Western Australian election minus two weeks

As pre-poll voting centres open to brisk business, Zak Kirkup waves the white flag.

Notable developments of the past week:

• Zak Kirkup conceded on Thursday that the Liberals would not win the election, and indeed that he held a “fear that we could be decimated”. Liberal campaign material implicitly acknowledges the certainty of the defeat by promising to “hold Labor to account by keeping the important checks and balances”. State political observers with long memories may recall Geoff Gallop doing much the same on the eve of the 1996 election, which was not reckoned at the time to have done Labor any favours.

• With the opening of pre-poll voting on Wednesday, The West Australian conducted a straw poll of 335 voters at centres in Scarborough, Mandurah, Hillarys and Riverton. While this exercise is obviously highly unscientific, it’s surely worth noting that 70% said they were voting Labor. There were 94,379 pre-poll votes cast between Wednesday and Friday, with The West Australian reporting an expectation (it does not say whose) that 60 to 70 per cent of all votes will be postals or pre-polls.

• Antony Green’s Legislative Council election calculators are now in business. Kevin Bonham observes that they show a particularly strong potential for a preference snowball to deliver a seat to Bass Tadros of the flaky Health Australia Party in Agricultural region.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

28 comments on “Western Australian election minus two weeks”

  1. I’d actually like to see the ALP at least make voting for the LC the same as how it works for the Federal Senate. I’m not averse to them reducing the current gerrymander that exists. Best case would be to completely scrap the body.

  2. Bucephalus says:
    Sunday, February 28, 2021 at 9:33 am

    I’d actually like to see the ALP at least make voting for the LC the same as how it works for the Federal Senate. I’m not averse to them reducing the current gerrymander that exists. Best case would be to completely scrap the body.

    Unless the regions also vote strongly for Labor, they will not have the numbers to reform the LC by themselves. They will need support from the Right and that will surely not be forthcoming.

    The really encouraging thing about this election is the Greens will lose seats. They may lose them all. What a wondrous development that would be.

    The Right appear set to lose nearly all their seats in the Assembly in an epic wipe-out, and the Greens may lose most of their seats in the Council too. That would be a most memorable result.

  3. N @ #3 Sunday, February 28th, 2021 – 8:19 am

    Unless the regions also vote strongly for Labor, they will not have the numbers to reform the LC by themselves. They will need support from the Right and that will surely not be forthcoming.

    The really encouraging thing about this election is the Greens will lose seats. They may lose them all. What a wondrous development that would be.

    The Right appear set to lose nearly all their seats in the Assembly in an epic wipe-out, and the Greens may lose most of their seats in the Council too. That would be a most memorable result.

    I fear that we will have control of the LC in conjunction with the Greens, and we’ll have to work hard to ensure that is not a disaster.

    On the booths, have run into a few aggro voters. Not what I expected, though it’s the first time I’ve handed out HTV’s on prepoll.

  4. The Legislative Council should not be scrapped. And it won’t anyway. Fitzgerald in Qld found that the lack of a house of review enabled much of the government excess.

    Parliaments made up of single member constituencies prevent minor parties from getting the representation their vote merits, but they do allow for stable governments to be formed. So one form of democratic representation is overlooked for the purpose of stability. Upper Houses formed on the basis of proportional representation allow for all views to be represented AND they allow for a proper check on governments who control the Lower House.

    Upper Houses where people vote for the whole state at a time tend to favour parties with state wide support, whereas those with regions allow for different voting patterns.

    My preference, if reform is on the agenda, is for the LC to be made up of 3 regions of 12 members each. Two regions cover 20 mainly metropolitan electorates and the other covers 19 mainly rural electorates. But if the LA were to be reduced by 2 at the same time, then 19 each.

    Voting for the LC should then be either above the line chosen by voters or below the line chosen by voters. No party ticket choice. Vote at least 1 above and as many others as you like.

  5. Although Mark McGowan’s popularity is a significant factor in the possible wipe out of the Liberals, we should nor overlook the infiltration of of right wing religious loons into that party. It is not hard to find out these people’s real agenda, they want to outlaw things like abortion, euthanasia, and gay rights.

    Most voters don’t care much about these issues, until their rights in these areas are threatened. The Liberals won’t be a force again until they ditch these people.

  6. N @ #7 Sunday, February 28th, 2021 – 10:32 am

    Grimace….the aggro voters….what/who are they aggro about?

