Kelly’s zeroes

Mutterings about the security of Craig Kelly’s tenure, a federal LNP vacancy in regional Queensland, and some minor state poll findings from Western Australia.

News remains thin on the ground over the summer holiday period, although we may possibly hopefully see the polling cycle crank up again as of next week. Two pieces of federal preselection news to relate:

• A report in The Australian today raises further doubts about the security of Craig Kelly’s preselection in Hughes – not for the reasons you would hope, but because he has failed to raise any campaign funding for head office since July 2019, according to leaked party documents. He is not alone in this distinction, however, with Farrer MP Sussan Ley, Robertson MP Lucy Wicks and Lindsay MP Melissa McIntosh likewise having come up empty. Kelly was saved from preselection challenges by prime ministerial intervention before both the 2016 and 2019 elections, and a Liberal source cited in The Australian says “there’s no appetite in the party to save him a third time”.

• Ken O’Dowd, who has held the central Queensland seat of Flynn for the Nationals since 2010, announced on January 5 that he will retire at the next election. Queensland Country Life reports that Colin Boyce, who holds the partly corresponding seat of Callide in the state parliament, will contest the preselection. The report quotes Boyce complaining about the failure of David Crisafulli, who replaced Deb Frecklington as Liberal National Party leader after the October state election, to have promoted him to the front bench. It also suggests he may face competition in Flynn from Gladstone councillor Glenn Churchill, who was the party’s unsuccessful candidate for the seat in 2007 and challenged O’Dowd for preselection ahead of the 2019 election.

With the Western Australian election now two months away, two bits of data have emerged from a Painted Dog Research poll conducted for The West Australian in mid-December, which as always do not encompass voting intention:

• Three weeks after Zak Kirkup replaced Liza Harvey as Liberal leader in late November, the poll found him with a 19% approval and 14% disapproval rating. While this compares favourably with Harvey’s 10% and 37% from September, but is obviously remarkably mostly for the 67% uncommitted rating. The poll also found 36% saying Kirkup would be a better leader than Harvey and 11% saying otherwise, with 53% uncommitted.

• With Ben Wyatt to bow out at the election, the poll found 21% favouring Health Minister Roger Cook to succeed him as Treasurer, with Rita Saffioti on 9%, Bill Johnston on 8%, “someone else” on 13% and 49% uncommitted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,340 comments on “Kelly’s zeroes”

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  1. Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    · 28m
    On the way back from Bunginderry Station to Quilpie, I caught up with NZ PM Jacinda Ardern – swapping notes on #COVID19 management and vaccines.

    Name dropping, with his photographer to catch the handsome profile.

  5. phoenixRED @ #339 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 2:07 pm

    Kaitlan Collins@kaitlancollins

    Anthony Scaramucci says he was invited to President Trump’s farewell ceremony Wednesday, which he takes as a sign the White House is desperate to bulk up the guest list. “Trust me, that had to be a mass email if one of them got sent to me,” he tells @InsideEdition
    .
    Anthony Scaramucci@Scaramucci

    I am having my fingernails pulled out at that time, sorry I can’t make it. . .

    Honestly, the narcissistic Trump’s ego is such that he probably believes that The Mooch would forgive him his humiliation to be able to go to the Trump Farewell.

  8. I just went with my son while he had a Covid test before he starts a new job and the Gosford Clinic was as slow as a wet week.

  9. GoldenSmaug @ #337 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 1:54 pm

    We almost exclusively watch Streaming these days with little no commercial TV apart from BH&G which the boss likes to watch on Friday nights (and we stream that).
    I’ve been watching the US election events unfold over the last few months and occasionally would click on an interesting looking link in YouTube just to quickly realise it was Australian Fox News channel.
    I’ve just flagged YouTube to “Not Recommend Channel” for Fox News. I didn’t know I could do that and it’s actually not something I’d do lightly but now that I know it’s possible I will do the same for any Newsmax or OAM which have popped up once or twice.
    Commercial Australian TV new, which I generally loath as it’s NOT generally news, I’ll leave alone for the moment.

    How do you do it, GS?

  10. If Morrison is out in the regions how come he’s got mobile signal. I live 35 k’s from Perth and can’t use my phone at home.

