Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 46, Labor 47, undecided 7

A big gender gap on an otherwise finely balanced result on voting intention from Essential Research, plus Newspoll follow-ups on leaders’ attributes and COVID-19.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has unloaded its latest quarterly-or-so dump of voting intention results, which should presumably appear in full later today. According to the pollster’s headline “2PP+” measure, which leaves a hole marked “undecided” in its two-party preferred, the Coalition and Labor are both on 46% while undecided is at 7% (presumably the failure to sum to 100 is down to rounding). We are also told that the Coalition is on 39% of the primary vote with Labor on 34%, but this too would be from a set of numbers including an undecided component of around 7%.

There is also a particularly wide gender gap in the latest results, though I’m not clear if they are basing this entirely on the latest poll result or from a quarterly accumulation like the ones familiar from Newspoll. The Coalition trails Labor by 37% to 31% on the primary vote among women, which converts to 50% to 38% on 2PP+, whereas the January result had the Coalition leading 37% to 33% on the former measure and 47% to 44% on the latter. Conversely, the Coalition leads Labor among men by 47% to 31% on primary and 55-42 on 2PP+.

This was all in addition to the usual fortnightly release from Essential Research, which offered yet more data on COVID-19. Forty-three per cent now think the vaccine rollout is being done efficiently, down from 68% in late February, while 63% think it is being done safely, down from 73%, and 52% think it will be effective at stopping the virus in the country, down from 64%. Forty-five per cent rate felt the rollout was proceeding more slowly than they would like, which is in fact a seven-point improvement on a fortnight ago: among this group, 48% felt the federal government most responsible, up six points.

There have also been two further tranches of results from Newspoll’s weekend poll, one of which related that the Morrison government’s handling of COVID-19 was rated positively by 70% (down from 82% in June) and negatively by 27% (up from 15%), and that 53% were satisfied with the vaccine rollout compared with 43% who were unsatisfied. The other set of results related perceptions of the two party leaders according to nine character traits. Compared with the last such results in August, Scott Morrison was held in slightly lower regard overall, the biggest movement being a ten point drop on “understands the major issues”. Anthony Albanese’s ratings were stable – the only one on which he scored better than Morrison was “arrogant”, a quality attributed to Morrison by 52% and to Albanese by 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,180 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Coalition 46, Labor 47, undecided 7”

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  1. So, people are still coming in from India (via Doha).

    Yet another Morrison f-up.

    You just can’t trust the Libs with ANYTHING !

  2. So the behavior in parliament is not enough to turn the men off. I wonder f running around “laying hands” on people is. I find it creepy to the extreme.

  3. NPR .org
    Just heard US epidemiologist say Indian covid infections would peak at end on May @ 5 million infections per day , deaths peak 3 weeks later @ 12,ooo per day.

  4. I know you think this blog is read by movers, shakers and policy makers, but it isn’t really. Notwithstanding William’s professionally set out articles at thread’s head, most of the stuff here is penny-ante political claptrap and humbuggery, ill thought out, trite in premise and consequence, tribally self-referencing, and meaningless in anything but the minutest of minute “Grand Schemes”.

    Said with absolutely zero self-awareness by a poster who can’t resist the pull of the blog himself. 🙄

  5. Brilliant wordsmithing by Paul Daley in The Guardian Australia:

    Who’s ready to go over-the-top with Mike Pezzullo?

    Well, not so much with, perhaps. More like at his command (don’t he just wish!) – in a do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do kind of way.

    Yep, it was a terribly mournful but oh-so-rugged-talking home affairs secretary with an eye on the top defence bureaucrat’s job who took it as his solemn responsibility to pen a purple job applic … err, essay, The Longing for Peace, the Curse of War, lamenting the nation’s potential sorrowful duty to dispatch troops to another war.

