Note posts below this on latest developments in the Western Australian campaign and a new state poll from South Australia. In other polling news, we have the latest from a regular series on issue salience and a state poll from Tasmania that I don’t quite feel warrants a post of its own:
• The latest True Issues survey of issue salience from JWS Research records a slight moderation of the coronavirus-driven peculiarities of the mid-year results, in that 42% now rate health among the top three issues (down from 47% in June, but still well up on 24% in February) and 19% do so for environment (up three on last time, but still well down on 26% in February. However, a spike in concern about the economy (steady at 32%, compared with 18% in February) and employment and wages (up two to 30%, compared with 21% in February) has not abated. Nineteen per cent rate the federal government’s response to COVID-19 as very good and 37% as good, but state governments collectively fare better at 29% and 35%. Positive ratings are markedly lower in Victoria for both the federal and state governments. Plenty more detail here from the poll, which was conducted from February 18 to 22 from a sample of 1000.
• The latest quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania is little changed on the previous result in November, with the incumbent Liberals steady on 52%, Labor up two to 27% and the Greens up one to 14%, with the only complication to a static picture being a four point drop for “others” to 7%. Peter Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier is unchanged at 52-27. The poll was conducted by phone from Monday, February 15 to Tuesday, February 23, from a sample of 1000. Much analysis as always from Kevin Bonham.
Other relevant developments:
• The conventional wisdom that the election would be held in the second half of this year, most likely around September, was disturbed by an Age/Herald report last week that the Prime Minister had “told colleagues to plan for two federal budgets before the Coalition government heads to the polls”.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Warren Entsch, who has held the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt for the Liberals and the Liberal National Party outside of a one-term time-out from 2007 to 2010, has gone back on his decision to retire. The 70-year-old announced this term would be his last on the night of the 2019 election, but now feels it “incumbent on me during these uncertain times to continue to support our community and its residents”.
• The Advertiser reports the Prime Minister has told South Australian factional leaders they are expected to preselect a woman to succeed Nicolle Flint in Boothby. This presumably reduces the chances of the position going to state Environment Minister David Speirs, who said last week he was “pondering” a run. The Advertiser suggests the front runners are Rachel Swift, a factional moderate and infectious diseases expert who currently has the unwinnable fourth position on the Senate ticket, and Leah Blyth, a conservative and head of student services at Adelaide University. Another woman mentioned as a possibility by Tom Richardson of InDaily was Marion Themeliotis, Onkaparinga councillor and staffer to state Davenport MP Steve Murray.
Cat
The important thing to me is that the Democrats seem to be real serious about ending the Filibuster. If this is true a lot of trouble for the GOP as sensible policy gets passed like the HR1 Bill.
Frednk @ #1928 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:30 am
It certainly doesn’t happen if you don’t have the desire. Or you have managed to convince yourself, and others, to shoot for the wrong goal.
Frednk @ #1930 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:31 am
Oh? Did you not understand the bits about gas? Perhaps you could get Briefly to explain them to you?
Rex D
There have been a few suggestions that he should fire his publicity person. Pics in a plane with the window open? Standing in front of the jets?
guytaur @ #1920 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:58 am
To do so they need both Manchin and Sinema onside. They are progressing positively in that direction, mainly due to the Republicans not contributing one of their votes, not one, to the Covid Relief Bill and the inane stunt of Ron Johnson. That really opened Manchin’s eyes to the Republican’s aim to not practice what they preach wrt Bipartisanship.
Rossmcg @ #1905 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 7:43 am
Durack – a Liberal electorate. I think you’ll find this was the key criteria for getting funding. In fact, the only criteria. Massive own goal building on supporting Clive Palmer’s legal action. Librals obviously confident WA is in the bag, so not worth any effort.
lizzie @ #1923 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 12:04 pm
Pity they weren’t on.
Yes, yes, I know it’s a cruel thing to say but they were off and I was just fantasising.
