Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll finds Scott Morrison’s commanding personal ratings improving still further, without doing anything to improve a seemingly precarious position on voting intention.

As brought to you by The Australian, Newspoll maintains its sedentary ways in its latest poll, which repeats the previous result three weeks ago in recording a dead head on two-party preferred. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, while the Coalition on 42%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 3% are all unchanged. Despite a seemingly difficult week for Scott Morrison, he gains one on approval to 64% and drops one on disapproval to 32% and widens his lead as preferred prime minister from 57-29 to 61-26, as Anthony Albanese drops three on approval to 38% and rises two on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504.

There was also a poll on Friday from Roy Morgan, which sometimes publishes its regular federal voting intention polling and sometimes doesn’t. In this case Labor was credited with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 34.5%, the Greens 13% and One Nation 3.5%. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends online and by phone from a sample of 2824.

Between Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential Research, there are now three pollsters who rate the situation as steady of with Labor fractionally ahead. This is reflected in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, now updated with the above results on both the voting intention and leadership rating trends, which has Labor edging ahead to a 50.2-49.8 lead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,113 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. And what do you know, here’s Anthony Albanese giving a speech TODAY on the subject Firefox/TA/AM says only The Greens care about:

    Mr Albanese will use a speech to the Church Community Restoration Project on Monday to say Australia “shouldn’t walk past those who are in need or suffering” as it emerges from the first recession in 30 years and the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

    … Mr Albanese will tell the gathering, facilitated by the Australian Christian Higher Education Alliance, that “we’re all in this together” cannot be “just be an empty mantra” but “a guiding philosophy”.

    … “Ultimately, it boils down to a fair go for all. It is a sense of fairness that Jesus’ teaching radiates throughout the books of the New Testament,” Mr Albanese will say according to the draft notes of the speech.

    … Quoting Pope Francis, Mr Albanese said there was a “powerful overlap between those values and Labor values as we work on how to get through this pandemic”.

    “What we have is a rare opportunity – in all likelihood a once-in-a-lifetime chance – to shape the future and emerge from the pandemic as a better, fairer nation,” he said.

    Mr Albanese said US President Joe Biden, too, had appealed to Americans whose vote was guided by religious values during his tilt at the White House and said the “common good is what we must all strive for”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-courts-christian-groups-in-social-justice-pitch-20210221-p574e8.html

  3. I am not appreciating the swathe of pre posted comments, repeated in full, sometimes twice, which appear before the short jottings of the last poster in the sequence.

  4. Mundo, how are you going to watch Penny on the news tonight when you’ve just announced that you’re going into a media lockdown for your mental health ?


  5. lizzie says:
    Monday, February 22, 2021 at 9:35 am

    And I disagree with the acceptance of AstraZenica “because at least you won’t die.” At my age, I don’t need to add any more suffering to my life.

    Your choice is to wait until there are free stocks of the alternative, that will probable happen before we get local production going as it needs a complete new line.

    USA should be vaccinated in about 14 months at their current rate.

  6. Fulvio Sammut @ #153 Monday, February 22nd, 2021 – 11:28 am

    I am not appreciating the swathe of pre posted comments, repeated in full, sometimes twice, which appear before the short jottings of the last poster in the sequence.

    There is NO other way to do it! If you want to reply to a post since the latest Word Press ‘update’, that’s what you get when you post your reply!

    Or, if you want to waste heaps of your time you can go through the reply and block out what you want to leave out, but let me tell you, that is very time consuming.

  8. The 2008 Olympics were a soft power victory for Beijing. A successful Games in 2022 could validate its authoritarian system

    Facing not just anger over the treatment of Tibetans, but outright claims of “genocide” against Uyghurs in Xinjiang, China’s leaders may find it far harder to surf the wave of criticism this year than in 2008.

    “The likelihood of a 2022 Olympic boycott is increasing by the day,” said Natasha Kassam, an analyst at the Lowy Institute, in Sydney, and a former Australian diplomat in China.