    ‘Fuel on the fire’: war of words between Australia and China stokes tension
    Read more
    Timing is all in politics and the wheels upon which it rolls, of course. And as it happened armchair general Pezzullo crafted his comments on the very same day his even tougher guy bro’, new defence minister Peter Dutton, warned of possible war with China over Taiwan.

    A coincidence that! Well life, as they say, is full of them. And here’s another: Dutton spoke on Anzac Day just as Pezzullo posted his dissertation on the home affairs website. And to think most of his staff were enjoying a public holiday. I mean, it was never intended to be made all that public … as evidenced by its publication as an op-ed in the Australian the very next day.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/29/dutton-and-pezzullo-talk-up-the-beating-drums-of-war-but-it-is-not-them-who-will-have-to-fight

  6. C@t
    Looks like that’s where India is going. At what cost .

    At a philosophical / ethical level it makes China India comparisons interesting. Where would it be better to live?

  7. Sadly looks like a close loss for Albo in 2022.

    Charles/ Fred – labor still needs religious people to vote for it to win.


  8. Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, April 30, 2021 at 7:05 am

    Sadly looks like a close loss for Albo in 2022.

    labor still needs religious people to vote for it to win.

    Religious people don’t run around “laying hands” on people. There may one or two way out there cults that do, that is a different matter.

  9. What would you know about what religious people do or don’t do?

    Your presumably a committed secularist – when would you have been in a mosque, church or temple to know ?

  10. Lars Von Trier
    ‘Religious people’, in or out of the party ? WA and Qld Libs have been getting infested with Xtian ‘Talibans’ and it has not been working out too well for them electorally.

  11. Australia would reach herd immunity in 5 days at that rate!

    Divide by 50 to get an approximate equivalent per capita rate for Australia ~ 100,000 per day.

  12. Sceptic @ #9 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 7:02 am

    C@t
    Looks like that’s where India is going. At what cost .

    At a philosophical / ethical level it makes China India comparisons interesting. Where would it be better to live?

    Sceptic,
    As recently as yesterday I heard India described as ‘a vibrant democracy that Indians cherish’, so, and despite Modi’s Authoritarian proclivities I think the Indians themselves will always prefer to be what they are rather than be made to live in a fully Authoritarian state, with thought police, cameras on every corner loaded with facial recognition software and a ‘Social Credit’ program. Imagine trying to make all the Indian gurus who sit on the top of mountains all their lives dispensing wisdom get a ‘real’ job! 😀

    It was also said that Indians are well-organised and will keep on going in the face of disaster. Witness to this is the law that was quickly passed to deal with the Oxygen crisis, which it seems is a function of hoarding, diversion and the black market. Anyone from now on caught doing any of that will be hanged. Brutal, yes, but effective as the alternative is too many Indians dying from lack of oxygen. Good people.


  13. Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, April 30, 2021 at 7:16 am

    What would you know about what religious people do or don’t do?

    Your presumably a committed secularist – when would you have been in a mosque, church or temple to know ?

    Been in all three Lars, been in all three, plus more, I find religion fascinating. The PM’s behavior is creepy.

  14. If 40% of Australians espouse a religion, why would u piss of a good portion of those people by mocking their religion?

    Who cares what scomo believes or doesn’t ? – but when you mock his belief you signal to those people u don’t get or relate to them ?

  15. #CreepyChristian

    I also have regular contact with religious Australians, in the Uniting, Catholic and Anglican churches. They are not enamoured of Morrison’s Pentecostalist ways at all.

  16. Lars Von Trier
    40% of people don’t go around touching people uninvited. In my view for you to go around claiming the PM’s creepy behavior is about being religious is a bridge to far.

  17. Frednk @ #22 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 7:33 am

    Lars Von Trier
    40% of people don’t go around touching people uninvited. In my view for you to go around claiming the PM’s creepy behavior is about being religious is a bridge to far.

    Especially when the historical context of the founder of Hillsong Church, Frank Houston, being a person who loved going even further than the laying on of hands, is taken into consideration.

