Note posts below this on latest developments in the Western Australian campaign and a new state poll from South Australia. In other polling news, we have the latest from a regular series on issue salience and a state poll from Tasmania that I don’t quite feel warrants a post of its own:
• The latest True Issues survey of issue salience from JWS Research records a slight moderation of the coronavirus-driven peculiarities of the mid-year results, in that 42% now rate health among the top three issues (down from 47% in June, but still well up on 24% in February) and 19% do so for environment (up three on last time, but still well down on 26% in February. However, a spike in concern about the economy (steady at 32%, compared with 18% in February) and employment and wages (up two to 30%, compared with 21% in February) has not abated. Nineteen per cent rate the federal government’s response to COVID-19 as very good and 37% as good, but state governments collectively fare better at 29% and 35%. Positive ratings are markedly lower in Victoria for both the federal and state governments. Plenty more detail here from the poll, which was conducted from February 18 to 22 from a sample of 1000.
• The latest quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania is little changed on the previous result in November, with the incumbent Liberals steady on 52%, Labor up two to 27% and the Greens up one to 14%, with the only complication to a static picture being a four point drop for “others” to 7%. Peter Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier is unchanged at 52-27. The poll was conducted by phone from Monday, February 15 to Tuesday, February 23, from a sample of 1000. Much analysis as always from Kevin Bonham.
Other relevant developments:
• The conventional wisdom that the election would be held in the second half of this year, most likely around September, was disturbed by an Age/Herald report last week that the Prime Minister had “told colleagues to plan for two federal budgets before the Coalition government heads to the polls”.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Warren Entsch, who has held the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt for the Liberals and the Liberal National Party outside of a one-term time-out from 2007 to 2010, has gone back on his decision to retire. The 70-year-old announced this term would be his last on the night of the 2019 election, but now feels it “incumbent on me during these uncertain times to continue to support our community and its residents”.
• The Advertiser reports the Prime Minister has told South Australian factional leaders they are expected to preselect a woman to succeed Nicolle Flint in Boothby. This presumably reduces the chances of the position going to state Environment Minister David Speirs, who said last week he was “pondering” a run. The Advertiser suggests the front runners are Rachel Swift, a factional moderate and infectious diseases expert who currently has the unwinnable fourth position on the Senate ticket, and Leah Blyth, a conservative and head of student services at Adelaide University. Another woman mentioned as a possibility by Tom Richardson of InDaily was Marion Themeliotis, Onkaparinga councillor and staffer to state Davenport MP Steve Murray.
Good Morning
P1
Your arguments about gas are like those by nuclear power advocates.
Outdated and misleading about the future viability of the fuel as nuclear power advocates.
The very articles that have been published with the closure of the Yallorn plant make it clear renewables with batteries are the market choice.
That’s the hardly ideological energy company itself telling you what their business analysis is.
@DanielBleakey tweets
$1.2 billion for half priced airfares “cool and normal”
$0.5 billion for aged care “will test the budget”
______________________
@jrhennesy tweets
Cheap Flights To Marginal Seats, I love that song
@TheShovel tweets
When rounding up, Australia is just 4 million vaccinations short of its target of 4 million vaccinations by the end of March
I suspect the majority of cheap airline tickets will be bought online. This will do nothing for travel agents.
Broome is the only WA place on the airfare list.
The town was full as last year when only WA people could go there.
Goodness knows where any extras will be staying.
Bit overrated anyway in my view.
Socrates @ #1898 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:18 am
Of course I did. I have no reason to doubt it, I merely point out that even so we don’t even have enough renewable energy planned to replace our current baseload fossil fuel generation, let alone the expected increase in demand due to electric vehicles, which is significant.
Clearly, we need much more investment in renewables than we currently have in the planning stages. And, in the meantime, we could also usefully reduce our C02 emissions by using more gas in place of coal.
