My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte, who has undermined the alliance while hailing closer ties with Beijing.
This is where a quid pro quo from Biden will come into play. ‘Knock it off, Duterte, if you want our help, or enjoy China swallowing you up.’
DM
All fair points.
It seems to be going out of favour in the NHS but it could be pointed out that the UK had very little private health infrastructure at the time – hence the prevalence of dodgy start-ups.
In Australia the model would be that the Trust (LHD) puts out a tender for 500 hip replacements per year and some one with the expertise gets the job. This would have a couple of advantages – it reduces the private/public divide and breaks up the stifling bureaucracy of megalithic hospitals.
Contracts are not insurmountable as basically after the Rudd/Gillard reforms the LHDs are already doing this – they get a pot of money and targets for what they must achieve. In the most recent version the LHDs lose money if their complications are above an acceptable level
Ven @ #176 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 12:20 pm
Biden is only asking for a fraction of the Corporate Tax Cut back that Trump gave to corporations.
And he’s wedged the Republicans over it to boot.
They keep saying these days that they are for the Working Joe but by objecting to a small corporate tax hike they are proving by their actions they are not.
‘Yabba says:
Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at 12:46 pm
We were using a CFC (methyl bromide) to significantly boost production in our strawberry farm. The rules applied to Australia straight away but not to other countries.
The direct result is that for several years we had to compete against cheap strawberry imports from countries that were allowed to keep using CFCs to boost their strawberry production.
CFC stands for ChloroFluoroHydrocarbon(s), commonly used as refrigerant gases, in refrigerators and air conditioners. Monsanto used to make them in a plant in Rozelle, next to the Iron Cove bridge. Methyl bromide is not a CFC.’
Whoops. It was an ozone depleting gas so limiting the discussion to CFCs misses the point a bit.
https://www.epa.gov/ods-phaseout/methyl-bromide
Showing why he won the covid leadership award 🙂
.
Trudy McIntosh
(@TrudyMcIntosh)
The Health Minister’s Office says the government isn’t planning to provide an updated figure today on how many vaccines have been administered across Australia to date.
@C@t:
“ Lol. ‘Until America gives up’.
Yep, that’s totally going to happen. ”
_______
They say that a picture is worth a thousand words.
These images might Explain – even to you C@t – what is on the board …
https://youtu.be/MBLr7jv3rrs
Since then .. we’ve had America give up on:
Iran
Iraq
The Arab Spring
Afghanistan
But hey, maybe you’re right: ‘This time’ they mean business. If so, I expect the 7th Fleet to kick ass and take names in the Philippines Sea … any day now …
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at 12:38 pm
I think China is angling for a future American administration to admit that its ‘China containment’ policy and associated ‘America first’ trade wars are failures and to simply give up and return to an isolationist stance reminiscent of the Republican Party of the 1930s before it actually makes a move directly against Taiwan.
Until then, it’s a case of prod prod prod on a range of issues – which now includes Australia, thanks to our dickhead-in-chief – until America gives up.
In the meantime, for every ‘freedom of navigation’ exercise, China will reclaim some reef and turn it into another militarised island. Every time Australia sticks it’s head up, or is mentioned in dispatches, we will get a trade whack (to the fulmination but nothing else from ‘the Quad’). Every time someone bleats about democracy Hong Kong will get another whack. When someone talks human rights, the Quigars or Tibetians will get the special sauce.
No one seems to consider that having policies that have better than a snowflake’s chance in hell of being actually effective is as important, in fact more important, as ‘having positions’. Boer: – this is exactly the sort of self indulgent behaviour that you (and moi for that matter) rail against The Greens about.’
But suppose, just suppose a little bit, that the US does not go into full isolationist mode? Let’s just suppose that Biden means it when he says he is willing to use nuclear weapons?
“ Biden is only asking for a fraction of the Corporate Tax Cut back that Trump gave to corporations.”
He’s not actually. The second part of his proposals – the important part – puts a floor under the among that companies can minimise tax below the headline rate.
poroti @ #203 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 1:26 pm
That bad, huh? 😯
Andrew_Earlwood @ #206 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 1:28 pm
That too. Plus his genius move on offshoring to tax havens.
