The Guardian reports Essential Research has unloaded its latest quarterly-or-so dump of voting intention results, which should presumably appear in full later today. According to the pollster’s headline “2PP+” measure, which leaves a hole marked “undecided” in its two-party preferred, the Coalition and Labor are both on 46% while undecided is at 7% (presumably the failure to sum to 100 is down to rounding). We are also told that the Coalition is on 39% of the primary vote with Labor on 34%, but this too would be from a set of numbers including an undecided component of around 7%.
There is also a particularly wide gender gap in the latest results, though I’m not clear if they are basing this entirely on the latest poll result or from a quarterly accumulation like the ones familiar from Newspoll. The Coalition trails Labor by 37% to 31% on the primary vote among women, which converts to 50% to 38% on 2PP+, whereas the January result had the Coalition leading 37% to 33% on the former measure and 47% to 44% on the latter. Conversely, the Coalition leads Labor among men by 47% to 31% on primary and 55-42 on 2PP+.
This was all in addition to the usual fortnightly release from Essential Research, which offered yet more data on COVID-19. Forty-three per cent now think the vaccine rollout is being done efficiently, down from 68% in late February, while 63% think it is being done safely, down from 73%, and 52% think it will be effective at stopping the virus in the country, down from 64%. Forty-five per cent rate felt the rollout was proceeding more slowly than they would like, which is in fact a seven-point improvement on a fortnight ago: among this group, 48% felt the federal government most responsible, up six points.
There have also been two further tranches of results from Newspoll’s weekend poll, one of which related that the Morrison government’s handling of COVID-19 was rated positively by 70% (down from 82% in June) and negatively by 27% (up from 15%), and that 53% were satisfied with the vaccine rollout compared with 43% who were unsatisfied. The other set of results related perceptions of the two party leaders according to nine character traits. Compared with the last such results in August, Scott Morrison was held in slightly lower regard overall, the biggest movement being a ten point drop on “understands the major issues”. Anthony Albanese’s ratings were stable – the only one on which he scored better than Morrison was “arrogant”, a quality attributed to Morrison by 52% and to Albanese by 40%.
So, people are still coming in from India (via Doha).
Yet another Morrison f-up.
You just can’t trust the Libs with ANYTHING !
So the behavior in parliament is not enough to turn the men off. I wonder f running around “laying hands” on people is. I find it creepy to the extreme.
https://theunaustralian.net/2021/04/29/scomo-tells-those-wishing-to-get-vaccinated-to-learn-to-throw-a-javelin/
NPR .org
Just heard US epidemiologist say Indian covid infections would peak at end on May @ 5 million infections per day , deaths peak 3 weeks later @ 12,ooo per day.
I know you think this blog is read by movers, shakers and policy makers, but it isn’t really. Notwithstanding William’s professionally set out articles at thread’s head, most of the stuff here is penny-ante political claptrap and humbuggery, ill thought out, trite in premise and consequence, tribally self-referencing, and meaningless in anything but the minutest of minute “Grand Schemes”.
Said with absolutely zero self-awareness by a poster who can’t resist the pull of the blog himself. 🙄
How a Drunk, Unstable Billionaire Became Netanyahu and Mossad Chief’s Confidant
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.HIGHLIGHT.MAGAZINE-unstable-billionaire-james-packer-netanyahu-mossad-chief-s-confidant-1.9759071
Sceptic @ #4 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 6:54 am
Australia would reach herd immunity in 5 days at that rate! 😯
Brilliant wordsmithing by Paul Daley in The Guardian Australia:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/29/dutton-and-pezzullo-talk-up-the-beating-drums-of-war-but-it-is-not-them-who-will-have-to-fight
C@t
Looks like that’s where India is going. At what cost .
At a philosophical / ethical level it makes China India comparisons interesting. Where would it be better to live?
Sadly looks like a close loss for Albo in 2022.
Charles/ Fred – labor still needs religious people to vote for it to win.
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, April 30, 2021 at 7:05 am
Sadly looks like a close loss for Albo in 2022.
…
labor still needs religious people to vote for it to win.
Religious people don’t run around “laying hands” on people. There may one or two way out there cults that do, that is a different matter.
Morning all. WA’s lower house has its first female speaker, and my friend was sworn in yesterday along with many other women MPs.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-29/wa-first-female-lower-house-speaker-sworn-in/100104662
What would you know about what religious people do or don’t do?
Your presumably a committed secularist – when would you have been in a mosque, church or temple to know ?
Lars Von Trier
‘Religious people’, in or out of the party ? WA and Qld Libs have been getting infested with Xtian ‘Talibans’ and it has not been working out too well for them electorally.