Your problem is that you are assuming all we need to do is replace fossil fuel generators as they reach end of life, and that bringing forward that end of life by a few years is therefore great news. As I said, it is good news, but it is not great news. It is nowhere near ambitious enough. This belief is shared by those countries actually working to reduce emissions, such as the EU and the US. We are quite rightly regarded by the rest of the world as freeloaders in this area, and here we are congratulating ourselves on an illusory “gain” that really means little or nothing in practice, since it is likely that at least some of the resulting generation shortfall will be replaced by other fossil fuel generators, not renewables (unless sufficient of the renewables projects currently in the planning stages are completed in the same time frame).
This would indeed be great news … if your goal is to reach zero emissions at minimum cost and effort. However, if your goal is to minimize C02 emissions, then it is not such great news, since it does not do that. Why is this crucial point so often overlooked?
No to all of the above.
As with so many here, when your basic assumptions are challenged, you start getting snarky.
We have all made a big assumption, that Morrison’s promise goes further than a photo opportunity.
guytaur says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 10:32 am
Good Morning
P1
Your arguments ….
The Player has never seen an innovation in energy to which they have not taken an immediate, scathing dislike. They are gas-lighters. Their purpose is to diss every effort taken towards re-constructing the energy sectors as a complement to dissing Labor whenever possible.
They really are not worth the trouble of reading and still less of debating.
I carry no brief for Senator Reynolds, but why the fuck should she pick up the tab for legal services when any bungling of the Higgins investigation occurred in her role as the Minister with responsibility for managing the staff concerned? IMO, the government should be paying for any legal; services that she needs regarding the execution of her functions as a minister.
Why has ScoMo put this pressure on her, just because Porter (whose alleged misconduct occurred 33 years ago) has to pay for his own defo lawyers?
What’s the bet that Reynolds ends up being removed whereas Porter is allowed to quietly exit on his own terms at some point.
More examples of the Liberal patriarchy at work.
Disgusting.
The ACCC is seeking submissions from consumers and industry participants about choice screens, which give users a choice of internet search services on mobiles and tablets, rather than a pre-selected search service, and about the supply of web browsers in Australia.
The submissions to an issues paper, released today, will inform an upcoming report on the impact of default settings and pre-installation of search services and web browsers on consumer choice and competition.
The report, to be finalised later this year, will also outline the current roll out of choice screens for search services on Android devices in Europe and examine what measures other than choice screens could encourage competition and improve consumer choice for search services and web browsers in Australia.
Manufacturers usually supply desktops, tablets and mobiles with a pre-installed operating system, including a specific web browser. Web browsers, in turn, often select a default search service, which is embedded within the browser.
The Digital Platforms Inquiry Final Report found the Google Chrome browser is pre-installed on nearly all Android devices and that Google Search was the default option on Google Chrome and Apple’s Safari mobile browsers, making it the default search on over 95 per cent of mobile devices. It also found that substantial payments are made by Google to Apple for Google search to be the default on Safari.
A 2020 complaint filed by the US Department of Justice against Google claims that Google pays Apple an estimated US $8-12 billion to be the default search service on Apple Safari and on certain Apple services (such as Siri and Spotlight on the iPhone).
I got my Cheap Flight and a 14 day Quarantine stay.
N @ #1908 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:47 am
You have tried and failed. That’s hardly my fault.
There’s no doubt that cheap gas has led to less coal being burned in the New York area leading to significant emission reductions in a region where solar potential is limited, at least for a good part of the year.
P1
Factually you tried and failed as renewables with battery is the business decision by the energy company making the real world market decision.
As it closes Yallorn down
P1
Like it or not the replacement rate of coal fired generations is pretty much limited by the maximum build rate that can be achieved for solar and wind. And the rate being achieved will force the early retirement of many coal fired stations.
Gas is restricted by a pipeline delivery system built decades ago.
There is no desire to increase the pipeline capacity, anyone with any sense can see gas generation has a limited life and assets created will be stranded.