Moving on to more substantive issues, Jill Biden steps out in ‘fish-net’ stockings and a skirt above her knees, to mixed reviews:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-9437787/Jill-Bidens-patterned-tights-spark-furious-controversy-online.html
And if you want to find out ALL about it, go hard here:
https://taxfoundation.org/joe-biden-tax-plan-2020/
“ But suppose, just suppose a little bit, that the US does not go into full isolationist mode? Let’s just suppose that Biden means it when he says he is willing to use nuclear weapons?”
Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Götterdämmerung. Or Dr Strangelove. Take your pick. Right now feels a lot like the period of geopolitical bluff circa 1946-1962, doesn’t it?
That does beg the question though, why on earth would our dickhead-in-chief volunteer us for frontline service if a potential nuclear shootout is on the board?
Besides, my isolationist point was more directed to the possible policies of future administrations, given just how seemingly embedded Trumpian popularism is in American political culture. That has to be on the board of possibilities as well, surely.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #206 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 1:26 pm
You’ve long ago given in to China, so I guess you’re the expert.
C@T
A lot will depend on how the ALP performs but i’m starting to think Morrison is laying the seeds for the Liberals to be in opposition for a long time because relying on working class men isn’t sustainable for the Liberals. I know i tell Guytaur that the political cycle turns but the Republicans look to be in a far better shape than the Liberal Party looks.
“ You’ve long ago given in to China, so I guess you’re the expert.”
China is not our natural enemy. It’s your war shilling for ‘Merica that makes it so. In simpatico with RWNJs like Eric Abetz, Greg Sheridan and Andre Hastie. Take a bow, C@t momma. That’s some company you are keeping right there.
Actually, the canard about ‘giving up on’ Iraq, is a duck that won’t fly. I would have thought that a seemingly highly intelligent man like you, Earlwood, could even realise that Iraq as it is now is infinitely more preferable to an Iraq continuing under the Husseins, Saddam, then Uday and Husay.
As for Afghanistan, well after Trump was prepared to give up on just about every foreign affairs issue, and cute of you Earlwood to leave his name out of it in your smug assessment of American complacency, now that the Biden Administration has taken control of the negotiations with the Taliban and others, I don’t expect to see Afghanistan ‘given up on’ either.
Ditto for any other foreign policy nightmare Trump left behind. But you go on making your apologia for China, Earlwood. It’s just not the best of looks though.
China is not our natural enemy.
By their recent actions they sure as hell are now. Don’t you agree?
It’s your war shilling for ‘Merica that makes it so.
And it’s your kowtowing to an overtly aggressive China that is embarrassing.
And frankly, playing nice with China, or ‘war shilling’ as you misleadingly and colourfully are trying to paint it, is not going to cut it any more. They’ll take you for a rube every time.
Jeez, next thing you know you’ll be making apologies for Putin’s provocative incursion into the Ukraine next!
For those on a China bash, it is interesting to note that Taiwanese Chinese come and go to places like Shanghai. Some of the kids from Taiwan attend school in China. While one could only guess what the Chinese might actually do to ensure Taiwan toes the Bejing line, I doubt it would be all out invasion/war. Even the Chinese dictatorship has too much to lose on this one. However, the Chinese are in it for the long game…..There is no harm in us calling the Chinese government for what it is………a one party, one-man dictatorship but that does not mean we have to go round trying to punch them on the nose.
The Chinese value – at the moment – social cohesion at all cost………and if that means crushing a minority they will do so………..
Moscow Mitch takes aim at corporate America for daring to criticise voter suppression laws:
[‘“At the end of the day the decision was made and we all move forward but I want to stress for me personally it doesn’t take away from the admiration and respect I have for Malcolm Turnbull, that will be everlasting,” Ms Berejiklian said.’]
Berejiklian is being disingenuous. My guess is, Morrison said no and she followed orders – payback for Turnbull rocking the Tory boat.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/deserves-our-collective-respect-berejiklian-s-staunch-support-of-turnbull-20210406-p57gus.html
Mexicanbeemer @ #215 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 1:42 pm
MB,
To my eyes the Republicans are starting to come apart at the seams. Well the Retrumplican wing of the party is. They are thrashing about like fish out of water without their spiritual leader in power. And the smarter Republicans who are trying to get back to old Republican saws as they attempt to criticise Biden are falling flat on their faces as they trip over their hypocrisy when compared with the Trump years and what they let happen under him.
