Essential Research has seized the day in its latest fortnightly survey with new personal ratings for Scott Morrison, in addition to its normal montly reading (together with Anthony Albanese’s and the preferred prime minister rating) which came in the last poll. The results are broadly similar to Newspoll’s in finding Morrison down five on approval to 57% and up six on disapproval to 35%.
However, the real kicker is the accompanying gender breakdowns, which have Morrison steady at 65% approval and up two on disapproval to 30% among men, but down ten on approval to 49% and up ten on disapproval to 40% among women. This 16% gender gap on prime ministerial approval is twice as big as the Newspoll record from 1996 to the present, which came when Tony Abbott scored 42% among men and 34% among women in January-March 2014 (the biggest the other way was when Julia Gillard scored 38% among women and 31% among men in April-June 2011).
Further questions from the survey continue on this theme: presented with five propositions as to why there are fewer women than men in parliament, the most popular was that “political parties do not do enough to ensure gender equality in their organisations”, with which 63% agreed. Forty-eight per cent indicated support for gender quotas, with 36% opposed. Variations by party support were in the directions you would expect, but were not of great magnitude.
On other fronts, the poll finds respondents taking a mostly positive view of the causalisation of the workforce: while they were most likely to believe it was good for employers, at 65% versus 11% for bad, 46% felt it had been good for the economy, 42% for indivdual workers and 41% for the nation, compared with respective bad ratings of 19%, 29% and 26%. However, 84% expressed support for the right of workers to convert from casual to permanent employment after six months, with only 10% opposed, and 80% felt gig-based workers with regular hours should be recognised with permanent employment, with only 8% opposed.
For good measure, the poll finds 48% supportive for a republic and 28% opposed, although the question emphasises “a republic with an Australian head of state”, which tends to encourage a positive result. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
Interesting, NZ First campaigned for a minimum wage rise in 2017. The other party who also did this… The Greens.
Carla Lockhart or Gavin Robinson seem to be the future OC.
The demographics otherwise look like the Federal ALP.
guytaur says:
Sunday, April 4, 2021 at 12:08 pm
@joshuaPotash tweets
One of capitalism’s most brilliant moves is convincing people that our comfort, and even our most basic needs, shouldn’t be guaranteed.
———————-
That tweet suggests he doesn’t understand capitalism because it has been the government not capital that says things can’t be guaranteed.
Capital is just the sum of the resources a person controls.
c@t,
That’s a good point too. You only have to look to the US to see that raising the minimum wage is immensely popular with Republican voters. Not the Republican Party though.
Barney,
Yep that is probably the main point. 😆
Greg Hunt praising the virtues of Murphy (“R U Aust of the Year”) in fighting the pandemic.
Very disheartening.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1903 Sunday, April 4th, 2021 – 1:22 pm
I agree but it depends. In many circles the definition of Capitalism has it as both an economic and political system. One can argue then that Capitalism is a free market system based on prizing individual property rights over the commons or societal benefits and at the other end of the spectrum to a command economy. Attempts to regulate and control capitalism are therefore not capitalism.
Nicholas says:
Sunday, April 4, 2021 at 12:30 pm
An earlier Poster suggested that voters make a conscience decision to elect opposite parties at State & Federal levels.
I think the difference is that voters strongly associate their state government with public hospitals and public schools, which they inherently trust Labor to manage better than conservatives. Voters strongly associate the federal government with “the economy” in an uninformed, narrow sense of keeping government spending at an arbitrarily low level so that “the government doesn’t run out of money”, and keeping wages low and workers’ rights weak because these are seen as necessary sacrifices at the altar of “the economy”. Labor hasn’t contested that false narrative thoroughly and consistently; instead they choose to accept the false premises and compete on terms that favour conservatives. That is why they lose most federal elections.
————————————
The first part is right but when it comes to the federal government and the economy that isn’t because people want less spending but they want better spending but more importantly they want to benefit from that spending and they want to get ahead financially without paying more in taxes.
The ALP’s mistake is to believe it needed new taxes to fund its policies instead of saying the federal government has greater flexibility and the other problem is the actual policies were poorly designed like wage policy where the best the ALP could do was offer child care workers a payrise then it couldn’t explain how anyone else would get a payrise.
‘poroti says:
Sunday, April 4, 2021 at 11:45 am
Message to the laydeez from the Rupertarium, (LNP-Head Office). STFU and stop ya whinging , you’ve never had it so good.
.
To be righteous is one thing, to be right another
Working women are better off than ever, but the tantrums are exceeding the traumas.
