The big issue

Issue polling, Tasmanian polling, election timing and preselection latest.

Note posts below this on latest developments in the Western Australian campaign and a new state poll from South Australia. In other polling news, we have the latest from a regular series on issue salience and a state poll from Tasmania that I don’t quite feel warrants a post of its own:

• The latest True Issues survey of issue salience from JWS Research records a slight moderation of the coronavirus-driven peculiarities of the mid-year results, in that 42% now rate health among the top three issues (down from 47% in June, but still well up on 24% in February) and 19% do so for environment (up three on last time, but still well down on 26% in February. However, a spike in concern about the economy (steady at 32%, compared with 18% in February) and employment and wages (up two to 30%, compared with 21% in February) has not abated. Nineteen per cent rate the federal government’s response to COVID-19 as very good and 37% as good, but state governments collectively fare better at 29% and 35%. Positive ratings are markedly lower in Victoria for both the federal and state governments. Plenty more detail here from the poll, which was conducted from February 18 to 22 from a sample of 1000.

• The latest quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania is little changed on the previous result in November, with the incumbent Liberals steady on 52%, Labor up two to 27% and the Greens up one to 14%, with the only complication to a static picture being a four point drop for “others” to 7%. Peter Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier is unchanged at 52-27. The poll was conducted by phone from Monday, February 15 to Tuesday, February 23, from a sample of 1000. Much analysis as always from Kevin Bonham.

Other relevant developments:

• The conventional wisdom that the election would be held in the second half of this year, most likely around September, was disturbed by an Age/Herald report last week that the Prime Minister had “told colleagues to plan for two federal budgets before the Coalition government heads to the polls”.

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Warren Entsch, who has held the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt for the Liberals and the Liberal National Party outside of a one-term time-out from 2007 to 2010, has gone back on his decision to retire. The 70-year-old announced this term would be his last on the night of the 2019 election, but now feels it “incumbent on me during these uncertain times to continue to support our community and its residents”.

• The Advertiser reports the Prime Minister has told South Australian factional leaders they are expected to preselect a woman to succeed Nicolle Flint in Boothby. This presumably reduces the chances of the position going to state Environment Minister David Speirs, who said last week he was “pondering” a run. The Advertiser suggests the front runners are Rachel Swift, a factional moderate and infectious diseases expert who currently has the unwinnable fourth position on the Senate ticket, and Leah Blyth, a conservative and head of student services at Adelaide University. Another woman mentioned as a possibility by Tom Richardson of InDaily was Marion Themeliotis, Onkaparinga councillor and staffer to state Davenport MP Steve Murray.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,316 comments on “The big issue”

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  1. From the last thread…

    “Tres cute.”

    Check out the bloke standing next to the Member for Newtown, Jenny Leong, in the green suit and rainbow hat! Now that’s style! 😀

