The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds 67% rating the federal government’s COVID-19 response as good, unchanged on a fortnight ago, with the poor rating down two to 13% – its strongest net result in this regular series since June. The small sample state breakdowns find the South Australian government’s positive rating down six to 70%, which I believe is the lowest it has yet recorded, although it might not pay to read too much into that given the near double-digit margin of error. The results for the other four mainland state are all up by one point: to 76% for New South Wales, 60% for Victoria, 72% for Queensland and 83% for Western Australia.
Respondents were also asked about their level of interest in various news stories: 69% said they were closely following the COVID-19 outbreak in South Australia, against 31% for not closely; 66% likewise for COVID-19 vaccine trials, and 34% for not closely; 56% closely for Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn his election defeat, with 44% for not closely; and 53% closely for war crimes allegations against Australian soliders, against 47% for not closely. The poll also found 37% felt the government spent too much on foreign aid, down four points since 2017, with spends too little steady on 16% and the right amount up four to 23%. Also featured was a series of detailed questions on climate change and coal-fired power plants, which you can read all about in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1034.
In other news, Antony Green peruses the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ report recommending action to preserve the Northern Territory’s second House of Representatives seat, which otherwise stands to be lost based on the territory’s share of the national population. Significantly, he notes that the proposed removal of an existing tweak to the calculation that was added to help the Northern Territory get over the line back in 2004 now stands to cost the Australian Capital Territory the third seat it gained at the last election – perhaps explaining why the government has been so sanguine about preserving Labor-held seats in the Northern Territory.
The change in 2004 made use of the margin of error the Australian Bureau of Statistics provides for its population estimates for the territories, requiring that the figure at the top end of the range be used in making the determination. Whereas the most recent determination credited the ACT with 2.55 quotas, rounding up to three seats, it would have only have been 2.48 if the ABS’s straightforward estimate had been used. There is no suggestion of changing the existing determination to cost the ACT its third seat at the next election, but a significant growth in population would be needed if the third seat was to be preserved at the next election after.
Antony Green’s submission to the inquiry suggested that, in addition to giving the territories a minimum of two seats, the calculation be made not on the basis of the garden variety arithmetic mean, but on the harmonic mean, which would be less prone to rounding down for the territories and smaller states. This method has the virtue of producing “an allocation of seats with a population per member closer to the national quota than the arithmetic mean”. The committee – apparently including the four Labor and one Greens members as well as the five from the government, since there was no dissenting report – acknowledged the logic of this but cited “problems with the potential for public acceptance”
Mention should also be made of Saturday’s by-election in the regional Queensland seat of Groom, which did nothing to alter its complexion as a safe seat for the Coalition. The LNP candidate, Garth Hamilton, currently has 66.9% of the two-party preferred vote with only a handful of votes outstanding, representing a 3.6% swing to Labor Œ more or less the same size of the swing in the Longman by-election that did for Malcolm Turnbull in 2018, though on that occasion his critics could point to a 9.4% drop in the LNP vote as One Nation surged to 15.9%. The One Nation factor went untested on this occasion, since the party did not field a candidate, although the party’s performance in the recent state election suggested they would only have done a limited amount of damage.
Of perhaps more note than the result is the pattern of turnout in the second by-election held during COVID-19 (the first being in Eden-Monaro only July 4): election day turnout was down 21.3%, from 53,943 to 42,490; pre-poll voting centres were up 0.8% from 25,169 to 25,380; and there have so far been 11,966 postal votes counted, compared with 14,108 at the 2019 election. Voter fraud fans may care to note that the LNP did better on election day votes (a 2.7% swing to Labor) than pre-poll votes (a 4.0% swing) and, especially, postal votes (a 7.3% swing).
Proves my point exactly.
If we can’t convict an “obviously” guilty man under the thousand year-old jury system, let’s abandon the jury system.
That’s as bad as Trump: “If I lose the election, I demand another one. If I lose that, then get rid of elections altogether. We all know I won, so no harm done. Right?”