  13. The Sandgroper Premier with a message for Gladdy.
    .
    .
    ‘Stop carping’: WA Premier takes aim at NSW government’s criticism of border closures

    They need to leave it alone [and] let us act on the best interests of the health of West Australians. A few months ago, maybe six weeks’ ago, the Melbourne outbreak came about because a Covid-positive person travelled from Sydney to Melbourne. That’s why it happened. So, borders are important.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/jan/19/coronavirus-australia-live-victoria-nsw-border-sydney-hotspots-tennis-quarantine-tourism-international-travel

  15. “On the way back from Bunginderry Station to Quilpie, I caught up with NZ PM Jacinda Ardern – swapping notes on #COVID19 management and vaccines.”

    DILLIGAF

  16. ‘Melania Trump thanks Americans for the greatest honour of her life.’

    Well, to be honest, there wasn’t much before that. 😐

  19. So, Ed Husic was out celebrating thermal coal at Maitland last week …?

    The NSW Labor right is determined to be the death of the party.

  20. Do you think if I had a little phone call about how the virus is spreading with, say, Premier Annastacia, who I’m sure is a very friendly person, I could then claim to be part of the management of Covid in Qld?

    That’s about the level of Scomo’s management.

  21. More tennis nonsense. I’d put this in “these statements are so absurd they must be fabricated” pile, but there are credible non-Murdoch sources reporting them (and a video, even):

    Later on Monday, Tomic’s girlfriend Vanessa Sierra took to social media with a video from inside the room she and the Australian tennis player are sharing.

    “This is the worst part of quarantine,” Sierra said on her YouTube channel.

    “I don’t wash my own hair. I’ve never washed my own hair. It’s just not something that I do. I normally have hairdressers that do it twice a week for me.”

    https://au.sports.yahoo.com/australian-open-2021-nick-kyrgios-swipe-bernard-tomic-girlfriend-203852700.html

    Guess Tomic’s got a real keeper there. 😆

  22. Apparently Trump didn’t have time to talk to one of his biggest fans earlier today. Morrison was forced to talk to No. 2 and all they apparently discussed was the great US-Oz relationship.

    On another thing, my wife’s relation told her that a “prophet” has assured their flock that Trump will certainly be sworn in as president again on Wednesday. No mention of what explanation the prophet might offer should Biden get the gig!

  23. citizen

    They’re expecting a miracle, like a hand reaching down from the sky and smiting Biden?

    We don’t have the same standards of prophecy now as in the old days. 😆

  25. Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    18m
    Tanya Plibersek had told @2GB873 that it’s very clear @DanielAndrewsMP has been supporting the tennis and they are going to need to take responsibility for the outcomes

  26. citizen @ #1223 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 4:54 pm

    Apparently Trump didn’t have time to talk to one of his biggest fans earlier today. Morrison was forced to talk to No. 2 and all they apparently discussed was the great US-Oz relationship.

    On another thing, my wife’s relation told her that a “prophet” has assured their flock that Trump will certainly be sworn in as president again on Wednesday. No mention of what explanation the prophet might offer should Biden get the gig!

    His eminence the cardinal did assure us that “on the whole I think Trump has made a positive contribution to the Christian cause”.

    Stand by for divine intervention…

  29. Gladys is avin a laff, isn’t she?

    Leslie McGill
    @leselec27
    ·
    1h
    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has taken a swipe at Victoria’s border restrictions.
    “First of all, I don’t really understand the traffic-light system, I just want to make that clear,” she said.

    Simple Signals
    Red=Stop
    Orange=Caution
    Green=Go

    Maybe Gladys cant drive

  31. Parler partially reappears with support from Russian technology firm

    (Reuters) – Parler, a social media website and app popular with the American far right, has partially returned online with the help of a Russian-owned technology company.

    Parler vanished from the internet when dropped by Amazon Inc’s hosting arm and other partners for poor moderation after its users called for violence and posted videos glorifying the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

    On Monday, Parler’s website was reachable again, though only with a message from its chief executive saying he was working to restore functionality.

    The internet protocol address it used is owned by DDos-Guard, which is controlled by two Russian men and provides services including protection from distributed denial of service attacks, infrastructure expert Ronald Guilmette told Reuters.

