Month of May miscellany

A number of Queensland preselections fall into place as both parties jack up preparations for a federal election that may be held as soon as October.

In addition to Saturday’s Upper Hunter by-election in New South Wales, the results and aftermath of which you can discuss here, I have the following electoral news to relate, much of it involving federal preselections in Queensland:

James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “Liberal MPs believe an early election is increasingly likely after Josh Frydenberg’s well-received third federal budget”, although “much will depend on Australia’s COVID-19 vaccination rollout”. An early election may still mean next year rather than this: according to an unnamed Liberal MP quoted in the report, “the thinking was it would be May 2022, now it’s February-March or maybe even October-November”.

• The Liberal National Party’s candidate for the Brisbane seat of Lilley is Ryan Shaw, an army veteran who served in East Timor and Afghanistan, and the unsuccessful LNP candidate for the corresponding seat of Nudgee at last year’s state election. The Prime Minister visited the seat with Shaw in two last week to promote the government’s HomeBuilder program. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reported the seat was one of two in Queensland that the LNP was “making a play for” – notwithstanding that “the Coalition is acutely aware that the huge swing towards it in Queensland at the last election could easily go the other way next time … without the red hot issue of the Adani coal mine, the Bob Brown convoy and an unpopular leader in Bill Shorten”.

• The second of the two Queensland seats the Coalition hopes to add to its pile is Blair, which Shayne Neumann has held for Labor since 2007. This is one of two seats which have been the subject of speculation surrounding former state Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington, whose state seat of Nanango largely corresponds with it. The other is the rather more attractive prospect of Flynn, which will be vacated with the retirement of LNP incumbent Ken O’Dowd. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Frecklington has “denied she had considered running for Flynn, but has not responded to questions about a possible preselection bid in Blair”. Another nominee for the LNP’s Flynn preselection is Colin Boyce, who has held the state seat of Callide since 2017. Labor announced last week that its candidate for the seat would be Gladstone mayor Matt Burnett.

• In Capricornia, another theoretically winnable seat for Labor in regional Queensland that inflicted a blowout swing on the party in 2019, Labor has endorsed Russell Robertson, who works at the Goonyella coal mine.

• Labor in Tasmania will conduct a ballot of party members as part of its process to choose a successor to Rebecca White, who resigned as leader after last month’s election defeat. The contestants for the position are David O’Byrne, a figure of considerable influence in the Left faction, and Shane Broad, whose profile is rather a bit lower. The membership vote will constitute 50% of the total, with the other half consisting of a ballot of the party’s state conference. I believe this will be the third such party membership vote for a parliamentary leader in Australia, after the contest between Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese after the 2013 federal election, and that between Jodi McKay and Chris Minns after the 2019 state election in New South Wales (readers may correct me in comments if I’ve missed something).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,206 comments on “Month of May miscellany”

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  1. At least 15 die in lava flows after [Nyiragongo] volcano erupts in Democratic Republic of Congo

    More than 500 homes have been destroyed by the lava that has poured into villages, officials and survivors say

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/23/at-least-15-die-in-lava-flows-after-volcano-erupts-in-democratic-republic-of-congo

    Nyiragongo is infamous for its extremely fluid lava that runs as water when the lava lake drains. On January 17, 2002, Nyiragongo erupted and the lava lake drained from fissures on its western flanks. The city centre of the Goma town, the capital of the East Virunga province, had been destroyed by voluminous lava flows. 200,000 people were left homeless, adding to the human disaster caused by frequent civil wars.

    https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/nyiragongo.html

  2. DRC: Goma residents flee as Nyiragongo lava reaches city outskirts

    Volcano Mount Nyiragongo erupted during the night but lava flow seems to have lost intensity

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/23/goma-spared-as-lava-from-mount-nviragongo-volcano-stops-short-of-city

    Observers have been worried that the volcanic activity observed in the last five years at Nyiragongo mirrors that in the years preceding eruptions in 1977 and 2002.

