The big issue

Issue polling, Tasmanian polling, election timing and preselection latest.

Note posts below this on latest developments in the Western Australian campaign and a new state poll from South Australia. In other polling news, we have the latest from a regular series on issue salience and a state poll from Tasmania that I don’t quite feel warrants a post of its own:

• The latest True Issues survey of issue salience from JWS Research records a slight moderation of the coronavirus-driven peculiarities of the mid-year results, in that 42% now rate health among the top three issues (down from 47% in June, but still well up on 24% in February) and 19% do so for environment (up three on last time, but still well down on 26% in February. However, a spike in concern about the economy (steady at 32%, compared with 18% in February) and employment and wages (up two to 30%, compared with 21% in February) has not abated. Nineteen per cent rate the federal government’s response to COVID-19 as very good and 37% as good, but state governments collectively fare better at 29% and 35%. Positive ratings are markedly lower in Victoria for both the federal and state governments. Plenty more detail here from the poll, which was conducted from February 18 to 22 from a sample of 1000.

• The latest quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania is little changed on the previous result in November, with the incumbent Liberals steady on 52%, Labor up two to 27% and the Greens up one to 14%, with the only complication to a static picture being a four point drop for “others” to 7%. Peter Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier is unchanged at 52-27. The poll was conducted by phone from Monday, February 15 to Tuesday, February 23, from a sample of 1000. Much analysis as always from Kevin Bonham.

Other relevant developments:

• The conventional wisdom that the election would be held in the second half of this year, most likely around September, was disturbed by an Age/Herald report last week that the Prime Minister had “told colleagues to plan for two federal budgets before the Coalition government heads to the polls”.

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Warren Entsch, who has held the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt for the Liberals and the Liberal National Party outside of a one-term time-out from 2007 to 2010, has gone back on his decision to retire. The 70-year-old announced this term would be his last on the night of the 2019 election, but now feels it “incumbent on me during these uncertain times to continue to support our community and its residents”.

• The Advertiser reports the Prime Minister has told South Australian factional leaders they are expected to preselect a woman to succeed Nicolle Flint in Boothby. This presumably reduces the chances of the position going to state Environment Minister David Speirs, who said last week he was “pondering” a run. The Advertiser suggests the front runners are Rachel Swift, a factional moderate and infectious diseases expert who currently has the unwinnable fourth position on the Senate ticket, and Leah Blyth, a conservative and head of student services at Adelaide University. Another woman mentioned as a possibility by Tom Richardson of InDaily was Marion Themeliotis, Onkaparinga councillor and staffer to state Davenport MP Steve Murray.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,316 comments on “The big issue”

Comments Page 41 of 47
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  1. lizzie @ #1973 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 12:19 pm

    Politic@l Spinner.
    @LesStonehouse
    Airline tickets at half price to 800,000 travellers in a bid to help the tourism industry announcement made at the same time as newspoll contacting voters next few days.. will it work? We’ll Find out Sunday night.

    Replying to
    @LesStonehouse
    Will be interesting to see what those travellers think when they get to their destination and find accommodation, restaurants/eateries and activities non-existent because, you know, no more job-keeper

    ‘will it work? We’ll Find out Sunday night.’
    You betcha.

  2. Douglas and Milko @ #1987 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 12:31 pm

    Poliphilli,

    One thing I notice is that P1 never voluntarily engages with Dandy M, the expert.

    While not being a Sustainable Australia supporter, she is definitely on a mission to sell their energy platform.

    Dandy is great on mansplaining details. For engaging with the actual point, not so much.

    As for selling someone else’s energy policy, I am doing no such thing. I would like to see us have a rational energy policy, is all. As would the rest of the world.

    My preference would be for Labor to have one. Rather stupid of me, given that Albo has just been fitted for some new Elevator shoes, but nonetheless that is what I would prefer.

  4. @denniallen tweets
    800000 half price airline tickets to major tourist destinations. Cairns hospital already on code yellow…potential community spread. #auspol #MSM

  6. Vogon Poet @ #1990 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 12:36 pm

    It was funny a couple of weeks back when dandy replied to a P1 ” I’m all ears ” to a statement P1 had made that Dandy was wrong but it would be a waste of time explaining why, whilst at the same time demanding multiple time that Socrates answer their question.

    If that was one where Dandy tried to explain how baseload power is no longer a thing, then I probably just gave up in exasperation. If it was something else I would be happy to revisit it and try and answer.