The is some talk on installing an importation facility, I don’t think it has gone anywhere. Once again anyone with any knowledge of what is going on can see it will be a stranded asset.
Your gas gas gas dream and that of the Liberal government is not going to happen.
lizzie @ #1873 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 9:13 am
Great, send him up in one and set the autopilot to dive.
FredNK
P1 is being betrayed by the Liberals. As Mr Rudd pointed out in his National Press Club Address the LNP have failed to promote hydrogen gas investment.
I seem to remember some attempt by a chief scientist to try and change that
Akon says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 10:55 am
There’s no doubt that cheap gas has led to less coal being burned in the New York area leading to significant emission reductions in a region where solar potential is limited, at least for a good part of the year
There is no doubt, 10 years ago P1’s argument had some merit. All gone now, the US is creating renewable assets at a greater rate than Australia. Biden is planning on going faster.
The world is seriously changing. Those arguing for gas are about a decade out, those for coal 1/2 a century. The Liberals are doing well to be only a decade out, and it seem appropriate that the National party is 1/2 a century out.
guytaur
My own view is energy will end up being exported as ammonia. Hydrogen is too hard.
A_E,
The way I read the article, Reynolds legal costs relate to potentially defaming Ms Higgins, not her ministerial duties:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/embattled-ministers-porter-and-reynolds-paying-their-own-legal-costs-20210310-p579kx.html
Last 7 days 0.007% gas used in Victoria.
“ The way I read the article, Reynolds legal costs relate to potentially defaming Ms Higgins, not her ministerial duties”
The alleged defaming comments were said to staffers apparently. Communicating to her staff views as to a former staffer that has direct political implications as to her conduct as a minister are likely to be construed as statements made in the execution of her duties.
David Pakman outlines how the right is using culture war. I agree with him that I don’t think they are trying to kill off the Fox audience.
Tucker Carlson Says Listening to Doctors is Gay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyrGw4Jhxi0
“Loose lips sink ships.”
@BernardKeane tweets
I haven’t seen any of the usual denouncers of “cancel culture” decry the ousting of Annette Kimmitt.
But I’m assuming that means they’re just taking their time to prepare some especially savage roasts for the “snowflakes” at Minters.
Frednk @ #1915 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:57 am
What you are saying, just like so many others here keep saying (either explicitly or by implication) is that achieving zero emissions is the goal, and as long as we do that, it is ok if we achieve it at minimum cost and effort.
Great. Except that this is not the goal. Never has been. As I continually point out here, the goal is to limit global warming, and the way we are trying to do that is by minimizing total CO2 emissions. Always has been.
Once you have the right goal in mind, you begin to understand that we are not going about things the right way to achieving it. Most of the rest of the world gets this. It is what the Paris Agreement is all about. It is why even countries that do not expect to achieve zero emissions can meet their Paris Agreement commitments, and it is why Australia is regarded as such a laggard.
In Australia, we are fed so much bullshit on the issue that many people lose track of the real goal. Which is often the intent, of course.
Frednk @ #1915 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:57 am
What about the Labor party’s? Or have you still not read any Labor energy policy documents?
P1
You along with others don’t seem to able to grasp human resources are needed to build stuff. A desire for supply does not mean supply happens.
Lizzie wrote:
They DO get it, unfortunately.
Endless Insiders-type discussion among journalists in print, internet and broadcast media have conditioned the reading, listening and viewing public into believing that it’s not policies and performance that count in measuring the quality of leadership, it’s how well politicians talk themselves out of trouble that’s key.
Wall-to-wall Reality TV has conditioned audiences everywhere into suspending judgement and disbelief when watching the box, allowing them to pretend that what they are seeing on the screen in front of them involves real people, real emotions and real situations.
When pressed, the more honest and intelligent viewers will confess to knowing it’s all fake, but claim the right to experience guilty pleasure pretending it’s real. Fair enough, if that’s as far as it went. But it goes much further.