    Volcanologists at the OVG, which monitors Nyiragongo, have struggled to make basic checks on a regular basis since the World Bank cut funding amid embezzlement allegations and there has been limited monitoring over the last seven months.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Alexandra Smith describes the field lining up for the next NSW Labor leader, even though Jodi McKay says she’s going nowhere.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-four-candidates-lining-up-for-labor-leadership-after-disastrous-byelection-20210523-p57uf6.html
    But David Clune says that now only a miracle can save Labor’s Jodi McKay.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/remarkable-victory-for-a-fractured-coalition-now-only-a-miracle-can-save-labor-s-jodi-mckay-20210523-p57ue9.html
    Rob Harris tells us that Labor’s environmental flank has broken ranks to lash the party’s pro-coal vision, arguing the weekend’s result in a NSW byelection is proof the opposition cannot win back government by trying to match the grandstanding of its conservative opponents.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-20-per-cent-vision-labor-s-environment-group-lashes-embrace-of-coal-20210523-p57uck.html
    Scott Morrison says the values of working-class voters are now more aligned with the Coalition than Labor as government strategists focus on ALP heartland seats ahead of the next federal election.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/scott-morrison-to-target-alps-true-believers/news-story/73354cb22fbc83a6669f01af9bd7bd2a
    Scott Morrison will be just as relieved as Gladys Berejiklian after Labor’s disastrous showing at the Upper Hunter byelection. The federal government believes it shows its messaging on jobs is working in key seats, says Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-coalition-peels-away-the-hi-vis-vote-from-labor-20210523-p57udz
    While Phil Coorey says the federal Coalition is eyeing off three seats in the Hunter Valley area – Hunter, Paterson and Shortland – following a poor result for Labor in the NSW byelection.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/upper-hunter-byelection-result-sends-fear-through-federal-labor-20210523-p57ucn
    And Harris and Jennifer Duke contend that billions of dollars in tax relief for high income earners is fuelling a fresh dispute within federal Labor, leading to conflicting positions and driving fears mishandling the debate could damage its election prospects.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tax-cuts-for-highest-income-earners-causing-labor-clash-20210523-p57uc3.html
    According to the AFR, potentially months out from a federal election, opposition MPs are saying the loss in the weekend’s state byelection should prompt soul-searching inside the party.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/labor-byelection-alarm-workers-aren-t-voting-for-us-why-20210523-p57uc0
    Sean Kelly tells us about Scott Morrison and the precarious politics of self-laid booby traps that have every chance of hurting himself should he win the next election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-and-the-precarious-politics-of-self-laid-booby-traps-20210523-p57ueo.html
    Ross Gittins explains why the government should ditch ‘stage 3’ tax cuts to repair the budget.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-the-government-should-ditch-stage-3-tax-cuts-to-repair-the-budget-20210523-p57uc5.html
    Despite overwhelmingly endorsing the general stance of the 2021 budget, only a few of the 56 leading economists surveyed by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation are prepared to give it top marks, writes Peter Martin.
    https://theconversation.com/great-approach-weak-execution-economists-decline-to-give-budget-top-marks-161347
    Noel Turnbull tells us how Scott Morrison’s churlishness is always on show when some Australian achieves great success in any area where Morrison’s perceived political enemies lurk.
    https://johnmenadue.com/morrison-churlishly-ignores-scientific-achievement/
    According to Latika Bourke, Australia’s COVID-19 travel ban is now stricter than Saudi Arabia’s.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-s-covid-19-travel-ban-is-now-stricter-than-saudi-arabia-s-20210518-p57sqr.html
    Greg Hunt has hinted that Australians aged over 50 are not guaranteed priority access to coronavirus vaccines if they opt against the AstraZeneca dose in favour of receiving the Pfizer or Moderna later in the year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/no-guarantees-over-50s-may-not-be-prioritised-for-pfizer-20210523-p57uav.html
    Anthony Albanese has endorsed suggestions the Coalition is deliberately letting vaccine hesitancy spread, suggesting a slow take-up suits Scott Morrison’s intention of keeping Australia’s borders closed, writes Tom McIlroy.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-fostering-vaccine-hesitancy-deliberately-albanese-20210523-p57uby
    An analysis published in the Medical Journal of Australia has found Australia’s lack of clear triage protocols more than a year into the Covid-19 pandemic means clinicians will struggle to decide which patients to save and how to treat them should the virus return, writes Melissa Davey.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/24/australias-lack-of-clear-triage-protocols-puts-lives-at-risk-if-another-covid-crisis-hits
