Essential Research, territory seat entitlements, Groom wash-up

The federal government continues to be rated highly for its COVID-19 response, as a plan to save the Northern Territory’s second seat proves to have a sting in the tail for the ACT.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds 67% rating the federal government’s COVID-19 response as good, unchanged on a fortnight ago, with the poor rating down two to 13% – its strongest net result in this regular series since June. The small sample state breakdowns find the South Australian government’s positive rating down six to 70%, which I believe is the lowest it has yet recorded, although it might not pay to read too much into that given the near double-digit margin of error. The results for the other four mainland state are all up by one point: to 76% for New South Wales, 60% for Victoria, 72% for Queensland and 83% for Western Australia.

Respondents were also asked about their level of interest in various news stories: 69% said they were closely following the COVID-19 outbreak in South Australia, against 31% for not closely; 66% likewise for COVID-19 vaccine trials, and 34% for not closely; 56% closely for Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn his election defeat, with 44% for not closely; and 53% closely for war crimes allegations against Australian soliders, against 47% for not closely. The poll also found 37% felt the government spent too much on foreign aid, down four points since 2017, with spends too little steady on 16% and the right amount up four to 23%. Also featured was a series of detailed questions on climate change and coal-fired power plants, which you can read all about in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

In other news, Antony Green peruses the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ report recommending action to preserve the Northern Territory’s second House of Representatives seat, which otherwise stands to be lost based on the territory’s share of the national population. Significantly, he notes that the proposed removal of an existing tweak to the calculation that was added to help the Northern Territory get over the line back in 2004 now stands to cost the Australian Capital Territory the third seat it gained at the last election – perhaps explaining why the government has been so sanguine about preserving Labor-held seats in the Northern Territory.

The change in 2004 made use of the margin of error the Australian Bureau of Statistics provides for its population estimates for the territories, requiring that the figure at the top end of the range be used in making the determination. Whereas the most recent determination credited the ACT with 2.55 quotas, rounding up to three seats, it would have only have been 2.48 if the ABS’s straightforward estimate had been used. There is no suggestion of changing the existing determination to cost the ACT its third seat at the next election, but a significant growth in population would be needed if the third seat was to be preserved at the next election after.

Antony Green’s submission to the inquiry suggested that, in addition to giving the territories a minimum of two seats, the calculation be made not on the basis of the garden variety arithmetic mean, but on the harmonic mean, which would be less prone to rounding down for the territories and smaller states. This method has the virtue of producing “an allocation of seats with a population per member closer to the national quota than the arithmetic mean”. The committee – apparently including the four Labor and one Greens members as well as the five from the government, since there was no dissenting report – acknowledged the logic of this but cited “problems with the potential for public acceptance”

Mention should also be made of Saturday’s by-election in the regional Queensland seat of Groom, which did nothing to alter its complexion as a safe seat for the Coalition. The LNP candidate, Garth Hamilton, currently has 66.9% of the two-party preferred vote with only a handful of votes outstanding, representing a 3.6% swing to Labor Œ more or less the same size of the swing in the Longman by-election that did for Malcolm Turnbull in 2018, though on that occasion his critics could point to a 9.4% drop in the LNP vote as One Nation surged to 15.9%. The One Nation factor went untested on this occasion, since the party did not field a candidate, although the party’s performance in the recent state election suggested they would only have done a limited amount of damage.

Of perhaps more note than the result is the pattern of turnout in the second by-election held during COVID-19 (the first being in Eden-Monaro only July 4): election day turnout was down 21.3%, from 53,943 to 42,490; pre-poll voting centres were up 0.8% from 25,169 to 25,380; and there have so far been 11,966 postal votes counted, compared with 14,108 at the 2019 election. Voter fraud fans may care to note that the LNP did better on election day votes (a 2.7% swing to Labor) than pre-poll votes (a 4.0% swing) and, especially, postal votes (a 7.3% swing).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,520 comments on “Essential Research, territory seat entitlements, Groom wash-up”

Comments Page 4 of 51
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  7. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 12:02 pm
    Briefly

    Rhetoric of brand squatting won’t cut it with Glasgow.

    I have no idea what you mean. This is not an unusual state of play.

  10. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 12:11 pm

    The Gs obviously have the ability to unify the Australian electorate and Parliaments. They will come together to spurn the No Windmills Party…who basically make us all feel like throwing up.