    “Public opinion around the world has soured towards China, as grim realities of the Party-state become common knowledge. The level of public concern about human rights abuses in China in 2022 dwarfs the outrage around the 2008 Games,” she said.

    Thirteen years ago, the Olympic slogan “One World, One Dream” sounded like the type of pablum typical of the Games anywhere. But now people may be a lot more wary of what exactly that Chinese “dream” might look like as China leans further into its authoritarian style of governance — and after Xi himself adopted that phrase as one of his key slogans.

    In 2008, Beijing’s hosting of the Games was seen as a potential step towards further opening up and political reform in China, but the opposite has proved to be the case.

    While China seems unlikely to even pay lip service to the idea of liberalization this time around, foreign governments will also be far more skeptical of any possible gains, after patting themselves on the back ahead of 2008 only to be embarrassed when few of the supposed concessions were realized.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/21/asia/beijing-olympics-2008-2022-soft-power-dst-intl-hnk/index.html

  10. More rage against the Greens from the lovely people who post here. More parroting from those who’ve never had an original thought in their lives. More old-fashioned conservatives trying so damn hard to be hip. So cringe.

  13. ‘dave says:
    Monday, February 22, 2021 at 11:34 am

    Thirteen years ago, the Olympic slogan “One World, One Dream”…

    Going by his actions and his threats, Xi’s ambition is ‘One World, One Nightmare.’

    I am certain that the Left, with its total commitment to human rights, to the rights of women, to the rights of minorities, to the rights of LGBTIQ and to the rights of children will rise as one to demand a boycott of Xi’s Winter Games.

  14. “Looking forward to seeing Penny on the evening news letting it rip at the extraordinary press conference she called to vent her spleen.”

    I’m with N on this. To the constant carper, piss or get off the pot.

  15. C@t

    It has become irritating. Perhaps if you just referred to the subject and time of the post, the bright ones could look it up for themselves.

  17. I think that if you have a complaint about another poster, you should take it to William rather than join in what has essentially become pack harrassment of an individual. There’s no justification for such behaviour. “They’re a crazy, bad person” is not an excuse for vigilante mob “justice”.

  18. lizzie @ #165 Monday, February 22nd, 2021 – 11:47 am

    C@t

    It has become irritating. Perhaps if you just referred to the subject and time of the post, the bright ones could look it up for themselves.

    Think how irritating it is to me! The old system worked perfectly well. 😡

    But to your point, it’s laborious but I guess I’ll have to do it so as to stop irritating others.

  19. An interesting development:

    Hugo Lowell
    @hugolowell
    One of the leaders in the Oath Keepers conspiracy in the US Capitol attack is claiming she met with Secret Service agents on Jan. 6 — tying the White House closer to the insurrection than previously known.

    Attorneys for Oath Keeper Jessica Watkins said in a filing that she didn’t intend to overthrow the government because she thought she would “have a role” if and when Trump invoked the Insurrection Act.

  20. I thought Firefox was banned for being a recalcitrantly nasty thing.

    Because he’s an obsessive, extremely unwell individual, he keeps a collection of sock-puppets and, if he burns through those, he’ll just create more accounts and then just post innocuous comments to get posting approval, then take the mask off again, until getting banned again. Rinse, repeat. It’s quite an impressive effort to signal that you’re a complete loser.

    Maybe we’ll get treated to a tantrum about how we’re censoring him by disagreeing with him and calling out his blatant lies, and that he’s allowed to do whatever he wants because Pegasus was bullied. Or maybe he’ll make a hilariously embarrassing attempt at doxing one of us. Or maybe he will offer an ultimatum to William, despite having absolutely no leverage whatsoever. Or he’ll spit the dummy and decide to leave but beg for Twitter followers on his way out.

    All of the above are things he has done before.

  21. The pressure in on Morison and his cronies to decide whether they will call the election this year around october or wait another 6 months till April 2022.

  22. This poll is a good result for Labor and Albanese.

    Despite having the corrupted OTIS group as dead weight holding him back, Albanese is poised at 50-50 to move ahead of a desperate Morrison who won’t be able to hold back the tide of a growing sense of him being a blustering empty suit.

