Kelly’s zeroes

Mutterings about the security of Craig Kelly’s tenure, a federal LNP vacancy in regional Queensland, and some minor state poll findings from Western Australia.

News remains thin on the ground over the summer holiday period, although we may possibly hopefully see the polling cycle crank up again as of next week. Two pieces of federal preselection news to relate:

• A report in The Australian today raises further doubts about the security of Craig Kelly’s preselection in Hughes – not for the reasons you would hope, but because he has failed to raise any campaign funding for head office since July 2019, according to leaked party documents. He is not alone in this distinction, however, with Farrer MP Sussan Ley, Robertson MP Lucy Wicks and Lindsay MP Melissa McIntosh likewise having come up empty. Kelly was saved from preselection challenges by prime ministerial intervention before both the 2016 and 2019 elections, and a Liberal source cited in The Australian says “there’s no appetite in the party to save him a third time”.

• Ken O’Dowd, who has held the central Queensland seat of Flynn for the Nationals since 2010, announced on January 5 that he will retire at the next election. Queensland Country Life reports that Colin Boyce, who holds the partly corresponding seat of Callide in the state parliament, will contest the preselection. The report quotes Boyce complaining about the failure of David Crisafulli, who replaced Deb Frecklington as Liberal National Party leader after the October state election, to have promoted him to the front bench. It also suggests he may face competition in Flynn from Gladstone councillor Glenn Churchill, who was the party’s unsuccessful candidate for the seat in 2007 and challenged O’Dowd for preselection ahead of the 2019 election.

With the Western Australian election now two months away, two bits of data have emerged from a Painted Dog Research poll conducted for The West Australian in mid-December, which as always do not encompass voting intention:

• Three weeks after Zak Kirkup replaced Liza Harvey as Liberal leader in late November, the poll found him with a 19% approval and 14% disapproval rating. While this compares favourably with Harvey’s 10% and 37% from September, but is obviously remarkably mostly for the 67% uncommitted rating. The poll also found 36% saying Kirkup would be a better leader than Harvey and 11% saying otherwise, with 53% uncommitted.

• With Ben Wyatt to bow out at the election, the poll found 21% favouring Health Minister Roger Cook to succeed him as Treasurer, with Rita Saffioti on 9%, Bill Johnston on 8%, “someone else” on 13% and 49% uncommitted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,340 comments on “Kelly’s zeroes”

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  4. poroti @ #1289 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 7:24 pm

    Covid may be killing a lot more people than we think.Those who are considered recovered have a high rate of further illness and death.

    Yes. Friend recovered (barely) from covid. Returned to hospital with an abnormal heartbeat. Now taking calcium-channel blockers and being evaluated for ablation surgery. She’s not even 40.

  5. poroti

    The USA has a federation too. One that in many ways priveleges the autonomy of states much more strongly than ours.

    Perhaps the difference is the priveleging of Freedumb.

  8. mundo @ #455 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 8:13 pm

    Player One @ #1276 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 8:04 pm

    mundo @ #1256 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 6:40 pm

    Mundo has adjusted to the new order.

    So has Labor, it seems 🙁

    Sure does.
    Jeez it must be tough staring over the abyss and seeing Scrooter’s crooked grin leering back at you…day after day after month after month after year aft…………….

    I see the Hanrahan twins have cranked up the victrola.

  11. I realise injuries are not an excuse. The Indians have demonstrated that. But imagine Australia with the 2 victorian Ps fit and playing instead of Wade and Stark.

  13. Windhover @ #1311 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 10:03 pm

    I realise injuries are not an excuse. The Indians have demonstrated that. But imagine Australia with the 2 victorian Ps fit and playing instead of Wade and Stark.

    Wade would obviously have played regardless of Pucovski’s fitness. Hopefully never again though.

    And Pattinson? Is he injured? Is he ever not injured? How on earth did he damage his ribs at home over New Year? Not exactly what was required given the extreme workload placed on the three quicks.

  14. Tuesday morning in America. Trump’s last day.

    I notice that Doug Emhoff, husband of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, will become the first Second Gentleman and the first Jewish spouse of a U.S. vice president.

  15. On the cricket, to be fair first, congratulations India. They played great, at a ground they have never won at before. Whatever excuses we had, they had more, with their best bat (Kholi), all rounder (Jadeja) and three bowlers injured. I was suspicious a week ago they were trying to dodge the Gabba test. I withdraw my suspicions, and doff my cap to the Indian team. Well played.

  18. Cat

    I see a few members of Trump’s famous Gravy Seals, Meal Team Six, in that photo. And they are finally masking up. It only took a few hundred arrests.

