Month of May miscellany

A number of Queensland preselections fall into place as both parties jack up preparations for a federal election that may be held as soon as October.

In addition to Saturday’s Upper Hunter by-election in New South Wales, the results and aftermath of which you can discuss here, I have the following electoral news to relate, much of it involving federal preselections in Queensland:

• James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “Liberal MPs believe an early election is increasingly likely after Josh Frydenberg’s well-received third federal budget”, although “much will depend on Australia’s COVID-19 vaccination rollout”. An early election may still mean next year rather than this: according to an unnamed Liberal MP quoted in the report, “the thinking was it would be May 2022, now it’s February-March or maybe even October-November”.

• The Liberal National Party’s candidate for the Brisbane seat of Lilley is Ryan Shaw, an army veteran who served in East Timor and Afghanistan, and the unsuccessful LNP candidate for the corresponding seat of Nudgee at last year’s state election. The Prime Minister visited the seat with Shaw in two last week to promote the government’s HomeBuilder program. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reported the seat was one of two in Queensland that the LNP was “making a play for” – notwithstanding that “the Coalition is acutely aware that the huge swing towards it in Queensland at the last election could easily go the other way next time … without the red hot issue of the Adani coal mine, the Bob Brown convoy and an unpopular leader in Bill Shorten”.

• The second of the two Queensland seats the Coalition hopes to add to its pile is Blair, which Shayne Neumann has held for Labor since 2007. This is one of two seats which have been the subject of speculation surrounding former state Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington, whose state seat of Nanango largely corresponds with it. The other is the rather more attractive prospect of Flynn, which will be vacated with the retirement of LNP incumbent Ken O’Dowd. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Frecklington has “denied she had considered running for Flynn, but has not responded to questions about a possible preselection bid in Blair”. Another nominee for the LNP’s Flynn preselection is Colin Boyce, who has held the state seat of Callide since 2017. Labor announced last week that its candidate for the seat would be Gladstone mayor Matt Burnett.

• In Capricornia, another theoretically winnable seat for Labor in regional Queensland that inflicted a blowout swing on the party in 2019, Labor has endorsed Russell Robertson, who works at the Goonyella coal mine.

• Labor in Tasmania will conduct a ballot of party members as part of its process to choose a successor to Rebecca White, who resigned as leader after last month’s election defeat. The contestants for the position are David O’Byrne, a figure of considerable influence in the Left faction, and Shane Broad, whose profile is rather a bit lower. The membership vote will constitute 50% of the total, with the other half consisting of a ballot of the party’s state conference. I believe this will be the third such party membership vote for a parliamentary leader in Australia, after the contest between Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese after the 2013 federal election, and that between Jodi McKay and Chris Minns after the 2019 state election in New South Wales (readers may correct me in comments if I’ve missed something).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,206 comments on “Month of May miscellany”

Comments Page 22 of 25
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  5. Thank dog for Senate hearings.
    Govt is so secretive QT is a waste.
    Virtually no MSM investigative reporting.
    Except for the half dozen or so journos trying their best we would be in tha dark if not for those hearings

  6. Zerlo @ #1031 Tuesday, May 25th, 2021 – 5:51 pm

    deliberately misquoting for your anti-china rants.

    Don’t worry, Zerlo. If you think about it carefully, boerwar coming here day after day and posting links to Chinese propaganda is achieving a level of publicity that China themselves could only dream of.

    Of course, he probably counts on the fact that no-one actually bothers to click on the links … but he probably doesn’t realize that even by just posting them he is lifting them in various search engine algorithms.

  7. “mundosays:
    Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 5:37 pm
    Another on eof those quiz show moments which demonstrates just how clueless the average punter is.
    Q; In 1949, which Prime minister described the Labor party as ‘the light on the hill’? a/ Gough whitlam b/ Robert Menzies c/ Ben Chifley
    A: (from 40-something year old) Robert Menzies.

    Sheesh.
    ”
    Sheesh indeed. Can you see how little people are interested in politics?
    Also, we get that kind of answers when one person and one party is in power for along time especially after WW2. No wonder they have the arrogance to think that they are natural party of OZ.

  8. Lizzie,

    “My” possums don’t live in the roof. They live in the trees around, cross the garden by means of power line, and thump down on to the roof at regular intervals every night. That wakes the poodle, who hollers “intruders”, and that wakes me. The cavalier, bless him, snores peacefully on the pillow next to my head.

    In the Blue Mountains when my kids were small we had a home among the gumtrees. (Note, I no longer think this is a good idea.)

    The top branches of a gum leaned over our deck, and we had a possum visit every night.

    Our next door neighbour christened the possum “Harvey” (as in Harvey Wall-banger), but Harvey then turned up with a baby.