Rape is rape is rape. No matter what the preceding circumstances. Or how ‘short the skirt, or tight the dress, or drunk, or ‘asking for it’, the woman was.
I don’t expect vainglorious middle-aged males with an over-inflated opinion of their opinion, to understand this. Especially one who glories in attacking women on this blog.
mundo … !!!!!
And your schtick is as boring as bat’s piss.
Isn’t it high time for you to piss off BB? No one likes you on here – even c@t has turned against your repugnant personal opinions!
Cat,
My view is protect yourself at all times.
I once had a situation where my daughter was driving a car under my supervision. She was learning and knew all the rules verbatim. We were coming in to an intersection and we needed to turn right. She had the Green arrow. But, I looked further and saw a vehicle that I thought might go through the red light they were facing. So, I said loudly, “Stop””. My daughter was angry until that car came straight through the intersection without stopping .
She looked at me and said, “He, broke the rules”. I said, “Yes, but we are both still alive”.
I reckon BB has got the gist and tone about right for this particular situation.
Rape is decided by the court.
Therefore, so far there has been no rape. This is the entire basis of the discussion.
We saw the same thing here with Pell. The assumption was that he was guilty and got off on a technicality. No he didn’t. He was acquitted. Not a new trial (which would have been the third). Acquitted, by the High Court.
Whatever Haynes’ moral situation, it is clear that in a contest between his evidence and the woman’s, the jury was unable to decide. In the British Justice system, that means “Not Guilty” – at least so far.
But as a general observation, there have been many cases of alleged rape involving young women, footy players, hotel rooms and drink or drugs brought before the criminal courts in recent years.
You would think that one side or the other of this equation would learn the lesson that such situations can lead to misunderstandings, heartbreak and expensive Court cases, usually without closure of a guilty verdict (or any verdict).
Some advice to the girls: keep away from group sex appointments with footy stars you meet in nightclubs. It may well end in tears.
Some advice to the men: keep away from group sex appointments with girls you meet in nightclubs. It may well end in tears.
The rest – assuming all men are rapists, the abandonment of our criminal law system to put the fix in – is wishful, and dangerous thinking.
No excusing the NRL guys actions but I’ve been out at nightclubs and seen how some girls behave around footballers and while that doesn’t excuse rape but these guys egos get boosted by the attention they get when out and about then you add alcohol or drugs then these things happen.
I think GG has provided a good analogy.
The question is, if GG had not yelled stop who would have been at fault, the young lady that had not learnt to drive defensively, or the guy or ran the red light be he drunk or otherwise.
Guy who ran red light although I am currently teaching my middle child GG’s lesson which is assume nothing when it comes to driving and that fault is not as important as a wellbeing.
Yabba
“In my understanding, an oronym is a word that sounds exactly like another word, like bare and bear, or hare and hair, ”
They are homophones.
“With regard to ‘mondegreen’, I can’t say that I have come across either Berejiklian or bin chicken in a song, but I suppose I could have a try at composing one.”
Please don’t. A mondegreen doesn’t have to be in a song; it can be any misunderstood or misinterpreted word or phrase. The most interesting mondegreens happen to be song lyrics.
I had a very similar situation as responsible driver supervising a young female L-plater.
We were on a 110kph freeway and she signalled to change lanes from the fast to slow lane. There was another car just behind us to the left. She nearly hit him.
“He speeded up to stop me changing lanes! He saw me signal!” she exclaimed.
I explained to her that, no matter what he was doing, right or wrong, courteous or discourteous, blinkers or no blinkers, if she’d hit him while changing into his lane, she’d be in the wrong.
She didn’t get it. Got furiously angry. She knew her rights.
I hope she’s safe.
Just wanted to say something I should have said earlier
Who gives a fuck about credit ratings agencies. They’re not that competent.
Rex
Its not victim shaming because some girls do go after these guys who are not always the smartest blokes but they are lucky to have money and good bodies. It works the otherway with women who have good bodies find it easier to get attention.