Australia would reach herd immunity in 5 days at that rate!
Divide by 50 to get an approximate equivalent per capita rate for Australia ~ 100,000 per day.
Lars Von Trier
Hillsong claims 43000 members, hardly a significant voting block.
Sceptic @ #9 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 7:02 am
Sceptic,
As recently as yesterday I heard India described as ‘a vibrant democracy that Indians cherish’, so, and despite Modi’s Authoritarian proclivities I think the Indians themselves will always prefer to be what they are rather than be made to live in a fully Authoritarian state, with thought police, cameras on every corner loaded with facial recognition software and a ‘Social Credit’ program. Imagine trying to make all the Indian gurus who sit on the top of mountains all their lives dispensing wisdom get a ‘real’ job! 😀
It was also said that Indians are well-organised and will keep on going in the face of disaster. Witness to this is the law that was quickly passed to deal with the Oxygen crisis, which it seems is a function of hoarding, diversion and the black market. Anyone from now on caught doing any of that will be hanged. Brutal, yes, but effective as the alternative is too many Indians dying from lack of oxygen. Good people.
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, April 30, 2021 at 7:16 am
What would you know about what religious people do or don’t do?
Your presumably a committed secularist – when would you have been in a mosque, church or temple to know ?
Been in all three Lars, been in all three, plus more, I find religion fascinating. The PM’s behavior is creepy.
If 40% of Australians espouse a religion, why would u piss of a good portion of those people by mocking their religion?
Who cares what scomo believes or doesn’t ? – but when you mock his belief you signal to those people u don’t get or relate to them ?
Some interesting photos of the Howard Springs quarantine facility in this.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-27/nt-revokes-wa-covid-hotspots-arrivals-to-leave-quarantine/100098746
What I find fascinating is that there is essentially nothing stopping you dropping in on your neighbour. Yet, the facility has a perfect record.
#CreepyChristian
I also have regular contact with religious Australians, in the Uniting, Catholic and Anglican churches. They are not enamoured of Morrison’s Pentecostalist ways at all.
Lars Von Trier
40% of people don’t go around touching people uninvited. In my view for you to go around claiming the PM’s creepy behavior is about being religious is a bridge to far.
Steve777 @ #15 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 7:19 am
No, I was just taking the raw figure and making an unreal projection. 🙂
Frednk @ #22 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 7:33 am
Especially when the historical context of the founder of Hillsong Church, Frank Houston, being a person who loved going even further than the laying on of hands, is taken into consideration.
#CreepyChristian
There’s been a number of confirmed paedo cases in the alp over the years – that doesn’t mean the alp is a paedo organisation
No, I was just taking the raw figure and making an unreal projection.
Yes I thought so. I was converting it to a per capita equivalent to appreciate how bad things are over in India.
The number is also equivalent to about 25,000 per day in Victoria, more than 30 times worse than the peak of last year’s second wave.
It is beyond belief that Andrew Laming is still a member of the Australian government.
On another point what has happened to:
“Debt and deficit?”
Frednksays:
Friday, April 30, 2021 at 6:40 am
Same reason why Donald Trump got so many votes – men.
On another point what has happened to:
“Debt and deficit?”
The Coalition did it so it’s OK, except the bit left over from 2013.
Rex Douglas @ #1 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 3:54 am
It’s not a mater of trust, it’s understanding the power that you have over something.
Most travellers to and from India would transit through another country.
It’s the nature of international airline agreements.
If your intention was to ban people coming immediately from India you would impose a ban on anyone who had been in India in the previous 14 days or so and force them to be in another country before continuing to Australia.
As I understand it he sits on the cross benches and has been disendorsed by the LNP for the next election.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
According to Shane Wright, the nation’s jobless rate could be driven much lower than the sub-5 per cent target to be set by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in the May budget, economists said as business leaders urged the government to unleash a wave of digital reforms that could deliver a $210 billion economic pay-off.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-urged-to-go-hell-for-leather-in-pushing-down-jobless-rate-20210429-p57ngh.html
Phil Coorey says the Treasurer’s jobless target is aimed at the next election.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/treasurer-s-jobless-target-is-aimed-at-the-next-election-20210428-p57n9h
David Crowe says there are good reasons for Frydenberg to steer clear of austerity measures in his budget.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/good-reason-for-frydenberg-to-steer-clear-of-austerity-measures-in-budget-20210429-p57nl1.html
And the SMH editorial warns that budget austerity could damage the budding economic recovery.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/budget-austerity-could-damage-the-budding-economic-recovery-20210429-p57nkr.html
Australia’s first four Intergenerational Reports made very different long-term forecasts of Australia’s budget balance and level of government debt driven largely by different assumptions of the real rate of economic growth. Abul Rizvi asks, “What will Josh Frydenberg forecast in his 2021 Intergenerational Report after forecasting budgetary nirvana in his 2019 ten year budget plan?”