    Lak Waterford writes, “Caroline Edwards, Associate secretary of the Commonwealth Health Department may have seemed churlish in refusing to accept that her department’s efforts in organising coronavirus vaccinations, essentially under her control, had been an abject failure.”
    https://johnmenadue.com/all-too-convenient-to-blame-the-health-bureaucrats/
    The pandemic’s devastation of the nation’s finances will be laid bare along with past policy mistakes in next month’s delayed intergenerational report, revealing huge levels of debt over the next 40 years, a less productive economy and a smaller, older population, explains Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/true-cost-of-pandemic-and-policy-failure-to-leave-finances-in-the-red-20210521-p57tyo.html
    Dave Donovan tells us about more evidence controversial lawyer Dominique Grubisa is promoting dodgy and inaccurate legal strategies to her business investment students.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/exclusive-no-safe-harbour-from-dominique-grubisa,15114
    Public servants are choosing to work from home in the tens of thousands as Commonwealth agencies permanently embrace remote working despite the easing of Covid social distancing rules, but, reports Doug Dingwall, not all agencies are embracing the concept.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7263635/aps-embraces-working-from-home-after-restrictions-lift-but-not-all-agencies-are-equal/?cs=14264
    Alan Kohler explains how the Deliveroo judgment could be one for the ages for workers’ rights.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/05/24/alan-kohler-deliveroo-judgment/
    If our government thinks the US will support Australia when it is not in US interests to do so just because we are mates, then it is very naïve, opines former diplomat Cavan Hogue.
    https://johnmenadue.com/is-the-us-a-reliable-ally/
    Nick O’Malley writes that a prominent public policy organisation has briefed a group of diplomats and foreign mission staff on what it says are misleading figures used by the federal government about the scale of Australian greenhouse gas emission reductions.
    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/foreign-diplomats-hear-critical-report-on-australian-climate-policy-20210523-p57uf5.html
    Despite official accounts showing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions are falling, its contribution to the climate crisis has increased over the past 15 years once areas beyond the federal government’s control – the drought and emissions from land and forests – are excluded, explains Adam Morton.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/24/scott-morrisons-claim-australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-falling-does-not-stack-up
    Kaye Lee asks, “Farming is an industry based on science so why do they elect Luddites?”
    https://theaimn.com/farming-is-an-industry-based-on-science-so-why-do-they-elect-luddites/
    Nigel Howard is concerned about the myopic thinking in Australia on electric vehicles and renewable power.
    https://johnmenadue.com/myopic-thinking-electric-vehicles-and-renewable-power/
    AGL Energy may have to raise more than half a billion dollars in equity, or even sell part of its retail business, to carry out its planned demerger as wholesale power prices fall through the floor, analysts have warned, explains Angela Macdonald-Smith.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/agl-may-need-to-raise-equity-as-demerger-doubts-mount-20210521-p57u2m
    A multinational company that secured a $121 million contract to support asylum seekers in PNG boosted its profits by billing the Australian government $75 an hour for local workers it paid just $8. The spivs are everywhere to take advantage of the Morrison government!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/big-profits-in-asylum-seeker-contracts-as-workers-say-they-felt-cheated-exploited-20210523-p57ucc.html
    Following the ceasefire after the latest Gaza carnage, media commentary included claims that life in that besieged, bombarded strip could return to normal. This insulting observation is one more verbal absurdity in cowardly refusals to speak truths about the colonisation of Palestinians and cruelty towards them, posits Stuart Rees.
    https://johnmenadue.com/stuart-rees-towards-peace-for-gaza-by-ending-deceit/
    The Texas abortion ban is a performance of misogyny, but it might get worse, writes Moira Donegan.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/23/the-texas-abortion-ban-is-a-performance-of-misogyny-but-it-might-get-worse
    In the “Who Gives a Shit” section we see that organisers of the Eurovision Song Contest say the lead singer of the Italian rock band that won had asked to take a drug test to counter speculation that he sniffed cocaine during the show.
    https://www.theage.com.au/culture/music/lead-singer-of-italian-band-to-take-drug-test-after-eurovision-controversy-20210524-p57uge.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Jim Pavlidis

