The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds 67% rating the federal government’s COVID-19 response as good, unchanged on a fortnight ago, with the poor rating down two to 13% – its strongest net result in this regular series since June. The small sample state breakdowns find the South Australian government’s positive rating down six to 70%, which I believe is the lowest it has yet recorded, although it might not pay to read too much into that given the near double-digit margin of error. The results for the other four mainland state are all up by one point: to 76% for New South Wales, 60% for Victoria, 72% for Queensland and 83% for Western Australia.
Respondents were also asked about their level of interest in various news stories: 69% said they were closely following the COVID-19 outbreak in South Australia, against 31% for not closely; 66% likewise for COVID-19 vaccine trials, and 34% for not closely; 56% closely for Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn his election defeat, with 44% for not closely; and 53% closely for war crimes allegations against Australian soliders, against 47% for not closely. The poll also found 37% felt the government spent too much on foreign aid, down four points since 2017, with spends too little steady on 16% and the right amount up four to 23%. Also featured was a series of detailed questions on climate change and coal-fired power plants, which you can read all about in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1034.
In other news, Antony Green peruses the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ report recommending action to preserve the Northern Territory’s second House of Representatives seat, which otherwise stands to be lost based on the territory’s share of the national population. Significantly, he notes that the proposed removal of an existing tweak to the calculation that was added to help the Northern Territory get over the line back in 2004 now stands to cost the Australian Capital Territory the third seat it gained at the last election – perhaps explaining why the government has been so sanguine about preserving Labor-held seats in the Northern Territory.
The change in 2004 made use of the margin of error the Australian Bureau of Statistics provides for its population estimates for the territories, requiring that the figure at the top end of the range be used in making the determination. Whereas the most recent determination credited the ACT with 2.55 quotas, rounding up to three seats, it would have only have been 2.48 if the ABS’s straightforward estimate had been used. There is no suggestion of changing the existing determination to cost the ACT its third seat at the next election, but a significant growth in population would be needed if the third seat was to be preserved at the next election after.
Antony Green’s submission to the inquiry suggested that, in addition to giving the territories a minimum of two seats, the calculation be made not on the basis of the garden variety arithmetic mean, but on the harmonic mean, which would be less prone to rounding down for the territories and smaller states. This method has the virtue of producing “an allocation of seats with a population per member closer to the national quota than the arithmetic mean”. The committee – apparently including the four Labor and one Greens members as well as the five from the government, since there was no dissenting report – acknowledged the logic of this but cited “problems with the potential for public acceptance”
Mention should also be made of Saturday’s by-election in the regional Queensland seat of Groom, which did nothing to alter its complexion as a safe seat for the Coalition. The LNP candidate, Garth Hamilton, currently has 66.9% of the two-party preferred vote with only a handful of votes outstanding, representing a 3.6% swing to Labor Œ more or less the same size of the swing in the Longman by-election that did for Malcolm Turnbull in 2018, though on that occasion his critics could point to a 9.4% drop in the LNP vote as One Nation surged to 15.9%. The One Nation factor went untested on this occasion, since the party did not field a candidate, although the party’s performance in the recent state election suggested they would only have done a limited amount of damage.
Of perhaps more note than the result is the pattern of turnout in the second by-election held during COVID-19 (the first being in Eden-Monaro only July 4): election day turnout was down 21.3%, from 53,943 to 42,490; pre-poll voting centres were up 0.8% from 25,169 to 25,380; and there have so far been 11,966 postal votes counted, compared with 14,108 at the 2019 election. Voter fraud fans may care to note that the LNP did better on election day votes (a 2.7% swing to Labor) than pre-poll votes (a 4.0% swing) and, especially, postal votes (a 7.3% swing).
Really, some posters here are pathetic.
Someone says that someone told them that something happened – no context provided – and it’s greeted with a chorus of “Oh, this means Labor’s stuffed…”
Greensborough Growler
Yeah fuck democratically elected politicians and the people whose votes they represent because they don’t have the Growler Tick of Approval.
Quoll says:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 5:08 pm
….the five crossbenchers and the Greens will have to share a limited number of motions between them.
The No Windmills Party and ON will have to share. Sounds reasonable to me. Same/same. They waste precious time. They can do it together.
poroti,
He’s probably more legally aware than a silly Greens supporter only interested in throwing rhetorical bombs.
poroti,
What are you whinging about. You’re a self declared Liberal preferencer.
This is what you support!
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/12/tasmania-secrecy-concerns-or-just.html
Tasmania: Secrecy Concerns Or Just Secretive Polling?
My review of recent EMRS and uComms state polling in Tasmania
Cross-poll aggregate Liberals 14 Labor 8 Greens 3
a r @ #2362 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 3:55 pm
You are simply showing that you have no idea of Jennifer Rubin’s history. She has, over the years, been subject to vigorous opposition and criticism from WAPO readership for her far-out Zionist views (supporting mob killing of a Hamas member), and support for ‘smallest possible government’, the ‘war on drugs’ and instant gaol for ‘felons’. Her conversion to anti Trumpism came late, and reluctantly.
