My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
The media have misread this big time…
‘ The BBC has set up a specialist complaints page after being inundated with criticism over its coverage of Prince Philip’s death.
The corporation pulled the entirety of BBC One and BBC Two’s scheduled line-up on Friday (9 April) following the announcement that the Duke of Edinburgh, 99, had died.
It also pulled advertising from BBC-owned channels, largely halted upbeat music on the station’s radio services in favour of repeated news bulletins, and suspended all programming on BBC Four. The latter instead broadcast hours of a blank screen urging viewers to “switch to BBC One for a major news report”.
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/bbc-prince-philip-death-complaints-b1829496.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1618050307
Like others I found the saturation news coverage of Mr Battenburg’s death completely over the top and out of all proportion to his significance in Australian life. Philip had his virtues (genuine care for the environment and loyal to the Queen) and also his vices (numerous examples of racist statements).
Yet he is the British equivalent of the US First Lady – he has no constitutional role, and no real possibility of inheriting one given the line of succession via Charles, Andrew etc. So why the focus?
And what of his “extraordinary life” and “contribution to (this?) nation”? He lived a long time, benefitting from a comfortable life with excellent medical care. Despite the talk of “contribution” most of the archival footage is of him shaking hands on visits and otherwise hunting, fishing, riding and sailing.
To me the real story is the collective sigh of relief of cash strapped free to air TV producers who can fill in viewing hours with free stock footage. I’d bet if you checked Netflix or anything that generates revenue the coverage would be far less. The conservative ones get the added bonus of having something to take the place of reporting Liberal Party sex scandals and a botched vaccine rollout.
No wonder Morrison is standing in that photo smiling smugly. You would have to iron the smile off his face. A nice media spot with no risk of any embarrassing questions. Probably his most painless day in the job since January. He must have cheered when he heard the news on Philip.
rhwombat,
🙂
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/06/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-january-to-march/comment-page-47/#comment-3589530
He did actually have a constitutional role:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counsellor_of_State
That’s unfair, Operation Forth Bridge has been 50+ years in the making … and MSM are going to milk every moment of it.
Get with the program, hipsters! 😛
I’m also weary of the ‘Phil the Greek’ show. I’m bored.
Most tedious of all is the horde of ‘royal commentators’ that has hit mouse plague proportions. What do these nitwits do when there’s not a royal wedding/death/scandal to blather about?
Tom
As that article points out, appointment as a Counsellor of State is not automatic, and that article lists Philip as ELIGIBLE to be a Counsellor. He never was appointed one. Whereas Charles and Andrew are.
In short, Philip never performed any royal duties other than being consort to the Queen. The possibility of him doing so never arose.
What I really want to know is who now becomes Public Enemy Number One in Citizens Electoral Council/LaRouchite land.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-10/nsw-coroner-and-luna-park-inquiry/100061180
But can it tell us more that what we know – Abe Saffron was a crook and policing in NSW in the 1970s was awful
Floating roost trial: 2 years on!
http://geum.birdlife.org.au/floating-roost-trial
Some of you need to chill the F out a bit! Of course, Philip’s death is going to hog the news cycle for a few days. Then it will go away. They will have a funeral and that will be that. You will get the odd news story after that about something being renamed after him or a statue unveiling but that’s it. You’re all acting like this is just going to be the running story of 2021.
And calm down with the “Morrison’s fortunes have increased because right now the media aren’t talking about his failures.” If Labor’s position is that fragile that a big story running for a few days can destroy all momentum they have, they weren’t in a good position anyway.
Just ride this storm, ignore the noise and before you know it, everything will be back to it was before.
I also want to know how that cargo cult that thinks Philip is divine is reacting.