    Peter Broelman

    John Shakespeare

    Matt Golding



    Glen Le Lievre has a gif
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1396252915161964546
    Mark Knight

    Johannes Leak

    From the US



  4. Jaeger @ #5 Monday, May 24th, 2021 – 6:46 am

    Mount Everest Covid outbreak has infected 100 people at base camp, says guide

    Austrian expedition leader Lukas Furtenbach says the real number could be 200, despite official Nepali denials

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/23/mount-everest-covid-outbreak-has-infected-100-people-at-base-camp-says-guide

    I wonder about the sanity of some people. Or is it just that they are avaricious and make too much money out of taking willing accomplices up Mount Everest? But honestly, why would you even consider going to Nepal at all, let alone Base Camp and beyond on Everest, when Covid is raging through the country!?!

  5. Thanks BK.

    Scott Morrison will be just as relieved as Gladys Berejiklian after Labor’s disastrous showing at the Upper Hunter byelection. The federal government believes it shows its messaging on jobs is working in key seats, says Jennifer Hewett.

    I love how a NSW parliament by election speaks to the fortunes of the federal government, yet the WA election was entirely about state issues and nothing for the feds to see here.

  6. I saw the whole of Fitzgibbon’s interview on ABC Breakfast.

    Now, I admit to a prejudice against him, but I have to admit that taking the conversation as a whole, he was pretty reasonable. He decried the low Labor numbers, but suggested there needs to be more clarity in Fed Labor messages on jobs.

    Morrison is now claiming that the LNP stands for “the workers”. I wonder how successful that will be.

    Edit: I think GG is the one to listen to over voters’ attitudes to jobs and environment.

  7. The national party primary vote was 31% yes 10% better than Labor’s , but that is also nothing to crow about for Morrison and his cronies

    When the liberal party will not put a candidate against a national party member

  8. I wonder about the sanity of some people. Or is it just that they are avaricious and make too much money out of taking willing accomplices up Mount Everest? But honestly, why would you even consider going to Nepal at all, let alone Base Camp and beyond on Everest, when Covid is raging through the country!?!

    Have bucket list, will kick it.

  9. It would be interesting if the electoral commission, did their job properly and stopped Liberal and National Parties from deliberately misleading voters that they are different entities.
    By forcing the Liberal party and national party to both have candidates in every seat they contested in

    It would be interesting to see ,what the liberal party particular primary vote would be in a 3 way contest

  10. Morrison claims he and his cronies are on the workers side

    This is what Morrison and his cronies done for the workers

    Cut penalty rates
    Freeze wages
    Allow wage theft
    Taken away health and safety from workers

    Wanting to bring in a harsher work choices

  11. lizzie @ #11 Monday, May 24th, 2021 – 7:48 am

    I saw the whole of Fitzgibbon’s interview on ABC Breakfast.

    Now, I admit to a prejudice against him, but I have to admit that taking the conversation as a whole, he was pretty reasonable. He decried the low Labor numbers, but suggested there needs to be more clarity in Fed Labor messages on jobs.

    Morrison is now claiming that the LNP stands for “the workers”. I wonder how successful that will be.

    Edit: I think GG is the one to listen to over voters’ attitudes to jobs and environment.

    ‘Morrison is now claiming that the LNP stands for “the workers”. I wonder how successful that will be.’
    Very.

  12. Jeez I wish Morrison would call the fukin election so we can get it over and done with. We know what’s going to happen. Just do it.

  13. Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy
    ·
    1m
    A clever punter would first consider that labor has never won that race and that the 8% vote lost went to the anti gas independent candidate therefore backing the gas industry Horse might not be the smartest thing to do on cup day.