……..As the traditional Australian virtues of stoicism, and a laconic, somewhat disabused, realism, have given way to the glorification of uninhibited emotions, the nation’s capacity to distinguish tantrums from traumas seems to have completely disappeared.
And with it has vanished the capacity to distinguish sanctimonious grandstanding from serious consideration of the difficult questions — including those related to sexual assault………
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/to-be-righteous-is-one-thing-to-be-right-another/news-story/266a64f16fed247ec8cbcf055f4bb992‘
Yeah. STFU about the conviction rate for rape, the rates of being sexually harassed or assaulted, and the gender pay gap while men coolly and seriously consider these difficult problems on behalf of the women.
This is clever, actually. It is part of the systematic attempt by Morrison and Murdoch to channel women’s anger into the dead end of gender wars. In particular, it is targeted at male voters AND IT IS WORKING AS INTENDED.
M
If you want to tax billionaires more you tell them before the election that you will tax them less. Then, when you have control of both houses, you tax them more. You can ignore their hurt feelings to your heart’s content.
If you don’t want to tax billionaires more then you tell them before the election that you will tax them more before the election and then lose the election.
Mexican Beemer,
To be fair I think Labor said that the Child Care Workers were so disproportionately badly paid that they needed attention as first cab off the rank but that all workers deserved a pay rise.
C@T
That might have been the rationale but the problem was it looked like the ALP were only helping that group with no real plan for anyone else.
Another post but maybe a reminder of why Labor people need to stop doing the LNP propaganda for them.
This first tweet highlights both sides argument well. Just ignore the tone.
@DoveNMetal tweets
Labor stans hate the Greens more than my LNP voting grandma does. She’s like haha silly greenies. They’re like THESE TREE TORIES ARE STEALING VOTES FROM LABOR AND WORKING WITH THE LIBERALS
A good reply.
@OzWobly posts
It’s incredibly frustrating because it betrays a complete ignorance about our electoral system and preferential voting.
Our ranked choice voting system was literally set up to stop the spoiler effect after right wing parties lost the Swan by election in 1912.
Crappy Easter! 🙂
C@tmomma @ #1910 Sunday, April 4th, 2021 – 2:25 pm
Just quietly, I reckon aged care workers are in need of the most urgent of attention, but don’t let me get in the way of a nice big juicy Howard-esque cash bribe to the urbs (childcare).
Dotard was fleecing the dupes…
New York: Stacy Blatt was in hospice care last September listening to broadcaster Rush Limbaugh’s dire warnings about how badly Donald Trump’s campaign needed money when he went online and chipped in everything he could: $US500 ($657).
It was a big sum for a 63-year-old battling cancer and living in Kansas City on less than $US1000 per month. But that single contribution — federal records show it was his first ever — quickly multiplied. Another $US500 was withdrawn the next day, then $US500 the next week and every week through mid-October, without his knowledge — until Blatt’s bank account had been depleted and frozen. When his utility and rent payments bounced, he called his brother, Russell Blatt, for help.
What the Blatts soon discovered was $US3000 in withdrawals by the Trump campaign in less than 30 days. They called their bank and said they thought they were victims of fraud.
“It felt,” Russell Blatt said, “like it was a scam.”
But what the Blatts believed was duplicity was actually an intentional scheme to boost revenues by the Trump campaign and the for-profit company that processed its online donations, WinRed. Facing a cash crunch and getting badly outspent by the Democrats, the campaign had begun last September to set up recurring donations by default for online donors for every week until the election.
Contributors had to wade through a fine-print disclaimer and manually uncheck a box to opt out.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/it-felt-like-a-scam-how-trump-extracted-millions-in-unwitting-donations-from-supporters-20210404-p57ge2.html
So for the benefit of the Labor stans here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_and_use_of_instant-runoff_voting
Guytaur,
You’re right it has nothing to do with our progressive voting system.
It however has everything to do with generating a progressive majority to allow the formation of a progressive Government.
That means attracting current right of centre voters to the progressive side.
Unfortunately rarely do we see anything from the Greens that works towards such an eventuality.
I reckon the Liberal Party have got their eyes on this Dotard scam…
‘As the election neared, the Trump team made that disclaimer increasingly opaque, an investigation by The New York Times showed. It introduced a second prechecked box, known internally as a “money bomb,” that doubled a person’s contribution. Eventually its solicitations featured lines of text in bold and capital letters that overwhelmed the opt-out language.