https://johnmenadue.com/what-will-frydenberg-forecast-for-the-budget-in-the-2021-intergenerational-report/
Peter Martin reveals that Australia’s top economists have overwhelmingly backed a decision by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to reset the budget strategy so that it prioritises achieving an unemployment rate of between 4% and 5% over reducing debt.
https://theconversation.com/exclusive-top-economists-back-budget-push-for-an-unemployment-rate-beginning-with-4-159989
Scott Morrison’s India and China problems share the same challenge — finding the right balance, writes Michelle Grattan who says he is walking a tightrope.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-30/balance-needed-on-india-flights-and-china-relations/100105976
It’s been a while since the government actually announced a policy and that drought looks set to continue. Because even though there was blanket media coverage of the fact that the federal government is planning a big budget spend, the government once again delivered that announcement via “a cosy briefing to a tight crew of chosen Canberra-based journalists“, complains Michael Tanner.
https://johnmenadue.com/tamed-estate-cosy-circle-receiving-coalitions-drops-widens-to-include-ruperts-tabloids/
Jennifer Duke explains how the $3 trillion superannuation sector is bracing for the government to get new powers allowing the Treasurer to block investments and spending decisions politicians dislike.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/super-funds-brace-for-government-to-get-the-power-to-cancel-investments-it-doesn-t-like-20210429-p57nkj.html
Tom Rabe reports that Gladys Berejiklian has said NSW will go it alone on fast rail instead of waiting for consensus from state and federal governments and she signalled a renewed focus on privatising public assets to finance future infrastructure projects.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-signals-renewed-focus-on-privatisation-will-go-it-alone-on-fast-rail-20210429-p57nl4.html
The Australian’s Jamie Walker explains how Amanda Stoker and James McGrath are locked in a huge backroom battle over their position on the Senate ticket.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/queensland-senate-ticket-amanda-stoker-and-james-mcgrath-in-backroom-battle/news-story/9b56252df8b49c59a8d5f605efffb1b0
Jennifer Hewett looks inside the intense political drama at ASIC.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/inside-the-intense-political-drama-at-asic-20210429-p57njw
The Federal Government secretly deleted from the “independent review” into the corporate regulator three-quarters of the findings into $118,557 the regulator’s boss James Shipton charged taxpayers for his personal “tax advice”, writes Anthony Clan.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/josh-frydenberg-secretly-deletes-asic-corruption-findings,15034
Eryk Bagshaw tells us that China’s top diplomat in Australia has warned Chinese students and tourists will question whether to return to Australia after the coronavirus pandemic, raising the possibility of further trade blows to Australian goods. The comments from ambassador Cheng Jingye come as Australian winemakers reel from a 96 per cent drop in the value of their exports to China.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/value-of-australian-wine-exports-to-china-falls-96-per-cent-20210429-p57ngx.html
Labor learnt a valuable lesson at the last federal election; attacking Scott Morrison’s religion doesn’t work. In fact, it has the opposite effect, opines Annika Smethurst.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/religion-is-at-the-heart-of-the-pm-20210429-p57nla.html
The former Liberal staffer sacked after videos of him masturbating on the desk of a female MP were aired on television has made a report to police over allegations of revenge porn.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/staffer-in-parliament-masturbating-video-files-police-report-over-revenge-porn-20210429-p57nnd.html
Carrie Fellner reports that conditions are so dire in a NSW hospital that its doctors are threatening to quit en masse, as a parliamentary inquiry heard tea ladies are sometimes forced to check on newborn babies because no nurses are available. Bloody hell!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/alarm-over-nsw-hospital-where-newborns-are-seen-by-tea-ladies-instead-of-nurses-20210429-p57nma.html
Simon Sawyer argues that government demands for arbitrary performance targets are contributing to ambulance delays and paramedic exhaustion. This is a prime example of punk measures leading to punk results.
