My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”
Oh dear. General Spud will be right onto it.
Ben Robert-Smith and Stokes?
“ St George!!!!!”
Pity they don’t hand out Premierships in May: Saints would have won 6 out of the last 12 comps if they did & finished runners up in another 3.
I was just about to say PDut might be having heartburn right about now. It’s pretty disgusting. They look like potential coalition staffers.
Just caught up on Insiders this morning from the glorious seat of Bass (Which has the best highway roads pork can buy!).
I got a laugh, when there were doing vox pops and asking people about Albo. And one woman answered “Who!”
Ahh, and people gave me shit for #AbsentAlbo
Though really, Labor should be able to win on this vaccine stuff up. They need to start on the economic message. The lul in fighting was acceptable last year even though it would have been nice to see the feds ALP stick there heads up and fight for Dan, but now is time for Labor to angrily fight for those who have been left behind.
First steps thought, be noticed.
Co-ordinated Ch9-SMH attack on eve of defo trial. Three articles headlining the online SMH edition tonight.
The liberals have proven they couldn’t organise a r*** in a brothel. Parliament house is not a brothel, wrong location drongos. They are now working on proving they couldn’t organize a beer in pub.
How many MORE things are going to take the headlines away from the botched vaccine rollout?
If two people doing the same job at the same classification level with the same qualifications and experienced are being paid differently because of gender then that should be fixed next pay day because there is no excuse for it but performance based pay makes it harder to resolve because performance can vary between team members and types of clients.
It all falls into place Andrew_Earlwood re the timing.
Another brush fire for #clotmaster
Roberts-Smith brags that he only talks to Stokes on an encrypted phone.
Somebody leaks a tape of his bragging.
Are we there yet???
Freddy – From the sounds of it they can manage to get a root in the Parliament House pray room!
We really aren’t as special as we try to make out to the rest of the world.
Was there actually that much new in the 60 minutes report?
Aqualung @ #2772 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 7:41 pm
Ben Roberts-Smith concealing evidence and vowing to ‘get’ journalists for trying to take him down.
B.S. Fairman @ #2811 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 9:07 pm
The Lunch Box aspect.
Aqualung @ #2800 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 8:51 pm
Didn’t the Uber Potato just say last week that he had their back?
BK @ #2790 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 8:40 pm
This is so he can kick as many goals as he wants. No one can dispute whether it was a Goal or a Behind or a complete miss that way.
Just saw this on twitter:
Remember when Morrison said we couldn’t have an ICAC yet because the government was too busy focusing exclusively on the pandemic? They couldn’t even order the right vaccines. BS. #auspol
No further comment required.
List of things that the Liberals couldn’t organise:
– a beer in a pub
– an extended beer-drinking session in a brewery
– a “lewd act” in a house of ill repute
– a rock to fall off a cliff
– a two car funeral. Or one car.
– a chook raffle. Admittedly this one is a bit complex, requiring a chook (dead and plucked), tickets and handling cash.
– a vaccine rollout
– bushfire relief
Recorded The World’s most Scenic Railways last night. Now that the scandal is revealed thinks I, I’ll watch it. So I select the recorded program and it plays something I have studiously avoided almost all weekend.
Is it possible to buy a new TV at this time of night?
My TV now has a brick through it…grrrr
Ted Cruz is a “reckless asshole” and Michele Bachmann a “lunatic.”
Conservative pundits like Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh are residents of “Looneyville.”
And Donald Trump, pushing a “bullshit” lie that the election was stolen, incited the “bloody insurrection” on Jan. 6 “for nothing more than selfish reasons.”
In the world according to John Boehner, detailed in his profanity-laced memoir out Tuesday, the former House Speaker is the voice of reason and sanity in a Republican party that has been taken over by “whack jobs” and “insurrectionists” and become unmoored from reality — and its core conservative principles.
Liberal critics and even some GOP allies say they wish Boehner, the son of an Ohio barkeeper who rose to become one of the most powerful figures in Washington, had been open with his views much sooner, when the “crazies” among the Tea Party insurgents first came on the scene or when former President Trump was still in the Oval Office.
B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 9:06 pm
Freddy – From the sounds of it they can manage to get a root in the Parliament House pray room!
That is the problem, wrong location. They only managed 1/2 of the problem.
Re Aqualung @9:21. My TV recording gets stuffed up around the Daylight Saving change, probably for settings made before the change (e.g. for a series) but recorded after it.
Aqualung @ #2819 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 9:21 pm
Isn’t it on 9Now, 10Play, iView or 7Plus?
Theoretically there should be a new Newspoll tonight, amiright?
Probably On Demand C@tmomma.
Steve777 it was set to the right time. I only set it yesterday. It was the content that was the problem. Think RIP.
The programs have lied ever since DS changed over but since the death it’s been hopeless. Never know what to expect.
I hope I’m not going to jinx myself but Lizzie, I have a 14yo Topfield pvr.
In theory it should be able to handle dst but for some reason that setting doesn’t seem to work properly so I go into the settings and adjust the offset to gmt manually.
Only takes a minute.
I’d like to recommend this brand but I think they either got out of our market or that business.
Kevin from Queensland. Still around to give a helping hand:
About time someone questioned Brendon Nelson about his proposed SAS & Afghanistan wing in new War Memorial extensions.
The little runt Howard has a lot to answer for with his jingoistic politicisation of Australia’s war exploits, Nelson being given the task to implement the policy.
The Scottish Parliament is apparently built on the site of a brewery. There were the inevitable stuff-ups and so the obvious joke was that whoever was in change couldn’t organise a Parliament in a Brewery.