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Jack Waterford concludes this long exposition on why Christian Porter’s resignation would not collapse the rule of law with, “Indeed, it is almost impossible to imagine Morrison – marketer supreme – transforming himself, in the mind of Australian women, into a champion of the rights and dignity of woman. If he doesn’t already know that could never occur while Christian Porter is his legal adviser, he is not the politician I have thought.”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7153951/so-the-rule-of-law-is-collapsing-what-nonsense/?cs=14350
    And Bruce Wolpe explains why Christian Porter cannot avoid facing a reckoning on judgments about his fitness to serve.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7155568/the-attorney-general-and-the-supreme-court-justice/?cs=14264
    Legal and business experts have said there is no “rule of law” issue with the attorney general, Christian Porter, facing an independent inquiry into an allegation of sexual assault, allegedly committed in 1988.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/07/christian-porter-allegations-independent-inquiry-no-threat-to-rule-of-law-legal-experts-say
    The push for Christian Porter’s political execution resembles a modern-day remake of Arthur Miller’s play The Crucible, with sections of the media playing the role of the baying mob, says the wonderful Gerard Henderson.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/all-balance-lost-in-the-crucible-of-a-canberra-witch-trial/news-story/53ce8395300897d11b141851592848dd
    Michael Koziol reports that frustrated GPs are threatening to pull out of the coronavirus vaccination program, complaining of a “nonsensical” process and low rates of payment that will not cover their costs. The stuff gold standards are made of?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/frustrated-gps-threaten-to-pull-out-of-covid-19-vaccination-program-20210305-p5783s.html
    Linda Reynolds has delayed her return to work following medical advice from her doctors in a move that will raise fresh questions about her political future, writes James Massola.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/reynolds-delays-her-return-to-work-raising-questions-about-her-future-20210304-p577yu.html
    Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins has issued a call to arms to staffers from across the political spectrum to participate in her view of Parliament House’s workplace culture, assuring them “we absolutely want to hear from you” and promising the inquiry will help “map the solution”, reports James Massola.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-want-to-hear-from-you-jenkins-urges-staffers-to-come-forward-with-complaints-20210304-p577yt.html
    Luke Henriques-Gomes writes that the Morrison government is facing growing backlash from the disability community over a plan to introduce “independent assessments” to the national disability insurance scheme by the middle of the year. Critics are slamming the move as a cost-cutting exercise. With it being championed by Stuart Robert what could possibly go wrong?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/07/backlash-grows-over-independent-assessments-plan-for-disability-scheme
    The Morrison government would like to declare the economic battle is won, writes Greg Jericho who says focusing purely on growth will hide how much has been lost and how far we have to go to get back to where we were.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/mar/07/the-morrison-government-would-like-to-declare-the-economic-battle-is-won
    Voter support for Premier Steven Marshall’s Liberals has slumped from a coronavirus crisis peak to put Labor back in the race for the next election, a statewide Sunday Mail poll reveals. It has the Liberals with a 51/49 lead.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/sunday-mailyougov-poll-premier-steven-marshalls-liberals-lead-eroded-by-peter-malinauskass-labor/news-story/40e0c4bf67ce6a44434b466884b88a3f
    Peter Fitzsimons reveals that the movement that got rid of Tony Abbott is gunning for Angus Taylor now.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/movement-that-got-rid-of-tony-abbott-is-gunning-for-angus-taylor-20210305-p5787z.html
    Michael Koziol tells us that the main lesson from the “Church and State” conference last weekend in Brisbane was how conservative Christian activists are attempting to grow their numbers and influence within the Coalition and believe opposition to transgender rights will be key to their political success. Insidiousness.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-our-turn-inside-the-christian-right-conference-plotting-a-political-takeover-20210303-p577fv.html
    Getting to net zero isn’t all pain and expense – there are huge opportunities for Australia, says Warren Entsch.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/07/getting-to-net-zero-isnt-all-pain-and-expense-there-are-huge-opportunities-for-australia
    Zac Hope writes that Victoria’s peak business body says the COVID-19 vaccine rollout will be one of the biggest workplace relations issues of the year and is warning that employers face potential legal action if state and federal governments can’t provide better advice about health and safety obligations.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace/vaccine-rollout-one-of-biggest-workplace-relations-issues-of-year-20210304-p577si.html
    The first real-world data for COVID-19 vaccines is in – and the vaccines’ effectiveness have once-again shot past scientists’ expectations, explains Liam Mannix.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-first-real-world-data-for-covid-vaccines-is-in-and-it-s-really-good-news-20210306-p578d5.html
    There is a dystopian logic to the aged care treadmill in which the people who care most are forced to work longer to pay for people who care less to replace them, writes Parnell Palme McGuinness.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/at-both-end-of-life-are-we-replacing-care-with-cash-20210305-p57839.html
    Miki Perkins reports that Victoria’s environmental watchdog will not force the state’s heavily polluting brown coal power stations to lower their greenhouse gas emissions, following a review and renewal of their licences.
    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/coal-fired-power-stations-not-forced-to-reduce-greenhouse-gases-20210305-p5783c.html
    The AIMN’s Rossleigh gives Chris Uhlmann a serve saying he “Chris Uhlmann should receive an award for his writing about Twitter. No, not a Walkley, but there are many great fiction awards and Chris has been doing great fiction for years. Like when he asserted that it was South Australia’s reliance on wind power which led to transmitters being blown over.”
    https://theaimn.com/the-sewer-of-twitter-is-why-chris-uhlmann-should-receive-an-award/
    Joe Biden is the antithesis of Donald Trump, but if he fails Trumpland will rise again, says The New Daily.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/trump-news/2021/03/06/greetings-from-trumpland-book/

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Davidson

    Matt Golding


    Glen Le Lievre


    Mark Knight

    From the US





  3. Hmm, my wages haven’t gone up in about 8 years, the profits of businesses are soaring, business taxes have gone down and the Coalition have been in power for that long…I think a Sentiments Survey is the place to register my displeasure with this situation.