Thursday this week is
I’m expecting the Federal Government to introduce a Bill to ban Unions and make Parliamentary bonking compulsory.
Goodnight all. 📺 💤
That faux pas by Morrison on Rudd is pretty bad for a PM.
Telling falsehoods about a prior PM in Parliament that are batted off so easily is a sign of fly by voicing imho.
The question is whether this was official advice or Morrison winging it.
Rudd is totally within his rights to call out Morrison’s misrepresentations.
Morrison might be thinking that Rudd is up for a comeback!
Quoll says:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 5:08 pm
…
That gives them a majority. And means the five crossbenchers and the Greens will have to share a limited number of motions between them. That cuts down the time the senate will spend on motions, but also means that a lot of issues won’t get airtime.
Or to put it another way, there is a limited to the number of go nowhere motions to be put.
Having the Greens put a motion forward for an environmental committee with one Labor member and 5 cross benches appointed by the government could have been the straw that broke the camels back.
Stupidity can have consequences.
Yabba @ #2407 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 4:51 pm
Or that I have some idea of Wapo’s overall bias.
But yes, also that. Never claimed to follow individual columnists.
Reducing the number of Motions from the Cross Benches certainly won’t alter their effectiveness and achievements.
Conservatives are different in America because there it actually mean something but here it is simply about opposing the left and agreeing with the latest cultural war meme.
He has “doughy” physique as well.
PollBludger has 72 cookies tracking us! More than just about any other site! 😯
Supported an illegal and unnecessary war that killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Authored the Crime Bill that massively expanded the use of incarceration for non-violent drug offences, having a hugely disproportionate impact on African-American men.
Authored the Bankruptcy Bill that made it easier for financial firms to engage in predatory practices.
Frequently expressed support for cutting funding to Medicare and Social Security.
Is he going to have an FDR-like transformation while in office? Unlikely.
Let’s pray that this person whose political career has been repulsive up to this point will realize that he has more to gain by serving the public than by serving corporate donors. He’s 78, his political career is close to being over, which means he doesn’t really have to suck up to donors any more. If he wants to be remembered as a good president – and all presidents do – he will need to make some policy moves that are completely at odds with what he has done so far.
Nicky,
You are the more likely individual to prey upon the poor and dispossessed as you develop your clientele of dependency and your faux solutions for nothing but continuation of entrenched poverty and despair.
You really should be ashamed of yourself.
Cat,
Someone is setting a trap for the Cookie Monster.
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 6:49 pm
Nicky,
You are the more likely individual to prey upon the poor and dispossessed as you develop your clientele of dependency and your faux solutions for nothing but continuation of entrenched poverty and despair.
You really should be ashamed of yourself.
_____________________________
Said the purveyor of “loans” to the financially challenged. Great example of chutzpah!
Greensborough Growler @ #2008 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 6:51 pm
He IS the Cookie Monster! 😀
c@t, Hope you’ve resolved your conflict with bushfire bill!
When you have no standards such as yourself – you unfortunately get blowback from those beyond the pale like BB, that you indulge by defending their behaviour.
Lars,
All my loans pass muster comrade. I’m audited to within an inch of my life. So, your tawdry accusations mean bugger all.
I’m sure your dance card is more empty than ever now your beloved Donald is history and you can’t entertain your beau with your broad understanding of US politics.
So, fuck right off you Trump supporting non-entity.
Seriously?
No need for lawyers and million dollar trials.
If you don’t want to be raped by a footy star, or have things taken far further than you thought they would be…
● Don’t go on star-fucking expeditions,
● Don’t get drunk with them at night clubs,
● Don’t go back to their flat with their mates for group sex,
● Don’t signal “All is well” by returning to the club with your rapist afterwards.
It ain’t rocket science.
What did she expect? Tea and scones? A Bible reading? A discussion on Blind Side tactics?
At some stage in their lives young 19 year-olds have to grow up. Some do it without lasting harm. Some aren’t so lucky.
The Haynes trial resulted in a hung jury. This means he was not convicted, and must still be assumed to be innocent. Rather than an injustice done, this seems like justice writ large.
Got a little more respect for Tim Smith.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/you-should-have-been-expelled-debate-within-libs-erupts-on-gay-conversion-20201207-p56lbv.html
The dinosaur emerges!
NSW has suffered its first credit rating downgrade in more than 31 years after it was stripped of its AAA standing over concerns about the size of the state’s debt and borrowing plans.
S&P Global on Monday reduced NSW’s rating by one notch to AA+, ending the state’s 17-year run with a AAA rating amid fears of a “rising debt burden”.
NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet says the state has seen green shoots of recovery despite a credit rating downgrade.
The state’s delayed pandemic budget, released last month, revealed a record deficit of $16 billion with debt to soar to $104 billion in four years.
NSW was last hit with a ratings downgrade in 1989 when it dropped from AA+ to AA. It has slowly risen since, and has boasted a AAA rating since February 2003.
S&P said NSW was “quick to control the spread of coronavirus, averting what could have been a deeper recession”, leaving it well-placed to return to an operating surplus in the medium term.
However, the credit ratings agency warned record levels of infrastructure construction in the eastern states left NSW at risk of “cost over-runs, skilled labor shortages and project delays.