Credit should go where it is due and it would seem that in Australia someone at least can organise a Brothel in a Parliament!
[‘Instead, the sources say, Roberts-Smith dug a hole in the backyard of his house in the Sunshine Coast hinterland and buried the USB drives inside a pink plastic children’s lunchbox to hide them from both police and military investigations.’] – SMH
I thought Roberts-Smith was smarter than to conceal damning evidence in his own backyard; everyone knows you hide it at your mother’s place. I feel a notice of discontinuation of his defamation suit is nigh, and charges laid. And what does it say about the character of the man who has been bankrolling him? I’ve always thought that Roberts-Smith is excreta, and the latest expose confirms it. And I wonder if Dutton will still have his back(?).
What? Why not smash them to bits with a hammer, and then burn the bits?
“ I thought Roberts-Smith was smarter than to conceal damning evidence in his own backyard”
Or destroy it all together. Perhaps he likes his little trophies too much. …
And then put the burnt bits in a microwave.
Mexicanbeemer @ 21:59
Thank you for the response. You have proposed two conditions: with award based pay, gender pay disparity will be fixed within a pay cycle! With performance based pay, you say it will be “harder to resolve”. That being your argument, should we be approving of the latter practice?
NB:- when I explained that someone was wrong on the internet and why, my wife said, “Trust men to set the agenda”. I suspect that I am complicit in her disproval.
If you’re lurking, Bucephalus, pray tell the viewer what you think of the conduct of Roberts-Smith personally and the SASR generally.
On receiving the VC this is what he had to say:
“I am so very proud to have taken part in the action with my mates. This award also belongs to them and to the Regiment. To my family, my beautiful wife Emma and our baby girls, Eve and Elizabeth, thank you for your enduring support and encouragement. I think for everyone there including myself what’s going through your mind is you just won’t let your mates down. It’s just like being on a football team, you don’t let your mates down, you go as hard as you can until the game’s won.” – what piffle.
Or at the very least get a friend to hide the evidence or bury it in their yard without them?
Its not that hard to set up an anonymous sim card and buy a phone with fake credentials.
Once you’re online, set up an anonymous, encrypted cloud store.
Stick your incriminating files there. Burn the phone.
Can’t believe this guy was trained by the Army..
Just now I was about half an hour into the episode of Vera that I had recorded the other day when it was interrupted by breaking news of a certain high profile death.
All is not lost for Roberts Smith. I’m sure the WA Liberals are still looking for new candidates at the next election.
As for burying the evidence and not destroying it, well at least nobody can accuse him of being an evil genius.
This reporting does raise a few questions about the completeness of the discovery process at his defamation trial. Where does this program leave the legal process?
Seems to me Roberts-Smith has seriously underestimated the determination of those wanting to bring him to book.
And I also wonder how Mr Stokes will like being gossiped about and having his business slagged by one of his executives.
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 6:04 pm
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 45% (+4)
LAB: 36% (-1)
LDEM: 6% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)
Yes. That’s what happens when parties disqualify themselves from office. Just as UK Labour defaulted, so have the Liberal Party in Western Australia.
First indication of SASR problems was 2 Commando forming view that something was wrong with SASR (apparently only 2 Squadron, as it turns out) and allowing this to become public, which would not normally happen unless there was something very wrong. There was a huge stink when some 22 SAS Sergeant made some untrue comments about SBS and he had to apologise in front of as many 22 SAS and SBS people as could easily be assembled.
SASR 2 Squadron has apparently been acting as if own regiment, perhaps because NCOs (patrol leaders in particular) appear to remain in squadron for career, but obviously does not have regimental supervision (as that is at SASR). The overuse of SASR squadrons by governments of both persuasions also tended to make squadrons take on a distinct regimental identity.
Proposed solution is to have NCOs circulate, between squadrons and also into 2 Commando (I don’t think they can go into the Navy Clearance Diving Branch temporarily as that always causes problems) and this may well solve the problem. It is not entirely clear what they do outside of SOC, though apparently that is planned too. In any event they are typically highly capable, so could for example help in matching procurement to need (SASR unlike most international comparands is for some reason not as well equipped as it should be, particularly in relation to networked warfighting and other technology things – there are oodles of improvement that could be made using technology)
The idea that SASR, 2 Commando, SOC or anyone else outside of 2 squadron was somehow comfortable with what was apparently going on is not the case. The 2 squadron officers don’t appear to have been comfortable with it either, but that means they are incompetent which is grounds for various forms of dismissal.
E. G. Theodore,
There’s another solution.
Set an example and shutter SASR and pour the remainders into 2 CDO, or raise up a new Commando Infantry Battalion like SASR but staff patrols with officers and you know bring back all the fun stuff, saluting, drill, polishing stuff, guard duty.
The other other solution would be to not engage in wars of convince where good men are told to do terrible things for not good reasons.
anyway, it’s going to be very ugly.
Morning all. Turns out Angus Taylor’s gas-fired recovery was a pack of lies. Well colour me shocked! So from now on if the laws of physics and economics tell me one thing and Angus says another I should not believe Angus?
(This is also why I am not very impressed with Labor playing along with this scam. Honest professionals are losing their careers for calling out this outrageous attempted fleecing of taxpayers to prop up an uneconomic plan.)
The Hunter gas hub will never happen. Its time to call for a battery/wind/solar alternative that will employ more jobs to people in the region and deliver cheaper power to NSW businesses, just as it has in SA.
P1 will be so disappointed.