Mid-terms landslide to the Dems.
JobKeeper is to be replaced with TaxLooter.
The clients are corporate donors to the Coalition parties.
Re Porter
The Govt has been peddling the line that the allegations against Porter have been investigated and found by the NSW Police to not warrant prosecution. According to the govt, the law has spoken and Porter must be presumed to be innocent.
Of course, that materially misrepresents the position. The now deceased complainant had provided a detailed written, but unsigned, statement of her recollection of the relevant events. Many of those that have read her account evidently regard it as credible. Even the NSW police may have been of that view.
Consider the following extract from last night’s 7.30 report interview by Leigh Sales of the head of the NSW Sex Crimes Unit DS Stacey Maloney:
LEIGH SALES: Another high-profile matter is the historic rape allegation against the Attorney-General. Is the New South Wales Police case closed, just for clarity, because she withdrew the complaint or because the complainant is now dead, or both?
STACEY MALONEY: Because she withdrew the complaint, our policy is that we always adhere to victim’s wishes. So at that point in time, she had written to my investigators at Child Abuse and Sex Crime Squad and indicated that she didn’t wish to take the matter any further.
Now we were hopeful that may continue but at that point she chose to have the matter closed at that point.
LEIGH SALES: Are cases ever pursued in sex crimes where a complainant is deceased?
STACEY MALONEY: You need admissible evidence to put that before a court and in this case, unfortunately, there was no admissible evidence to put forward to a court matter.
This suggests that the NSW Unit was ‘hopeful’ that the complainant would pursue the matter and thought it ‘unfortunate’ that she was unable to do so. This attitude in inconsistent with any notion that the complaint obviously lacked merit.
The cloud over Porter’s honesty and integrity remains. His fitness to hold a high public office is in doubt. On the known facts, it is unlikely that ANY investigation will be able to conclusively show that the deceased’s recollections were materially false. That may explain, in part, why both Porter and the PM are fervently opposed to any further inquiry. Normally, in these circumstances, an accused would actively seek to be vindicated. Porter and the PM may well also be concerned that further inquiries might turn up more material damaging to Porter.
Finally, if there is to be an inquiry, it will be crucial for it to be genuinely independent. The PM would do well to seek the views of both Porter and the family of the deceased before deciding on how to proceed. The interested parties need to have confidence in the process. What we do not need is any form of ‘independent’ expert shopping by the PM.
Cat
That and progressives running campaigns linking the Filibuster blocking the Minimum Wage rise Climate Legislation and many others.
Polling has come out that shows those two Senators don’t have voters support to keep the filibuster as a result.
https://www.vox.com/22320606/arizona-kyrsten-sinema-poll-filibuster
A shopping mall is playing the advert “Australia’s vaccination program is underway”.
Can’t deny that but it’s also under resourced, underwhelming, over hyped, under strain and under attack by doctors and others who actually have to deliver the injections.
Goodness me.
China is very very angry with Britain because Xi does not do a free media. Spitting chips.
Xi does draconian censorship and hates being reminded about it.
Still, the Right in various countries are, for once taking up the cudgels on press freedoms.
The Left? Silent, as usual.
Roaldan
Durack is safe as Liberal and shouldn’t need propping up though maybe the government is finally waking up to what many of us know: Melissa Price is an embarrassment.
BW
Take your lies and shove them where the sun does not shine.
lizzie @ #1959 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 12:04 pm
When he leaves the airport he should tell the driver to go directly to Govt House and call an election.
He is killing the spirit of Australians.
This package today is simply a handout to Qantas and Virgin.
Just remember how much the two airlines supported their staff when they both were handed millions in jobkeeper payments.
Mass redundancy and contracting out of jobs to labor hire.
This is just another corporate handout.
Speaking of right wing. Nikki Savva has an article in the Australian detailing why Porter and Reynolds must go.