    #CreepyChristian

  18. I caught 730 last night halfway through the Andrew Laming story and was surprised he is claiming ADHD as responsible for his completely inappropriate and creepy behaviour towards women and his constituents. It seems to me that a health diagnosis is Crisis Management Communication 101 for anyone experiencing the public blowback of poor behaviour.

  19. There’s been a number of confirmed paedo cases in the alp over the years – that doesn’t mean the alp is a paedo organisation

  20. No, I was just taking the raw figure and making an unreal projection.

    Yes I thought so. I was converting it to a per capita equivalent to appreciate how bad things are over in India.

    The number is also equivalent to about 25,000 per day in Victoria, more than 30 times worse than the peak of last year’s second wave.

  21. It is beyond belief that Andrew Laming is still a member of the Australian government.

    On another point what has happened to:

    “Debt and deficit?”

  22. On another point what has happened to:

    “Debt and deficit?”

    The Coalition did it so it’s OK, except the bit left over from 2013.

  23. Rex Douglas @ #1 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 3:54 am

    So, people are still coming in from India (via Doha).

    Yet another Morrison f-up.

    You just can’t trust the Libs with ANYTHING !

    It’s not a mater of trust, it’s understanding the power that you have over something.

    Most travellers to and from India would transit through another country.

    It’s the nature of international airline agreements.

    If your intention was to ban people coming immediately from India you would impose a ban on anyone who had been in India in the previous 14 days or so and force them to be in another country before continuing to Australia.

  24. It is beyond belief that Andrew Laming is still a member of the Australian government.

    As I understand it he sits on the cross benches and has been disendorsed by the LNP for the next election.

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

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    https://www.smh.com.au/national/good-reason-for-frydenberg-to-steer-clear-of-austerity-measures-in-budget-20210429-p57nl1.html
    And the SMH editorial warns that budget austerity could damage the budding economic recovery.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/budget-austerity-could-damage-the-budding-economic-recovery-20210429-p57nkr.html
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    https://johnmenadue.com/what-will-frydenberg-forecast-for-the-budget-in-the-2021-intergenerational-report/
    Peter Martin reveals that Australia’s top economists have overwhelmingly backed a decision by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to reset the budget strategy so that it prioritises achieving an unemployment rate of between 4% and 5% over reducing debt.
    https://theconversation.com/exclusive-top-economists-back-budget-push-for-an-unemployment-rate-beginning-with-4-159989
    Scott Morrison’s India and China problems share the same challenge — finding the right balance, writes Michelle Grattan who says he is walking a tightrope.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-30/balance-needed-on-india-flights-and-china-relations/100105976
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    https://johnmenadue.com/tamed-estate-cosy-circle-receiving-coalitions-drops-widens-to-include-ruperts-tabloids/
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    The Australian’s Jamie Walker explains how Amanda Stoker and James McGrath are locked in a huge backroom battle over their position on the Senate ticket.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/queensland-senate-ticket-amanda-stoker-and-james-mcgrath-in-backroom-battle/news-story/9b56252df8b49c59a8d5f605efffb1b0
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    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/inside-the-intense-political-drama-at-asic-20210429-p57njw
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    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/josh-frydenberg-secretly-deletes-asic-corruption-findings,15034
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    Elizabeth Knight reports that regional airline Rex has accused Qantas and Virgin of dumping capacity on the domestic market in order to crush the smaller airline and has now asked the ACCC to intervene.
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    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/anti-racism-allies-more-needs-to-be-done,15030
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    Here’s today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”. I wonder what his motivation was.
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    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Cathy Wilcox
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/7fc7634899c3501feef30c3f36d8f7ed22230274,jpg

    Matt Golding




    A gif from Glen Le Lievre
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1387665804062195712
    David Rowe

    Mark Knight

    Simon Letch

    Mark David

    John Shakespeare

    Andrew Dyson

    Johannes Leak in full flight

    From the US













  26. Regarding “religious” people, they are indeed a broad church, or many broad churches.

    Some believe in a vindictive and vengeful God who smites their enemies and who will smite them if they step out of line, rather like Zeus or Ivan the Terrible.

