Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Labor edges back into the lead on two-party preferred, but very little change overall from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor returning to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred after a tied result last time, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). Changes on leadership ratings are likewise very modest, with Scott Morrison up a point on approval to 55% and down two on disapproval to 41%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down two to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is barely changed at 53-33, compared with 53-32 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE (29/6): The Australian has published further results from the poll relating to COVID-19, including a fourth go at the question of how the Prime Minister has handled the situation. This series records a pattern of decline since his debut result of 85% good and 14% poor in April last year, to a current showing of 61% good (down nine over the last two months) and 36% bad (up nine points). Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout is down three to 50% compared with two months ago, with dissatisfied up three to 46%. A new question on whether Labor would have done better turns up a neutral result, with 25% saying better, 36% no difference and 27% worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,469 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. It’s 26 hours since my AZ jab and so far not much reaction – some sore joints but that could be due to weeding and sawing!

  3. Genuine question (I once worked in low level nuclear waste storage design), how do the French manage the low level waste, and the high level stuff too for that matter?

  5. Hmmm,

    With AZ and age, I think we need more information.

    I found an amazing GP near us who saw my mother before her first and second doses. If my GP retires (I fear she is my age or older), I will definitely go to this woman.

    Mum’s second dose was last Wed, and she was all over the stats. Read the odds for mum from a table (very low odds of complications at 86), and said she mum could divide the probability of her getting blood clots by 14, as this was a second dose.

    However, for younger people, the risk is definitely higher.

    Does anyone know if the age profile for the chance of being affected by the weird low-platelet blood clots?

    Does it match the age profile of developing above rare and weird condition?

    Or are we into Poisson statistics?

    Thanks in advance for answers.

  6. Looks like NSW is joining Qld and WA.

    NSW clinics will not give AstraZeneca to under-40s

    Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said the discussions needed for a younger person to receive AstraZeneca could not take place at mass vaccination hubs.

    This comes after Prime Minister Scott Morrison said anyone could receive AstraZeneca at a GP clinic despite ATAGI recommending Pfizer as the preferred shot for under-60s. (SMH )

  9. Let’s just do a little thought experiment … if you were the leader of a nation, and you had completely failed to order enough vaccines for the population, which all evidence suggests is simply crying out to get vaccinated, largely because you had also screwed up the quarantine system and were now facing a new and deadly wave of the virus as a result … would you perhaps consider trying to generate some vaccine hesitancy so that you could then claim there were indeed enough vaccines to meet the demand and it was therefore not your fault that your country was insufficiently vaccinated and so had to remain isolated and vulnerable?

    Asking for an enemy.

  12. Is this true?

    The_Pythia
    @TPythia
    ·
    55s

    Labor states will find supply tricky while loads of young people have been getting Pfizer in Liberal South Australia for weeks. Also Littleproud’s Nats electorate was vaccinating all comers with Pfizer since forever. #porkbarrellingvaccine, I guess.

  14. Vaccine causal link

    A helpful example might be the link between sunburn and ice cream. Sunburn may appear to occur after people eat ice cream. Eating ice cream doesn’t cause the sunburn; rather, ice cream is eaten more frequently by people out in the sun. So ice-cream eaters aren’t necessarily a genetically or physiologically ‘at risk’ group when it comes to sunburn, even if they get sunburn more frequently.

    So, compared to the AstraZeneca vaccine, the chance of blood clots is about 50 times greater for the pill, 2500 times greater for pregnancy, and 38,750 times greater from COVID-19 infection.

    Based on the UK percentages, if all Australians contracted COVID-19, 7.7 million of them would get COVID-related blood clots, and 750,000 would likely die from the disease (based on global averages). On the other hand, if every Australian got the vaccine, 200 would develop blood clots – less than the number of people who’ve already died in Australia from COVID-19 (909 people from 29,000 cases).

    With an average eight blood-clot cases per million in the UK, the risk of blood clots from the AstraZeneca vaccine is much lower than the risks of blood clot from an oral contraceptive pill (400 per million in Australia), pregnancy (2000 per million) or severe COVID-19 itself (about 31% of people admitted to the ICU, or 310,000 per million ).

    https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/medicine/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clots-statistics-percentage/

  15. guytaur @ #2181 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 4:48 pm

    @bengrubb tweets

    I asked my GP about AstraZeneca vaccine today and she gave me this and a five minute speech about how the PM should keep his nose out of medical advice. I must say I didn’t realise that my odds of clot were this. I thought it was 1 in a million, not 1 in 50,000.

    My doctor said she’s had to cancel all telehealth consultations because the phone doesn’t even work at the moment due to all available lines being taken up by people calling to try to book AstraZeneca appointments.

    Edit:
    Sorry photo link did not work

    A 50,000-1 chance of a clot vs risk of Covid infection and more lockdowns.

    It’s a no brainer.

  16. ACT position on giving AZ at vaccination hubs is in line with NSW – hubs are not the appropriate place for in-depth discussions on the risks for under 60s.

    Presumably all states and territories are taking a similar position?