I know a girl that used to be a AFL WAG and some of the stories she has told me about girls openly hitting on her then partner in front of her and i have seen how some people behave under the influence and whilst in most cases its just fun but it can be a fine line between fun and not.
“And your schtick is as boring as bat’s piss.”
C@tmomma has you banged to rights, mundo.
You’re boring I TELLS YA!
CC,
People funding HSR projects.
Cud Chewer
Every last executive from every one of them should still be in jail for what they did pre GFC. Bundles of junk bundled up by the banksters and the ratings agencies happily putting AAA investment grade on the piles of shite. Oh and the Golden Sack etc etc banksters who did it should be cell mates with the ratings arseholes. But no, all “too big to fail” and bailed out by the peasantry. Grrrr.
My mondegreens
I could never work out why Dolly Parton and Kenny Rogers were singing about Eire’s secondary production
Or Wayne Newton was concerned about Dr. Shane
Kakuru @ #2054 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 8:47 pm
😉
Oakeshott
I was confused why the Go-Gos made such a fuss about Alex the seal. I’m sure he’s an eminent pinniped… but still.
Although Creedence Clearwater Revival were correct on at least one thing… the bathroom IS on the right.
poroti @ #2056 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 8:58 pm
Yes! And I sincerely hope that Joe Biden’s economic team tells them all to take a hike!
Not one word from the Ratings Agencies while Mnuchin/Kudlow and Trump were racking up trillions! of dollars of American debt with their tax cuts. Not one word from them while the Coalition outlined plans to do the same here, foregoing Revenue that could be used to run this country effectively, instead letting them make off like thieves with Consolidated Revenue that they hand out like candy to their crooked mates.
The Ratings Agencies are simply standover merchants in sharp suits that work at the top of modern day tall towers of Babel. They hold their ratings like a Sword of Damocles over the heads of Centre Left governments and the little people, in concert with the 1%, so as to preserve the power and wealth status quo. Going mute when their masters’ political proteges are in power.
We should just ignore them. What can they do? Downgrade our ratings? In a world awash with cheap money? 😆 😆 😆
poroti
Exactly.
The rating agencies are best ignored because it was probably someone trying to meet their kpis.
Mexicanbeemer @ #2047 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 8:33 pm
And they are generally as dumb as a box of hammers but as cunning as foxes. Built up since very young to believe they are gods.
Doesn’t mean they can get away with rape.
Talk of Trump going out with a bang on Inauguration Day while Biden has a subdued Covid safe ceremony. Trump to take a final flight on Air Force One to Florida for a big “We love Trump” rally while Biden may ride into Washington on the same Amtrak train that he used for 30 years as a senator. Trump (in a fit of pique) to time his rally to coincide with Biden’s swearing in, with suggestions of a ‘split screen’ on live TV coverage.
C@tmomma @ #2452 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 8:03 pm
What the stuff about Labor doing an outstanding job and Albo being on fire?
Make up your mind Catmoaner.
Sheesh there’s no pleasing some people.
.
.
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.
.
.None I tells ya$%$##@!!!!$#%$#@#!!@@#$%^&*!!
C@tmomma @ #2467 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 8:59 pm
Catmoaner loves a bit of Mundo.
..
.
.
.
.
SHE LOVES IT I TELLS YA!!@$#$@#!@!!!@#$%^&
GG,
Biting a woman’s labia or clitoris until it bleeds is not a case of ‘defensive driving’ to avoid injury when it comes to aggressive hyper-sexualised footy players. It doesn’t sound like she had a chance to avoid injury like your daughter did when an aggressive driver was coming at her from the other direction. It sounds like a drive-by encounter that was to be fitted in between one function and another. Not one which was ‘consensual’ to the extent that, while the woman may have thought she was agreeing to a sexual encounter, she didn’t believe she was agreeing to personal injury as a result of it. Which kind of sounds like, something else again.
However, no, a conviction hasn’t been recorded yet, so let’s just wave our legal technicalities around like we just don’t care, eh?
