Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March

Big movement to Labor in the smaller states in the latest Newspoll breakdowns, but nothing of what might have been expected on gender.

My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).

The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.

It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.

The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.

Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).

You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”

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  1. Perhaps the quantum computer can help

    Cud Chewersays:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 6:40 pm
    And in other news, the Sydney to Newcastle train is still fucking horribly slow.

  2. Speaking with a broad brush:

    Morrison is pathologically unable to accept responsibility. It is part of his personality disorder.

    It seems to me it’s a pretty constant trait of fundamentalists and religious nutters, where decisions are outsourced to some authority figures.

    These people are living in fear, of just about everything (the basis of bullies and rigid thinkers), and are in horror of exposure, especially to themselves by themselves.

  3. At this stage, what does Morrison (or whomever rolls him) have in the locker for the pandemic? Will he try to announce quarantine free travel by the election date? Latest possible date for a half-Senate and House of Rep election is Saturday 21 May 2022 and that is looking touch and go now. But it would just be an announcement after all…

  4. ItzaDream @ #2751 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 6:49 pm

    Speaking with a broad brush:

    Morrison is pathologically unable to accept responsibility. It is part of his personality disorder.

    It seems to me it’s a pretty constant trait of fundamentalists and religious nutters, where decisions are outsourced to some authority figures.

    These people are living in fear, of just about everything (the basis of bullies and rigid thinkers), and are in horror of exposure, especially to themselves by themselves.

    You’ve nailed Morrison right there.

  5. Hornsby to Broadmeadow used to be 2 hrs on the Flyer in the 60s. Half a century later … 2 hrs. Hornsby used to a country station where you could buy a ‘platform ticket’ to welcome or bid goodbye.

  6. lizzie:

    Kirsten Aiken
    @kirstenaiken
    ·
    1m
    Australia’s PM abandons targets for COVID-19 vaccination rollout.

    “While we would like to see these (first) doses completed before the end of the year, it is not possible to set such targets given the many uncertainties involved.”

    Huh – the uncertainties are in fact far less than when the original targets were issues:
    – production underperformance from AZ-Oxon are now well known (and presumably, understood) whereas they were previously unknown but predictable (should have been understood, but obviously weren’t)
    – production overperformance from PFizer-BionTech is now well known (and presumably, understood) and delivery to Aus is ahead of schedule, whereas previously this was unknown but predictable (should have been understood, but obviously weren’t)
    – safety issues have proven to be minimal, whereas previously this was unknown and unpredictable

    If targets were appropriate previously, they are more so now.

  7. I did suggest a week ago that the kerfuffle over the vaccines would probably last a few months. However, what I didn’t anticipate was Morrison’s and Hunt’s culpable carriage of the matter. I guess a lot will depend on if there are any major clusters and/or whether C.19 variants reach our shores, Morrison now conceding that not all will be vaccinated by the end of the year:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/vaccine-targets-dumped-morrison-concedes-all-australians-may-not-be-vaccinated-by-end-of-the-year-20210411-p57i9m.html

  8. I simply don’t understand how you could possibly have a major project without a plan and without scheduled targets. For a start, how the —— will they know when they’ve finished?

    The plan and the milestones are secret, or the Government is utterly incapable of running a pie stall*, or both.

    * you would need a plan to match the number of pies to the number of customers and to avoid being sued for food poisoning by having a plan to dispose of expired stock

  9. Sunday night down the rabbit hole – I needed a break from it all – hugely irrelevant to the days goings on.

    I’ve stumbled across this German film clip form 1937.

    Zarah Leander was a huge star. It’s beautiful film making with terrific camera work and editing, eg the opening sequence of setting up viewer’s expectations by seeing a rapturous audience first, then the pan as he throws something that leads to her appearance, and wonderful individual characterisations in short takes , the effete gentleman in the top hat, the husbands …

    And, it’s a lovely song, and a beautiful sexy voice.

    In 1937, Hitler was in his fourth year as Führer, the Versailles Treaty well undone, territorial ambitions on the table, and Buchenwald had been established outside Weimar, for the asocials preemptively detained on the basis they might commit a crime.

    And yet …. such loveliness

    https://youtu.be/mBk0QauAbHw

  10. Does this mean that SfM is actually admitting that he’s given up?

    It would seem so. At the very least he’s admitting there is no plan, or none he’s game to make public. He’s probably on the lookout for a big distraction. I expect some Culture War stuff soon.

