Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 46, Labor 47, undecided 7

A big gender gap on an otherwise finely balanced result on voting intention from Essential Research, plus Newspoll follow-ups on leaders’ attributes and COVID-19.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has unloaded its latest quarterly-or-so dump of voting intention results, which should presumably appear in full later today. According to the pollster’s headline “2PP+” measure, which leaves a hole marked “undecided” in its two-party preferred, the Coalition and Labor are both on 46% while undecided is at 7% (presumably the failure to sum to 100 is down to rounding). We are also told that the Coalition is on 39% of the primary vote with Labor on 34%, but this too would be from a set of numbers including an undecided component of around 7%.

There is also a particularly wide gender gap in the latest results, though I’m not clear if they are basing this entirely on the latest poll result or from a quarterly accumulation like the ones familiar from Newspoll. The Coalition trails Labor by 37% to 31% on the primary vote among women, which converts to 50% to 38% on 2PP+, whereas the January result had the Coalition leading 37% to 33% on the former measure and 47% to 44% on the latter. Conversely, the Coalition leads Labor among men by 47% to 31% on primary and 55-42 on 2PP+.

This was all in addition to the usual fortnightly release from Essential Research, which offered yet more data on COVID-19. Forty-three per cent now think the vaccine rollout is being done efficiently, down from 68% in late February, while 63% think it is being done safely, down from 73%, and 52% think it will be effective at stopping the virus in the country, down from 64%. Forty-five per cent rate felt the rollout was proceeding more slowly than they would like, which is in fact a seven-point improvement on a fortnight ago: among this group, 48% felt the federal government most responsible, up six points.

There have also been two further tranches of results from Newspoll’s weekend poll, one of which related that the Morrison government’s handling of COVID-19 was rated positively by 70% (down from 82% in June) and negatively by 27% (up from 15%), and that 53% were satisfied with the vaccine rollout compared with 43% who were unsatisfied. The other set of results related perceptions of the two party leaders according to nine character traits. Compared with the last such results in August, Scott Morrison was held in slightly lower regard overall, the biggest movement being a ten point drop on “understands the major issues”. Anthony Albanese’s ratings were stable – the only one on which he scored better than Morrison was “arrogant”, a quality attributed to Morrison by 52% and to Albanese by 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,180 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 46, Labor 47, undecided 7”

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  1. I have no doubt that the current Australian Government intends to extend the Indue Card to the unemployed and probably also to disability pensioners, but not the aged pensioners and certainly not veterans.

  2. The Twitter user in question also posts stupid shit like this:

    MsRebeccaRobins
    @MsRebeccaRobins
    ·
    6h
    #auspol Josh Frydenberg has just set my feelings towards the Jewish religion back to the gutter. You would think Jews would understand but then just look at Palastine, Maybe Adolfus Hittlemous was right after all ?
    ________________

    Lizzie.Lizzie.Lizzie. you are better than that.

  3. kudos to steve777 11 hours of sustained partisan posting – ranging from vaccine propaganda at 753am to “mediscare” innuendo at 653pm.

  4. The government has support from Labor over the Indian ban because of the highly virulent and contagious nature of this strain, the apparent lack of the Indian government to take reasonable steps to mitigate the spread in India and the large number of positive cases turning up in Australia.

    Sure the steps are harsh but the risk of this strain getting loose in Australia at the start of our winter season is pretty worrying.

  5. ‘Steve777 says:
    Sunday, May 2, 2021 at 6:53 pm

    I have no doubt that the current Australian Government intends to extend the Indue Card to the unemployed and probably also to disability pensioners, but not the aged pensioners and certainly not veterans.’

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.THEY.CORRUPT.

  6. Lars – I have received Kudos twice from you in one day. I must be doing well.

    I have to confess, however, I have been away doing other stuff most of the day – visited here briefly during lunch and have come back again this evening.

  7. Taylormade

    I wouldn’t dream of posting anything to do with Hitler. I don’t even read anything that mentions him.

  8. davidwh

    I am not disagreeing with what you are saying but

    If Morrison was on the competence side, there should have never been the loophole for people to use from India in the first place.

  9. There is no doubt , if someone from corrupt newsltd,other lib/nats propaganda media propaganda , Lib/nats donors , rich business mates, family , etc stuck in India

    They would likely get special treatment and it will be swept under the carpet

  10. ‘Senator Lidia Thorpe
    @lidia__thorpe
    · 9h
    For the record. I will not support a Referendum to assimilate us into the Colonial constitution. #TreatyFirst’

    Surely this shows disrespect for her people’s nominated representatives and the Uluru convention?

  11. The Indue card is unlikely to be successful because it is already possible to manage someones money along similar lines to the card and it has been found to not work so is only used in extreme cases like severe gambling additions. The idea is possibly useful but only where the person can be shown to be unable to manage their own money and that should be the extent of it.