The same people who make and commission Reality TV also bring us the news. It’s the same camera people, floor directors, producers, financiers and in recent years, talent (Dancing With The Stars anyone?) who work in both types of show, sometimes simultaneously.
They cross-pollinate between the two genres. They use “news” techniques to make it seem that Reality TV programs are just documentaries with slightly up-market production values. They use “Reality TV” techniques to make News programs more dramatic, emotional, televisual and interesting.
“Insiders” types very rarely talk about policy or governance. They mostly talk about how so-and-so is “selling” something, or “going to do” something, not whether it’ll ever get done (which it probably won’t but, if it does, they criticise whoever does it for doing too much). It’s so much easier to sell “Politics” as entertainment if the boring stuff like “policy” is ignored, replaced by color and movement.
Ultimately even the most sophisticated of viewers and readers succumb. They come to accept, indeed fully embrace the idea, that the best politician is one who is best at faking sincerity and purpose, not one who actually gets things done.
The final victory of the way Media covers politics is to fool its consumers into accepting Media’s shallow, flashy but entertaining and cheap-to-produce format, in place of serious coverage that involves actual effort. What could be cheaper to produce than four people sitting in a studio on lounge chairs spouting, and actually praising the virtue of bullshit? It’s not only Sky News, but it’s Insiders, and it’s The Project too (plus every current affairs and breakfast TV show in existence).
That horrible, ubiquotous phrase (and attitude) “Perception is everything” is the perfect example of that victory. Hilariously, every single Politics consumer will swear that it hadn’t won them over, only the other bloke. About 1% of them are telling the truth. The other 99% stick safely with the herd.
It’s probably apparent that I reckon I’m a “one-percenter” myself. Alas, the rot has set in too far for me.
Tudge’s triumph this morning was not in lying in order to save his own hypocritical skin. It was in getting enough of his target audience to accept that the lie, and the smooth, glib way it was put over, was literally the reason they’d vote for him.
Player One says:
..
What about the Labor party’s? Or have you still not read any Labor energy policy documents?
Probable unlike you I have.
@AmyRemeikis tweets
What do these tourism areas all have in common? Oh nothing. Just that they’re seats the government either wants to win, or needs to keep ♀️
@stilgherrian Tweets
What if the govt just gave everyone some money and then they’d buy whatever they needed or wanted without govt having to even think about it? The market would respond without being “manipulated”. Govt wouldn’t be “picking winners and losers”, which they say they don’t like.
Massive ego!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/i-m-not-going-anywhere-barilaro-to-remain-nationals-leader-run-in-2023-election-20210310-p579iq.html
“It’s March, I’m still here and I’ve decided I am not going anywhere,” Mr Barilaro said.
Beware the Pomgolian mutant……………..
Covid-19 news: UK variant up to twice as deadly, study suggests
The B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant first identified in the UK is between 32 and 104 per cent more deadly than previous dominant variants, according to a study published in the BMJ. The study compared death rates among people in the UK infected with B.1.1.7 or other variants of the coronavirus. Earlier research has indicated the variant is also more transmissible. “The precise mechanisms responsible for increased mortality associated with the variant remain uncertain but could be related to higher levels of virus replication as well as increased transmissibility,” said Lawrence Young at the University of Warwick in a statement.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-uk-variant-up-to-twice-as-deadly-study-suggests/
Bushfire
Very true, I’m afraid. Unless it has drama, lights and music, the ‘news’ doesn’t get attention.
The Govt has put more effort into this travel announceable than the findings of their Aged Care Royal Commission.
Plus a pic of Scotty in the front of an aeroplane. How good’s that. (I’ll be merciful and not copy it.)
