Kelly’s zeroes

Mutterings about the security of Craig Kelly’s tenure, a federal LNP vacancy in regional Queensland, and some minor state poll findings from Western Australia.

News remains thin on the ground over the summer holiday period, although we may possibly hopefully see the polling cycle crank up again as of next week. Two pieces of federal preselection news to relate:

• A report in The Australian today raises further doubts about the security of Craig Kelly’s preselection in Hughes – not for the reasons you would hope, but because he has failed to raise any campaign funding for head office since July 2019, according to leaked party documents. He is not alone in this distinction, however, with Farrer MP Sussan Ley, Robertson MP Lucy Wicks and Lindsay MP Melissa McIntosh likewise having come up empty. Kelly was saved from preselection challenges by prime ministerial intervention before both the 2016 and 2019 elections, and a Liberal source cited in The Australian says “there’s no appetite in the party to save him a third time”.

• Ken O’Dowd, who has held the central Queensland seat of Flynn for the Nationals since 2010, announced on January 5 that he will retire at the next election. Queensland Country Life reports that Colin Boyce, who holds the partly corresponding seat of Callide in the state parliament, will contest the preselection. The report quotes Boyce complaining about the failure of David Crisafulli, who replaced Deb Frecklington as Liberal National Party leader after the October state election, to have promoted him to the front bench. It also suggests he may face competition in Flynn from Gladstone councillor Glenn Churchill, who was the party’s unsuccessful candidate for the seat in 2007 and challenged O’Dowd for preselection ahead of the 2019 election.

With the Western Australian election now two months away, two bits of data have emerged from a Painted Dog Research poll conducted for The West Australian in mid-December, which as always do not encompass voting intention:

• Three weeks after Zak Kirkup replaced Liza Harvey as Liberal leader in late November, the poll found him with a 19% approval and 14% disapproval rating. While this compares favourably with Harvey’s 10% and 37% from September, but is obviously remarkably mostly for the 67% uncommitted rating. The poll also found 36% saying Kirkup would be a better leader than Harvey and 11% saying otherwise, with 53% uncommitted.

• With Ben Wyatt to bow out at the election, the poll found 21% favouring Health Minister Roger Cook to succeed him as Treasurer, with Rita Saffioti on 9%, Bill Johnston on 8%, “someone else” on 13% and 49% uncommitted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,340 comments on “Kelly’s zeroes”

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  1. Just a random observation, but for all the effort mainstream media outlets put into bemoaning Trump’s dishonesty, lies, and outright electoral fraud, they do their cause no favors by prefacing their articles with autoplaying videos like the one found here:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/17/tech/what-is-gab-explainer/index.html

    …which open, without warning, context, or contradiction, to Donald Trump flatly proclaiming that “We had an election that was stolen from us”. Don’t give free bandwidth towards spreading Trump’s lies and fraudulent claims, and they won’t propagate as far!

  2. zoom

    That and Biden certainly didn’t tear the whole US government down like Trump managed in 4 years, him having spent the last 40 years being a con, sexual predator, bankrupt etc. Tough act to follow but I feel sure the Republicans can find another contender.

  3. zoomster
    Re Biden’s acievements. They were waaay to perfunctory with his crime bill. It was a toxic shocker. All part of his long running efforts to out flank the Repugs on the right on a number of issues . All good for getting votes……apparently but ot so good for the peasants.

  4. poroti

    I haven’t quite caught up with the news today. Was there another case announced today, or were the new locations the result of someone previously known?

  5. poroti

    I haven’t quite caught up with the news today. Was there another case announced today, or were the new locations the result of someone previously known?

  6. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #946 Monday, January 18th, 2021 – 7:03 pm

    Player One @ #943 Monday, January 18th, 2021 – 3:55 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #939 Monday, January 18th, 2021 – 6:44 pm

    And in case anyone was wondering if the CFMEU might want Albanese gone, this would seem to remove any doubt: https://t.co/wUfHiLGogX— Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) January 18, 2021

    So the CFMEU wants Plibersek as Labor leader.

    Has she done a deal them ?

    Albo is hopeless, so almost anyone is going to be an improvement. However, Plibersek is from NSW, and NSW Labor is toxic.

    The next leader should probably come from either Queensland or Victoria if Labor is going to have any hope at all.

    How superficial.

    Why not go on ability?