  12. Forget about Rebecca Robbins and her tweets about a certain 20th century national leader.

    I have long believed that the Coalition intend to extend Indue to the unemployed because, pretty much since the first time I heard of it. It is very much in keeping with their attitude to the unemployed, a workhouse mentality. The Indue Card is a 21st century equivalent to a workhouse. The idea is to make the experience of being unemployed so stressful and demeaning that people would rather work in the outback for starvation wages, subject to wage theft, than claim benefits. At the same time they can shovel shitloads of money to donor mates.

    I also believe that the Coalition intend to eventually abolish Medicare.

  13. ‘zoomster says:
    Sunday, May 2, 2021 at 7:09 pm

    ‘Senator Lidia Thorpe
    @lidia__thorpe
    · 9h
    For the record. I will not support a Referendum to assimilate us into the Colonial constitution. #TreatyFirst’

    Surely this shows disrespect for her people’s nominated representatives and the Uluru convention?’

    Moot. Where is the Indigenous Voice?

  14. zoomster

    She has held a contrary view ever since the Uluru Statement. I thought then that it would cause trouble and was disappointed to see it again today.

  15. Is the “Quiet Australian” an LNP loving “woke hating” working class person who wants their working conditions and rights eroded at the expense of their bosses back pocket?

  16. If the Lib/nats claim the indue card works , why not introduced it to every household no matter whether its working , retired or on welfare in lib/nats electorates only

  17. poroti

    Disunity is always death.

    In this case, there was a process by which Aboriginal people decided who would speak for them. They put a voice to Parliament ahead of a treaty.

    This viewpoint should be respected.

    Yes, there are a range of views in the Aboriginal community – I repeat, as I often do, that we’re dealing with at least 200 different nations – but it undermines their causes when governments negotiate in good faith with those who they believe represent the community only to have others then put forward a different agenda.

    Thorpe is undermining the Uluru statement with her comments. It’s hard enough to find a way forward as it is.

    The federal government will very happily seize on any opportunity to say that there’s no use their doing anything, when Aborigines themselves can’t agree on what they should do.

  18. Zoomster it will be a long and hard road before any reasonable agreement is reached and accepted. I believe the will is there but it won’t be easy.

  19. On a lighter note

    It does put a smile on my face ,seeing Turnbull joining Rudd on their vendetta against Murdoch

  20. Scott says:
    Sunday, May 2, 2021 at 7:29 pm
    On a lighter note

    It does put a smile on my face ,seeing Turnbull joining Rudd on their vendetta against Murdoch
    ______________
    Its good to smile and laugh (preferably many times) during the course of a day.

  21. Does any bludger actually think that the Libs would not privatise healthcare lock stock and barrel IF they thought they could get away with it?

  22. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/30/essential-research-2pp-coalition-46-labor-47-undecided-7/comment-page-23/#comment-3600374

    The majority of them would. Some of the hard liners probably want to try privatisation in a way the following ALP government would have to be militant to unscramble. There are probably a few comparative moderates (at least on this issue) uninterested in privatising health. The Nats are less likely to be into privatisation.

  23. When the Uluru Statement from the Heart was issued back in 2017, the first thing that then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull did was to repeat the hard right lie that the Voice would be a third chamber of Parliament. Now some of the Nationals and many Liberals are probably stupid enough to believe that but not Malcolm. I would have expected the statement to move quickly to the “too hard” pile, but it was disappointing to see it dismissed out of hand like that.

    Those Liberals and Nationals of better will mostly seem to be assimilationist at heart. They believe that Aborigines should merge into the broader community, get a nice house with a white picket fence and forget about their history and traditions. Those of not so good will hold Aboriginal Australia in contempt and some are racist. Those Coalition members of good will may accept the blandest preamble to the Constitution that says the Aborigines were here first. The Right would oppose even that.

  24. AE probably but it’s a moot point. If they tried they would be smashed at the next election. Taking on the medical professions was a major contributor to Campbell Newman’s rapid fall from a lofty height.

  25. The result of mediscare was to put back any possible reform of Medicare back by decades, let alone dismantling it.

  26. From a certain pov Mediscare is the reason we have ScoMo. It saved Shorten’s bacon in 2016 when otherwise he would have been a oncer and replaced by someone who likely would have won in 2019.

    Anyway the ALP are amateur hour when it comes to scare campaigns on health – the US republicans claimed that Obamacare would lead to death panels, ie doctors deciding who lived or died due to health care rationing.

  27. Lars Von Trier @ #1131 Sunday, May 2nd, 2021 – 7:58 pm

    Anyway the ALP are amateur hour when it comes to scare campaigns on health – the US republicans claimed that Obamacare would lead to death panels, ie doctors deciding who lived or died due to health care rationing.

    And yet despite having control of the House, Senate, and Presidency they couldn’t get rid of it. Savvy political operators, indeed. 😆

  28. Oakshott

    The result of mediscare was to put back any possible reform of Medicare back by decades, let alone dismantling it.