    For everyone but N, I was handing out HTV’s at the Ellenbrook early voting centre, which is on the border of Swan Hills (Labor – Jess Shaw) and West Swan (Labor – Rita Saffioti)

    The most aggro of them was very wound up about the level of “serious crime” in the area, which later in his rant appeared to be a reference to some recent incidents in the area of anti-social behaviour involving high school students. He was particularly angry that in his opinion Rita Saffioti had done nothing, and said that Jess Shaw was better. He was right up in my face demanding to know what I (a nobody) was going to do about it. He ranted probably for five minutes.

    Another told me that he had brains and wouldn’t be voting Labor.

    One couple was just angrily anti-Labor.

    The presence and behaviour of Rod Henderson (Liberal candidate for Swan Hills) seemed to add considerable and unnecessary heat to the situation.

  7. They are probably the dyed in the wool lib/nats who realize they have no one in their own parties who stand a chance of being elected, and instead of tearing strips off their own inept and incompetent candidates and parties, get abusive towards those they would never vote for anyway.

    Stuff ’em.

  8. Fulvio Sammut @ #9 Sunday, February 28th, 2021 – 10:59 am

    They are probably the dyed in the wool lib/nats who realize they have no one in their own parties who stand a chance of being elected, and instead of tearing strips off their own inept and incompetent candidates and parties, get abusive towards those they would never vote for anyway.

    Stuff ’em.

    I wasn’t too worried about the guy getting in my face. As he was about half my size, it’s more accurate to say he was getting in my sternum, but that doesn’t have the same ring about it. A very angry little man.

  9. WA State Election 2021: Kirkup alone at election launch as Prime Minister Scott Morrison stays away
    Image of the article in my tweet

    https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/1365855471962267649

    Another article on the same topic here
    Liberals dealt a blow with Scott Morrison to skip WA election appearance

    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/liberals-dealt-a-blow-with-scott-morrison-to-skip-wa-election-appearance-20210226-p5767b.html

  10. Just been polled (again).
    Asked voting intention in Riverton (my seat) and was I certain.
    Then some odd questions about the Liberals including who I thought would be best leader. Choice was Nalder, Kirkup, Bishop, Barnett and Harvey. None was not an option so I went Harvey for a laugh.
    Could the Libs be about to recycle Bishop or Barnett? That would be a giggle.
    Also question about Kirkup’s admission of defeat and and whether that would affect my voting intention (no) and what did I think if his energy policy (not much).
    Poll run by mob called Community Engagement Limited.

  11. FWIW,

    I was at the prepoll at Dawsville on Thursday. In the past I’ve been on booths in the western suburbs (Curtin) in both fed & state elections since 2007 so I’m used to an unkind reception you might say.
    The feeling this time was completely different. The classic “I’ve voted Liberal all my life but this time I’m voting for Mark” was everywhere. It was so obvious that when I got home I put a shekel on Lisa Munday(Labor Dawesville) to beat the sitting opposition leader Zack Kirkup who holds the seat by 353 votes 0.8%. I think he’s going to lose by more than that.
    Time will tell.

  12. A friend has a friend on the election staff at the riverton pre poll.
    Apparently it was willing there the other day.
    Local business owners not happy with car park clogged up with campaign cars etc. confrontations with voters and such.
    I drove past and thought it was a bit silly by both sides.
    Hopefully they settle down.

  13. The percentage of people taking Labor (and only Labor) HTVs on a busy Friday in the northern suburbs was extremely high. Many of these were 60+. On that (very scant) evidence The West’s claims of 70% for Labor are easy to believe.

    Postal vote applications to Labor have more than doubled in one seat.

    Plenty of Liberal representation (the church element always offer a solid source of volunteers). However there were tales that one Lib candidate, recently highlighted in the media, was accusing another from the same party of recording a sermon given by her husband.

    Bemusement was the predominant reaction to the Kirkup surrender declaration from the Libs, but some anger too, which seemed to be directed externally. One Liberal suggested to me it was a ploy from the upper house powerbrokers to immunise themselves from the looming rout.

    Anti-vax party was harassing people continually with no understanding of, or care for, exclusion zones around the booth doors.

  14. grimace says:
    Sunday, February 28, 2021 at 1:57 pm
    N @ #7 Sunday, February 28th, 2021 – 10:32 am

    Grimace….the aggro voters….what/who are they aggro about?

    For everyone…

    Thanks grim. This sounds like diehard Libs in a huff because they’re facing the greatest rout of all time.