  14. Joel being unhelpful again to Labor this morning backing the Libs agenda and undermining Albanese.

    The reality is that the fossil fuel unions are holding Labor back and keeping the Libs in Govt.

    Things won’t change for Labor until the policy power is shifted to the manufacturing, health, education and hospitality unions.

  15. Scott @ #15 Monday, May 24th, 2021 – 8:02 am

    Morrison claims he and his cronies are on the workers side

    This is what Morrison and his cronies done for the workers

    Cut penalty rates
    Freeze wages
    Allow wage theft
    Taken away health and safety from workers

    Wanting to bring in a harsher work choices

    Dynamic opposition leader Anthony ‘the slammer’ Albanese reminded voters this morning in a stunning rebuke to Scott Morrison.

  16. This is a comment I wrote for the Rob Harris article (which I didn’t see in the Dawn Patrol ?):

    ‘Climate Change is real. We need to face that fact as a nation and give our leaders permission at the ballot box to deal with it. Therefore the vote of the Coalition needs to go down. Not Labor’s. Labor are only doing what they are doing because the Coalition keeps winning elections with their pro fossil fuel stance and so Labor is following because they believe that that way lies the path to victory. When it doesn’t because why vote Labor when you could just vote for the Coalition and its obvious support for fossil fuels?

    Instead, what Labor needs to do is the hard work of cultivating a new voting base in the areas that swung TO them at the last federal election and there were plenty that did. They need to recognise there is no future in coal, devise a Just Transition policy and an acknowledgement that Australia needs to pull its weight globally in the fight against Global Heating and Climate Change. Then come clean with the electorate. I think they will be rewarded for it if they do.’

  17. This guy gets it (from the same article):
    Neil Barker
    25 MINUTES AGO
    Australia will become an even bigger backwater when it comes to inclusive and progressive politics if it tries to copy the conservatives on climate change. What will be next? More taxpayers funds to private companies who run essential services for distribution to foreign shareholders? Punishment of single mothers and the unemployed seeking work through robo calls? Cuts to Medicare, and the ABC? Or endorsement of massive tax cuts to high income earners. Progressive voters want choice. With turbo vilification of other parties with green credentials by the conservative media to ensure rejection from the public, moderate voters have nowhere to go.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-20-per-cent-vision-labor-s-environment-group-lashes-embrace-of-coal-20210523-p57uck.html#comments

    And no, The Greens are not the answer due to the fact they are obviously not a party of government and way too easily vilified by the media and the Coalition.

  18. I’ve had an idea for ScottyFromMarketing’s photoshoot today.

    Since he’s now claiming that the LNP is the party of the workers and not Labor, let’s see him cleaning out public toilets.

  19. The Woke amongst us should just Take Offence at how the Hunter voters have deserted Australia.

    There’s no answer to Being Offended. You can’t question it. You can’t argue against it. You can’t try to talk some sense into it. You just have to accept it, agree with it and vote for it. No-one dares second-guess it.

    Taking Offence turns any defeat into a victory.

    If you lose an election because you’re pissing off more and more people by being offended at everything they say, think or do, then whose fault is that?

    Theirs, of course!

    It’s perfectly straightforward. I don’t know why the State Labor leadership hasn’t thought of it before.

    Just Be Offended. Take an absolute position. Condemn a few people because they don’t agree with you. Accuse someone of rape, pedophilia, homophobia or – everybody’s go-to conversation stopper – racism. Join a protest march (take public transport, naturally). That’ll get the CFMMEU on side. And if it doesn’t? Who needs ’em?

    If nothing else you can have the smug satisfaction of knowing you were right and the rest of the world is not only wrong, but going to Hell for it.

    And if anyone has any concerns about any of the above, contact 1-800-RESPECT.

  20. Malcolm Turnbull should maybe work WITH Labor and against the Coalition, not AGAINST it and the Coalition.

  21. I find it very disturbing that almost every ABC program ends with a reference to a mental health number. I haven’t yet worked out what they are afraid of.

  22. lizzie

    almost every ABC program ends with a reference to a mental health number.

