The Australian has published the concluding quarterly set of aggregated Newspoll breakdowns for the year, showing results by state, gender, age, education, income, language and religion.
The results have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, a two point shift to the Coalition since last quarter; Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, a one point shift to the Coalition; the Coalition leading 57-43 in Queensland, a two point shift to Labor; the Coalition leading 53-47 in Western Australia, a one point shift to Labor; and the Coalition leading 51-49 in South Australia, a one point shift to the Coalition.
The Australian’s report leads with Labor’s weak position among men, but the gender breakdowns are in fact unchanged on last time with the Coalition leading 53-47 among men and Labor leading 51-49 among women. Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 cohort widens from 58-42 to 61-39, but there is now a tie among the 35-to-49 cohort after Labor lead 53-47 last time. The Coalition’s leads among the older cohorts are little changed, at 55-45 among 50-to-64 and 62-38 among 65-plus.
The recorded gap between English speakers and those who speak a different language at home has narrowed slightly, with the Coalition’s lead among the former going from 52-48 to 51-49 and Labor’s lead among the latter narrowing from 56-44 to 54-46. The other breakdowns record no notable pattern of change: two-party splits vary little by education (although education associates positively with Greens support and negatively with One Nation support); there is no great variation by income until the $150,000-plus cohort, which broke 55-45 for the Coalition; and Christians breaking 59-41 for the Coalition, while those of no religion going 57-43 to Labor.
The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from August to November, from a combined sample of 8123.
How can a ‘small child’ be included in the numbers? GladysB said children are not affected by C19?
Gladys says the strategy is working!
ugh?
shellbell @ #91 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 10:58 am
Oh, I agree and I wouldn’t have picked him.
Just adding in the credit to Bumrah. Fantastic bowler, great to watch.
The politics of climate change works such that the LNP and the No Windmills Party make gains at Labor’s expense. Labor have been on the losing end of this discourse since the 1990s. This is not going to change. Whether they voice the kind of lines that would make P1 happy or they evince positions that would keep FitzGibbon happy, they will be campaigning against themselves. The goal for Labor has been damage limitation….to stem the hemorrhage of votes among working people. This has worked in some places and not in others.
By contrast, the LNP visibly campaign against effective and prompt action to arrest climate change. This has kept them in power.
Player One @ #95 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 11:02 am
The point of a discussion is hearing alternative points of view. So, it’s not actually a competition.
By and large it’s been OK. Sure a lot of posters are reciting their rosary bead prayers. But, that’s OK.
Your just a serial fuckwit and really not worth engaging.
Has Australia had a prime minster without a good head of hair other than Sir William McMahon?
Spray
I think Bumrah has had enough of a bowl now!
Greensborough Growler @ #105 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 11:09 am
You don’t like it when people disagree with you, do you?
Those attacking Joe Burns should consider the viable alternatives. The main one would be Harris, who also has technical flaws and whose test record is worse than that of Burns.
Perhaps Steve Smith could be persuaded to open? Or even Paine: although the combination of opening, keeping and captaining is a lot to ask of one player.
MB
Harris
Khawaja
Daniel Hughes
Wetherald
The Tassie blokes
Qlders
Even Bancroft although he is a bit cut from the same cloth
They are all better and don’t have some bullshit technique introduced in the teenage years which Australian coaching staff can’t overcome
BK @ #12 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 8:00 am
I don’t normally find Richard Glover funny – but he hits the spot with these predictions:
shellbell @ #89 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 8:10 am
Scott Morrison.
And Howard.
I have recently moved house and in the process my electoral enrolment changed from Fremantle to Hasluck. The member for Hasluck duly wrote to me as a newly enrolled voter to introduce himself, welcome me to Hasluck and spout about the achievements of the Liberals.
He also took the opportunity to solicit a response to a political quiz….who did I usually support? What’s the best way to get in touch with me? The quiz asked me to nominate 4 issues that I care about from a list of about 20. Not one of the 20 mentioned the environment or climate change. The closest mention was reducing the costs of energy. Nothing about cutting emissions. Nothing about coal. Nothing about gas. Nothing about renewables.
The Liberals are a study avoidance and deflection. This very obviously works well for them. Hasluck was once considered marginal. It’s almost ready to be re-classified as a safe Lib-held seat. It’s the kind of seat that Labor really should be winning and would be winning if it were in office.
shellbell @ #110 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 11:20 am
The Coach thinks he’s a good bloke.
That’s all the talent and technique you need.
Greensborough Growler @ #82 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 9:39 am
The recent QUEENSLAND election was run and won by LABOR on a bit zero 2050 policy.