    Many people somehow feel the presence of God and it gives them comfort and meaning. A complete mystery to me but they’re not lying.

    Some believe the bits in various holy books about justice, love and compassion and try to live these as best they can.

  27. In my Pentecostal days, laying on of hands was never done without the person who had the hands being laid upon them being aware of the action and its purpose.

    Given the way these things ‘work’, I doubt laying on of hands without the awareness of the person involved achieves anything, given the placebo effect must have a huge element in the success of these practices.

  28. Lars when the founder of a church is, surly it says something about the church? One positive thing you have to say about Hillsong, it has never pretended to be anything other than a money grabbing enterprise.

    https://theoutline.com/post/6172/why-i-left-hillsong-justin-biebers-beloved-evangelical-church

    That aside, the outcome of all this will not depend on Murdoch’s or your defense (it’s religion). Religion is deeply held, that is why I find it so fascinating. If people find it creepy, then creepy it is. The effect it will have on the polls will be interesting.

  29. Morning all. Interesting poll in terms of the decline in Morrison’s ratings for handling the vaccination. Labor should focus on that IMO.

    Regarding Pentecostalism, as practiced by Morrison’s “church”, IMO it is hardly a religion at all. More a feel-good self-help group that values the tax-free status gained from being a religion. It has jettisoned so many core aspects of christianity that it only calls itself christian as a branding exercise.

  30. Lars Von Triers

    If 40% of Australians espouse a religion, why would u piss of a good portion of those people by mocking their religion?

    And how many of them are ‘tick the box’ rather than ‘devout’ ?

  31. Based on your postulate Fred/Charles what does it say about qld labor that a qld labor leader Keith Wright was a convicted paedo ?

  32. poroti says:
    Friday, April 30, 2021 at 7:17 am
    “Lars Von Trier
    ‘Religious people’, in or out of the party ? WA and Qld Libs have been getting infested with Xtian ‘Talibans’ and it has not been working out too well for them electorally.”

    Any evidence to support a link?

    Correlation does not equal causation and you overstate the issue anyway.

  33. fess

    Brought up as a Christian, then when I was in my late teens, our circle went pentecostal. I went along to get along but can remember knowing that I wasn’t feeling what I was supposed to be feeling. It didn’t take many years after escaping from home for me to become a firm atheist.

    None of my family seem to be overly religious now – my mother would scream blue murder if she suggested she wasn’t, but I don’t think she even goes to church now.

  34. I am predicting a hung parliament in 2022 with Haines, Sharkie, Wilkie, Steggal, and Bandt in the driver’s seat. This because Labor cannot win a majority unless it improves its vote among men. The government has done a great job at appealing to men, particularly those who are IT workers, tradies, and miners who do vote for Labor.

    If say Jim Chalmers was Labor leader, then the boost of support Labor would get in Queensland by him being Federal leader would be enough to get a workable majority.

  35. …mind you, my mother doesn’t accept that I’m an atheist. She seems to think I’m faking it and am really still a Christian, because I’m not actively evil.

  36. Socrates @ #37 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 7:57 am

    Morning all. Interesting poll in terms of the decline in Morrison’s ratings for handling the vaccination. Labor should focus on that IMO.

    Regarding Pentecostalism, as practiced by Morrison’s “church”, IMO it is hardly a religion at all. More a feel-good self-help group that values the tax-free status gained from being a religion. It has jettisoned so many core aspects of christianity that it only calls itself christian as a branding exercise.

    +1

  37. Well, that was new. I posted a comment, which came up on the New Thread but was thrown back onto the Old Thread afterwards! 😯

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