C@tmommasays: Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 11:55 am
phoenixRED,
They’re turning up the heat in Georgia as well:
https://youtu.be/fd-TOocqDms
*******************************************
Thanks C@tmomma
Maybe, just maybe …….. the Trumps chickens are about to come home to roost
Trump is finally learning that being president was a huge mistake — here’s why
In a column for the Daily Beast, longtime political observer Michael Tomasky claimed it is likely that Donald Trump is regretting winning election in 2016 and, now that he is out of office, he is finding himself facing an avalanche of civil lawsuits and federal investigations into his business dealings and tax returns because of the scrutiny he brought on himself.
Pointing to Trump watching Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. building up a case against him, the columnist said that — along with a massive load of debt coming due — has to have Trump in a panic.
“Trump has $421 million in debt (most of it presumed to be owed to Deutsche Bank) coming due soon,” Tomasky reported. ” During the 2020 campaign, he scoffed at the debt, because of course to hear him tell it $400 million is a ‘peanut.’ No one knows the truth right now, except maybe some investigators in the Manhattan DA’s office, but it would hardly be shocking to learn that Trump just doesn’t have the money.”
Writing, “If he’d never become president, he could have carried on lying and swindling people just as before, and no one would be the wiser,” Tomasky then added, “But when you’re president, certain checks and balances kick in. You’re being watched more closely. Lying about your tax returns being ‘under audit’ will keep the dogs at bay for a while, but they’ll bash down the door eventually. Private citizen Trump paying off Stormy Daniels? Feh, who cares. Candidate/President Trump doing it? Against the law. And so on and so on and so on.”
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-lawsuits-2651003328/
citizen @ #1967 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 12:09 pm
There was no shortage of coverage of Trumps immense failings while in office.
Not the case here with Aussie Trump.
Australia is being systematically murdered by a cartel of corruption.
guytaur @ #1973 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 12:13 pm
The right have dispensed with Westminster traditions.
‘Jaeger says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 9:00 am
Scientists hope to find way to stop mass eucalypt dieback in Australian alps
Researchers know insects are eating the gums but they want to discover the underlying stressor leaving the trees open to attack
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/10/hopes-nsw-grant-of-12m-will-open-door-to-finding-cause-of-eucalypt-dieback‘
An interesting one. Changing climate parameters look like a good place to start.
‘Doyley says:
This is just another corporate handout.’
Yep. By the most corrupt federal government since Federation.
Rex Douglas
The Rodent took them out the back and shot them. The Mad Monk rounded up stragglers which had escaped the previous massacre and did likewise.
I think you find what happens with the Filibuster is that it is reformed to make harder to use.
Pre-1970 or so, the rule was a senator or senators could keep a debate going as long as kept speaking on the topic; hence the senators reading from the phonebook wearing diapers for 24 hours to attempt to stop the civil rights bills in the 50s and 60s. Two thirds of the senate was required to end the debate.
Then it became a senator only had to threaten to filibuster and only 60 senators were required to override it. I am not sure why the change was made, probably the senators were getting too old to wait around for other senator to collapse from speaking for 24 hours. But that has meant that the filibuster has been applied a lot more than it ever was in the past.
So I suspect that it will be kept but rolled back to something like the old style. Perhaps requiring 40 senators to sit in the chamber to block a bill or make it only 60% of the present senators which would mean that senators go home or something like that. It is not like the rules have not changed in the past and can’t never be changed.
https://twitter.com/danilic/status/1369599503133675527/photo/1
Many thanks to Frednk for your fortitude in trying to reason with P1. However, I think that N has the right idea. Best not to engage. Even when Dandy Murray successfully decapitates its argument @ 11.57, I fear that, like Hydra, it will reappear strengthened by its self belief in its infallibility.
Goodness me.
China is very very angry with Britain because Xi does not do a free media. Spitting chips.
Xi does draconian censorship and hates being reminded about it.