    Because that would mean Bill!

  7. Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert, is/was a rabid Trump supporter. The only good thing is that he doesn’t bring his repugnant political views into his strips.

  8. Maybe this could be applied in Australia?

    ‘Israel’s top rival to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is getting some American help ahead of the March 23 elections.

    Gideon Sa’ar, a onetime Netanyahu protege, has hired four of the founders of the Lincoln Project, which ran a relentless campaign to help defeat U.S. President Donald Trump. The hiring was first reported by Israel’s Channel 12 TV and confirmed by a member of Sa’ar’s campaign. The campaign official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was discussing internal strategy.

    Lincoln Project founders Steve Schmidt, Rick Wilson, Stuart Stevens and Reed Galen were among the leaders of the effort to draw Republicans from Trump’s reelection effort centered on the president’s ethics and moral leadership. The Lincoln Project’s stated mission is to hold public leaders “accountable.”

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/netanyahu-rival-hires-anti-trump-lincoln-project-campaign-founders-1.9459791

  9. procket_ says:
    Monday, January 18, 2021 at 8:03 pm
    Maybe this could be applied in Australia?

    ‘Israel’s top rival to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is getting some American help ahead of the March 23 elections.

    Gideon Sa’ar, a onetime Netanyahu protege, has hired four of the founders of the Lincoln Project, which ran a relentless campaign to help defeat U.S. President Donald Trump. The hiring was first reported by Israel’s Channel 12 TV and confirmed by a member of Sa’ar’s campaign. The campaign official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was discussing internal strategy.

    Lincoln Project founders Steve Schmidt, Rick Wilson, Stuart Stevens and Reed Galen were among the leaders of the effort to draw Republicans from Trump’s reelection effort centered on the president’s ethics and moral leadership. The Lincoln Project’s stated mission is to hold public leaders “accountable.”

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/netanyahu-rival-hires-anti-trump-lincoln-project-campaign-founders-1.9459791
    _______________________-
    Surely he would have gone with Weaver? He was the founder of Lincoln Project – what happened sprockets?

  10. I love the origin of the ‘Mavis Branstom’ moniker….

    It refers to a foreign (usually US and usually C Grade) talent brought in to give ‘star’ power to a production (correct me if I am wrong)…

  11. Player One @ #959 Monday, January 18th, 2021 – 7:53 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #956 Monday, January 18th, 2021 – 7:37 pm

    Because that would mean Bill!

    The choice seems to be between Bill (Victoria) or Jim (Queensland). I don’t think there are any other realistic options, and being realistic about it, Labor may have simply left it too late to go with either.

    Gee, if only we had a way of knowing how Bill would go in an election, especially against Morrison.

  12. Hopefully Labor are not changing leaders. The Liberals would love it, “we’re in a pandemic and they’re only thinking of themselves ” type scripts would be used to drown out anything Labor was planning.
    Shorten is a known entity, maybe some references to his campaign especially the things that got knocked back but became important for example aerial fire equipment. The case could be made that Bill was robbed because of Morrisons and Palmers lies and the country can’t afford to make the same mistake twice. Use his runs on the board to support Albanese, talk about the team versus a one man show.

  13. Zerlo

    My heart bleeds.

    It’s a real horror show in there 😆

    Sierra said she was eager to leave quarantine to “get her hair done”.

    “This is the worst part of quarantine,” she said

  14. Assantdj @ #777 Monday, January 18th, 2021 – 10:12 pm

    Hopefully Labor are not changing leaders. The Liberals would love it, “we’re in a pandemic and they’re only thinking of themselves ” type scripts would be used to drown out anything Labor was planning.
    Shorten is a known entity, maybe some references to his campaign especially the things that got knocked back but became important for example aerial fire equipment. The case could be made that Bill was robbed because of Morrisons and Palmers lies and the country can’t afford to make the same mistake twice. Use his runs on the board to support Albanese, talk about the team versus a one man show.

    Labor’s going to get done like a dinner this year.
    Find something else to be interested in.
    The era of the Scrote has just begun.
    The 2030s are Labor’s for the taking.

  15. It’s only a matter of time and we’ll be sharing tips on pruning and crochet on PB.
    Maybe Jen and the girls could make a podcast?