Bucephalus:
My GP is giving me the “flu vaccine, which as of about five years ago is known to be effective for cancer patients and require only an extra 15-30 minutes for monitoring (as the AEs are almost all in that period). This is done in a way that is consistent with medical ethics related to knowledge of patient, knowledge of medicines used and monitoring for AEs
She is not able to give me the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine as there is no GP access to it (notwithstanding it has recently been shown that the cold chain requirements are much less stringent than first thought). She cannot ethically give me the AZ-Oxon vaccine as my oncologist has formed the view that Pfizer-BionTech is required, not due to the blood clot risk (which is negligible) but instead due to:
– evidence emerging in that solid tumour patients are not protected until second dose of even (the most efficacious vaccine) Pfizer-BionTech (this suggests AZ-Oxon additionally problematic, as in addition to it being less effective there is currently no way in Australia to provide second dose of AZ-Oxon after less than 12 weeks). It is of course possible that AZ-Oxon is more effective than Pfizer-BionTech in cancer patients, but there is no evidence supporting this and it is very unlikely since mRNA technology has mostly been developed with oncology targets
– there is no evidence that solid tumor patients (or any cancer patients, with haematological patients being the worst placed cohort) benefit from AZ-Oxon even after second dose (Pfizer-BionTech in solid tumor patients is 40% after first dose, 90% after second dose). The main reasons for lack of such evidences are: cancer patients were exclude from phase 3 trial in order to make the number look better; ii) Australia is one of very few nations that doses cancer patients with AZ-Oxon, most others either don’t use AZ-Oxon at all, or always use an alternative since that is the correct thing to do
And my oncologist (who is both the only doctor actually in position to monitor for AEs peaking at 4 days after dosing and doctor best positioned to discriminate AEs from various sources) can’t give me anything as he has no access to either vaccine.
The completely over the top carry-on has been manufactured by the government to deflect from total incompetence in assessing the AZ-Oxon production capability. See:
– https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccines
and note:
– Pfizer-BionTech has consistently supplied ahead of schedule (now 870k cf 560k originally expected)
– AZ-Oxon imported has delivered 700k from overseas (cf 1.2 M expected) with not more to come
– AZ-Oxon local (i.e. CSL) has delivered 1.2M (cf 3.0M projected at this time) and at rate of 500k/week (cf. 1m/week originally) with not anticipated rise in that rate
Both my wife’s and my GP’s have both recommended receiving the A-Z vaccinations. They both advised that the predominant risk is in not receiving the vaccinations.
Much of this seems to be about politics and a frenzied media.
But if I’m not with you in about 3 weeks the GP’s will be wrong in their advice.
davidwh @ #2313 Saturday, April 10th, 2021 – 9:38 pm
Morrison says its up to Australians.
He is really saying FU.
Noice..
Have you made a video tape yet davidwh ?
“If you are watching this tape, whatever you do don’t…”
Dave I guess he is correct if somewhat unsympathetic in putting it that way. All we can do is weigh up the information and risks and make a personal choice about whether to get the jab or not.
Everything else is just noise.
Aqualung no, no one would be interested. 🙂
The sharkies had an Engadine maccas moment tonight.
I’m amused that a day later, the self-righteous echo chamber of PB still can’t comprehend the outpouring of sympathy for the Queen and Prince Philip.
Is it that hard to understand that not everyone thinks a tokenistic change to being a Republic is of any importance?
I would much rather have the Queen as our Head of State than a Trump, Putin, Duterte or Bolsonaro.
Well the antigen presenting dendritic cells final broke the cancer killing CD8+ T cells run of championships by the very narrow margin 50.2% to 49.8%
– https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2011/10/new-nobelist-used-his-discovery-battle-his-cancer
Provenge (DC therapeutic vaccine) was the first (and perhaps still the only) therapeutic vaccine approved for any cancer (prostate in that case) but has not been a commercial success (partly because various other things in the meantime have improved treatment for prostate cancer). DCs are the top down organizers, but local action may be more important.