They keep saying they will win the House and Senate back in ’22 but I think that’s just wishful thinking.
Lara Von Trier
Anthony Albanese is not letting this incompetence from Morrison and his cronies go
Anthony Albanese
@AlboMP
·
1h
Scott Morrison promised we’d be at 4 million vaccinations by now.
We’re not even at 1 million.
C@t
FMD. You really have drunk the Sheridan Kool- aid. How many 100 thousand dead is it ? How many millions lives fucked by the sectarianism unleashed ? How’s it going for women there now that so much religious nuttery is now ‘in style’ ? How much of the death and destruction and the rise of the ‘head coppers’ spilled over the borders ? Yeah everyone so much better off.
citizen,
You know why McConnell is doing that?
It’s the new, we are no longer the party of the corporations, we are the party of the working joes of America, turnaround. So they are going to eschew corporate donations for small money donations from individuals and ramp up the criticisms of corporations and try to now link the Democrats as being in the pocket of the big corporations.
It’s all based upon a memo this guy called Jim Banks wrote where he outlines what the future should be for the Republicans in the Post Trump era. Basically, it’s Trumpy:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2021/03/31/house-gop-memo-argues-for-embrace-of-trump-coalition-some-republicans-find-distasteful/
But it’s only going to see them get tied up in all sorts of knots in reality.
“ I would have thought that a seemingly highly intelligent man like you, Earlwood, could even realise that Iraq as it is now is infinitely more preferable to an Iraq continuing under the Husseins, Saddam, then Uday and Husay.”
Might I interest in a bridge. Harbour views and all. All the conveniences. Very reasonably priced.
poroti @ #226 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 1:54 pm
Old news dressed up as current commentary. Show me where the people of Iraq are dissatisfied with their current circumstances?
Where’s the ‘head chopping’ going on today?
And this puerile ad hominen lumping me in the same basket as Greg Sheridan is just very thin gruel indeed.
What a surprise!!The Libs are incompetent yet again at the vaccine rollout.What arent they totally incompetent at? A complete 2nd rate govt with no talent,no vision, no prospects. The punters need to wake up and give this lot the boot.We have already had a decade of waste.
How Smoko gets 58% PPM is beyond me. He couldnt run piss up in a brewery.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #228 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 2:02 pm
For a lawyer, you’re not very good at presenting evidence to rebut the argument. Just smarm. Oh well, I guess you haven’t got one. 🙂
C@t: can I suggest that you write out a little chronology of who said what, and who did what to whom, vis-a-vis China and Australia. Starting in about 2015.
If you did that, and were honest with yourself, you’d realise that we (ScoMo and co) brought about all of the deterioration of the relationship. That is not to say that China has no agency here. Obviously they do. But we started it, and can hardly complain if and when they finish it -or finish us. While you are at it, you’d realise that our actions were in direct response to the Americans sticking their nose in to our relationship and ‘suggesting’ we toe the line. Which idiot Turnbull, Morrison etc etc were more than happy to do because they thought there’d be some good domestic political points to score, vis ‘Shanghai Sam’ …
@SwannyQLD tweets
Bernard Keane on fire
”The govt submission to the Fair Work review symbolises everything that is sneaky, visionless and economically ignorant about this government. It makes a mockery of the government’s recent pretence of focusing on women.”@crikey_news
Only anecdotal, but a relative – female in mid 60s – my guess is generally a Liberal voter. Lives in Brisbane. Absolutely disgusted that Laming is still in Parliament.
If Labor play their cards well, this type of voter could turn things in Labor’s favour at the election.
I also think Scomo is on the nose inside his party. He would be walking around with a very tight sphincter at the moment.
I am enjoying having Jacinda Ardern on my screen telling me international travel is a go in 2 weeks.
To think we had a Prime Minister like this in Julia Gillard.
Bob Hawke etc.
You and poroti may like to read this 🙂
https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/08/current-situation-iraq
But hey, ‘head choppers’ and ‘have I got a bridge to sell you!’, will put this woman in her place, eh?