  16. The US is ‘Opposite Land’ when it comes to handling the virus and suucess/failure.
    .
    .
    One Year, 400,000 Coronavirus Deaths: How the U.S. Guaranteed Its Own Failure

    …….. Trump………………in a pivotal failure, abdicated responsibility for a pandemic that required a national effort to defeat it, handing key decisions over to states under the assumption that they would take on the fight and get the country back to business.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/17/us/covid-deaths-2020.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

  17. Big bushfire here for the past four days, out along the Horse Point Road on the way to Seal Rocks. At least 100 hectares lost. Much smoke, plus a few nervous residents hoping the wind direction didn’t change. Charcoaled Banksia leaves on our deck, floating down from 3km away, pressed the point home. Dawn ’til dusk helicopter water bombardment yesterday was very loud and somewhat unsettling.

    Cause was: lightning strike during a thunderstorm. Who’d have thought this could happen during one of the wettest periods on record?

    But there you go: life is stranger than fiction.

  18. Mundo
    Its good to see you back refreshed and relaxed after your efforts last year.
    I believe the pre Christmas polls indicate voters preferences are much the same as at the last election.
    Certainly the efforts of the right wing media duopoly remain the same as at the last election.
    Certainly the efforts of PM Morrison and the corrupt government, Morrison leads, remain the same as at the last election.
    Whether the voters ard prepared to swallow the mindless bullshit from the Morrison LNP remains to be seen.
    Whether the voters see beyond the precarious Morrison efforts in response to Covid 19 remain to be seen.
    The Covid 19 mindset is untested. As is the Morrison created China problem.
    Employment, health services, aged care and the environment remain considerations.
    The often overlooked hip pocket reaction is constant.
    The media and Albanese’s enemies have been hard at work, as have the Bill haters.
    The rural rainfall production boost is playing well for Morrison despite the Barnaby hated Mick Somebody as the rural leader and deputy leader.
    Iron ore is swimming across the seas at a good price together with its gaseous cousin.
    The economy seemingly not a calamitous sinkhole of despair.
    Mundo, you are maybe correct with your predictions.
    Certainly PB doesn’t accurately represent voterland!
    Many of us do live in a bubble of unfounded hope perhaps, but the situation is not hopeless.
    Oh, for a glass of deep red positivity, surprising on the first taste, refreshing, with a good, long, lingering sensation as it clears the throat.

  19. He’ll wear us down like water on a stone. Screenshotting the front page of The Lolstralian, day after day after day. That’ll show us who’s boss!

  20. Top notch early Gollism there ! full marks.

    Mundo is right at least for this years election – 2025 who knows , there’s still the macklin /bracks party reform recommendations , maybe that will be a game changer ?

  21. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #163 Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 – 7:02 am

    Wealthy and entitled, don’t worry about anyone else.

    WHO: just 25 Covid vaccine doses administered in low-income countries

    Director-general warns of ‘catastrophic moral failure’ if richer countries hoard treatment

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/18/who-just-25-covid-vaccine-doses-administered-in-low-income-countries

    I’d question that by saying they’ve administered millions in India. It’s hardly a wealthy country like Australia, the US and the UK.

  22. Lars

    No, the Bracks/Macklin report is too limited in scope – it’s confined to Victoria, just for starters, and Victorian Labor is quite good at winning elections.

  23. Too little, too late. Wonder what happened during his holiday to wake him up.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has finally delivered a stronger rebuke of Donald Trump following the insurrection at the US Capitol in Washington DC, saying the President’s actions had encouraged “terrible” outcomes.

    “The things that were said that encouraged others to come to the Capitol and engage in that way were incredibly disappointing,” Mr Morrison told 2GB radio on Monday.

    When asked if he was specifically “disappointed” in Mr Trump, Mr Morrison answered “I’ve echoed the comments of other leaders about those things”.

    No, he didn’t. He’s rewriting history again.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/01/19/morrison-trump-capitol-insurrection-disappointing/

  24. Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    ·
    5m
    Banking royal commission: most recommendations have been abandoned or delayed | Australia news | The Guardian

    Well, that’s in line with all the rest of the gov promises.

  25. I always knew mundo would end up going down The Australian rabbit hole. The Australian sucks in the ones that think they’re smart enough to read it and not get sucked in to the Murdoch alternate reality. Lol. And they usually justify it by saying they only read it for the Gideon Haigh cricket column or something equally ass covering. 😆

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