    After dinner, Harvey and baby would come out of the gum tree to our kitchen window, and make a noise like a 1960s Italian espresso machine. Me, and 5 and 7 year-old would get a banana and go out and feed it to Harvey 9who had baby on her back).

    It was a priceless experience, and the kids have great memories.

  10. Re the discussions on the Indue card.
    I have said before I think expanding it would be a political death warrant for the Libs.
    Too many people affected and families and friends vote. People would rapidly learn how restrictive the card is.
    Also where is the money for the private administration fees etc etc etc going to come from. $$$$$

  11. Zerlo,

    The CCP you so adore are a pack of murdering fascists focussed on world domination. They actively work against Australia and our well being.

    Australia says. “Up you!”

    Get used to being an international pariah.

  13. Itza,

    The painting is beautiful Hope you can get it.

    There are two pieces of art (quite cheap) that I really wish I had bought when I had the chance.

    One was a painting in our local pub / art gallery. It was of a man sleeping in a tousled bed, with the sunlight streaming in (you get the impression it was close to midday). Curled up next to the man was a beautiful kelpie. The painting beamed “this is my lazy but beautiful OH with the dog. I am painting peacefully while they sleep”.

    I was so busy with work at the time that I did not even write down the name of the artist!

  15. “C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 5:40 pm
    Michael Tanner
    @MichaelTanner_
    ·
    22m
    Eight articles on the Upper Hunter by-election, six mentions of Labor’s fall in primary vote to 20%, zero mentions of the National’s fall to 30% (from 60% in 2007). Incredible.

    It seems rumours of Jodi’s demise were greatly exaggerated.
    ”

    The so-called MSM thought that by running articles like Jodi is finished will make her resign. But she waited for 48 hrs to see if anyone will make a move. IMO, dirt file is a result of that.
    If a leader has to resign because of one by-election loss, Turnbull should have resigned after wipe out of Super Saturday by-election.

  16. ‘poroti says:
    Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 5:35 pm

    boerwar

    This sort of militaristic and nationalistic shit goes on and on and on.
    Clearly, the Chinese population is being groomed for war:

    Thank fuck we in the West aren’t also being groomed for war or it will end very badly………………………..oh wait’
    ——————————————————————–
    The whataboutism is not even remotely equivalent.

    The Global Times alone averages a savage blustering militaristic and nationalistic diatribe a day.
    It is important for westerners to realize that the Chinese population is being very, very actively groomed for war on a daily basis.

  17. Australian voters are never sympathetic about politicians. That’s why they never remember.

    Australian politics is always about the now, not the past.

    It’s always a version of “What have you done for me lately”.

    This is why Scotty doing a victory lap for Covid may not work out.

  20. boerwar

    A bit hard to bitch about something when we are also doing it. Claims of “whataboutery’ is a cop out. Nothing stops “us’ taking firm action without all the think tankers and pollies talking up the liklihood, or even inevitability, of war with China and general rah rah rah.

  22. ‘poroti says:
    Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 6:41 pm

    boerwar

    A bit hard to bitch about something when we are also doing it’
    —————————————————–
    My view, FWIW, is that you are doing false equivalence.

    When it comes to militarism and nationalism, the quantitative and qualitative difference in China’s MSM compared with our MSM is brutal. I assume that you have not been tracking China’s MSM otherwise you would not be peddling your ‘whatabouts’.

  23. On China see one of Australia’s experts one Mr Kevin Rudd.

    https://projectofive.ca/2020/06/25/a-new-era-for-chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomacy/

    So yes Australia will be part of the Quad and that means BW is closer to the truth than Zerlo.

    The trick is to understand the Quad is about the China problem. It’s not about containment. It’s not about being an Asian NATO as China has asserted.

    Edit: Remember the US bases in Okinawa Japan the US ally are very near Taiwan. That alliance has existed since for decades.

  25. Player One
    I just watched a piece on the kerfuffle in the UK re a free trade agreement with Australia. When it came to farming our crap record of CO2 emissions was front and centre . Farming could be first cab off the rank when it comes to us paying for our CO2 sins.

  28. poroti @ #1075 Tuesday, May 25th, 2021 – 6:46 pm

    Player One
    I just watched a piece on the kerfuffle in the UK re a free trade agreement with Australia. When it came to farming our crap record of CO2 emissions was front and centre . Farming could be first cab off the rank when it comes to us paying for our CO2 sins.

    I am surprised this would even be allowed to be reported in Australia.

    Where are border controls when you need them? 🙁

  30. Dandy Murray @ #1027 Tuesday, May 25th, 2021 – 5:48 pm

    It’s the marginal players and risk seekers that will reap their rewards. E.g. if you had a big battery or PHES in Qld atm, you would be absolutely cashing in.

