Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August to November

The latest deep dive from Newspoll suggests no particular change in the spread of party support by state since the last election.

The Australian has published the concluding quarterly set of aggregated Newspoll breakdowns for the year, showing results by state, gender, age, education, income, language and religion.

The results have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, a two point shift to the Coalition since last quarter; Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, a one point shift to the Coalition; the Coalition leading 57-43 in Queensland, a two point shift to Labor; the Coalition leading 53-47 in Western Australia, a one point shift to Labor; and the Coalition leading 51-49 in South Australia, a one point shift to the Coalition.

The Australian’s report leads with Labor’s weak position among men, but the gender breakdowns are in fact unchanged on last time with the Coalition leading 53-47 among men and Labor leading 51-49 among women. Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 cohort widens from 58-42 to 61-39, but there is now a tie among the 35-to-49 cohort after Labor lead 53-47 last time. The Coalition’s leads among the older cohorts are little changed, at 55-45 among 50-to-64 and 62-38 among 65-plus.

The recorded gap between English speakers and those who speak a different language at home has narrowed slightly, with the Coalition’s lead among the former going from 52-48 to 51-49 and Labor’s lead among the latter narrowing from 56-44 to 54-46. The other breakdowns record no notable pattern of change: two-party splits vary little by education (although education associates positively with Greens support and negatively with One Nation support); there is no great variation by income until the $150,000-plus cohort, which broke 55-45 for the Coalition; and Christians breaking 59-41 for the Coalition, while those of no religion going 57-43 to Labor.

The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from August to November, from a combined sample of 8123.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,302 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August to November”

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  1. For Australia’s sake, the fossil fuel cartel needs to be blasted out of the federal parliament.

    Voters in the inner and outer suburbs need to strategically help the regions move on with their lives at the next election away from fossil fuel jobs because they can’t/won’t help themselves.

  2. Hillsong is just a modern day religious form of theatrical performance – without the cosplay.

    The producers and actors that present the shows have done very well at the box office.

  3. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #149 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 1:28 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #NaN Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 6:00 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #21 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 8:33 am

    Fitzgibbon cutting through?

    Is that why he’s no longer a part of the shadow Cabinet and came close to losing his seat at the last election?

    So, that’s now four critics of Fitzgibbon telling the PB Board that Fitzgibbon is irrelevant and not cutting through because he gathers publicity but no one is listening to him and he’s yesterdays man.

    Labor Man with idea to genereate and keep people in jobs is a person the suburban left find dangerous and threatening.

    Notice you didn’t address the question. 😆

    Notice that you are so wrapped up in your own prejudices that you don’t comprehend that Fitzgibbon gets plenty of publicity and has influence in the broader community.

    Why do you think that happens?

  5. ‘WeWantPaul says:
    Saturday, December 26, 2020 at 1:19 pm

    If you are defending the coal industry, buying or selling coal you are a climate criminal and you deserve whatever fire, storm or flood headed you way.’

    Funnily enough, regional voters understand the gist of this comment perfectly well. It is why around 96% of them vote against the Greens and why around another 50% don’t trust Labor’s possible dalliance with the Greens.

    The regional electorates deserve what is coming to them because they are all climate, irrigation water and animal cruelty criminals. Drain the regional swamp. Lock them up!

    BTW, have you checked all of YOUR consumables, services – sewage, water, road, rail, vehicle usage, health, defence, education, and all your personal capital items for coal energy components?

    Do you have to go and live in a cave because your personal dwelling embeds scads of coal, oil and gas – generated components? Houses build on sand are one thing. But houses built on climate crime… well, I mean to say!

    What about your food? Zero coal, oil and gas component? No petrochemical feedstock for fertilizers and pesticides? No criminal irrigation, one hopes? Feeding off the proceeds of climate crime is a bit OTT, no?

    Have you rejected that proportion of any government transfers that come from coal, oil, uranium, and gas royalties as being the proceeds of crime?

    When it comes to climate criminality one can’t be too careful!