Therapeutic vaccines often provide some (small) benefit as monotherapy (probably in concert with patient having strong immune system and exercise in support of this), but may do much more in concert with something else (e.g. limited dose cytotoxic therapy confined to a pro-immune phase and/or checkpoint inhibitors and/or VEGF inhibitors):
– vaccine labels the cancer cell as a baddy
– cytotoxic agent temporarily boosts immune response (then does opposite)
– checkpoint inhibitor removes the breaks on killer cells
– certain VEGF inhibitors such as bevacizumab and regorafenib appear to have a strange tertiary benefit which perhaps aids T-Cell infiltration in tumours (regorafenib by itself, bevacizumab apparent needs to operate in convert with an appropriate cytotoxic agent)
Very hard to trial, hence very difficult to find a business model (TG02 vaccine for which I was first human to be dosed is suspended commercially due to this problem in the business model)
Has beowar been dumping on USA Today when they invaded Indian waters?
Time to play this over the MCG tannoy
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=my+city+of+sydney&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-au&client=safari
The Duke Dies story is a vivid example of the role and nature of celebrity, which is one of the most widely exchanged/produced/consumed/curated commodities of the era. Celebrity is as universal and as evaporative as the dew. It’s everywhere and then it’s really not there at all. The most frequent manifestation of celebrity is simply as an idea or as a metaphor.
Perhaps it shows that the idea of some things is more important than their substance. Plato had something to say about that. I think that certainly applies to the Royals. The Duke may be dead or he might not. Did the Duke ever actually exist? What was the form and content of his existence? What is the existential weight of a Royal?
Yeah because if there’s one thing monarchist systems are known for, it’s the lack of tyrants.
Given C.19 restrictions only 30 can attend Philip’s funeral. These are the most likely mourners:
[‘The Queen
Prince Charles
Camilla
Princess Anne
Vice Admiral Timothy Laurence
Prince Andrew
Sarah Ferguson
Edward, Earl of Wessex
Sophie, Countess of Wessex
Prince William
Kate Middleton
Prince George
Princess Charlotte
Prince Louis
Prince Harry
Peter Phillips
Zara Tindall
Mike Tindall
Princess Beatrice
Edoardo Mapelli Mozzi
Princess Eugenie
Jack Brooksbank
Lady Louise Windsor
James, Viscount Severn
Edward, Duke of Kent
Katherine, Duchess of Kent
Princess Alexandra
Prince Michael of Kent
Boris Johnson
Admiral Tony Radakin’]
My greatest interest in the funeral is whether Boris will comb his hair. I have always been a fan of English eccentricity but I think Boris is a failure.
Celebrity has replaced the Deity, perhaps. It’s hard for me to know. I’ve always been allergic to Deism. I’m immune to celebrity too. Bored, really. Very bored by it. I was bored by the Duke Dying as soon as I read about it. Good grief they are really very boring, if they exist at all. They are chameleon-like, I suppose. They would have to be if they were real.
Did USA Today invade India? Damn their odd-shaped newsprint pages!
A quiet, effective expert and a noisy non-expert
Allen Cheng
@peripatetical
Hi
@bruce_haigh
– I can’t help with the politics, but I might be able to help with the maths.
Quote Tweet
Bruce Haigh
@bruce_haigh
· Apr 9
#auspol I am 75. I have no trouble making decisions. However to do so I need information. I am due to get AV on 14 April. Overnight 20m Pfizer. My sensor tells me something sus about AV, pushed by LNP, but fingers in the pie. My time in the army tells me to stand back. Thoughts?
His Royal Highness The Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh was gazetted as a British Prince as below:
However the Telegraph (who might claim to be knowledgeable on such matters) has
ignored the gazetting and has him as HRH Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh:
– https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/duke-of-edinburgh-obituary/
Error is still up, as of now.
Likewise Mr Abbott has ignored the 1957 gazetting completely, and has used his pre-1957 title:
– https://twitter.com/HonTonyAbbott/status/1380494574330671107
I am not actually opposed to continuation of the monarchy, but it is embarrassing thus to be in the company of these ignoramuses.
Well for the newer generations, that veneration will switch to YouTubers, Twitch streamers and other content creators, whom they are able to both put on a pedestal and form a very strong parasocial relationship with.