Net Zero not bit zero
wombat, on antibodies:
The post-exposure monoclonal antibody prophylaxis trial (AZD7442) looks promising, with AstraZeneca still in the running for a pot of gold.
Gotta have a catch phrase these days = Storm Chaser.
Wade called the Power Surge too early
shellbell: The lack of obvious alternatives is illustrated by the length of the list you have provided, which features several players who, like Burns and Harris, have been tried and failed in the past.
I do think a case could be made for Khawaja, who has always seemed to me to be a class above the likes of Harris, Burns, Renshaw, Bancroft et al. But Usman has disappointed in the past and has always gone better a little down the order.
The heralded solution in recent times has been Pucovski. I have to say I’ve always been a bit suspicious of highly-acclaimed Victorian players: it’s a very parochial state which has long struggled to achieve anything like a proportional representation in the Aussie team, so the Melbourne media and cricket establishment tend to puff up any young prospect as a potential superstar: but, in my quite long lifetime, Shane Warne is the only true superstar to emerge from Victoria.
Like most of us, I’ve never seen Pucovski bat in white flannel cricket. His tendency to get hit by short balls is certainly a worry, given that the bowling he will face in tests will generally be faster and more aggressive than in the Sheffield Shield game. So I am sceptical that he will prove to be a long-term solution either.
It’s a problem, but one that Australia has faced in the past, and has solved with manufactured openers who have sometimes turned out much better than anticipated: eg, Boon and Marsh. Perhaps Wade can become another such.
In WA, the MacGowan government is running a strong set of policies on the environment and climate change, which will include the eventual displacement of most fossil fuels from the electricity sector. This will entail the closure of the last coal-powered generators and the consequent closure of mining at Collie. This has included the near total ban on fracking in the State jurisdiction.
However, it’s most unlikely that this has been noticed by most voters. They simply take it for granted that this will happen and expect the State to manage this effectively.
MacGowan is very popular indeed. But this is attributable to his management of Covid and the budget, and correspondingly to the results in the labour market. I really doubt that Labor’s environment policies would shift 1/50 votes, as good as they are, generally speaking. The responses of the Liberals and the No Windmills Party – needless to say – have been to entirely ignore Labor’s programs in the environment. Nothing to see here is their motto.
The battle for control of the predominantly Jewish seat, Melbourne Ports/Macnamara, was held at the 2019 federal election and Labor prevailed.
Labor also has Mark Dreyfus on its Shadow Front Bench.
The Coalition have Josh Freydenburg and Julian Leesk.
I’m thinking that it’s still pretty much an open question which party prevails with the Jewish community.
Well that’s Boxing Day stuffed.
Spray @ #123 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 11:43 am
Yep. Buggered my day.
KayJay
Cheer up, it’s my 60th birthday, no one is meant to be unhappy!
Happy Birthday Zoomster!
And good umpiring Paul Reiffel.
zoomster @ #125 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 11:50 am
I wish you everything your youthful heart could desire.
I’m not really unhappy. After all I woke up this morning. 😎
And in other Boxing Days news, religion is in global decline.
The key factor appears to be ‘fertility’. We are now well into a modern world that is able to deal with the imperative of sustaining populations in other ways, other than enforcing high birth rates by condemning to eternal suffering any human relationship other than the one where the woman is there to be a breeder, and any sexual activity not related directly to childbearing as the act of the devil.
Insecurity is another main driver of religious adherence. The closing comments of the article note that insecurity is never that far away, as Covid-19 has highlighted.
As usual, exceptions apply, and in this story, it is the Muslim-majority based countries.
Quite an interesting read imo:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2020-08-11/religion-giving-god?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=How%20a%20Great%20Power%20Falls%20Apart&utm_content=20201225&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017
Happy Birthday zoomster!
And KayJay, looking good.
It’s a stretch to describe Macnamara as “predominantly Jewish”, although it’s certainly a seat in which Jewish votes are influential, and they are the largest single religious group in a couple of suburbs within the seat (Caulfield and St. Kilda East). At the last Census 9.9% were Jewish (compared with averages of 0.7% for Victoria and 0.4% for Australia).
Through my studies this year, I made two new friends who happen to be Jewish. Both are impressive people, highly intelligent, politically aware. Both passionately Jewish.
Opposite ends of the political spectrum though. The right-winger had a career in finance, the lefty is a freelance writer. It struck me that their fields of endeavour might be a better predictor of their political position than their religion is.
Would be interesting to see some stats though, if they exist.
At least there are a couple of bright spots in celebrating Hogmanay with Level 4 lockdown.
“A SUPERMARKET has slashed prices on premium Scottish whisky brands as Scots prepare to spend Hogmanay celebrating at home.