  17. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 5:35 pm
    Is this true?

    The_Pythia
    @TPythia
    ·
    55s

    Labor states will find supply tricky while loads of young people have been getting Pfizer in Liberal South Australia for weeks. Also Littleproud’s Nats electorate was vaccinating all comers with Pfizer since forever. #porkbarrellingvaccine, I guess.
    __________________________________

    Given this government’s track record this is highly believable, except for one thing. There are far more complex logistics in accurately distributing Pfizer vaccines to your mates and their electors than there are in distributing money to them. Still, given that Gladys claimed today that they were not running short of Pfizer, there is a real possibility of that Pfizer vaccines were being distributed on a political basis.

  19. Player One @ #2211 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 5:32 pm

    Let’s just do a little thought experiment … if you were the leader of a nation, and you had completely failed to order enough vaccines for the population, which all evidence suggests is simply crying out to get vaccinated, largely because you had also screwed up the quarantine system and were now facing a new and deadly wave of the virus as a result … would you perhaps consider trying to generate some vaccine hesitancy so that you could then claim there were indeed enough vaccines to meet the demand and it was therefore not your fault that your country was insufficiently vaccinated and so had to remain isolated and vulnerable?

    Asking for an enemy.

    I’m taking him on face value that he just wants more people being vaccinated. It’s a transactional tactic.

  21. Barnaby is sure to have a mate somewhere near Armidale or Tamworth who is itching to sell some land to the Government for a nuclear power plant.

  22. TPOF

    I’m just trundling along behind the crowd, doing what I’m told, and hoping that everything will work out OK. Like many others in Morrison-world, I feel powerless at the moment.

  23. Sceptic @ #2168 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 4:31 pm

    there is no proof that this vaccine causes blood clots..

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/evidence-oxford-vaccine-blood-clots-data-causal-links

    As Ireland’s deputy chief medical officer, Ronan Glynn, has stressed, there is no proof that this vaccine causes blood clots. It’s a common human tendency to attribute a causal effect between different events..

    Call it luck, chance or fate – it’s difficult to incorporate this into our thinking. So when the European Medicines Agency says there have been 30 “thromboembolic events” after around 5m vaccinations, the crucial question to ask is: how many would be expected anyway, in the normal run of things?

    We can try a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation. Deep vein thromboses (DVTs) happen to around one person per 1,000 each year, and probably more in the older population being vaccinated. Working on the basis of these figures, out of 5 million people getting vaccinated, we would expect significantly more than 5,000 DVTs a year, or at least 100 every week. So it is not at all surprising that there have been 30 reports…..

    But I don’t think we can ever fully rationalise ourselves out of the basic and often creative urge to find patterns even where none exist. Perhaps we can just hope for some basic humility before claiming we know why something has happened.

    David Spiegelhalter is chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge

    I admit, I haven’t read the link, but I believe that the AZ vaccine doesn’t cause Deep Vein Thrombosis. So the comparison of numbers between DVT and the blood clot that kills from the AZ vaccine is like comparing apples with oranges, it seems to me.

  24. @drkerrynphelps tweets
    Age recommendation change announced by @ScottMorrisonMP without consulting the medical profession. Political decision to move AstraZeneca vaccine stocks while waiting for mRNA supplies to arrive. GPs blindsided, left to negotiate risk/ benefit with patients against ATAGI advice

  25. Rex Douglas @ #2212 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 5:39 pm

    guytaur @ #2181 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 4:48 pm

    @bengrubb tweets

    I asked my GP about AstraZeneca vaccine today and she gave me this and a five minute speech about how the PM should keep his nose out of medical advice. I must say I didn’t realise that my odds of clot were this. I thought it was 1 in a million, not 1 in 50,000.

    My doctor said she’s had to cancel all telehealth consultations because the phone doesn’t even work at the moment due to all available lines being taken up by people calling to try to book AstraZeneca appointments.

    Edit:
    Sorry photo link did not work

    A 50,000-1 chance of a clot vs risk of Covid infection and more lockdowns.

    It’s a no brainer.

    Less risk of Covid-19 and more risk of a blood clot if you are <50 in my neck of the woods.

  26. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 5:35 pm
    Is this true?

    The_Pythia
    @TPythia
    Labor states will find supply tricky while loads of young people have been getting Pfizer in Liberal South Australia for weeks. Also Littleproud’s Nats electorate was vaccinating all comers with Pfizer since forever. #porkbarrellingvaccine, I guess.

    I had assumed from the beginning that Pfizer would be distributed by Morrison on a political basis as every other grants/distribution program has been.

    Of course Morrison would prevent the figures becoming available but every jab of AZ and Pfizer would be recorded on a location basis and could be consolidated by electorate. Someone just has to locate the spreadsheet (in Hunt’s office?)

  29. Mick from GC @3:43

    “I’d actually encourage anyone and everyone to go out and get an AZ shot ASAP. If you procrastinate, and wait for Pfizer, believing it’s far superior, you run the risk of delaying further our recovery and path out of lock downs. Anyway……that’s my 2 cents on this matter.”