Bushfire Bill says:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 7:00 pm
__________________________
How surprising from BB – a variant of an old theme “she asked for it”.
If you weren’t so nasty maybe c@t would pop up to defend you now?
Back in the ‘good old days’ any drop in credit rating would have seen hordes of Libs and more than a few journos sounding like professional mourners/wailers at a funeral. Well if there was a Labor gov.
NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet says the state has seen green shoots of recovery despite a credit rating downgrade.
The Coalition are always ever ready with the ‘Yes, but…’ excuse.
poroti,
But! But! ‘Green shoots’ of recovery. I think they are ‘Old Chestnut’ shoots. 😆
Bugger, they are letting the barbarians back in. 😉
.
After eight months of separation, Western Australia will reopen its borders to New South Wales and Victoria from midnight.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/dec/07/australian-politics-live-coalition-question-time-parliament-victoria-nsw-ease-coronavirus-restrictions
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/12/02/essential-research-territory-seat-entitlements-groom-wash-up/comment-page-49/#comment-3523130
… never thought much of KRudd7x7, …, though Tonicchio, Fizza, $houty were/ are far worse!
Holden Hillbily,
As noted earlier in the thread, Victoria’s credit rating was also downgraded at the same time.
It’s a Covid thing and all Government’s are doing the right thing by investing in infrastructure programmes and ensuring people are employed and families are protected.
With interest rates as low as they will probably ever be, now is the time for Governments to invest in their people and their State.
C’mon Lars, drunken League stars on a three-day bender aren’t exactly known for their manners.
At some stage young women and young men have to realise what they are getting themselves into.
Whether it’s going out with drunken footy narcissists, joining ISIS as a fighter but expecting everyone to abide by the Geneva Convention, swallowing a handful of ekky tabs at a dance party to avoid police drug patrols, using heroin and kidding yourself you won’t get addicted… whatever the chance you take, you can’t expect everything to go as planned and set out in the rule book every time.
frednk,
Tim Smith was overlooked for a Shadow Cabinet position (after all that publicity)
He seems to have a media soapbox but not much support within the Libefal Party.
Wow I’ve seen some disgusting rubbish here but that little spray was by far the worst.
poroti @ #2431 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 4:14 pm
A sad day for WA, but it was going to be forced upon us eventually.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/04/barack-obama-lesson-british-left-words-matter-defund-the-police-us
Hope progressives are paying attention?
Quoll @ #2392 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 5:18 pm
Now look Quoll just stop it now!
I won’t stand for it.
I won’t I tells ya!
Labor is doing an outstanding job.
Albo is on fire!!!
.
.
.
.
.
ON FIRE I TELLS YA%%@!!!!@%$#%^)_)*&*^$%%$#$@!!!!!
Tell me about it. I just came back and saw it. And the further digging in is just despicable.
This is disgusting. I don’t care who you are or how you vote, victim-blaming is disgusting. Call me a woke PC warrior or whatever, I don’t care. The person with the agency is the rapist, not the woman who “should’ve just known what they’re like”
Well, it seems that, so far, the jury is looking at things in the same way I am. So at least I have the law on my side.
Of course there may be a new trial, so we must reserve final opinions until then.
But to automatically condemn a supportive opinion on the hung jury as “disgusting rubbish” shows just how screwed up some people’s heads have become.
Ask just about any adult (who isn’t so bound up in political correctness they’ve forgotten what the Real World, or their own youthful disasters looked like), especially adult women, what’s likely to happen when you mix booze binges, camp followers, group sex and over-libido’ed League stars, and the answer doesn’t come out “Sunday School”.
The jury seems to have agreed.
The corrupt LibLab fossil fuel cartel at work.
In fact, I think that’s my cue to take a break from this place. There’s too much toxicity here and I am finding myself sinking to its level. I’ll be back at the next election I give a shit about. Have a good one.
Note: this is not a reflection on William Bowe’s or Adrian Beaumont’s main posts – which are top notch (and I will keep my donations going.)
Rudy Giuliani, who just tested positive for COVID-19, asked a witness at a committee hearing to take off her face masks just days ago, claiming he couldn’t hear her speak. (Nobody else had any issues hearing the witness except for Giuliani.)
https://twitter.com/chrisriotta/status/1335686745917108232?s=20
Bushfire Bill @ #2424 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 7:00 pm
Can’t walk past this comment.
You are wrong.
Victim blaming is wrong.
You probably need some sort of counselling with that sort of mindset I’d suggest.
I disagree entirely with BB but I expect the slut shaming of the victims done by the defence in both cases contributed to the juries’ difficulty in reaching a decision.
Is it time to forget about judgement by peers?
OC – on another note – your thoughts on the Putin has Parkinson’s story?
Weakness perceived or real is a very undesirable trait for a Russian dictator/tsar ?
Lars,
Putin will stay till he’s gone and not before.
I hope that adds substance to your meaningless interlude.
Sceptic @ #2034 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 7:44 pm
He’s evil.
Rational Leftist @ #2033 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 7:39 pm
I can understand why. That doesn’t mean I like it.