  5. The rise and rise of the Pentecostal mates. Stuart Robert being mentioned in dispatches to replace Linda Reynolds in Defence.

  7. Michael Koziol tells us that the main lesson from the “Church and State” conference last weekend in Brisbane was how conservative Christian activists are attempting to grow their numbers

    Bring it on. they have done wonders for the Liberal Party in WA. 😆
    .
    12 Jan 2019
    WA Libs’ evangelicals likened to ‘a cancer’ by Federal MP who says they are close to a complete ‘takeover’

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/religion-and-belief/wa-libs-evangelicals-likened-to-a-cancer-by-federal-mp-who-says-they-are-close-to-a-complete-takeover-ng-b881070135z
    .
    29 February 2016

    Mr Johnson said the election of church members to key positions on Saturday confirmed his fears that the division had been infiltrated.

    “I call them religious cults and what really concerns me is that they are masquerading as Liberals and they are taking over the Liberal Party in the northern suburbs,” he said.

    “Their power has been increasing and I’m very, very concerned that normal Liberal voters are not aware of what is happening.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-29/rob-johnson-lashes-wa-liberals-over-religious-cults/7209064

  8. ‘The conventional wisdom that the election would be held in the second half of this year, most likely around September..’

    On the basis of this, I will now become mundo and claim that, because one of my predictions (appears) to have come true, none of you can doubt me on anything from now on.

  9. poroti

    From yesterday. I also read about the proposed takeover of the WA Libs by Evangelicals. Very worrying.

    Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor
    20h
    The grapes of wrath that we are seeing in relation to the modern day Liberal Party is the result of the takeover by the godbotherers in the late 1990s , amplified by Howard and his purge of middle ground MPs, then Abbott the Goat herder and now the Cult Man from Hillsong..

  11. Two weeks ago, Morrison’s wife asked him to imagine that Brittany Higgins was one of his own daughters. He did, and was left “shattered” at the thought. That burst of empathy must have worn his imagination out for the month, because he now can’t seem to envisage that his attorney-general could be capable of rape – not enough to even look into it, at least. But perhaps if he could imagine it, just for a second…

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/rachel-withers/2021/04/2021/1614833230/if-he-did-it?

  12. lizzie
    ‘Abbott the Goat Herder’ 😆 TW’s names show the Libs ‘Xtian’ evolution, from old school genteel bigotry to late Victorian ‘muscular Christianity’ to US prosperity theology greed.

  14. And it doesn’t matter whether Morrison believes Porter is innocent. It doesn’t matter if Porter is innocent.

    An inquiry needs to be held.

    In fact, Morrison believing Porter to be innocent and Porter knowing he is innocent is all the more reason for one.

  15. Stuart Robert for Defence ? Well of course. With the End Days imminent according to Stu and Scrott’s flavour of god bothering who better to have ? Not that it matters who has the gig when it happens 😆

  18. TRUMPS SENDS CEASE-AND-DESIST TO RNC, NRCC AND NRSC. Lawyers for former President DONALD TRUMP sent out cease-and-desist letters Friday to the three largest fundraising entities for the Republican Party — the RNC, NRCC and NRSC — for using his name and likeness on fundraising emails and merchandise, a Trump adviser tells Playbook.

    We reported yesterday that Trump was furious that his name has been bandied about by organizations that help Republicans who voted to impeach him — without his permission. Trump, who made his fortune in licensing, has always been sensitive to how his name has been used to fundraise and support members, even while in office.

    On Friday, the RNC sent out two emails asking supporters to donate as a way to add their name to a “thank you” card for Trump. “President Trump will ALWAYS stand up for the American People, and I just thought of the perfect way for you to show that you support him!” the email states. “As one of President Trump’s MOST LOYAL supporters, I think that YOU, deserve the great honor of adding your name to the Official Trump ‘Thank You’ Card.” A follow-up email was sent hours later to “President Trump’s TOP supporters” warning of a deadline of 10 hours to get their names on the card.