Bruce Haigh Twitter on 31 Dec re Northern Beaches cluster.
Hello NSW and Australia. You are watching a catastrophe unfold in NSW due to the Premiers compliance with pressure from Morrison, RW idealogues including the IPA, and greedy big business. The people of NSW are guinea pigs to this potent mix. Criminal.
As far as I know, he still hasn’t apologised
(Ir)Rational Leftist,
You regard the Queen as a tyrant, or expect Charles, William or any of their descendants to be tyrants?
Mavis @ #2325 Saturday, April 10th, 2021 – 10:09 pm
A fascinating list. Did you compile it or is it from a tabloid? Kate Middleton hasn’t been Kate Middleton for years.
I notice you don’t call the Duchess of Kent Katherine Worsley. And Sarah Ferguson? Really?
Why include some rather young children yet leave out the Duke and Duchess of Gloucester?
What is it with monarchists and tedious straw man arguments?
The premise that the only thing that stands in the way of tyranny is a monarch on the other side of the world is laughable. You monarchists seem to believe that the Queen is ready to say “Stop that now!” if a right wing populist with fascist tendencies comes along and dismiss their government. Heck, a constitutional monarchy in Italy wasn’t enough to prevent Fascism there (and no “Their system was different” special pleading isn’t a valid rebuttal, so let’s save everybody’s time and forgo that line of argument.)
Of course, the only thing that has stopped Australia from becoming a fascist state, besides the lack of support for it among the public, the constitutional law explicitly mandating regular free, open and fair elections, the judiciary that has a strong history of defending that, the general dislike of politicians, international pressure etc. is a hypothetical, never-demonstrated willingness of the monarch to step in and kick said government out.
You used Trump as an example of how republics are bad. Well that same system booted him out at the next opportunity. His fascist leanings were also successfully resisted by the country’s institutions as well because they didn’t cling to the belief an unelected nonagenarian will swoop in and save them from themselves. Duterte is crap but he is also constitutionally prevented from running for another term. Again, a constitutional measure born out of a perceived necessity to prevent tyrants because they knew they didn’t have the option of burying their heads in the sand and pretending that Granny Liz will save them and give them a hot chocolate and their favourite teddy bear if things go awry.
Yeah yeah, Putin is a leader in a republic. You got me there. Republicanism isn’t always perfect and sometimes bad people can take advantage of a system. Never happens in Constitutional monarchies (see Mussolini). I’m sure Putin would be powerless if there was a wealthy foreign elderly lady on the back of Russia’s coins who can vanquish him out and then gently sing lullabies to the Russians before they fall asleep but alas no. Anyway, enough with the Nirvana Fallacy here.
Just admit it’s a sentimental attachment you have to the crown and quit with this “it’s a constitutional necessity” nonsense. Plenty of republics do fine because stability and resistance to tyranny doesn’t rest solely on whether there being a monarchy.
DB Cooper says:
Saturday, April 10, 2021 at 9:56 pm
……..
“I would much rather have the Queen as our Head of State than a Trump, Putin, Duterte or Bolsonaro”
Hopefully those aren’t the only alternatives.