    Perhaps it is a recognition of how awful ABC programs are ‘these days’ 😉

  23. [‘Federal MP Joel Fitzgibbon threatens to quit Labor.

    Labor backbencher Joel Fitzgibbon has threatened to leave his party unless it overhauls its approach federally in the wake of its disastrous performance at a NSW state by-election in the same region as his seat of Hunter.

    “I won’t hang around if the Labor Party doesn’t wake up to itself,” Mr Fitzgibbon said. However the federal MP says he plans to run for Labor at the next federal election, which is expected as soon as this year.

    Federal Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon has threatened to leave his party if it doesn’t move to the right on certain issues.

    Just one in five voters put Labor first at the Upper Hunter by-election on Saturday, though a large number of independents and minor parties also appeared to split the vote. Mr Fitzgibbon wants the party to steer to the right on environmental and social issues, saying it will help Labor regain its traditional blue collar supporters.’] – SMH

    Good riddance, I say. If he stood as an independent and won off Labor preferences, he’d mostly back a Labor Government. At the moment his presence is a thorn in the side of Labor’s attempt to make its case for a renewables future, an inevitability particularly now that the US is committed to it under Biden.

  24. The natural progression…

    And said with a straight face considering the profligacy of the Trump era.

    The Republican Party’s metamorphosis starkly showed this week in the faceoff between a parade float championing Donald Trump and “Mr. Perks,” an 18-foot pink pig on wheels emblazoned with the words “End Washington Waste.”

    Americans for Prosperity, a free-market group that helped propel the tea party uprising in 2009, drove in the pig to make a point at a conservative rally about federal earmark spending. The Trump rig, equipped with a sound system and pulled by an old ambulance, posed a threat.

    “This event is not about Trump,” said Annie Patnaude, the Michigan director for AFP, explaining why the Trump display had to move away from the live band and full buffet tables she had set up. “This is about pork.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-struggle-to-define-a-new-governing-coalition-as-trump-closes-grip-on-party/2021/05/23/07bce926-b98a-11eb-96b9-e949d5397de9_story.html

  25. Jane Caro (who has a property there)
    @JaneCaro
    ·
    1m
    Much of the electorate is farming focussed – if not most of it – neither major party offered them anything.

  26. “Confessionssays:
    Monday, May 24, 2021 at 7:42 am
    Thanks BK.

    Scott Morrison will be just as relieved as Gladys Berejiklian after Labor’s disastrous showing at the Upper Hunter byelection. The federal government believes it shows its messaging on jobs is working in key seats, says Jennifer Hewett.

    I love how a NSW parliament by election speaks to the fortunes of the federal government, yet the WA election was entirely about state issues and nothing for the feds to see here.”

    Interesting isn’t it? When they have to put boot into Labor they don’t give a second thought to what they said earlier. These so called ‘Opinion makers’ they are full of themselves.

  27. RN framing the Hunter result as ‘a miracle’ – apparently because that’s what the Nationals said it was.

    Also a lot of idiocy about by elections (William, some research??).

    My understanding is that by elections are often not contested, because the result is NOT a swing away from the incumbent but an almost hundred per cent certainty that whichever party held it will retain it.

    So the handful of by elections which are contested are when – for whatever reason – there is at least a slim chance of an over turn.

    The media, however, are running the line that ALL by elections swing against the incumbent government. Therefore there should have been a swing against the Nationals, therefore it’s a miracle win.

  28. Oh, and Joel can go away. According to himself, he’s beloved by the electorate, so he shouldn’t have any problems.

    **Disclaimer: he stuffed up something I was organising, so I’ve got a grudge.

    *** He can still go away.

  29. For whom the bell tolls … coal is dead and australia inches closer to pariah status

    “On Friday, the influential G7 group of nations hammered another nail into coal’s coffin by announcing they would stop international financing of coal projects in a bid to tackle climate change and limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/05/23/coal-g7-australia-climate/

  30. “Scott Morrison says the values of working-class voters are now more aligned with the Coalition than Labor as government strategists focus on ALP heartland seats ahead of the next federal election.”