  11. We are not doomed. The states even the LNP ones have been doing sensible energy policy initiatives.

    The only blockage is the LNP party room and Labor party enablers. Falsely arguing we must have coal mining.

    Labor has made that decision. 2050 targets means our fossil fuel export industry are stranded assets.

  13. poroti @ #142 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 11:43 am

    C@tmomma
    Evangelicals, Scrott’s lot, believe End Times are nigh. Many think it an excellent idea to speed up its coming.Things like moving the embassy to Jerusalem went down a treat. Who cares what Trump is like, the MAIN game is seeing the prophesies fulfilled so they can all be ‘raptured’ off into the wild blue yonder.

    They’re already off the planet. So I suppose it’s not that much further to go.

  15. Eat Just Inc., a maker of meat and egg substitutes, has been approved to sell its laboratory-created chicken in Singapore, which becomes the first government to allow the sale of cultured meat.

    A game changer. I cant wait. I just hope the lobbyists and covert interests of the LNP dont try to outlaw it.

    I will still eat a steak. I will still eat roo and lamb shanks. They will be special occasions I look forward to and will savour the flavour even more.

    So when do we start revegetating and rehabilitating all the cleared and degraded stock land?

  16. He added that the chicken’s flavor and taste are the same as the real thing.

    As the chicken in chicken bites is virtually tasteless, that sounds right. Minced cardboard would do as well.

  17. I don’t know how BK does it day in day out.

    I did a small session on political blogs, links seem to show up at election time so getting feel for what they do at other times was interesting. Got bored with that, like the stuff firefox posts. same shit different day.

    Did a session of Labor party press releases in the hope Firefox would get the hint, he didn’t.

    If your interested, here is the link:
    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/

    Could not find an equivalent for federal Labor.

  19. One day, in the flooding, catastrophic post-climate apocalypse world of 2100, our surviving descendants are going to learn we could have prevented it all with one quick display of virtue that was going to get so many likes on Twitter that day but we chose not to. And the world paid for it.

  20. I don’t get it. The Greens are all fluffed up about their motion on climate crisis being voted down in the Senate when Labor were trying to get up a debate in the HoR. And they’re saying Labor don’t care.

  21. Rational Leftist @ #169 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 11:51 am

    One day, in the flooding, catastrophic post-climate apocalypse world of 2100, our surviving descendants are going to learn we could have prevented it all with one quick display of virtue that was going to get so many likes on Twitter that day but we chose not to. And the world paid for it.

    You wont have to wait that long.

  23. ‘If Labor now proposes something similar, they’ve given the Greens the perfect excuse for not voting for Labor’s proposition.’

    What a weird attitude.

  25. lizzie
    This from Amy illustrates Labor’s ‘brave’ stance on having a debate on the issue.

    Labor supported it in the house (and was lost on the numbers, because the government has control of that chamber)

    .

    and didn’t support it in the Senate, where with the crossbenchers Labor and the Greens can defeat the government on the numbers)

  32. DP

    And how can anyone who says they’re Green say they won’t support a similar motion in the future?

    Apparently being spiteful trumps the future of climate change – and if so, your own credentials are in doubt.

  35. Don’t get me wrong, I am disappointed Labor killed it in the Senate and hope they change their mind and pass it (even if it is just a gesture) but anybody’d think they just voted to stop an ETS or something, judging by the wailing.

  37. As said by another bludger. Not surprised in the least.

    Eric Garland
    @ericgarland
    ·
    32m
    *dark laughter reverberates around universe*
    Quote Tweet
    Glenn Kirschner
    @glennkirschner2
    · 1h
    Barr’s DOJ filed a motion demanding an “immediate” dismissal of Flynn’s case based on Trump’s (likely corrupt) pardon. Chief Judge Howell promptly releases legal documents (OVER BARR’S OBJECTION) disclosing a long-term bribery-for-pardon investigation. Coincidence?#JusticeMatters
    Eric Garland Retweeted
    Glenn Kirschner
    @glennkirschner2
    ·
    1h
    I’m heartened to see that the FBI has been investigating bribery-for-presidential-pardon schemes/crimes for many months now. And I’m glad Chief Judge Beryl Howell decided to allow the public to see the (heavily redacted) documents even though Barr’s DOJ objected to their release.