Still, the Right in various countries are, for once taking up the cudgels on press freedoms.
The Left?
Well, anyone can make up their own list of prominent left intellectuals who have publicly spoken out against Xi’s censorship. Quite a few Lefties on Bludger have spoken out without qualification and without reservation.
The truth is that the Left loves to rail at Murdoch (rightfully, IMO) but is more or less systematically silent about the Chinese MSM which exists for the main purpose of doing hagiography for the world’s worst dictator.
Douglas and Milko @ #1977 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:25 am
#SicKhunt ?
guytaur @ #1903 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 7:40 am
When rounded to the nearest billion, Australia has clearly met it’s vaccination targets.
😆
We have gone beyond parody:
Was Morrison still holding a rolling pin while he was piloting the Airbus?
Vogan,
I finally managed to post it!
‘lizzie says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 12:29 pm
Madeleine Morris
@Mad_Morris
·
21m
My Uber driver gleefully describing to me how he took this low-paying job to avoid paying his wife child support. He has lots of debts from taking her to court for custody apparently. Despite my protestations he doesn’t seem to see this as an arsehole move.
In matters such as these making a point by snipping out part of the picture is a waste of space, IMO.
Poliphilli,
One thing I notice is that P1 never voluntarily engages with Dandy M, the expert.
While not being a Sustainable Australia supporter, she is definitely on a mission to sell their energy platform.
D&M
Sick Hunt in hospital?
At least someone is having some fun.
Danama P
People on twitter actually thought it was a parody account.
Jenna Price just checked. as she says, it is “absolutely true blue”.
Douglas and Milko @ #1987 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:31 am
It was funny a couple of weeks back when dandy replied to a P1 ” I’m all ears ” to a statement P1 had made that Dandy was wrong but it would be a waste of time explaining why, whilst at the same time demanding multiple time that Socrates answer their question.
Poliphili @ #1949 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 12:26 pm
It’s the Smarm gene. Player One has it in the Double Dominant form.
Dandy Murray @ #1949 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:57 am
I won’t go through this in detail again. You can just re-read my posts. By all means ask for clarification on any specific points you didn’t understand.
Essentially, like some others here, you are arguing for shutting down fossil-fueled power on the basis of economic criteria – i.e. when and if they become economically unviable – and claiming this is good enough. But this is hardly ambitious. We should instead be shutting down fossil-fueled power plants – especially coal ones, and most especially brown coal ones – as soon as practical, even though they are still economically viable. This is what the science says we should do. Yallourn will still be economically viable for 7 more years, by latest estimates. Do we really want to burn brown coal for at least another 7 years? And black coal for even longer after that? Do we need to do so?
We are pursuing the wrong goal, and wondering why the world keeps shaking their heads at us. Soon, the world will stop bothering, and simply act. In fact, the EU is already doing so.
An ETS or EIS would be one way to address the correct goal. Our current approach will not. Sure, it minimizes our cost and effort, but not our C02 emissions.
boerwar @ #1988 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:32 am
Incorrect capitalization .
‘Roll out the pork barrel…’
The most corrupt federal government since Federation has slashed ANAO funding. But it cannot stop the ANAO from using its stench detectors to prioritize its audits.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-11/audit-of-peter-dutton-grant-scheme-being-considered-by-anao/13235664
Victoria
I’ve been saying this all along. The first lockdown was in spite of Morrison. And we ended the first lockdown too soon, because of Morrison. People obviously approve of decisions that saw covid all but eliminated and its time people were made aware of the fact that Scomo would have had us end up like England. We could have been where we are now (covid all but eliminated) back in last July.
C@t
What was Ron Johnson’s inane stunt?
@joshBBornstein tweets
I just told the Senate inquiry into Wage Theft that the cause of the exponential rise of underpayment is the collapse in employee bargaining power at work.
D&M @12:25
Don’t read “sick hunt” too quickly 🙂