    Does it mean what it means in US, where non-college educated people vote for Republicans?

  31. RN framing the Hunter result as ‘a miracle’ – apparently because that’s what the Nationals said it was.

    Thoughtful people aren’t buying what Joel or The Nationals for that matter, are selling:

    I wunder Y:

    The Labor party needs to be completely honest with their supporters because their attempt to be ‘just like them’ is not working.
    This attempt to straddle a pro-fossil fuel industry agenda and yet want voters who see the planet’s health as being critical to the future cannot be reconciled in reality.
    You either endorse the science to reduce Greenhouse emissions or just prolong the anti-science rhetoric of the LNP.

    NSW Labor chose a candidate who was a past union official, a coal miner who was never going to articulate how the upper Hunter residences would be able to transition away from coal.

    The soul searching by Labor about the Upper Hunter by-election should note the Independents’ stance of no new mines policy their 1st preference votes is significant.

    John Barilaro can spin all he likes but approximately 67 % of voters did not want a National party win.

    A fossil fuel extracted and burned will increase CO2 and Methane emissions, and policies to reduce our dependence on energy and export dollars from digging up coal and gas need to be developed and be taken seriously.

  32. Ven @ #39 Monday, May 24th, 2021 – 8:57 am

    “Scott Morrison says the values of working-class voters are now more aligned with the Coalition than Labor as government strategists focus on ALP heartland seats ahead of the next federal election.”

    Does it mean what it means in US, where non-college educated people vote for Republicans?

    Yep. Non-University educated, greedy bigots.

  33. For all Morrison’s bragging, the Nationals only polled 31.4 per cent of the primary vote, despite holding the state seat for 90 years.

  34. Bold assumption that ALP would not lose equivalent % vote in any other bi-elections in NSW.

    Interesting to see if the Premier pulls the trigger on Whitey Jackson in Kiama and what the consequences are.

  35. BK @ #7 Monday, May 24th, 2021 – 7:09 am

    Rob Harris tells us that Labor’s environmental flank has broken ranks to lash the party’s pro-coal vision, arguing the weekend’s result in a NSW byelection is proof the opposition cannot win back government by trying to match the grandstanding of its conservative opponents.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-20-per-cent-vision-labor-s-environment-group-lashes-embrace-of-coal-20210523-p57uck.html

    I was going to post exactly these sentiments. I am glad to see some Labor people are finally coming to their senses:

    Felicity Wade, the national convenor of the Labor Environmental Action Network, said the result had produced the “empirical evidence” of how an exclusively “pro-coal and anti-climate action” vision for the future of the party had worked in the electorate.

    “It’s the 20 per cent vision, and that’s in the heart of coal country. You can’t win elections on 20 per cent,” she said.

    “State Labor turned its back on party policy and ran a pro-coal agenda that attacked those who care about climate action and our vote dropped by a third. What’s more the vote for those supporting transition increased from around 5 per cent in the last two elections to 15 per cent, with few preferences coming back to Labor.

    “We lost primary vote and preferences to our ‘left’. While trying to match the populist dog whistling of the conservatives and One Nation, delivered no dividend either.”

    Labor was foolish to chase votes in a State seat they were never going to win, using a policy that will lose them votes in winnable seats at the next Federal election. As you would expect, others in Labor downplays the significance of the result:

    “I wouldn’t be rushing to jump to conclusions about this having big implications federally, I mean it was a state byelection,” he said.

    I would. Labor makes the same mistake time and again.

  36. Morning All,

    Gathering together a few days worth of cartoons. So sad to hear about Kay Jay, always great with a picture and brightening up the mood. All the best to you

  37. Found this. The Morrison steam roller is almost unstoppable.

    Pentecostal WA liberal parachuted into casual Senate vacancy when Cormann retired, previously ran Twiggy Forrest’s Mindaroo Foundation for 10 years.
    Twiggy got his man on the inside.
    Morrison got another religious zealot
    Cormann got open chequebook OECD campaign
    Smells!
    #auspol twitter.com/crikey_news/st…

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