    Maybe, but that ignores the actual problem. If you need more energy than can be generated due to a major generator blowing up, throwing buckets of money at your other generators, to keep them doing exactly what they would have been doing anyways, won’t solve anything.

    A market-style approach doesn’t suit this particular situation. There’s a real, measurable cost for generating 1 kWh of power. The pricing should reflect that cost, not the fact that there suddenly aren’t enough kWh to go around. If scarcity’s at a level where small reducions in usage would cover the gap, then sure, use a price signal for that. But if it’s at a level where no reasonable amount of conservation is going to make any difference, the gouging serves no (useful) purpose.

  33. Douglas and Milko @ #1063 Tuesday, May 25th, 2021 – 6:30 pm

    Itza,

    The painting is beautiful Hope you can get it.

    There are two pieces of art (quite cheap) that I really wish I had bought when I had the chance.

    One was a painting in our local pub / art gallery. It was of a man sleeping in a tousled bed, with the sunlight streaming in (you get the impression it was close to midday). Curled up next to the man was a beautiful kelpie. The painting beamed “this is my lazy but beautiful OH with the dog. I am painting peacefully while they sleep”.

    I was so busy with work at the time that I did not even write down the name of the artist!

    Nearly teared me up there D&M. Such a beautiful vision. (I know a fair bit about in tousled beds and Kelpies.) The thing is, when something like that grabs you, you have to grab it, don’t you, if you can. Not big bucks, not big names, that’s all too calculated, and inaccessible, not too mention unaffordable. If there’s no serendipity, much is missing.

    As for the MCG painting, gosh, I’m not bidding. I ran the post because I was looking at the auction site, and thought it was interesting, lovely – cricket, MCG etc. – and a bit of a change. I’m half following the auction online, and the prices are insane. It’s another world, far away, but I like to watch (as they say).

  36. Lizzie,
    I share you fury regarding the imposition of the Indue card on aged pensioners….despite being a self-funded retiree at the moment, who knows if/when I might need it.
    This indignity should be denounced, and to see all on the age pension tarred with the RSL /Pokie brush is utterly insulting!!

  37. On the subject of dogs, I spotted a new gift shop today. It had the usual cards, mugs, t-shirts and the like. However every item seemed to relate to dogs – not items for dogs but for their owners.

  39. BW,

    The implication from the accused is she liked it so rough that this behaviour is acceptable.

    I’d convict him on that defence alone.

  40. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 7:04 pm

    BW,

    The implication from the accused is she liked it so rough that this behaviour is acceptable.

    I’d convict him on that defence alone.’
    ——————————–
    It is awful.

  41. Maybe, but that ignores the actual problem. If you need more energy than can be generated due to a major generator blowing up, throwing buckets of money at your other generators, to keep them doing exactly what they would have been doing anyways, won’t solve anything.

    Surely it drives up futures and contract prices, which is what investment decisions are based on? Scarcity price works to incentivise new investment. Marginal pricing only covers operating (mainly fuel) costs.

    Also, those customers that are using power but don’t need to have a clear signal to reduce their loads. or example, if I’m being load-shed, then I would hope the customers, or their retailers, that are being supplied with power would be paying at least my marginal value for energy. That might not be $15MW, but the logic should hold, particularly for large energy users.

    Power generation is the most capital intensive of industries, and we need some way of signalling the need for investment. Currently, in this country, we have markets that can bounce between marginal and scarcity pricing, with a market cap to limit the excesses of the later. This is working pretty well, all things considered (including deliberate malfeasance by one political party).

    For example, 20% of Qld generation capacity went offline this afternoon and we (i) avoided a cascading failure and state or system blackout event, (ii) the vast bulk of customers have already had their supply re-established, and (iii) no workers were injured at the generator plant site. That’s a win, in most people’s books.

  42. I look forward to a Bludger being able to explain why Drs Physics and Chemistry should ignore Chinese, US and Indian CO2 emissions so that the rest of us can all stay under the critical 1.5 degrees global increase in temperature.

  43. poroti,

    You start off talking about manufacturing and then you segue into something else unrelated.

    Whatever the drugs you are on are working.

  44. I also look forward to a Bludger explaining why it is good and fit and proper that a thriving democracy in Taiwan should be allowed to be destroyed through war by a megalomaniacal despot.

  47. “boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 7:08 pm
    I look forward to a Bludger being able to explain why Drs Physics and Chemistry should ignore Chinese, US and Indian CO2 emissions so that the rest of us can all stay under the critical 1.5 degrees global increase in temperature.
    ”
    I don’t know whether you noticed my post yesterday where only India is the only major country on target to meet it’s obligations to keep 2.0℃ global increase in temperature.

  48. boerwar
    And it is being ‘allowed’ ? Really ? You sound like anything less than Defcon 1 being declared would not please re “Us” v ‘Chicoms’.

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