https://theconversation.com/government-demands-for-arbitrary-performance-targets-are-contributing-to-ambulance-delays-paramedic-exhaustion-159823
Latika Bourke tells us Scott Morrison has repeated his assertion that identity politics and the moral corrosion caused by the misuse of social media are forces seeking to undermine society.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-warns-identity-politics-abuse-of-social-media-undermining-society-20210429-p57nnw.html
Results from opinion polls are regularly accorded more weight than they deserve, particularly given that their methodology is not transparent; their language can shape answers; and only a small percentage of those contacted respond. Yet polls may also independently shape voting choices. Michael Tanner reports.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/numbers-can-lie-the-science-behind-opinion-polls/
The changes being considered to the NDIS by the Morrison government are a real concern to anyone living with a disability or caring for someone with a disability argues Phil Hayes-Brown, the CEO of disability services provider Wallara.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/turbulence-ahead-for-ndis-amid-proposed-changes-20210429-p57nfx.html
The Therapeutic Goods Administration has warned Australians against jumping to conclusions with cases of blood clots linked to AstraZeneca, following two recent NSW deaths that occurred shortly after vaccination. TGA head Professor John Skerritt said the cases were still under investigation, but the evidence did not suggest the deaths were linked to the vaccine.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/two-nsw-men-die-after-receiving-astrazeneca-covid-vaccines-20210429-p57niu.html
But Melissa Cunningham tells us that doctors are reporting rising rates of vaccine hesitancy in elderly patients due to the risk of a rare blood-clotting condition that has been linked with the AstraZeneca vaccine.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/huge-hit-doctors-vaccine-researchers-see-surge-in-vaccine-hesitancy-20210428-p57n0q.html
Has Australia become more frightened of COVID-19 vaccines than of the disease itself, asks John Elder. He says the numbers say that we are leaning that way, with more than half of Australians aged over 50 are reportedly unwilling to get the AstraZeneca vaccine or the Pfizer jab. He concludes that Australians need to wake up.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2021/04/30/coronavirus-vaccine-death-fear/
Josh Butler reports that Senator Kristina Keneally has vowed Australia’s democracy will not be undermined by far-right extremism, as a Parliamentary inquiry heard she’d been the target of “terrible” abuse from neo-Nazi groups over her criticism of the fast-growing threat.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/04/29/far-right-extremism-threat/
AFLW player Jacinda Barclay, who died last year, has become the first contact sportswoman in Australia to donate her brain to the Australian Sports Brain Bank, where researchers have uncovered neurological damage that they described as a “ticking time bomb”, writes Stephanie Convery.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/apr/30/damage-found-after-late-aflw-player-jacinda-barclay-donates-brain-for-concussion-research
Michaela Whitbourn reports that Ben Roberts-Smith told his former wife he would sue her and seek to overturn a property settlement if she disclosed to lawyers acting against him in a defamation case any information she had agreed to keep confidential. Nice.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-threatens-to-sue-ex-wife-if-she-speaks-to-media-s-lawyers-20210429-p57nfh.html
Dutton and Pezzullo talk up the beating drums of war – but it is not them who will have to fight says Paul Daley.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/29/dutton-and-pezzullo-talk-up-the-beating-drums-of-war-but-it-is-not-them-who-will-have-to-fight
Mike Foley writes that the future of coal power is dead and buried as cheaper renewables make it uneconomic for private companies to keep their ageing plants firing, the Commonwealth’s energy adviser says as the Energy Security Board calls for urgent reforms to an energy market going through the fastest transition in the world.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fastest-change-in-the-world-coal-s-demise-sparks-call-for-energy-market-reforms-20210429-p57nhc.html
Christopher Knaus writes that commonwealth prosecutors have refused to drop their pursuit of tax office whistleblower Richard Boyle, prompting a withering response from human rights lawyers, who say the case is “profoundly wrong and unjust”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/29/prosecutors-refuse-to-drop-case-against-tax-office-whistleblower-richard-boyle
Elizabeth Knight reports that regional airline Rex has accused Qantas and Virgin of dumping capacity on the domestic market in order to crush the smaller airline and has now asked the ACCC to intervene.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/rex-appeals-to-umpire-as-aviation-dogfight-gets-personal-20210429-p57nkn.html
It takes real empathy for the plight of minorities and not just simple awareness to be a true advocate for the fight against racism, writes Marie Oelgemoeller.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/anti-racism-allies-more-needs-to-be-done,15030
‘Sleaze’ doesn’t capture it: Boris Johnson is utterly careless of everyone but himself, opines Aditya Chakrabortty.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/29/sleaze-boris-johnson-careless-privilege
The New York Times’ Annie Karni gives us four takeaways from Joe Biden’s address to Congress.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/four-takeaways-from-joe-biden-s-address-to-congress-20210429-p57niw.html
Here’s today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”. I wonder what his motivation was.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/man-charged-after-nsw-country-golf-course-ploughed-up-20210429-p57nmg.html
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
Cathy Wilcox
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/7fc7634899c3501feef30c3f36d8f7ed22230274,jpg
Matt Golding
A gif from Glen Le Lievre
https://twitter.com/i/status/1387665804062195712
David Rowe
Mark Knight
Simon Letch
Mark David
John Shakespeare
Andrew Dyson
Johannes Leak in full flight
From the US
Regarding “religious” people, they are indeed a broad church, or many broad churches.