    If the website is fully restored, Parler users would be able to see and post comments. Most users prefer the app, however, which remains banned from the official Apple Inc and Google stores.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-parler-russia/parler-partially-reappears-with-support-from-russian-technology-firm-idUSKBN29N23N

  32. Scott Morrison saying now that farmworkers (aka very cheap labour), should be allowed into the country if tennis players are being allowed in before Aussie citizen returnees.

    Nice try, Scotty from Marketing slave labour. But no dice. Not the same same.

  33. Down here in Tassie we’re always left off the map. With all the shit flying backwards and forwards between various states, for once this is a bloody good thing. You poxed big islanders do us Taswegieans a favour and argue your little hearts out and stay away.

  35. Bert @ #1234 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 5:47 pm

    Down here in Tassie we’re always left off the map. With all the shit flying backwards and forwards between various states, for once this is a bloody good thing. You poxed big islanders do us Taswegieans a favour and argue your little hearts out and stay away.

    The only one carrying on is Gladys. Everyone else is happy.

  36. Bert @ #405 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 5:47 pm

    Down here in Tassie we’re always left off the map. With all the shit flying backwards and forwards between various states, for once this is a bloody good thing. You poxed big islanders do us Taswegieans a favour and argue your little hearts out and stay away.

    Well, I’m getting sick of hearing about MONA and its latest exhibition. So there! 😀

  37. Good for Wade and Paine to enjoy catches on their last day of test cricket. Maybe Harris will get one too.

    Maybe Pant can hit one to Langer too.

  39. The Silver Bodgie @ #1126 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 12:38 pm

    Latest Essential poll

    https://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Essential%20Report%20-%2019%20January&utm_content=Essential%20Report%20-%2019%20January+CID_13491410adaf88c506d09f423f53a80c&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=View%20the%20Essential%20Report

    This is disturbing. Although more people than ever believe the bushfires were caused by global warming, and the number of people who think global warming is caused by human activity is still around 60% (although off its high), and global warming is still in the top 5 in the list of highest priority issues, the disturbing bit is that 35% of Australians think we are “doing enough” – a record high.

    We aren’t “doing enough” of course. And this issue will come back and bite us – with a vengeance.

    I guess it is possible that concern for Covid is simply overwhelming concern for anything else at present. But we have an election coming soon, and Labor is apparently”running dead” on this issue – which can only advantage the COALition.

    It makes you wonder, doesn’t it?

  43. According to Laura Tingle in an article that’s just popped up on ABC, one of the reasons the states took on the federal governments responsibility for quarantine was because they need the federal government to use Centrelink to pay casuals holding down multiple casual jobs.
    Is my memory faulty, I thought that quarantine was instigated prior to the Centrelink rollout. Also the Jobseeker/ Jobkeeper actually precluded casuals.
    The other reasons were the commonwealth did not have the capacity, this is true but why should the states not only do the job but pay for it.
    I still believe that Morrison had no intention to introduce anything other than home detention and the states had no choice.

  44. C@tmomma @ #1236 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 5:50 pm

    Bert @ #405 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 5:47 pm

    Down here in Tassie we’re always left off the map. With all the shit flying backwards and forwards between various states, for once this is a bloody good thing. You poxed big islanders do us Taswegieans a favour and argue your little hearts out and stay away.

    Well, I’m getting sick of hearing about MONA and its latest exhibition. So there! 😀

    MONA’s a good name for the Taswegians on PB.

  48. C@tmomma @ #1236 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 5:50 pm

    Bert @ #405 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 5:47 pm

    Down here in Tassie we’re always left off the map. With all the shit flying backwards and forwards between various states, for once this is a bloody good thing. You poxed big islanders do us Taswegieans a favour and argue your little hearts out and stay away.

    Well, I’m getting sick of hearing about MONA and its latest exhibition. So there! 😀

    You n me both

  50. Gabrielle Chan
    @gabriellechan
    ·
    1h
    This looks fascinating and unprecedented in terms of independent representation. I can’t think of another national indie convention like it, hosted by a former indie MP ⁦
    @Indigocathy
    ⁩ and campaigners in what could be an election year.

    …
    https://communityindependents.com.au/

    Join us online from Friday evening to Sunday lunch on the last weekend of February 2021. Be inspired by those who’ve run campaigns including independent candidates, campaigners and community voices groups.

    Hosted by Cathy McGowan AO, this is a unique opportunity to network, share your campaigning skills and learn more about how community independents can change Australia for the better.

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