davidwh:
No – if the advice is correct now (as it likely is, in your case) then it will still have been right even if you turn purple and explode (and someone in 2035 finally works out it was “davidwh” syndrome, due to AZ-Oxon vaccination ), let alone if some less spectacular AE occurs. All that will have happened is that you were either ridiculously unlucky (if the first victim of “davidwh” syndrome, but at least you get an eponymous memorial) or extremely unlucky (known rare AZ-Oxon side effects)
The actual problems are:
– the Government needs to reduce demand for AZ-Oxon as it’s now likely that supply is going to be inadequate, and for political reasons they are looking for a scapegoat (hence blame rare AZ-Oxon side effects magnified out of proportion) rather than just fessing up (which would actually strengthen their political reputation, but was not the option taken due to their political advisors being idiots)
– the side effect of the Government approach great impetus to the Anti-Vaxxers and may cost thousand of lives (and is far more likely to do so than the clotting issue, which might kill 20 people across the population)
– certain patients on various treatments and with particular histories are medically indicated against AZ-Oxon and thus towards Pfizer-BionTech but there is no straightforward mechanism for such patients to access Pfizer-BionTech
– patients with haematological malignancies (and lung cancer) are strongly indicated towards something with a short inter-dose period (either Pfizer-BionTech with a two week gap or perhaps AZ-Oxon with minimal gap, perhaps three weeks)
– there is no evidence that patients with haematological malignancies or solid tumours are protected even after the second dose of AZ-Oxon
– there is evidence that patients with solid tumours are protected after the second dose of Pfizer-BionTech, and this is the only evidence of efficacy (90%+) in cancer patients (it is likely that the data will mature so as to show some efficacy after second dose in patients with haematological malignancies)
– there are also patients weakly indicated the other way, for example patients with an allergic reaction to Pegfilgrastim (which is used in cancer therapy), or perhaps anything pegylated, since both Pfizer-BionTech and Moderna have some sort of PEG involvement – see for example https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmra2035343 for discussion of this low risk AE potential, such patients may be better off with AZ-Oxon (but if cancer patients should get a shorter inter-dose interval, measurement of immune activation after both doses, and perhaps three doses in total)
I also note the list of “Republics bad” leaders are all leaders of countries where the President, not a parliamentary leader is the head of government, whereas an Australian republic would most definitely be parliamentary, as it is now. Monarchist cherry-picking at its best.
I reckon we should get Prince Harry as HM King of Australia, since he’s obviously surplus to requirements and if we have a King then we should have a resident King. However it looks like Canada has first dibs.
Whoever wrote this needs to consult a dictionary: deism vs theism. Many of the US Founding Fathers were deists, rather than conventional theists, and the difference is significant
I was of the view that monarchs do not attend funerals. Up until the 20th century at any rate.
DB Cooper @ #2316 Saturday, April 10th, 2021 – 9:56 pm
Sure, for the current queen. Any competent and humane person is a better option than those trainwrecks.
But at least with an elected head of state you can kick them out at the next election cycle if you get a shitty one. Get a shitty monarch and you’re basically stuck with it or forced into committing regicide. Would rather have the option to remove bad leaders peacefully.
Churchill Sings the Best of Queen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XB3qNG97qhs
(With Clem Attlee on spoons.)
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/06/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-january-to-march/comment-page-47/#comment-3589578
That is unfair to the monarchist argument you are trying to rebut. The argument was certainly not that it is the only thing, only that it helps. Dismissal is also not the only way for constitutional monarchy to help democracy. Denial of the position of head of state to fascists and a resulting increased likelihood of mostly accepted transition if they loose an election is another way. Mussolini was deposed, allowing an Italian surrender, by the King and Fascist Grand Council. Had he been president, he would likely have been harder to depose.
I should make it clear: I don’t have a problem with the Queen herself and I am sure Charles/George VII will do a reasonable job, as will William etc. I oppose the institution itself, not the people within it.
Tom, I know what argument I was rebutting. Your nitpick is noted.
E. G. Theodore says:
Saturday, April 10, 2021 at 11:38 pm
Celebrity has replaced the Deity, perhaps. It’s hard for me to know. I’ve always been allergic to Deism.
Whoever wrote this needs to consult a dictionary: deism vs theism. Many of the US Founding Fathers were deists, rather than conventional theists, and the difference is significant
The difference is sophist and semantic. For clarity, I’m allergic to both deism and theism.
Mexicanbeemer says Saturday, April 10, 2021 at 6:42 pm
There were several days of coverage, at least on the ABC. This included the initial accident, the ongoing search for survivors and the charging and bailing of the person running the construction site containing the truck that likely caused the accident.
Sprocket_
The BBC looks like its taken the chance to practice how things go when the Queen dies because everything will stop but that might only be the U.K.