Some believe in a vindictive and vengeful God who smites their enemies and who will smite them if they step out of line, rather like Zeus or Ivan the Terrible.
Many people somehow feel the presence of God and it gives them comfort and meaning. A complete mystery to me but they’re not lying.
Some believe the bits in various holy books about justice, love and compassion and try to live these as best they can.
In my Pentecostal days, laying on of hands was never done without the person who had the hands being laid upon them being aware of the action and its purpose.
Given the way these things ‘work’, I doubt laying on of hands without the awareness of the person involved achieves anything, given the placebo effect must have a huge element in the success of these practices.
Lars when the founder of a church is, surly it says something about the church? One positive thing you have to say about Hillsong, it has never pretended to be anything other than a money grabbing enterprise.
https://theoutline.com/post/6172/why-i-left-hillsong-justin-biebers-beloved-evangelical-church
That aside, the outcome of all this will not depend on Murdoch’s or your defense (it’s religion). Religion is deeply held, that is why I find it so fascinating. If people find it creepy, then creepy it is. The effect it will have on the polls will be interesting.
Morning all. Interesting poll in terms of the decline in Morrison’s ratings for handling the vaccination. Labor should focus on that IMO.
Regarding Pentecostalism, as practiced by Morrison’s “church”, IMO it is hardly a religion at all. More a feel-good self-help group that values the tax-free status gained from being a religion. It has jettisoned so many core aspects of christianity that it only calls itself christian as a branding exercise.
zoomster:
I would never have pegged you as a pentecostal!! 😮
OK, today’s Leak was a bit funny.
Lars Von Triers
And how many of them are ‘tick the box’ rather than ‘devout’ ?
Based on your postulate Fred/Charles what does it say about qld labor that a qld labor leader Keith Wright was a convicted paedo ?
poroti says:
Friday, April 30, 2021 at 7:17 am
“Lars Von Trier
‘Religious people’, in or out of the party ? WA and Qld Libs have been getting infested with Xtian ‘Talibans’ and it has not been working out too well for them electorally.”
Any evidence to support a link?
Correlation does not equal causation and you overstate the issue anyway.
fess
Brought up as a Christian, then when I was in my late teens, our circle went pentecostal. I went along to get along but can remember knowing that I wasn’t feeling what I was supposed to be feeling. It didn’t take many years after escaping from home for me to become a firm atheist.
None of my family seem to be overly religious now – my mother would scream blue murder if she suggested she wasn’t, but I don’t think she even goes to church now.
If 40% of Australians espouse a religion, why would u piss of a good portion of those people by mocking their religion?
Of those Australians who answered the religion question in the Census (90%), about two thirds claim adherence to a religion, the great majority one or other brand of Christianity:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Australia
I am predicting a hung parliament in 2022 with Haines, Sharkie, Wilkie, Steggal, and Bandt in the driver’s seat. This because Labor cannot win a majority unless it improves its vote among men. The government has done a great job at appealing to men, particularly those who are IT workers, tradies, and miners who do vote for Labor.
If say Jim Chalmers was Labor leader, then the boost of support Labor would get in Queensland by him being Federal leader would be enough to get a workable majority.
…mind you, my mother doesn’t accept that I’m an atheist. She seems to think I’m faking it and am really still a Christian, because I’m not actively evil.
Lars Von Trier @ #41 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 7:59 am
He was expelled from the Labor Party and convicted in a court of law, not embraced and covered up for by his son and other church elders.
BK
My pick is being denied membership 😆
Socrates @ #37 Friday, April 30th, 2021 – 7:57 am
+1
Well, that was new. I posted a comment, which came up on the New Thread but was thrown back onto the Old Thread afterwards! 😯
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, April 30, 2021 at 7:59 am
Based on your postulate Fred/Charles what does it say about qld labor that a qld labor leader Keith Wright was a convicted paedo ?
I’m sure every church has paedos in it’s congregation, most can even claim to have a priest or two convicted of the crime, but only one can claim to have a founder thus charged.
But as I said above, it has never really claimed to be good and holy, so the hypocrisy is not as deep.