  24. It’s great the forces that removed Abbott are targeting Angus Taylor, however I would prefer that level of effort to remove Sukkar, Tudge, Wood, Liu and Hunt. A package deal of removing a higher number of members in a smaller geographical area makes far more sense than token victories…

  26. BK,
    You have really put the pepper in my mill this morning. I’m off to my own Voices Of/We Are… meeting and having the likes of pusillanimous Gerard fresh in my mind is sure to inspire me. 🙂

  29. dave

    Robert in Army Intelligence? Hmmm. There’s a fit somewhere. Spying and manipulation? Not as absurd as I first thought.

  30. Jeez, if the hapless Robert goes to defence we’ll have happy-clappers in “Malfunction Junction” (aka, Russell Offices), The Lodge, and Yarralumla – the Holy Trinity.

  32. I think it’s time for 4 Corners to do a program showing the pervasive and growing influence of evangelicals in the Liberal Party (which does not have exclusivity with this phenomenon) throughout the country. In the federal sphere the number of times Hillsong’s name pops up there is incredible.

  33. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    *************************************

    The good new keeps just rolling along…

    If it keeps up I guess I’ll have to look for a local

    To hide in. Maybe more ☕☕ will calm me. ☕

  34. ‘What work do you do C@t that you have not had a pay increase in 8 years?’

    And are you seeing the slow replacement of your colleagues with migrant workers with a structurally lower minimum wage? (just asking, its happening where I work)

  36. Mavis says:
    Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 8:56 am
    Jeez, if the hapless Robert goes to defence we’ll have happy-clappers in “Malfunction Junction” (aka, Russell Offices), The Lodge, and Yarralumla – the Holy Trinity.

    Wait until they declare Happyclapperism as the state religion with Margaret Court as the high priestess.

  37. Bingo

    Ben Harris-Roxas
    @ben_hr
    ·
    28m
    You often see journalists blaming Australia’s defamation laws for why they’re so timid and never speak truth to power. We currently have an example of how they’d act if these didn’t exist, shredding the memory of a dead person who did nothing wrong, to protect the powerful.

  39. Mr Squiggle @ #34 Sunday, March 7th, 2021 – 9:08 am

    ‘What work do you do C@t that you have not had a pay increase in 8 years?’

    And are you seeing the slow replacement of your colleagues with migrant workers with a structurally lower minimum wage? (just asking, its happening where I work)

    Exactly. Plus the forcible attempts of companies to present a take it or leave it offer in EBA negotiations to offer the Award or a diminished set of Pay and Conditions.

    Not to mention that due to Pharmacy owners being able to source pharmacists to work for them from overseas countries, employed pharmacists have seen their hourly rate of pay almost halve in the last 20 years, since the period of Howard and WorkChoices.

  41. I saw my GP on Thursday and asked him if he was going to be giving the C.19 jabs. He replied with an emphatic no, saying that there are 17 pages of protocols that need to be complied with, even though he stood to make a motza as he doesn’t bulk bill (even pensioners), the minimum charge per visit $112, longer visit, $250. The vaccine is free but not the visit to get it. Good doctor, though.

  42. My observation of people with downward envy, both low paid workers and tradies is that their chief trigger is people on “the sausage roll” talking about being paid. I have heard some choice and disgusting invective on this one.
    Preventing downward envy is a challenge for our society

  43. Christian Porter is first law Officer of land.

    He should have wholeheartedly embraced an independent inquiry into these allegations.
    Especially if he believes he is innocent and being unfairly accused.
    It’s a no brainer.
    Fact that he and Morrison have obscufated, speaks volumes.

  44. citizen:

    Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 9:09 am

    Mavis says:

    Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 8:56 am

    Jeez, if the hapless Robert goes to defence we’ll have happy-clappers in “Malfunction Junction” (aka, Russell Offices), The Lodge, and Yarralumla – the Holy Trinity.

    citizen says:

    [‘Wait until they declare Happyclapperism as the state religion with Margaret Court as the high priestess.’]

    Only be a matter of time now they’ve got the key gigs.

  46. MFW
    @MFWitches
    ·
    11m
    How the f@@ do we tolerate a federal government which operates itself SO F@@ in BADLY that not one but TWO of its ministers are off on “stress leave” because they cannot conform to the basic morals and ethics expected by the Australian people?

  47. Katherine Murphy has been tremendous on Insiders this morning. And Speers hasn’t been allowed to but in. That helps.

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