    I hope you’re right but I don’t share your confidence.

  29. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, May 2, 2021 at 7:41 pm

    Does any bludger actually think that the Libs would not privatise healthcare lock stock and barrel IF they thought they could get away with it?’

    They will try to destroy it the same way they are destroying the ABC – a bit at a time.

  30. Lars Von Trier @ #1134 Sunday, May 2nd, 2021 – 8:02 pm

    Except it got them control of both houses of Congress ar in the first place.

    Think it was at least as much gerrymandering and the usual opposition to the incumbent party that did that.

    If the Obamacare stuff was really all that effective, Obama never should have won a second term. His name is in the word!

  31. L’arse – but for mediscare Shorten was on track for a net gain of 9 or 10 seats. Arguably it helped shorten secure another 4-5 seats in the last week.

    That being the case Shorten would have still secured the leadership for another term. Who knows, if he only won a net 9 seats then perhaps he wouldn’t have peaked early. The national secretariat and campaign team may not have gotten complacent and ignored the shift in key issues since the august 2018 libspill. Maybe Bowen would have gotten his way and Labor would have switched from a roll out of big spending social policies to a blatant tax bribe (bringing forward the equivalent of stage 2 and 3 tax cuts to July 2019) paid for by the winding back of franking credits, capital gains and negative gearing concessions: a keatingesque ‘grand bargain’.

    Sliding doors and all of that.

  32. Lars

    “Anyway the ALP are amateur hour when it comes to scare campaigns on health – the US republicans claimed that Obamacare would lead to death panels, ie doctors deciding who lived or died due to health care rationing.”

    You are correct.

    The Right are past-masters at scare campaigns. They lie with impunity, their friends own all the big megaphones.

    Mediscare was a rare example of a highly successful Labor scare campaign. It rang true – because it was. No need to lie. The Coalition opposed the introduction of Medicare. They dismantled its predecessor Medibank early in their third term. They tried to make a start on the demolition of Medicare in their 2014 Budget. They want to privatise Medicare – how do we know? It’s in public ownership. They want to means test it (item 20 on the IPAs 2012 wish list). Privatisation or means testing would mean Medicare’s effective abolition.

  33. Steve 777
    You don’t think Medicare could possibly be improved
    (My own view is that in the lack of government reform the system will reach a roadblock within 5 yearswith increasing gap in care between the haves and havenots)

  34. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/30/essential-research-2pp-coalition-46-labor-47-undecided-7/comment-page-23/#comment-3600391

    In 2019 the ALP needed to do a few thing differently, including:

    The franking credits policy was a mistake. They proposed cut franking credits from the wrong end, the way to cut franking credits is death by a thousand caps, not big cuts for the lower income tax brackets (more likely to be early retirees for whom it represents a more significant proportion of their income) and no cuts for the richer people in higher tax brackets. Exempting the various pensioners did not cut it either. Ordinary voters are not Keatingite tax wonks.

    Sell the negative gearing policy better. It had non-general revenue winners of the sympathetic kind (first home buyers) and so was comparatively easy to sell. (Property by property quarantining of losses, to prevent existing landlords with profitable properties from negative gearing, would have been good but did not cost them any votes. It was however symptomatic of the tax wonkery issue, investment category quarantining has not pull in voterland.)

    The bringing forward tax cuts probably would have helped.

    Not invite Keating to the campaign launch. His interview was off message for the ALP, particularly his comments on sacking people in security agencies for their robust attitude to the CCP/PRC. The ALP said they would not do that but damage was done.

  35. Tom

    The best thing they could have done was go on a cash splash with the money raised from the changes proposed – ‘if you want X, you’ll need to accept the changes to negative gearing’ is a more powerful message than ‘we’re going to get rid of negative gearing so that we have lots of cash in the bank.’

  36. Re Oakeshott @8:37.

    You don’t think Medicare could possibly be improved

    I’m sure it can be improved, but not by this corrupt and incompetent Government.

  37. ttfab

    The way to have handled franking credits would have been to simply set a cap on the amount. That way there’s absolutely no way to confuse the issue. Set the cap at (say) $50k. That way you can tell people “it will only affect a few thousand people”.

    When you get into power, gradually reduce the cap.

  38. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/30/essential-research-2pp-coalition-46-labor-47-undecided-7/comment-page-23/#comment-3600398

    I agree that a cash splash would have been better than banking the money. However, you have missed my main point about negative gearing. It wasn`t just about general revenue, it was also about people trying to buy their own home being less likely to be outbid by landlords and that was a way of selling it to aspirant first home buyers and their parents and grandparents.

  39. Steve 777
    The big chance was lost under Rudd.
    The Bennett committee gave him 3 options of which the best but most radical was Medicare select. He achieved a little but couldn’t steel himself to make the fundamental changes that would have secured Medicare for another 25 years

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