused bail. She appeared in Perth Magistrates Court today, and has been remanded in custody and is next due to appear in court on 5 July.”

    Bayesian approach to policing? Being homeless while black?

    Note, I have no idea, but we get more than a bit of this in “the Fern”.

  32. @GreenJ tweets
    i think if someone ran in the next election on a platform of sober, efficient, painfully honest competence they’d clean up.
    someone truly dull but effective.

    or a deer. at this point i’d vote for a deer.

  33. I note that supporters of Morrison/LNP are finding ways of criticising state officials/ministers. It’s tough, but they bend to the task with enthusiasm.

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