The tactic ensnared scores of unsuspecting Trump loyalists — retirees, military veterans, nurses and even experienced political operatives. Soon, banks and credit card companies were inundated with fraud complaints from the president’s own supporters about donations they had not intended to make, sometimes for thousands of dollars.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/it-felt-like-a-scam-how-trump-extracted-millions-in-unwitting-donations-from-supporters-20210404-p57ge2.HTML
sprocket_ @ #1915 Sunday, April 4th, 2021 – 2:48 pm
A good lesson to his fellow idiot supporters.
2022 midterms will see a massive landslide win to the Dems, if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot.
Nicholas nails it
Every time Labor loses, I point out here that the real reason Labor lost is the battle for ideas. Labor doesn’t challenge the basic ideas and beliefs that have people vote Liberal because they think Liberals are better with money. And in doing this I’m not suggesting Labor challenge the myth of the budgetary constraint. I agree with Nicholas here but this is politically difficult. I’m just talking about basic economic competence. The fact that the Liberals made life worse for ordinary people. Things like starving universities under Howard. Why isn’t Labor selling the fact that universities are an extremely rewarding investment? Why isn’t Labor selling direct investment into new industries? Its ARENA agency did this, but why not extend the concept? Why isn’t Labor demolishing the economic record of Howard?
And there’s a whole heap of other things that Labor needs to deal with directly. Bad beliefs and ideas about all sorts of things, like infrastructure. Instead Labor chooses to fight with one arm behind its back, never challenging myths. It could for instance turn lifting JobSeeker into a big selling point by arguing that this boosts the economy. It could for instance make a huge selling point out of finally restoring the NBN. It could for instance actually talk openly how about how stupid it is to adopt a punitive attitude to unemployed people – especially given the fact that there are now a lot of newly-unemployed people who never thought they’d experience it.
Barney
They can’t both be true.
What you are talking about is buying the propaganda.
Thus you let the LNP reduce the two party vote.
It’s called divide and conquer and Labor are being Murdoch LNP allies in doing so.
CC and Nicholas
Labor can directly quote Joe Biden on a lot of these issues.
eg. The Jobs Plan has already been expertly crafted.
However until it passes use the already passed stimulus bill to make the arguments. The benefit is it means Murdoch is fighting in Australia against the Washington Post. CNN. NBC ABC (America) the NewYork Times and many many more.
guytaur @ #1922 Sunday, April 4th, 2021 – 1:03 pm
Why can’t they?
No, I’m not.
The issues that concern those in the centre of the political spectrum a very different from the issues that may sway a voter hovering between Labor and the Greens.
Barney
@newscomauHQ tweets
Former footy star Sam Newman has been hit by cancel culture after a South Australian pub’s event sparked an angry backlash.
@LordofWentworth tweets
Man hit by imaginary concept
Edit: My opinion. It’s so the right can embrace victim hood for itself that they invented the cancel culture concept.
Cud Chewer @ #1921 Sunday, April 4th, 2021 – 3:01 pm
Labor doesn’t have the political talent to sell anything other than the most basic of meat and potatoes agenda, leading with a basic bribe to the urbs.
Labor is simply working within their limitations – and it may well work.
guytaur @ #1925 Sunday, April 4th, 2021 – 1:11 pm
???????????
I’m more bullish about 2022 than some – despite the historical disadvantage incumbants have in mid-terms, the ’22 electoral map is pretty friendly to the Democrats, while the Republican Party is presently preoccupied with its transformation into the Donald Trump Party.
But anything resembling a landslide for the Dems seems incredibly unlikely. IMO, absolute best case scenario is that they hold the House and increase their Senate majority by a couple of seats.
Barney
The political centre is not between the LNP and Greens
It’s between the far right and far left.
Move to the right and you are not left or what is known as progressive these days.
Labor arguing on right wing propaganda means Labor has moved right. Keep the policies just don’t use right wing propaganda to punch left.
It only helps the right.
CC
Its not that hard a case to be made if the ALP speaks the language of finance which many on the left cannot do.
If i was ALP leader my first response to claims i will be leaving more debt for future generations would be to say well no we are leaving higher superannuation balances for future generations because superfunds buy government debt.
Asha
I think the Democrats are going to win.
They have corporations boycotting Georgia over voting rights.
They have Major League Baseball doing the same.
That’s firing Democrats to turn out in 22.
It’s an anger that is going to last because it’s Trump electoral strategy.
Hopefully this time no riots attacking lawmakers.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-04/nt-missing-girl-in-central-australia-found-by-family/100048004
Something to smile about. Wonderful.
The political centre is an incredibly nebulous, subjective, and ever-changing concept that no two people are likely to ever fully agree on. It varies from issue to issue, from year to year, from state to state, and from country to country, often shifting in weird and unexpected ways in response to the regular swerves we see in the political narrative.