    I expect Labor to win the next election, despite OTIS and Shorten and Plibersek pushing their own agenda’s.

  24. DN

    “They’re a crazy, bad person” is not an excuse for vigilante “justice”.

    ______________________________

    What do you mean by vigilante justice?

    This:

    “someone who takes the law into his/her own hands by trying and/or punishing another person without any legal authority”?

    In which case, it would be good if you could actually identify a single act of ‘taking the law into my own hands’, rather than throw around a phrase that sounds good and makes you look morally upright without actually reflecting its correct meaning.

  25. The pressure in on Morison and his cronies to decide whether they will call the election this year around october or wait another 6 months till April 2022.

    It’s all about long term economic forecasts. If they feel uncertain about the shape of things in 2022, they’ll go this year, if they think things will be fine, they’ll take their time.

    While some observe going earlier might make them look opportunistic, I don’t think that would hurt them electorally. There will be some spin about it being necessary and the media will report it straight without the cynicism they’d show a Labor PM if they did that.

  27. I expect Labor to win the next election, despite OTIS and Shorten and Plibersek pushing their own agenda’s.

    What exactly has Plibersek done that’s upset you?

  29. Another interesting point will be seen if Australians do support governments that put people lives over the economy, if they do then the federal libs/nats will be done like the State/territorys Libs/nats opposition who support economy over people lives.

  30. ‘I think that if you have a complaint about another poster, you should take it to William rather than join in what has essentially become pack harrassment of an individual. There’s no justification for such behaviour. “They’re a crazy, bad person” is not an excuse for vigilante “justice”.’

    Thanks. I’d also like to take this opportunity to thank Rex, P1, Quoll, Guytaur, and all the rest who have seen this for what it really is, irrespective of whether they agree with me on the issues or not. You are good people. Cheers.

  33. Rex, when Ged was nominated for Batman by Shorten, you referred to her as a tired old entitled union hack. You’re very flexible.

  35. Rex Douglas @ #178 Monday, February 22nd, 2021 – 12:04 pm

    Why the snark ?

    Sorry, it was not intended as snark. I was just amused by your optimism.

    50-50 2PP against the most corrupt and useless government we have ever had, which is drowning in scandals, six months out from an election in which the government will no doubt trumpet their record of pandemic and economic success, after they have just bought off the mainstream media in their battle against the tech giants, and in which Labor has a lead less than the one that they had last election (which they lost), and is an opposition which is deeply divided on factional lines, with a leader about as popular as a fart in a lift, and with no policies worth mentioning (ok, one policy – IR – which went down like a lead balloon).

    The only possible reason for saying this is good result for Labor is if you were in fact expecting a whole lot worse. In that case, I guess you may have a point.

  37. Socratessays:

    Further on the representativeness of the AO Final crowd, the cheapest seat at the AO Men’s Final was $550 each, ranging up to $990. Not many families will be taking the kids to that.

    By comparison the AFL Final ticket price was frozen at $185, despite the Covid numbers restriction, and a preliminary final ticket was $65. AFL final tickets get rationed to clubs because they are affordable and so lots of people want them.

    Tennis final tickets are purely supply and demand i.e. whatever the market will bear. So a completely different class of people turn up to each. Watching high level tennis at the stadium has become an elitist passtime, with apologies to fans who just like tennis.

    In the early rounds it’s the suits down the front and the sports fans up the back.
    You always hope that the mens match is on first and the womens on 2nd if you get a first week ticket for the night session.

    The suits never watch womens tennis – and security let you down close to the action after the first set of the womens match if that is the playing order.

    What’s more galling is that most of the suits never pay for entry or the copious amounts of beverages that they consume…

  38. Two possible ways to interpret the big gap between Morrison’s approval rating and the 2PP:

    1. Morrison’s approval rating is boosting the LNP 2PP so without him they are certainly in a losing position. So they will do everything to cover for his behaviour.

    2. LNP hardheads see Morrison as a one man band who is boosting himself at the expense of the coalition as a whole. Should his popularity drop, as during the bushfires, he becomes a big liability for the LNP and they would certainly lose an election. They are tired of him blaming everyone but himself and would support a new leader – but who?