  11. I’ve been trying to respond to your earlier comment re the Flyer Itzadream but they keep disappearing.

    I’ve fished some of your comments out my spam folder — you should be OK now.

  12. I thought that might have been what happened William.
    I usually just pick my email out of a drop down list. Maybe I did something that changed it.
    Many thanks.

  13. Aqualung @ #2766 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 7:27 pm

    I’ve been trying to respond to your earlier comment re the Flyer Itzadream but they keep disappearing. If this goes the same way I’m going to bed.

    Bring back:

    https://youtu.be/QsV8dDiDWys

    Oh dear. The 3801. Thank so much. Such memories. I was born in Albury, and spent my first 5 years there. Some of my earliest memories are of holding my father’s hand, up the stairs, down the stairs, onto the platform, let’s look at the engine he’d say, walking along, past the carriages, people everywhere, crossing to the royal blue Vic Rail train, steam, noise, luggage carts, whistles, but most of all, my father’s hand.

  14. Itzadream the restoration was way overtime and budget but she looks magnificent. My daughter tried to get tickets for the inaugural run recently without luck but she’s not going into retirement any time soon.

  15. Steve777 says Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 7:14 pm

    I simply don’t understand how you could possibly have a major project without a plan and without scheduled targets. For a start, how the —— will they know when they’ve finished?

    The plan and the milestones are secret, or the Government is utterly incapable of running a pie stall*, or both.

    * you would need a plan to match the number of pies to the number of customers and to avoid being sued for food poisoning by having a plan to dispose of expired stock

    Well at least they’re now being consistent with their climate change policy, where they don’t really have a plan, and refuse to make targets.

  16. C@t

    I’m especially sick of seeing Dr. Paul Kelly.
    The excuse he gives for not having Moderna is “oh but it takes 2 parties to sign a contract”. Which hides the fact that Moderna balked at Australia refusing to sign on to the no fault compensation that the US happily agreed to.

    Fucking bean counters.

  17. Cud, NBN news was only worth watching when Chris Bath was there as a very young reporter who quickly stole the show.

  18. Re bc @8:05 PM.

    Well at least they’re now being consistent with their climate change policy, where they don’t really have a plan, and refuse to make targets.

    There is that.

    I do believe that there is a major difference, however. While I am sure that the Federal Government would actually like to vaccinate the Australian population against Covid, they don’t want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions unless it could be somehow achieved without costs to their mates.

    Mind you, should they somehow accidentally achieve either objective, they’ll claim credit and we’ll never hear the end of their crowing.

  19. Griff

    By the time Scomo announces quarantine free travel, the question is going to be asked, what defense do we really have against the mutant strains?

    Is Scomo going to risk a mutant outbreak? Or is he going to admit to the airlines he stuffed up?

    I just hope the media start asking this question a lot sooner than that.

  20. Ah yes, locomotive 3801, hauling the Newcastle Flyer. I remember it as a kid. We lived in Newcastle for a while (1950s) and sometimes took the Flyer to visit family in Sydney. I remember the big green locomotive with the pointy nose, chooffing, puffing lots of steam. It looked brilliant.

    Sydney to Newcastle, 105 miles in 3 hours. How long would the journey take in the distant future, the year 2000, people might have wondered back then?

    Fast forward to 2021. The journey by rail takes about 3 hours.

  21. ItzaDream says:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 7:54 pm
    Aqualung @ #2781 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 7:51 pm

    Doonside. Near Blacktown.

    Bundanoon:

    https://www.facebook.com/lovely.bundanoon/videos/787519188458558/

    Great footage Itzadream.
    She’s been touring out Junee, Dubbo I think, Wagga Wagga and Albury. Heading back past you to Thirlmere tomorrow. Think the route is via the south and back to the highlands.

    I’ve got holidays soon so I’m hoping to head to the museum. I haven’t been there since they finished the exhibition centre.

    Keep an eye out for 6029, Bayer Garratt. That was a massive restoration.

    Back to the Hindenburg.
    Cheers

  22. Clever.
    “Morrison on his vaccine rollout debacle:

    1. These are the goalposts!

    2. The goalposts have shifted!

    3. The goalpost have shifted again!

    4.Who needs goalposts?!”

  23. Maybe there are goal posts and lines marked on the field, but the location of the goal posts, markings and field are a state secret.

  24. Maybe there are goal posts and lines marked on the field, but the location of the goal posts, markings and field are a state secret.
    +++++++
    And all of the floodlights have been turned off.

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