  8. Funnily enough

    I don’t think regional voters are nearly as stupid as you think they are.

    I think you’ve got them wrong.

    There is a small but loud vocal component to regional communities, usually exercising their voices from a very posh seaside suburb of a capital city, having come from arranging a corrupt payment from a corrupt LNP polly (do they even come in other types), who are lazy and stupid and are used to the Government subsidising everything they do and paying for all their mistakes. Effectively socialist living a Govt funded elite urban life they haven’t earned.

    That cohort are as stupid as they are greedy and would happily sacrifice the GBR and even their grandchildren to a lake of fire for $10.

    They are the ‘regional’ voices you seemed to have tapped into. You should tap out.

  9. I think the voters in “the Regions” may well be MORE aware than city voters of the size and inevitability of the changes coming in the world order. They are generally more directly dependant for their incomes and lifestyles on what we export, from minerals to tourism experiences.

    Seems to me they are weathervaning a bit at the moment in political terms as they work out which side of politics is more likely to protect their interests in a time of great change.

    Morrison managed to squeak over that line in 2019 but Labor has been doing it more lately (Qld, NT, Eden-Monaro).

    I think Labor is putting plenty of work in at the local level, although it rarely reaches the national media. I know in Queensland there is a strong regional strategy in place with Labor Senators. I see more signs of hope than despair at the moment.

  10. Rex Douglas @ #157 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 10:36 am

    WeWantPaul @ #157 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 1:35 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #152 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 10:32 am

    Hillsong is just a modern day religious form of theatrical performance – without the cosplay.

    The producers and actors that present the shows have done very well at the box office.

    A very expensive theatre for members of the cult.

    They seem to be happy customers. Good luck to them.

    They deserve better from their leaders.

  13. AJM
    Quite right, IMO. There at least 50 shades of grey in every regional electorate.
    The Government has been quietly funding stuff (meetings, workshops) that involves farmers and regions developing climate change resilience. I have seen National Party MPs suggesting to their constituents that they attend. The driver is quite obvious: most farmers are perfectly conscious that their bottom lines are being affected by trend changes in climate.

  14. Where the likes of Hillsong and the traditional religious cosplay theatre goes wrong is its intervention in the parliaments’ business for tax related purposes.

    As what is clearly a professional business model, the parliamentary privileges these outfits are granted are outrageous.

  15. For the past couple of months we have been fastidiously checking every purchase to see whether it comes from China.

    If it comes from China, we don’t buy it. Simple as that. As we have gone through each item it struck me that (a) there were some items that we did not really need in the first place, that (b) some items were riddled with extra food miles and (c) that buying from a high- and growing- CO2 emitting nation was just another form of climate criminality.

    I understand that there are some laws around secondary boycotts and the like so I won’t be urging fellow bludgers to follow our lead.

    But we won’t be buying from China until Xi’s trade punishment ceases.

  16. Greensborough Growler @ #NaN Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 10:33 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #149 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 1:28 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #NaN Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 6:00 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #21 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 8:33 am

    Fitzgibbon cutting through?

    Is that why he’s no longer a part of the shadow Cabinet and came close to losing his seat at the last election?

    So, that’s now four critics of Fitzgibbon telling the PB Board that Fitzgibbon is irrelevant and not cutting through because he gathers publicity but no one is listening to him and he’s yesterdays man.

    Labor Man with idea to genereate and keep people in jobs is a person the suburban left find dangerous and threatening.

    Notice you didn’t address the question. 😆

    Notice that you are so wrapped up in your own prejudices that you don’t comprehend that Fitzgibbon gets plenty of publicity and has influence in the broader community.

    Why do you think that happens?

    Prejudices?

    I constantly argue that any focus on coal is counterproductive.

    It distracts from the real issues that we need to deal with just much as any anti-coal proponent.

    The media like him because he provides them click bait.

  17. boerwar @ #166 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 1:59 pm

    For the past couple of months we have been fastidiously checking every purchase to see whether it comes from China.