OC
That’s happening in SA. The RAH has about 120 plastics patients they will never get to (in this tender mainly breast reductions etc) and a private hospital won the tender. The private hospital then has get surgeons, anaesthetists and nurses etc to staff theatre and the wards.
Most surgeons have declined as it’s just not worth the hassle and risk.
It worked better for a bunch of 100 cataracts in a day surgery.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/06/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-january-to-march/comment-page-5/#comment-3587142
The CCP, as a strongly non-democratic monopoly political force in charge of an upwardly mobile country that is the world`s second most powerful country, is the current biggest threat to democracy. That would be true whichever country they were in charge of.
C@t: can I suggest that you write out a little chronology of who said what, and who did what to whom, vis-a-vis China and Australia. Starting in about 2015.
No, because it’s not about our Trade relationship with China, nor who said what and when. It’s about playing nice with China had seen us being taken for fools for long enough and it had to stop.
I am not peddling any apologia for China C@t.
What I am saying that Australia should act in its own self interest at all times. When two superpowers start the tango in your backyard, that’s the only sane position to take.
Your indulgences, in simpatico with the RWNJ shills, is an existential threat to our future.
I’d rather that my grandchildren existed in a state other than nuclear ash.
@developerjack tweets
Omg listening to Jacinda’s press conference and … I only heard women in the press gallery. Like. Wow. How different is that!
________________
Maybe Albanese should find a way to be on a unity ticket to compare to Morrison during the campaign
AE
I disagree with BW’s sinophobic way of expressing it.
However be in no doubt. As a country we have chosen our alliance partners of the West over trade with China.
It’s where we are and Obama started it and Julia Gillard joined him in Darwin setting up the base.
citizen @ #219 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 1:51 pm
Free speech is great provided it’s only supportive of conservatives.
Saw someone point out a twist in the Aus-NZ bubble. It will increase the risk from covid. How ? The quarantine spots in each country currently taken by nice safe NZ+Aus travelers will be taken by travelers from countries with much higher covid risks.
@cheryl_kernot tweets
Listening to Jacinda Ardern. No bluster, no need to say they’re the best at everything. Just clear useful explanation. And reinforcement of basis of their decision making & safety measures in place. #covid #auspol
Andrew_Earlwood @ #239 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 2:17 pm
This upcoming confrontation is not going to allow Australia to be the Switzerland of the South Pacific. A side will have to be taken and China won’t care about your grandchildren but America will.
And enough with the facile rhetoric like: ‘Your indulgences, in simpatico with the RWNJ shills’. I thought you were better than that.
I’m simply calling it how I see it. It’s called not following any particular party’s line, if necessary under the circumstances.
“ No, because it’s not about our Trade relationship with China, nor who said what and when. It’s about playing nice with China had seen us being taken for fools for long enough and it had to stop.”
I’ve never said that this was about our trade relationship. On the contrary I have been crystal clear what is at stake here.
What a dangerous fool you are. We are not China’s enemies. We may not like their treatment of the quigars, Tibetan’s, Hong Kong democrats activists, KMT diaspora etc etc, but that doesn’t make them our enemy.
We have gone out of our way to make them our enemy at the behest of America, because America perceives them to be the enemy of American hegemony. And for no other reason. This is madness. Sheer and utter madness for us to buy into that.
😆 😆 😆
Danama papers
just catching up on your post from this morning.
It’s a good strategy to binge watch shows during the trial period. Lol!
Agreed. Gangs of London is by far the most violent TV show ever. I found it difficult
to watch at times. Was almost too much for other half too, and that is saying something!
Ouch. I think Jacinda Ardern just said she called state premiers before notifying Morrison about date of resumption of travel.
“ This upcoming confrontation is not going to allow Australia to be the Switzerland of the South Pacific.”
Not now, you dolt. What an own goal.
Those of us with half a brain or more will grasp that the last 4 years of blunder after blunder comprise the most horrific set of foreign policy missteps since federation. A catastrophe in the making.
By contrast, staying within the lanes we carved out for us via APEC, G20, the UN, etc and by being reliable and consist – WOULD have seen us positioned as very much the ‘Switzerland of the South Pacific’. Only better- as we would have real agency as an honest broker and mediator.
Fuck. Me. Dead.