I presume that whatever you save on half-priced airfare will be more than gobbled up by over-priced tourism operators making up for lost profits …?
guytaur @ #1892 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:16 am
You have to agree with this also:
https://thebulwark.com/the-gop-and-conservative-media-now-resemble-the-communists-of-my-youth/
lizzie @ #1904 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:38 am
Thank you, lizzie! 🙂
lizzie @ #1940 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:38 am
Thankyou for your consideration.
The less I see of the radical creep the better.
Lizzie
The demographics is shifting. The myth that people don’t care about politics has been changed. It may have been four years of the car crash effect with Trump.
That audience has seen the links to strong man politics from Putin Trump etc to Morrison.
The wake up call seems to have been rape allegations in Australia.
That 2% shift Labor needs to break through that mentality combined with right wing media dominance seems to have happened.
Palasczcuk in Queensland is using her state power not only to do the right thing morally and ethically in looking at the issue of the criminal justice systems role in dealing with the rape crime. It’s also a move that gives Labor a campaign tool in Queensland for the next election.
That’s the type of thing that will change votes in an apathetic voter.
I can’t bear it. He posed in the cabin with a pilot’s hat on. With a woman pilot, of course.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1914 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:48 am
Taxpayers shouldn’t have to cover for a Ministers defaming personal attacks on another. That’s NOT her job.
New York prosecutors make major move against Donald Trump
It’s been widely documented that the Manhattan District Attorney’s office has met with Michael Cohen several times in the criminal case against Donald Trump.
Cohen met again with the Manhattan DA’s office today, for the seventh time, according to Reuters.
Notably, this is the first known instance of Manhattan prosecutors meeting with Michael Cohen since they acquired Donald Trump’s tax returns from his accounting firm two weeks ago. This also comes after multiple major media outlets recently reported that prosecutors are looking to squeeze Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg into flipping on Donald Trump and his family. So this meeting with Cohen, within the context of all of the above, has to be seen as a major move against Trump.
John Dean, a key witness in the Watergate scandal, tweeted this in response to the news: “From personal experience as a key witness I assure you that you do not visit a prosecutor’s office 7 times if they are not planning to indict those about whom you have knowledge. It is only a matter of how many days until DA Vance indicts Donald & Co.”
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/new-york-prosecutors-make-major-move-against-donald-trump-only-a-matter-of-how-many-days-until-hes-indicted/37311/
Lizzie
It may help to look at all the ridicule on twitter.
So far I like Annabel Crabbe’s best
@annabelcrabbe tweets
“I don’t fly a….”
With the passing of the $1.9T rescue package, the Dems have all but guaranteed increased majorities at the mid-terms.
Rex Douglas @ #1915 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 11:52 am
Not if the sprawling Republican attack on Voting Rights being enacted by Republican State-controlled legislatures is a success. That’s why the passage of HR1 is SO important.
phoenixRED,
They’re turning up the heat in Georgia as well:
https://youtu.be/fd-TOocqDms
P1
The Yallourn early closure announcement is good news. But let’s not get too excited – by itself, it is not great news, because (a) it is still not actually closing for many years yet, and (b) there has been no announcement of any new investment in renewables to replace it. Just yet another expensive “big battery”.
Jesus H. Christ on a bicycle with a top hat- you have it arse about yet again, P1.
Yallourn is shutting because of existing and planned renewable investments. It is the responder, not the leader.
There is quite a bit of excess renewable generation capacity already installed in the NEM. Annual generation curtailment in the year to July 2020 was at about 5% for utility-scale solar and 4.5% for wind, and in South Australia it is about 10% and wind 8%, respectively. Some of this is being curtailed on transmission constraints (in the rhombus of regret), but most of it is being curtailed down (semi-scheduled) because of negative price bids from plant like Yallourn pushing them out of merit order.
Clearly Yallourn’s operators don’t expect to be able to bear the negative price bids much longer, so they are planning an exit. Much of their missing power output will be filled with renewable generation that is already built.
If the ‘For the People’ act gets passed the GOP as it is now will be history.