    If it comes from China, we don’t buy it. Simple as that. As we have gone through each item it struck me that (a) there were some items that we did not really need in the first place, that (b) some items were riddled with extra food miles and (c) that buying from a high- and growing- CO2 emitting nation was just another form of climate criminality.

    I understand that there are some laws around secondary boycotts and the like so I won’t be urging fellow bludgers to follow our lead.

    But we won’t be buying from China until Xi’s trade punishment ceases.

    Good job boerwar.

    It’s time we all paid a little more for Australian made and owned (except Harvey Norman).

  18. All this anguish over the loss of relatively few coal jobs. Quite a contrast with the great numbers of TCF workers turfed under the bus when their industry was deemed no longer viable or in the national interest. I wonder if it was because so many of the workers were Vietnamese, Italian and Greek migrant women ?

  19. “Hillsong is to the new testament what McDonalds food packaging is to fine dining.”

    The difference is, McDonalds don’t pretend to be fine dining.

  20. Hello good people!
    I decided today to solve my laptop problems by buying a new laptop!

    Guess what? It doesn’t seem to have solved my PB problems. *sigh*

    * No log in box

    * No edit function

    I think I can safely conclude now that this will be a problem no one will ever be able to solve!

    Or, might I say, that this problem is between me, PB and WordPress and not my computer. No matter which computer or browser I use.

    Neato new laptop though, bought for me by my son at the JB Hi Fi Boxing Day Sale. A HP Pavilion. 😀

    (The old one was starting to fall apart though. No ‘t’ and stuff like that)

    If anyone out there in the PB community would like a second hand laptop with a dodgy ‘t’ (but with a peripheral laptop keyboard that does have a ‘t’ that works), let me know. My son would like me to try and get something back for it because it’s only 12 months old but if you can’t afford it I’ll let it slide 🙂 )

  23. ‘poroti says:
    Saturday, December 26, 2020 at 2:14 pm

    All this anguish over the loss of relatively few coal jobs. Quite a contrast with the great numbers of TCF workers turfed under the bus when their industry was deemed no longer viable or in the national interest. I wonder if it was because so many of the workers were Vietnamese, Italian and Greek migrant women ?’

    Alas, the political abuse of the term ‘jobs’ is all pervasive. JobsnGrowth comes to mind. Once again, it is useful to put ourselves in the place of someone who has a job, a mortgage and a couple of children in the regions. Assuming that the single most important economic thing in their domestic economy is their job, what are they to think, and how are they to vote, if they are irrigation criminals, uranium criminals, coal criminals, gas criminals, rodeo criminals, oil criminals and so on and so forth. How will they join their dots?

  24. It is interesting for the past 12 months that the most required source is COAL at 70%. We need coal and we need coal power stations – pretty simple – otherwise there will be no electricity. Look at the AMEO – NEM dashboard.

  25. I went and hung the washing on the line and when I came back we had lost another wicket.

    That is the last time will hang the washing out during play for this Test.

  28. In the Hunter, about 85% of AMWU members work directly on coalmines or in related industries. Cory Wright, the union’s NSW secretary, believes it is his obligation to warn workers that shifts in global investment will influence their jobs, and to demand greater clarity from governments about climate action.

    “Politics has driven a wedge between environmentalism and job security, that you can only have one or the other,” he says.

    Wright has been leading worker information sessions about transitioning away from coal, and while he notes many are initially apprehensive, he believes most want to see a proactive approach from government.

    “We know there will be changes in demand for coal, it’s just irresponsible to not warn our workers of the storm we see coming,” he says.

    The national co-convenor of Lean, Felicity Wade, who is part of the Hunter Jobs Alliance, believes the focus on jobs is key to winning back voters in mining communities who abandoned Labor in the 2019 election.

    “Talking vaguely about transition plans doesn’t cut it. We need to get to the point where we talk about which industries we’re backing as the future, and we need to get specific, about which plot of land facilities will be built on, and which towns they’ll be in, so people believe there will be job opportunities.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/15/where-are-the-jobs-nsw-coal-towns-cling-to-the-past-until-a-better-future-emerges

    Albanese, or his potential replacement, needs to intervene in Hunter with a captains pick (from the AMWU) to run as the next Hunter candidate for Labor.