    I was just wondering if Scomo’s reluctance to criticise Trump for trying to overthrow democracy might be tactical? Perhaps he was hoping to get Presidential pardons for Dutton and Roberts.

  19. Socrates @ #1315 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 10:24 pm

    On the cricket, to be fair first, congratulations India. They played great, at a ground they have never won at before. Whatever excuses we had, they had more, with their best bat (Kholi), all rounder (Jadeja) and three bowlers injured. I was suspicious a week ago they were trying to dodge the Gabba test. I withdraw my suspicions, and doff my cap to the Indian team. Well played.

    Agree. Bumrah, Kohli and Ashwin would make anyone’s World XI at the moment. So would Jadeja if I was picking it, but that might just be me.

    To take those four out, along with a few other decent quicks, should have meant they had no chance.

    Incredible performance really.

  20. C@tmomma @ #1316 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 10:24 pm

    ItzaDream @ #486 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 10:23 pm

    Tuesday morning in America. Trump’s last day.

    I notice that Doug Emhoff, husband of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, will become the first Second Gentleman and the first Jewish spouse of a U.S. vice president.

    I’m getting excited, Itza! 😀

    Pictures of rehearsals looking good.

    For some idea of the programme
    https://bideninaugural.org/schedule/
    (scroll down )

  21. Best o/s performance I can recall given circumstances.

    Qld should arc up re non-selection of Neser, and Swepson If he continues to be denied.

  24. On Trump, I am hopeful that parting him from his social media megaphone is already working. Today was supposed to be his million militia march in Washington with demonstrations in state capitals too. Attendance was zero.

    Second, Daily Kos carried a story that the Confederate flag holder filmed inside the Capitol was arrested after his ankle bracelet from a burglary conviction was recorded in the Capitol. The similarities between Trump’s goon squads and Hitler’s brown shirts get uncomfortable close. Lots of petty criminals and desperate types in both.

  26. C@tmomma @ #1113 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 9:15 am

    Barney in TB,

    Okay, so I apologise for saying ‘White Privilege’. But no, I don’t quite get the ‘First World Privilege’ thing either. India, which I still maintain is not a part of the ‘1st World’ is embarking on a massive program to immunise their country, even producing their own vaccine to do it.

    Which as I said before just demonstrates that India has the means and ability to look after themselves, which places them outside the countries that WHO is talking about. An interesting point regarding India’s vaccination program is that it is heavily reliant on an Indian developed vaccine that is still in trials and its effectiveness is still to be determined.

    As far as the governments of the 1st World seeking to get the vaccine for their own citizens first, well, you can kind of understand that, can’t you? Wouldn’t there be an outcry in all of those countries if their governments didn’t do it? Altruism is great but in the teeth of a global pandemic it kind of goes out the window, understandably.

    Yes, but even in countries like Australia the vaccines won’t be available to everyone in the beginning. It will be rolled out to healthcare workers, essential service workers and high risk groups first and then progressively be made available to other citizens.

    This is along the lines of what WHO is calling for, in the beginning gaining enough vaccine to vaccinate healthcare workers, so these countries are able to maintain what health facilities that they have.

    As I did point out previously, I believe that all the 1st World countries should tithe to the WHO to enable a massive ramp up of vaccine production for the poorest countries in the world then a massive outreach, possibly by Medicins Sans Frontiere, to vaccinate their people, should occur. I believe vaccine production is able to be ramped up. For example, CSL in Australia could be tasked with it. And wouldn’t it be great if our federal government volunteered them for the task? Inoculating our 25 million could be achieved quite quickly and then they could move onto production for the 3rd World. However, sadly, it appears to be beyond the wit and wisdom of this government to do that.

    This will do little as the pharmaceutical companies are already ramping up production to meet existing orders. What would be effective is if these 1st world countries tithed actual vaccines that they receive and allow WHO to distribute them to these countries in question.

  27. Finally the day comes when we hope to see the back of the worst US president in history. Lets hope we never see the likes again of someone like this ever being President. He should be arrested as soon as he leaves the White House for inciting domestic terrorism and treason. An absolutely divisive,waste of oxygen that should never hold public office again.

  28. Biden’s should play “We didn’t start the fire” by Billy Joel on the day and while they go to the White House.

    As a final reminder to Trump and Republican Party.

  29. And the US authorities are getting serious now:

    U.S. authorities have leveled the first conspiracy charge against an apparent leader of an extremist group in the Jan. 6 storming of the U.S. Capitol, arresting an alleged Oath Keeper who is accused of plotting to disrupt the electoral vote confirmation of President-elect Joe Biden’s victory and proposing further assaults on state capitols.