……….
With the tight restrictions meaning New Year will be like none we’ve had before, Morrisons has reduced prices across its whisky range to help people bring in the bells from the comfort of their homes.”
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18969140.morrisons-slashes-prices-premium-scottish-whisky-ahead-hogmanay/
and
“DISCOUNT supermarket Lidl has unveiled a new “super premium” 16 year old Islay single malt.
Ben Bracken, due to hit the shelves in time for Christmas, will sell for £34.99.
It’s the latest single malt to come from Lidl.”
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18891306.lidl-launch-super-premium-16-year-old-islay-single-malt-bargain-price/
Happy Hogmanay/New Year to all Bludgers.
Out.
Nearly.
It is sad to think that many of the mainsprings of Labor’s formation and evolution came from the regions.
1. Interpreting Fitzgibbon’s electoral result in the last election is useful in parts and counterproductive in parts.
2. Labor needed to win regional seats in the last federal election. Nah. Fitzgibbon’s outcome was part of general regional trend.
3. But there were some elements peculiar to Fitzgibbon’s outcomes.
4. While plenty of Far Left and Greens commentators can’t wait to savage Fitzgibbon, not one has been able to explain why Fitzgibbon’s margin collapsed between just two elections after years in the electorate. Could it just happen to be that Hunter is THE coal seat in Australia and Fitzgibbon was wedged between the Far Right and the Far Left on coal?
5. The guy who took a swag of votes off Fitzgibbon just happened to be a…. coal miner.
6. Fitzgibbon was saddled with the Adani Convoy blowback and a wedged Labor position on coal.
7. The Greens, who are the self-appointed thought leaders on coal policies, climate change and actually getting elected to make a difference on climate change, made no electoral inroads at all in the regions during the last Queensland election. IMO, they are dead ender fuck-the-regions when it comes to regions
BTW, those who think that all Labor has to do to regain the Lost Regions is to finessing its coal policy have obviously not spent a nanosecond in the regions. Coal is only the beginning.
The regional vote is not only economic policy-based. It is a cultural vote. Cotton; irrigation; defence spending; rodeos; uranium mining; biofuels; self-regarding urban elites; forestry; subsidies for regional industries; electric utes; national parks; commercial fisheries…
Labor has a massive cultural struggle on its hands. Coal is the electoral loss leader but there is a constellation of policy settings that are required to regain Labor’s Lost Regions.
Spray
I am not an expert, but you might find it useful to work out the political differences between orthodox and secular jews.
Think you’re right Boerwar. But there’s a middle ground as well isn’t there? The people I’ve referred to are definitely “religious” Jews, but I’m not sure either would identify as Orthodox. Maybe the right-winger would, I dunno.
Anyway I’m not trying to draw any conclusions based on a sample size of two!
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
19,210,166
Deaths:
338,263
– 98,840 new cases and 1,197 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Hillsong: we’ll do the praying if you donate. How good’s that!!!
McNamara is a diverse electorate and its really only St Kilda preventing it from flipping to the Liberals. The Jewish dominated booths around Caulfield are already firmly Liberal and its possible Caulfield will be shifted out of McNamara in the next redistribution. The ALP will be hoping it goes to Goldstein and some of it might but it could also be split between Higgins and Hotham.
phoenixRED @ #140 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 12:55 pm
Grim reaper taking it easy over Christmas.
A religion exhorting one not to pray?
BSA Bob @ #144 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 1:09 pm
It’s a parody account Bob. Though it seems to capture the essence of Hillsong.
If you are defending the coal industry, buying or selling coal you are a climate criminal and you deserve whatever fire, storm or flood headed you way.
Spray
Hillsong needs more parodies. They are already a parody of a religion.
boerwar @ #136 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 12:37 pm
It is quite true that there are many more regional issues than just Coal. However, after watching Labor tear itself apart over one single issue – the simplest and most clear-cut of all the interrelated environmental issues – who seriously expects Labor to be able to tackle any of the really complex issues? Against real opposition?
The worst thing about Labor’s ongoing Coal War is the damage it has done to its credibility. As has been said many times: If you can’t manage your own party, why should the electorate trust you to manage the country?
Simply pretending the issue does not exist is not really an answer either. Everyone (always excepting the gibbons) seems to agree the coal industry is approaching terminal decline. The issue is whether we choose to manage that decline to minimize the resulting damage.
Greensborough Growler @ #NaN Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 6:00 am
Notice you didn’t address the question. 😆
lizzie @ #147 Saturday, December 26th, 2020 – 10:21 am
Hillsong is to the new testament what McDonalds food packaging is to fine dining.