    Whilst the sensible thing to do is just to go out and get vaccinated now with whatever you can get, the rest of what you say does not follow.

    It is very likely that we will need a third booster shot before we can have quarantine free travel with the rest of the world. And those who have had the AZ shot will have to be first in line for the booster.

  30. citizen @ #2223 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 5:53 pm

    lizzie says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 5:35 pm
    Is this true?

    The_Pythia
    @TPythia
    Labor states will find supply tricky while loads of young people have been getting Pfizer in Liberal South Australia for weeks. Also Littleproud’s Nats electorate was vaccinating all comers with Pfizer since forever. #porkbarrellingvaccine, I guess.

    I had assumed from the beginning that Pfizer would be distributed by Morrison on a political basis as every other grants/distribution program has been.

    Of course Morrison would prevent the figures becoming available but every jab of AZ and Pfizer would be recorded on a location basis and could be consolidated by electorate. Someone just has to locate the spreadsheet (in Hunt’s office?)

    Can Senate Estimates call for the information?

  31. guytaur,

    @GreenJ tweets
    i think if someone ran in the next election on a platform of sober, efficient, painfully honest competence they’d clean up.
    someone truly dull but effective.

    or a deer. at this point i’d vote for a deer.

    And that is why people like Jonathan Green give me the shits.

    Any Australian should be able to see that the Morrison government no longer feels it is accountable to anyone, except perhaps Rupert, Neinfax and Channel 7, least of all Australian voters. It is an 8-year-old government that is only going to get worse as the time-servers get a go.

    Rupert Murdoch started this editorial line in the lat 1970’s. Politicians and political parties are all corrupt and bad. There are all the same.

    So, people stop being interested in politics, not caring who wins: “no matter who you vote for, the Government always get in” etc.

    But, the nasty little secret is that those who benefit from conservative governments, who always privatise the profits and socialise the losses, quietly go out and vote conservative (Coalition in Australia).

  32. The newsltd hacks and lib/nats propaganda media units are being caught out playing politics by defending Morrison and showing how Narcissistic they are

    They claim to go to see a doctor to get advice do not listen to the premiers or their chief medical officers , and in the next statement they claim Scott Morrison is correct

    And they cannot see how that is not playing politics and wrong

    Morrison lied about the premiers/chief medical officers , also Scott Morrison is not a medical doctor

  33. It is very likely that we will need a third booster shot before we can have quarantine free travel with the rest of the world. And those who have had the AZ shot will have to be first in line for the booster.

    So, why not combine the best of all worlds wrt the AZ vaccine, for those for whom it is eminently safe to get it, and give them boosters at 4 weeks and 8 weeks? 3 shots should theoretically boost the immunity cf 2 shots of AZ? Seeing as how we can produce a surfeit of AZ.

  35. And that is why people like Jonathan Green give me the shits.

    Ditto. The guy is just so insufferably smug. One of those, I’m more cluey than the rest of you, insiders.

  36. C@t

    In practice, a lot of people are going to get their first AZ shot in the next couple of months and then get Pfizer for their second shot. For several reasons. One of which will be the shorter dosing interval for Pfizer.

    My problem is that we’re still in denial about the relative weakness of AZ and the sick Hunt still hasn’t breathed a word about the need for a booster and its probably time the government made a booster part of the plan. Its also time the media caught on.

  37. Btw, despite the limited mixed vaccine trials, I’ve still not seen any hard numbers on where you stand with a 1st dose of AZ and a second dose of Pfizer – compared to 2 doses of Pfizer. Again, lots of weasel words are being used.

  40. My sibling saw her GP today. They discussed the covid vaccine. He basically said that the govt has been telling lots of lies and his GP cohort have had a gutful of it.

    When you lose the GP cohort………

  41. Sceptic

    The thing about commuter carparks is that they’re politically popular, but often a waste of money. In most places all a commuter carpark does is it allows someone who would have formerly used a bus to get to the train station to instead use a car. The car parking spaces that represent new users (of the train) are in a minority.

    There are of course exceptions. Train stations that happen to be somewhere where land is cheap and you can build a big parking station relatively cost effectively. Holsworthy station for instance. There’s probably a few stations on the Central Coast line. But not Woy Woy, where building new parking stations is expensive.

  44. D & M

    GreenJ was making a joke to make exactly that same point. Thus the deer reference.

    You may think it’s smug but it’s not an attempt to say don’t hold the government accountable.

  46. Cud Chewer @ #2238 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 6:02 pm

    C@t

    In practice, a lot of people are going to get their first AZ shot in the next couple of months and then get Pfizer for their second shot. For several reasons. One of which will be the shorter dosing interval for Pfizer.

    My problem is that we’re still in denial about the relative weakness of AZ and the sick Hunt still hasn’t breathed a word about the need for a booster and its probably time the government made a booster part of the plan. Its also time the media caught on.

    I’d need it explained to me why 2 shots of differing type vaccine is better than 2 shots of same type vaccine.

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