    Of course, when something goes wrong, someone must be blamed….and the local Labor MP is as good a target as any other…

    Keep up the good work!!

  15. Grimace says:
    Sunday, February 28, 2021 at 10:24 pm

    Rod Henderson (Liberal candidate for Swan Hills) has been behaving very aggressively at the Ellenbrook prepolling centre.

    …conduct that will almost certainly cost him votes. My experience is the Liberals and ON lack discipline and respect for others, including the voters…

  16. Grimace, let’s hope Henderson doesn’t ever get anywhere near state parliament! Even local council was bad enough!

  17. Well there seems to be a little bit of anti-Greens sentiment here, but I was handing out HTVs for them down at the Forrestdale EVC, which was almost completely empty. All the volunteers and candidates who turned up were very nice. Would like to wish there was way less corflutes and banners though, there were about 40 corflutes and about 70 voters across the whole day…

  18. @N

    I’ve handed out for the Liberals at the last federal election, and there was plenty of respect from us. When the Palmer party guy abandoned ship and left his how to vote cards all scattered on the table, we cleaned them off – his mess was NOT fair to the Labor and Green volunteers.

    You must have just come across some bad eggs. I’ve never had bad experiences from volunteers of any party, although I know NOT to wear my volunteer work’s shirt when arriving at a booth – it’s the same colour as One Nation!

  19. grimacesays:
    Sunday, February 28, 2021 at 11:48 am
    N @ #3 Sunday, February 28th, 2021 – 8:19 am

    On the booths, have run into a few aggro voters. Not what I expected, though it’s the first time I’ve handed out HTV’s on prepoll.
    ————————————-
    My experience over the last 50 or so years is that the tories get very agro when their birthright is being taken from them.

  20. Anton Kreitzer @ #21 Sunday, February 28th, 2021 – 10:59 pm

    @N

    I’ve handed out for the Liberals at the last federal election, and there was plenty of respect from us. When the Palmer party guy abandoned ship and left his how to vote cards all scattered on the table, we cleaned them off – his mess was NOT fair to the Labor and Green volunteers.

    You must have just come across some bad eggs. I’ve never had bad experiences from volunteers of any party, although I know NOT to wear my volunteer work’s shirt when arriving at a booth – it’s the same colour as One Nation!

    I agree that the major parties and the Greens representatives generally behave with respect towards one another and the election commission staff, and observe the appropriate decorum for election booths.

    Rod Henderson is a well known local, and serial failed candidate (previously for West Swan) and it would be a surprise to nobody that he has been disrespectful towards the other tenant in the EVC, neighbouring tenants, voters and other party volunteers.

  21. I am distinctly puzzled by the anti-Greens comments on this site. I often wonder why there is such visceral emotional criticism of a political party which majors on creating a fairer, kinder and peaceful world. For those WA voters who are opposed or nervous about voting for the Greens, take a deep breath and examine the evidence that the Greens have a good track record at local, state and national levels for supporting and in cooperation with other political parties (eg the ALP in the ACT Assembly) making positive changes for the well being of the community – and not pandering to minority privileged segments of the population as so often is the case in Australian political life. Witness the shameful behavior of the Nationals in bed with the big mining and agricultural companies, all the while falsely claiming to be representing regional Australians…..and turning a blind eye to the environmental destruction of the Murray-Darling river systems.

  22. I was handing out HTV’s yesterday when two people from the Health Australia Party (anti vaccers, promote quackery) stormed into the polling place wearing their campaign shirts before being promptly sent on their way by the WAEC official.

    Not sure what happened, but they were down the street and visibly agitated for quite a while.

  23. My postal vote package has arrived, can I ask you guys what’s this about needing someone to sign a witness declaration on the envelope? Or am I reading that wrong? I was looking forward to sitting down and doing my vote in the privacy of my own home, with no one around and posting it off. If I’m reading right, then I have to bring someone else into the equation and put my vote in the envelope in front of them? o_O

  24. @ N, on the main thread you’ve enquired about whether there had been any mention of Porter with voters. In Friday, four voters enquired about whether Mr Porter was in his office that day.

    Their tone and demeanor suggested they did not wish him well. I have no wish to incur Mr Bowen’s wrath so won’t elaborate further on the nature of the enquiries about Mr Porter’s presence.

    Ellenbrook EVC, covering Swan Hills and West Swan has been reasonably quiet.

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