    Oh, and I don’t think Socrates has answered the question even yet, so clearly we are “same same” on that 🙂

  9. C@tmomma @ #1991 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 12:37 pm

    Poliphili @ #1949 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 12:26 pm

    Many thanks to Frednk for your fortitude in trying to reason with P1. However, I think that N has the right idea. Best not to engage. Even when Dandy Murray successfully decapitates its argument @ 11.57, I fear that, like Hydra, it will reappear strengthened by its self belief in its infallibility.

    It’s the Smarm gene. Player One has it in the Double Dominant form.

    Feeling left out again C@t? Time to replace the flea collar, perhaps?

  11. P1 your basic problem is Dandy is an expert in his subject, he spent his time explaining basic stuff to you. You are so clueless that instead of taking the lesson you continued to display your cluelessness.

    It really doesn’t matter how many times you tell yourself otherwise, you are still clueless.

  13. Just heard Fran Kelly saying she has been contacted by a couple of people who were considering the 50% off flight tickets & said the tickets cost doubled the original price.

  15. An ETS or EIS would be one way to address the correct goal.

    It is too late. Governments need to build stuff (transmission, backup, etc) so private business can tack on renewable generation and the lights stay on.

    The New England transmission line is one example. Stop the fluffing with fuzzy PPPs and build it.

    And governments can offer grants and incentives to rearrange and relocate usage. Enough of the residential battery subsidies that too often just go to battery companies or retailers.

  16. P1,
    I am genuinely trying to understand where you are coming from.

    A few weeks ago after one of your posts, I thought that there was not a political party in Australia that would have an energy / environment policy you would be happy with. I used the key words anti-fracking but pro LNG to see if there was a group with this policy, and found SA.

    That aside, would you be happy if all coal fired power plants were closed by 2023? Or do you want earlier or later.

    Once you give us that information, then we can look at what energy is required to achieve this, and how much the solution will lower net emissions.

    No one here is saying that lowering emissions will not cost money. In fact all of us posting in response to you would happily support a price on carbon personally.

  17. Frednk @ #2011 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 1:04 pm

    P1 your basic problem is Dandy is an expert in his subject, he spent his time explaining basic stuff to you. You are so clueless that instead of taking the lesson you continued to display your cluelessness.

    It really doesn’t matter how many times you tell yourself otherwise, you are still clueless.

    Dandy clearly knows what he/she is talking about. I believe I have said that before. Sometimes, Dandy knows so much that he/she misses the crucial point. I think I may have said that before also.

    The difference between many people here and Dandy, is that with Dandy this is most likely an honest mistake.

  18. Just heard Fran Kelly saying she has been contacted by a couple of people who were considering the 50% off flight tickets & said the tickets cost doubled the original price.

    Fran Kelly also introduced James Paterson as “Chair of the Joint Parliamentary Committee on Intelligence and Security” – not mention that he is a Liberal party MP and let him get away with, without comment (unless it came much later), saying Australia welcomes people fleeing difficult circumstances.

  19. P1, I really don’t feel a need to argue with you. I’ll try to point out where you may have made some errors in your reasoning, but that’s it.

  20. Labor is seeking to co-opt business into opposing the government’s controversial Your Future Your Super reforms, warning that special ministerial powers contained in the legislation could be used to politicise investment.

    In letters to the Minerals Council, the Business Council and the Australian Conservation Foundation, Labor’s superannuation spokesman Stephen Jones said the Treasurer would be able to “reach into the boardrooms of every Australian business” with the new powers.
    ..
    “There is nothing wrong with members of Parliament, or any other Australian, expressing views about investment decisions,” he said. “Under the current law, these are only opinions.

    “This bill sets a dangerous precedent for government law making. We are unaware of another instance where, during peacetime and without national security concerns, a Treasurer has being given the power to cancel investment decisions.

    “If a power can be given to direct superannuation funds, it could be extended to other corporations.”

    https://www.afr.com/policy/tax-and-super/labor-seeks-to-co-opt-business-in-super-fight-20210310-p579c4

  23. ‘lizzie says:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 1:15 pm

    Labor is seeking to co-opt business into opposing the government’s controversial Your Future Your Super reforms, warning that special ministerial powers contained in the legislation…’ would be used corruptly. Of course they would.

    Crooks and liars. The most corrupt federal government since Federation.

  24. Paul Kelly

    There have been a few cases of anaphylaxis. There have been some deaths following immunisation but not related to immunisation.