Anyone who tells you they know where the political centre is on basically any issue anywhere is either lying to you or lying to themselves.
guytaur @ #1929 Sunday, April 4th, 2021 – 1:16 pm
Are you trying to say that the Greens are a Right wing Party?
It has little to do with Labor moving Left or Right, it’s about Labor highlighting its policies that are likely to attract voters in the Centre.
That is how you can create a progressive majority.
Labor needs to learn not to attack people like Robert Reich for posting stuff like this.
@RBReich tweets
7 necessary ways to tax the rich.
1. Repeal the Trump tax cuts.
2. Raise the tax rate on those at the top.
3. A wealth tax on the super-wealthy.
4. A transactions tax on stocks.
5. End the “stepped-up cost basis” loophole.
6. Close loopholes for the rich.
7. Audit the rich.
Note that’s not a Greens party member.
Then if the Greens use the same rhetoric accept it’s progressive not a Trojan horse for the LNP to win.
Guytaur
None of those ideas are needed in Australia.
Barney
You say this directly after you have seen me say use Biden’s bully pulpit to argue for Labor.
Time to rethink your approach
Guytaur:
Is Labor attacking this person? Who is he?
Beemer
Wrong.
A wealth tax is needed.
Kevin Rudd and Labor told us so.
They were following Keating policy too. It was a miners tax.
Labor in government got scared from a media campaign.
guytaur @ #1937 Sunday, April 4th, 2021 – 1:31 pm
You really like to hide behind people rather than address the points being put forward.
Guytaur
The miners tax was a super profits tax not a wealth tax.
A wealth tax applies to wealthy individuals.
Australia doesn’t have a tax revenue problem.
Asha Leu
I’m more bullish about 2022 than some – despite the historical disadvantage incumbants have in mid-terms, the ’22 electoral map is pretty friendly to the Democrats, while the Republican Party is presently preoccupied with its transformation into the Donald Trump Party.
——————
I think that in this climate electoral politics is very hard to pick. At times of upheaval past performance – such as the general rule of the incumbent President’s party going backwards in the mid terms – may well not be a guide to future performance. However a lot may depend on the Democrats’ ability to overturn the voter suppression efforts of Republican State governments – and doing that in less than 2 years given the legislative process and the likelihood of cases being gridlocked in the courts, will be a challenge. A related issue in terms of the Democrat’s ability to retain control of the House will be the effect of redistricting and the near certainty that Republican states will crank up partisan gerrymandering to the max. The Democrats can’t afford to lose even a handful of House seats.
Barney
Labor people here say Biden’s great. I am saying. So use that to Labor’s advantage.
Or is it because Biden benefits the Greens party campaign more than Labor’s?
“If you want to tax billionaires more you tell them before the election that you will tax them less. Then, when you have control of both houses, you tax them more. You can ignore their hurt feelings to your heart’s content.”
F’n aye.
Apparently there are less that 200 of them country, but lot’s of people aspire to be millionaires or billionaires. So let the bigger group have their aspirations before the election. Make them feel good about that, then slap the <200 with some form of tax after you get power.
No hurt feelings to the hundreds of thousands of aspirationals, and the wealthy – really, they will be fine.
E.g. Don't mention of limits to franking credit rebates before an election, then afterwards limit the rebate to, say $50k or $100k (that's the rebate, not the tax credit/deduction). You'd have to have millions in shares to get a $50k rebate. Implement it before the next election so people can see the outcome. For most, they will see that it doesn't impact them. Done, and no room for a scare campaign.
@DanielBleakley tweets
The is no bigger “echo chamber” than News Corp.
“4. A transactions tax on stocks.”
That is a fucking awful idea.
“2. Raise the tax rate on those at the top.”
And is Australia, we can do this by limiting franking credit rebates.
Nicholas says:
Sunday, April 4, 2021 at 12:30 pm
An earlier Poster suggested that ….. Labor hasn’t contested [the] false narrative thoroughly and consistently; instead they choose to accept the false premises and compete on terms that favour conservatives. That is why they lose most federal elections.
Labor have been divided structurally most of the time since 1917. In that period, Labor has won from Opposition while also being internally divided just once – in 1972.
The Labor-positive plurality is again institutionally divided and Labor is again in Opposition. The divide will keep the LNP in office. This is an intended result on the part of the schism. They will get what they want – the recurring defeat of Labor.
Beemer
Yes there are no children in poverty.
There is no need to increase health funding to avoid the problems we had with covid 19 in probable future pandemics.
The list goes on.
Only a government is the problem ideologue would claim we have no tax revenue problem.
N
You do your best to promote that division
We see it every day.