Cud Chewer
The stories that were coming out in the months before the GFC hit were truly jaw dropping. It gave me an overwhelming feeling of “How the fcuk can that be legal ?!” . Even if they were legal the immorality and dishonesty alone should have seen them sent to the rubbish tip. But fcuk me dead they were bailed out , rewarded and hey ho the banksters of Wall St and The City were back reeling in obscene bonuses in a year or two. The peasantry sentenced to “austerity” . Poor old Bernie Madoff drew the short straw and got to be the goat tossed into the volcano.
Bye, bye mundo. You have outlived your usefulness to me. Engaging with you is not something I crave.
Btw, may I advise you to take a course in election prediction? You’re off your game lately. Maybe too much time looking at your reflection in the clear Tasmanian waters has caused you to fall flat on your face? Or is that bat’s piss you have fallen into a pool of while admiring yourself? 🙂
C@tmomma @ #2451 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 8:01 pm
I for one find it very difficult to pick the gender of posters…..I thought P1 was a bloke until recently…..I thought KuKu was a child and was pretty sure Catmoaner was some kind of AI running on some loopy algorithm….seriously, does it matter?
BB rocks.
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..
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ROCKS I TELLS YA!!@%$5434324321342452321111111111111111
C@tmomma @ #2478 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 9:27 pm
A bit try hard there Catmoaner….anyway, you’ll be back.
A little bit of Mundo is never enough!
Prime Minister apologises to Kevin Rudd: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/07/pm-apologises-for-erroneously-stating-kevin-rudd-had-left-and-re-entered-australia-during-covid
Steve777says:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 9:51 pm
That Smirk still lives.
Rule 1- stay in the black bit.
Rule 2-Hit nothing.
The rest is detail.
poroti
But they couldn’t see it coming…
Speaking of which.. here’s a personal story.
https://www.maitlandmercury.com.au/story/5003711/history-20th-anniversary-of-beresfields-rail-disaster/
A coal train ploughed into the back of another coal train at Berresfield station. There was a passenger train due at Berresfield station at that moment, but thanks to the train being late, it didn’t get crushed.
I was going to take that train, from Berresfield Station. Fortunately the friend who drove me there was late – as usual.
Ivanka…. Ivanka…
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/ivanka-trump-deposed-in-dc-probe-of-trump-inauguration-.html
Sports Rorts rearing it’s head:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/significant-uncertainty-inquiry-wants-legal-advice-on-sports-rorts-20201207-p56ld8.html
The government agency that oversaw the so-called sports rorts scandal has been told to seek urgent legal advice after an inquiry found there was “significant uncertainty” over the legality of the grants.
Ahh *lawyers*.
For those of you concerned about the fires on Fraser Is, it looks like it’s being lined up for a good drenching: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR082.loop.shtml#skip
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/06/trump-white-house-press-secretary-biden-kayleigh-mcenany
Good news for America.
“If we lose these two Senate seats,” she said, “guess who’s casting the deciding vote in this country for our government? It will be Kamala Harris.”
As far as the rape case goes- none of us was there. A jury couldn’t work out what happened.
We should all just SHUT UP- we don’t have to comment on everything!
Dandy
Did you notice the question I asked earlier today?
Zerlo
I can’t get a reading on whether the Dems can get those Senate seats.
Torchbearer
Exactly.
Cud Chewersays:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 10:58 pm
Georgia has a recount on Jan 5th, this holds the seats required for it.
Its a runoff election.
No, cud. Care to repost?
Cud Chewersays:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 11:00 pm
Georgia senate race has 2 senate seats, Biden led with over 12,000 votes in Georgia.
Georgia runoff senate won’t make much different in terms of votes going to Trump. Trump will need a bloody miracle.
So explain to me why my post was deleted?
Cud Chewer:
Georgia runoff senate race has two seats up for grabs.
Joe Biden has 12,000 votes lead on Donald Trump in Georgia.
He will need a miracle to have those overturned.
Your posts get “deleted”, i.e. go to moderation, when you misspell your email address in the comments form, which you do rather a lot.