  42. Sometimes it would help if Labor tweeted an explanation for their votes.

    That is true, as this doesn’t look that good – in particular, in the wake of them appearing to “give-in” to fossil fuel interests.

    (And if it is because they’re trying to squirm into a pro-fossil fuel anti-climate change action position for political expediency, they deserve the heat they get.)

  43. @denniallen
    ·
    4m
    Not surprised to see @fitzhunter has a bevy of RWNJs following and supporting him on his FB page. Blocked 3 of them. This is not what one expects of an @AustralianLabor MP.
    @AlboMP
    @billshortenmp
    #auspol

  44. poroti

    Don’t know, but often it depends on how the motion is framed. I’ve voted down motions which I agreed with in the main because there was some kind of condition attached which was unacceptable and the mover refused to accept amendments. It’s a common tactic.

    I’m not saying it’s so in this case.

  45. Greg Jericho@GrogsGamut
    ·
    15m
    Frydenburg: “Technically, Australia’s recession may be over”

    *&^%$#@!!!!!!

    Greg Jericho@GrogsGamut
    ·
    11m
    (there is not such thing as a “technical” recession)

  46. I must say that Firefox/Allizom has the typical mindset of a Greens zealot. Cutting their nose off despite their face. Spamming the blog with nothing but Greens’ agit prop only turns more people off than it does to bring them to their cause.

    Not that rabid zealots like Firefox care because they are on a mission, a mission from their god, Gaia let us say, to spread the word to the unbelievers, and their minds are closed to entreaties from sane and rational people.

    That’s why I am not angry at Firefox/Azillom, I just feel pity for him that he thinks what he is doing is in some way smart, akin to trolling us with his constant and consistent spewing of posts on the blog on a daily basis.

    No doubt he also feels as if he is engaged in some sort of vendetta, as some sort of avenging angel for the fact that Pegasus was, probably in his way of thinking about things, ‘driven from the blog’.

    That also makes his behaviour puerile in the extreme, and probably the basis for his vomiting Green posts all over the blog endlessly. What he fails to admit is that Pegasus drove herself away from the blog of her own volition as people were similarly fed up with her using the blog purely as a Greens bulletin board and publicity tool, refusing to engage in any debate about Greens policy or positions, and when challenged, resorting to childish vitriol and smarmy snarking. Just like Firefox/Allizom, her little avenging angel.

    Neither of them are capable of actually engaging in a debate, such as the one the rest of us had yesterday about China. In fact, hilariously, no Australian political party could be closer to the behaviour that the Chinese are engaging in than The Greens. They would just love it if we had a Totalitarian Greens State where what they said, goes. And no debate could be entered into. It’s just so completely tawdry and the reason that The Greens are not on the side of what is right but of what is wrong with the world and Populist politics from the Right and the Left.

    And why I am proud to stand in the Sensible Centre. No matter what silly names I may be called or silly games these people play. I have my big boy pants on and they are still running around getting their Kimbies in a twist about every little perceived slight that they believe the major parties are making/have made, without acknowledging that that is actually how politics is done.

    And until such time as they do so then they will always remain at, what is it, 9% and counting down.

  47. C@tmomma @ #168 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 12:20 pm

    KayJay @ #153 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 12:04 pm

    C@tmomma

    Looks like Brave is a nogo for editing with C+

    I don’t have that. On Chrome or Brave. I checked More Tools, C+ is version 8.12.0

    I’m now using “Brave”..

    C+ is in the extensions folder and needs to look like this.

    Clicking details should show this…

    Returning to Poll Bludger page….on the far right the C+ Icon should show (you may need to pin it by clicking on the “Extensions” icon.

    You can then left click on the red C+ icon which will then show

    You can then click on Save and refresh the Poll Bludger page and C+ should then be in full working order including “Edit”.

  48. As a sidebar to the Firefox issue, at least he/she is able to post stuff from Twitter in a readable format.

    I get a headache trying to make sense of the posts that include all the Twitter fluff, timestamps and repetition. A bit of editing would be greatly appreciated.

  49. DP

    I don’t disagree with you. I disagree with the spiteful attitude that if Labor does support something similar in the future, the Greens won’t support it.

    Years ago, a group of Greens said something to me along the lines of “Well, when things really go to sh*t, we’ll be there to say we told you so.”

    It still seems an incredibly immature approach to take to the End of Life As We Know It.

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