  39. Rex at 12.02

    PB’s very own Savoranola projecting his own moral purity and certainty!

    I wonder what a Poll Bludger equivalent of the Bonfire of vanities would be. Do we all just remove our custom avatars?

  40. Andrew Probyn
    @andrewprobyn
    ·
    2m
    Those thinking yesterday’s vaccination of the PM and CMO Kelly had a last-minute feel to it are right: it was meant to be tomorrow (Tuesday) at 8.30am at the pop-up COVID clinic opposite Canberra Hospital, alongside Anthony Albanese, Mark Butler and Peta Murphy … Curious, huh?

  43. Amounts raised so far for Texas storm relief efforts:

    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) — over $4.7 million

    Beto O’Rourke — over $1 million

    Julian Castro — over $400,000

    Sen. Ted Cruz (Q-Cancun) — ZERO Pouting face

    AOC raises nearly $5 million in Texas relief efforts

    Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had amassed $4.7 million in her fundraising efforts to help Texans hard hit by last week’s winter storm as of Sunday evening, her press secretary Ivet Contreras confirmed to CNN.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/21/politics/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-texas-relief/index.html

  45. That’s great work by AOC (as well as the others)

    Also, the contrast between the actions of Ted Cruz vs. those of Beto O’Rourke in the last few days is one of the most starkest examples of “The wrong guy won” in recent history.

  46. Curious that Labor have not mentioned Scrott turning a bi-partisan vaccination event into a non bipartisan ‘brand Scomo’ promotion.

  47. On balance, I tend to think that Labor is in a better position federally than are the WA state Liberals as they approach their next election.

  48. Alpha
    “In the early rounds it’s the suits down the front and the sports fans up the back.
    You always hope that the mens match is on first and the womens on 2nd if you get a first week ticket for the night session.”

    I note that the earlier round tickets start for $49 so obviously normal people and their kids do go to those rounds, which is fine. I wasn’t suggesting they were elitist.

    Your comments on the “suits” attending the Mens final but not the Womens is interesting. The Womens’ final tickets started at $148, 1/3 the price of the mens… Elitism is no barrier to sexism.

  49. Citizen,

    Another consideration is that ‘herding’ is going on with the Newspoll numbers.

    The results seem consistently consistent without outliers.

    You’ll remember that Polls before the last Election had Labor in front for years.

  50. Interesting on the pyscho-physiology of conservatism.

    People with extremist views less able to do complex mental tasks, research suggests.

    Researchers from the University of Cambridge sought to evaluate whether cognitive disposition – differences in how information is perceived and processed – sculpt ideological world-views such as political, nationalistic and dogmatic beliefs, beyond the impact of traditional demographic factors like age, race and gender.

    A key finding was that people with extremist attitudes tended to think about the world in black and white terms, and struggled with complex tasks that required intricate mental steps.

    “Individuals or brains that struggle to process and plan complex action sequences may be more drawn to extreme ideologies, or authoritarian ideologies that simplify the world,…”

    “It’s fascinating, because conservatism is almost a synonym for caution,” she said. “We’re seeing that – at the very basic neuropsychological level – individuals who are politically conservative … simply treat every stimuli that they encounter with caution.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/feb/22/people-with-extremist-views-less-able-to-do-complex-mental-tasks-research-suggests

    This doves tails nicely with the more glaringly obvious luddites and regressives we have been saddled with: Howard, yesterday’s man, pining for the (faux) warm picket fence suburban life of the 50s, Abbott, a man spooked by the rise of feminism and the need to confront his nasty castration complex, and today’s Morrison, no elucidation necessary. Rattle of the names of any number of conservative politicians, and if the cap fits..

    I’ve often used ‘fear’ as their modus operandi. ‘Caution’ is more generous.

    I would add that fundamentalism in religion helps these inadequates deal with who and what they are. There is the certainty of belief, for starters. At its most extreme, this fundamentalism extends to annihilating that which threatens.

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