    Thomas Edward Caldwell, 66, of Clarke County, Va., was taken into custody before 7 a.m. on four federal counts, including conspiracy to commit an offense against the United States in the attack on the Capitol. The conspiracy charge is reserved for offenses interfering with or obstructing the lawful operation of government.

    A charging affidavit says he helped organize a group of eight to 10 individuals, including self-styled Ohio militia members apprehended Sunday, who wore helmets and military-style gear and were seen moving purposefully toward the top of the Capitol steps and leading the move against police lines.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/conspiracy-oath-keeper-arrest-capitol-riot/2021/01/19/fb84877a-5a4f-11eb-8bcf-3877871c819d_story.html?%20va._1

  30. Joe Biden is making appointments without fear or favour:

    President-elect Joe Biden announced Tuesday that he will nominate Rachel Levine, Pennsylvania’s top health official, as his assistant secretary of health. Levine, a pediatrician, would become the first openly transgender federal official to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate.

    “Dr. Rachel Levine will bring the steady leadership and essential expertise we need to get people through this pandemic — no matter their zip code, race, religion, sexual orientation, gender identity, or disability — and meet the public health needs of our country in this critical moment and beyond,” Biden said in a statement. “She is a historic and deeply qualified choice to help lead our administration’s health efforts.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/19/rachel-levine-transgender-biden-hhs-pick/

  31. The most senior Republican in Congress has blamed Mr Trump for the violence on January 6, saying he “fed lies” to his supporters.

    “The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the President and other powerful people. And they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific proceeding of the first branch of the federal government, which they did not like,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on the floor of the chamber.

    “But we pressed on, we stood together, and said an angry mob would not get veto power over the rule of law in our nation.”

    That remark directly blaming the President is significant. Mr McConnell is reportedly open to convicting the President in the upcoming impeachment trial, and as the most senior Republican in Congress, his opinion carries weight.

  33. Predict it has mconnell,voting to convict at 46% and the chance of a senate conviction went up from 19 to 29% following McConnell’s comments .

    However the legality of impeachment is likely to go to the Supreme Court. It may just be McConnell foxing. He’s just so much smarter on the politics than anyone else in the congress.

  34. Jaeger says:
    Wednesday, January 20, 2021 at 6:43 am

    “By contrast, those who had received their second dose of the Pfizer vaccine had a six- to 12-fold increase in antibodies, according to data released by Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer on Monday.”

    This is why they do two shots and not one.

  35. Barney is right, IMO.

    Morrison, McCormack, Payne and Hunt should insist that a proportion of the doses Australia manages to access will be made available to Pacific nations even if this means that some millions of Australians get their doses a year later than they might otherwise do.

    There are two reasons for this. The first is ethical: equity.

    The second is our existential struggle with Xi. If we want friends we have to show friendly behaviour. Xi understands this which is why millions of doses of Sinovac are going into the arms of people in other countries before they go into the arms of chinese citizens.

  39. C@tmomma @ #1308 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 9:54 pm

    mundo @ #455 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 8:13 pm

    Player One @ #1276 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 8:04 pm

    mundo @ #1256 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 6:40 pm

    Mundo has adjusted to the new order.

    So has Labor, it seems 🙁

    Sure does.
    Jeez it must be tough staring over the abyss and seeing Scrooter’s crooked grin leering back at you…day after day after month after month after year aft…………….

    I see the Hanrahan twins have cranked up the victrola.

    I think it’s amusing that such a comment comes from someone who has said she expects Labor to lose the next election , but who doesn’t actually want Labor to do anything about it.

    As I said, it makes you wonder, doesn’t it? 🙁

  40. Player One @ #1339 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 8:55 am

    C@tmomma @ #1308 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 9:54 pm

    mundo @ #455 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 8:13 pm

    Player One @ #1276 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 8:04 pm

    mundo @ #1256 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 6:40 pm

    Mundo has adjusted to the new order.

    So has Labor, it seems 🙁

    Sure does.
    Jeez it must be tough staring over the abyss and seeing Scrooter’s crooked grin leering back at you…day after day after month after month after year aft…………….

    I see the Hanrahan twins have cranked up the victrola.

    I think it’s amusing that such a comment comes from someone who has said she expects Labor to lose the next election , but who doesn’t actually want Labor to do anything about it.

    As I said, it makes you wonder, doesn’t it? 🙁

    ‘who doesn’t actually want Labor to do anything about it.’
    Really?
    All she does is suggest things Labor could be doing.
    You need to pay attention.

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