    [But] nothing unusual. The majority have been those consistent with clinical trial and real world data … We’ve seen three cases of severe allergic reactions, but they were handled expertly and quickly, with no ongoing adverse effects.

    Other adverse events are relatively minor and include pain at the injection site, some fever, body pain, headache, Kelly said, but “nothing untoward”.

  26. Douglas and Milko @ #2016 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 1:12 pm

    I am genuinely trying to understand where you are coming from.

    If you assume I am pushing a particular political party other than Labor, then I can see how you might be confused. I am a Labor supporter. But Labor’s energy policy is … well, confounding, to say the least. Labor have different (and often contradictory) policies at state level. Look at WA. Look at fracking. The Federal Labor party clearly tries to walk a tightrope so as not to offend anyone, and just as clearly fails dismally and so have ended up (currently) with no actual policy at all.

    As to particular policies, I would be perfectly happy if we had an EIS. This does not mandate a particular technology, or set a date for phasing out highly emission intensive technologies like coal, and it is a cheap and efficient approach – it rewards those initiatives that reduces emissions, by cross-subsidizing those that do using money from those that don’t. It is perhaps as close to implementing the actual goal (of reducing our total emissions) as you can get in a single policy. This was once Labor’s preferred policy, by the way.

    Simply putting a price on carbon would also be acceptable. But there are too many Labor supporters here who specifically oppose any such notion. You know who they are. They particularly love to claim that economic factors are already solving the problem for us, and we don’t actually need to do anything more than what we are doing. Since this is so clearly nonsense, as the world keeps trying to point out to us, you might ask yourself why they continue to make this claim. I do.

  28. No wonder people want more information.

    Labor’s Katy Gallagher asks whether the October timeline means everyone will have had one or both of the AstraZeneca doses – which are ideally spaced 12 weeks apart – by that date.

    Murphy said the October timeline is to have delivered the first dose, which is already “very effective” by itself.

    As Gallagher notes, this contradicts the department of prime minister and cabinet secretary Phil Gaetjens’ evidence that the target relates to people having both doses. Murphy said this will be difficult.

    Murphy said:

    We haven’t got an exact date. We’re remodelling.

  29. lizzie @ #2028 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:39 am

    No wonder people want more information.

    Labor’s Katy Gallagher asks whether the October timeline means everyone will have had one or both of the AstraZeneca doses – which are ideally spaced 12 weeks apart – by that date.

    Murphy said the October timeline is to have delivered the first dose, which is already “very effective” by itself.

    As Gallagher notes, this contradicts the department of prime minister and cabinet secretary Phil Gaetjens’ evidence that the target relates to people having both doses. Murphy said this will be difficult.

    Murphy said:

    We haven’t got an exact date. We’re remodelling.

    It’s really quite simple;

    If you can deliver the first dose by July, then October is feasible,

    otherwise if it’s by October for the first dose, then January is the date.

  31. SK,

    Ta.

    The New England transmission line is one example. Stop the fluffing with fuzzy PPPs and build it.

    They are! https://www.transgrid.com.au/news-views/news/2020/Pages/QNI-project-progresses-following-regulator-determination-on-RIT-T.aspx

    “The project has been supported by the Australian and NSW Governments which have provided joint-underwriting to enable TransGrid to accelerate the delivery of the upgrade.

    Mr Gatt says early works have commenced on the upgrade project which is expected to be delivered in September, 2021.”

    And the EnergyConnect link between South Australia and New South Wales is also going ahead, quickly: http://www.projectenergyconnect.com.au/download.php?id=8

    “Given the savings and benefits will be shared as soon as the interconnector is in place, ElectraNet and TransGrid are working closely with the South Australian and New South Wales governments to commence construction as soon as possible, subject to gaining all necessary environmental and planning approvals.

    We are working towards a 2022 completion date and continue to look for opportunities”

    Energy Australia know this, which is why they are shutting down Yallourn.

    Hot tip – there are more accelerated shutdown timelines coming.

  32. Dandy Murray
    When you did your modeling did you take into account the projects that have been accelerated?
    Did you take into account the Victorian “west connect” ( I think that is what they are calling it, 500KV to Ballarat etc. ) to bring on line more wind and solar power from the west of the state?

  34. Frednk @ #2030 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 1:48 pm

    So you haven’t worked out politics 101. Policy isn’t worth jack shit if you don’t get into power.

    So you think Labor can get into power without any actual policies? Well, it seems we’re quite likely to see how that turns out.