  30. BW: “WWP
    I am going on how the regional voters are actually voting. You?”

    The vibe, I guess. WWP says he’s a lawyer, so perhaps he’s an acolyte of Dennis Denuto.

  31. Rex Douglas: “In the Hunter, about 85% of AMWU members work directly on coalmines or in related industries.”

    Fascinating, if true. In one of the traditional heartlands of Australian manufacturing, the union that purports to represent factory workers draws most of its remaining membership from the mining sector.

    This says everything you need to know about the current and likely future state of the Australian manufacturing sector.

  33. The ALP needs a more powerful AMWU representation in policy development.

    At the moment, Bill Shortens AWU, which is a key member of the cross-party parliamentary fossil fuel cartel, is holding Labor back electorally by allowing the Greens to wedge them hard.

  34. enjaybee @ #178 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 2:50 pm

    C@T

    Did you try using Firefox or dismiss using it because of what somebody said about it.

    It’s back! Well, the log in box. I don’t know about the new edit function until I post this comment. At least I can access the dashboard again. Phew! Do you have any idea why it’s so different for different browsers? Yet not for all people who use PB?

  42. KayJay @ #188 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 3:18 pm

    C@tmomma @ #187 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 3:13 pm

    And log in details haven’t transferred back through to Brave now that I am logged in through Firefox.

    They are entirely separate items. You still have to log each in.

    Edit no longer is a function of the Dashboard.

    Edit should show in the stream of posts as shown in the next post…

    Well, no it doesn’t on Brave and yes I’m using C+ on Firefox and Brave. 🙂

    Thanks for letting me know about the Edit/Dashboard change. 🙂

  45. Aussie golfing great Greg Norman says his friend Donald Trump has exceeded expectations, praising his early months in the White House, saying “every day he becomes more presidential”.

    https://shark.com/sharkwatch/news/norman-backs-trump-05-01-2017/

    nek minnit

    “This sums it all up. My Christmas Day. On behalf of millions, fuck Covid,” Norman wrote to his 188,000 followers “Get this shit behind us never to experience it again.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/26/australian-golf-great-greg-norman-tests-positive-for-covid-19

  46. So 300-ish backpackers partying on a southern Sydney beach is riot squad material, but tens of thousands of mostly mask-less shoppers crammed into a shopping mall is OK. Sydneysiders holidaying/fleeing all over the state in record numbers. Unbelievable!

  47. Sohar @ #197 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 3:43 pm

    So 300-ish backpackers partying on a southern Sydney beach is riot squad material, but tens of thousands of mostly mask-less shoppers crammed into a shopping mall is OK. Sydneysiders holidaying/fleeing all over the state in record numbers. Unbelievable!

    Crooked Gladys doesn’t seem to garner much respect from her constituents.

    #StrongLeadership

  49. “ I do think a case could be made for Khawaja, who has always seemed to me to be a class above the likes of Harris, Burns, Renshaw, Bancroft et al. But Usman has disappointed in the past and has always gone better a little down the order.”

    With respect Meha, your characterisation of Khawaja’s test career is fundamentally wrong. He has been in and out of the Australian test team for a decade, for the first five of those years he was picked down the order – out of his natural position – and was, IMO the convenient scapegoat for the rest of the top 6 who were failing just as badly.

    When the electors finally put him in at the top of the order, he’s been brilliant. Especially in Australia. However once again, he’s been the scapegoat for all the top 6 failures in overseas tests – particularly in the sub continent.

    The fact remains though – as a makeshift opener – he averages over 80 with 4 of his 8 test centuries scored in that position.

    And he’s just about the form shield batsman right now.

    It is absurd that he’s not opening, especially given the injuries to our preferred opener as and the parlours form of all the other pretenders.

    I wonder why that might be …

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