    I would suggest you don’t spend too much on the catering for your victory celebration.

  35. Player One @ #2034 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:58 am

    Frednk @ #2030 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 1:48 pm

    So you haven’t worked out politics 101. Policy isn’t worth jack shit if you don’t get into power.

    So you think can get into power without any actual policies? Well, it seems we’re quite likely to see how that turns out.

    I would suggest you don’t spend too much on the catering for your victory celebration.

    Well the Government continually demonstrates that you can maintain power without them, so why not?

  36. Some people on this blog spend too much time blowing smoke up their arse, like Player One. For example, the comment above about it being time to replace my flea collar. Which only served to prove my point about the Smarm gene. However, what was the nastiest aspect of it was that I don’t know how many times I have told Player One that my experience on this blog is immeasurably better because I have Player One blocked, therefore such juvenile comments about me like that one can only have been made with that knowledge. It’s only because I am outside a Specialist’s rooms waiting for my son that I saw it. It’s just pathetic really but there you go. I just have to be satisfied with the fact that I am not such a sad and obviously needy individual.

    Oh, and welcome to the club, Player One, I advocated for an Emissions Intensity Scheme almost 10 years ago when Abbott looked on track to defeat the Price on Carbon.


  37. Player One says:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 1:58 pm

    Frednk @ #2030 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 1:48 pm

    So you haven’t worked out politics 101. Policy isn’t worth jack shit if you don’t get into power.

    So you think Labor can get into power without any actual policies? Well, it seems we’re quite likely to see how that turns out.

    Policy that changes things has no support from those the benefit and opposition form those that lose. Policy done on miss conception is opposed by almost all. Policy does not win elections. Slogans win elections.

  38. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2035 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 2:01 pm

    Well the Government continually demonstrates that you can maintain power without them, so why not?

    We all know what the COALition policies will be, even if they don’t explicitly spell them out. They don’t really need to do so.

    But Labor can’t pull the same trick – particularly on issues where they have dithered and changed their mind so often.

    This is a scare campaign that even the dumbest political strategist could write … while asleep.


  39. Dandy Murray says:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 1:57 pm

    Fred,

    No, just a quick and dirty run of a small existing model with Yallourn set to 0MW.

    Thanks.

  43. Now the fun and games really start

    Ryan J. Reilly
    @ryanjreilly
    After he’s sworn in tomorrow, Attorney General Merrick Garland will have a series of briefings on the Capitol attack. FBI Director Chris Wray and DOJ NSD leaders will participate. Then he’ll head to the USAO in DC to meet with officials working the Capitol investigation.
    1:48 PM · Mar 11, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

  44. Player One @ #2038 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:12 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2035 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 2:01 pm

    Well the Government continually demonstrates that you can maintain power without them, so why not?

    We all know what the COALition policies will be, even if they don’t explicitly spell them out. They don’t really need to do so.

    But Labor can’t pull the same trick – particularly on issues where they have dithered and changed their mind so often.

    This is a scare campaign that even the dumbest political strategist could write … while asleep.

    But somehow you can’t take for granted that Labor will act when in Government, despite Labor’s nation position committing to acting on global warming and their proven record in Government of pursuing and implementing such policies.

    😆 😆 😆

  45. Mention of “Sick Hunt” brings to mind the late Ralph Hunt, Nationals MP and also a Minister for Health under Fraser. I remember him as Minister for Transport and Construction prior to Hawke’s win in 1983. He was also referred to unkindly as “Pork Hunt”.

  46. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2044 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 2:41 pm

    But somehow you can’t take for granted that Labor will act when in Government, despite Labor’s nation position committing to acting on global warming and their proven record in Government of pursuing and implementing such policies.

    Nope. Not while Albo is wearing his Elevator shoes.

  48. Player One @ #2046 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:43 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2044 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 2:41 pm

    But somehow you can’t take for granted that Labor will act when in Government, despite Labor’s nation position committing to acting on global warming and their proven record in Government of pursuing and implementing such policies.

    Nope. Not while Albo is wearing his Elevator shoes.

    That sums you up perfectly.

    A policy would provide no change to your opinion as you would then try to cast doubt on the will or desire to implement it, or just say it’s not good enough.

  49. SMH breaking headline:

    “Some people may have to wait until mid-December for their second shot of a COVID-19 vaccine due to local and international supply problems.”

    May need to change those $24 million vaccine adverts a bit – perhaps a new slogan “Good things come to those who wait”.

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