Essential Research, territory seat entitlements, Groom wash-up

The federal government continues to be rated highly for its COVID-19 response, as a plan to save the Northern Territory’s second seat proves to have a sting in the tail for the ACT.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds 67% rating the federal government’s COVID-19 response as good, unchanged on a fortnight ago, with the poor rating down two to 13% – its strongest net result in this regular series since June. The small sample state breakdowns find the South Australian government’s positive rating down six to 70%, which I believe is the lowest it has yet recorded, although it might not pay to read too much into that given the near double-digit margin of error. The results for the other four mainland state are all up by one point: to 76% for New South Wales, 60% for Victoria, 72% for Queensland and 83% for Western Australia.

Respondents were also asked about their level of interest in various news stories: 69% said they were closely following the COVID-19 outbreak in South Australia, against 31% for not closely; 66% likewise for COVID-19 vaccine trials, and 34% for not closely; 56% closely for Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn his election defeat, with 44% for not closely; and 53% closely for war crimes allegations against Australian soliders, against 47% for not closely. The poll also found 37% felt the government spent too much on foreign aid, down four points since 2017, with spends too little steady on 16% and the right amount up four to 23%. Also featured was a series of detailed questions on climate change and coal-fired power plants, which you can read all about in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

In other news, Antony Green peruses the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ report recommending action to preserve the Northern Territory’s second House of Representatives seat, which otherwise stands to be lost based on the territory’s share of the national population. Significantly, he notes that the proposed removal of an existing tweak to the calculation that was added to help the Northern Territory get over the line back in 2004 now stands to cost the Australian Capital Territory the third seat it gained at the last election – perhaps explaining why the government has been so sanguine about preserving Labor-held seats in the Northern Territory.

The change in 2004 made use of the margin of error the Australian Bureau of Statistics provides for its population estimates for the territories, requiring that the figure at the top end of the range be used in making the determination. Whereas the most recent determination credited the ACT with 2.55 quotas, rounding up to three seats, it would have only have been 2.48 if the ABS’s straightforward estimate had been used. There is no suggestion of changing the existing determination to cost the ACT its third seat at the next election, but a significant growth in population would be needed if the third seat was to be preserved at the next election after.

Antony Green’s submission to the inquiry suggested that, in addition to giving the territories a minimum of two seats, the calculation be made not on the basis of the garden variety arithmetic mean, but on the harmonic mean, which would be less prone to rounding down for the territories and smaller states. This method has the virtue of producing “an allocation of seats with a population per member closer to the national quota than the arithmetic mean”. The committee – apparently including the four Labor and one Greens members as well as the five from the government, since there was no dissenting report – acknowledged the logic of this but cited “problems with the potential for public acceptance”

Mention should also be made of Saturday’s by-election in the regional Queensland seat of Groom, which did nothing to alter its complexion as a safe seat for the Coalition. The LNP candidate, Garth Hamilton, currently has 66.9% of the two-party preferred vote with only a handful of votes outstanding, representing a 3.6% swing to Labor Œ more or less the same size of the swing in the Longman by-election that did for Malcolm Turnbull in 2018, though on that occasion his critics could point to a 9.4% drop in the LNP vote as One Nation surged to 15.9%. The One Nation factor went untested on this occasion, since the party did not field a candidate, although the party’s performance in the recent state election suggested they would only have done a limited amount of damage.

Of perhaps more note than the result is the pattern of turnout in the second by-election held during COVID-19 (the first being in Eden-Monaro only July 4): election day turnout was down 21.3%, from 53,943 to 42,490; pre-poll voting centres were up 0.8% from 25,169 to 25,380; and there have so far been 11,966 postal votes counted, compared with 14,108 at the 2019 election. Voter fraud fans may care to note that the LNP did better on election day votes (a 2.7% swing to Labor) than pre-poll votes (a 4.0% swing) and, especially, postal votes (a 7.3% swing).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,520 comments on “Essential Research, territory seat entitlements, Groom wash-up”

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  1. Andrew_Earlwood. Well said.

    The problem with Firefox and his sock puppet (‘Mozilla’ backwards. Clever.) Isn’t that he’s a Green or disagreeing with others here (although his “Pepe Silvia!” rabbitholes can be obnoxious sometimes.) It’s just the sheer volume of what is just gushing screenshots of MPs he likes is becoming a bit too much. Sometimes it literally causes the load time of this page to lag substantially.

    Although, shame on me, I shouldn’t really react or engage. It’s clear Firefox is not well and is a bit lonely, and craves whatever attention he can get. Discussing him is just giving him what he wants. So this is the last time I will acknowledge his existence, regardless of what he says on here or any attempts to prod me.

  2. Rational Leftist @ #182 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 10:23 am

    Andrew_Earlwood. Well said.

    The problem with Firefox and his sock puppet (‘Mozilla’ backwards. Clever.) Isn’t that he’s a Green or disagreeing with others here (although his “Pepe Silvia!” rabbitholes can be obnoxious sometimes.) It’s just the sheer volume of what is just gushing screenshots of MPs he likes is becoming a bit too much. Sometimes it literally causes the load time of this page to lag substantially.

    Although, shame on me, I shouldn’t really react or engage. It’s clear Firefox is not well and is a bit lonely, and craves whatever attention he can get. Discussing him is just giving him what he wants. So this is the last time I will acknowledge his existence, regardless of what he says on here or any attempts to prod me.

    Just block the sick puppy and you won’t have to go through any of the angst.

  3. DOJ investigating funneling of money to the White House — for a pardon: report

    On Tuesday, CNN reported that the Justice Department is investigating a potential transfer of money to the White House in exchange for a pardon from outgoing President Donald Trump.

    BREAKING from CNN:
    “The Justice Department is investigating a potential crime related to funneling money to the White House in exchange for a presidential pardon, according to a court record unsealed on Tuesday by the chief judge of the DC District Court.”

    — John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) December 1, 2020

    NEW: Unsealed court document in DC reveals DOJ investigating an alleged “secret lobbying scheme” and a bribery conspiracy that offered “a substantial political contribution in exchange for a presidential pardon or reprieve of sentence.” @kpolantz

    — Shimon Prokupecz (@ShimonPro) December 1, 2020

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/12/doj-investigating-funneling-of-money-to-the-white-house-for-a-pardon-report/

  5. Isn’t Scotty getting enough pics from his tame photographer?

    Charles Harvey@CJHarvey56
    4m
    Scotty loves selfies. Looks at the result and says to himself “Australia, how lucky are you to have me? You too Jen.”

  6. Ged Kearney
    @gedkearney
    ·
    1m
    Happening right now: Labor supporting the suspension of standing orders so the parliament can debate the need to declare a climate emergency. Let’s see if Libs support #auspol

  8. Andrew_Earlwood
    “I want to be clear – I do not have a problem with some material – whether it be social media or long form opinion pieces from any political party or politician being posted or linked to on this blog, but Firefox is attempting to turn the blog into the daily Greens bulletin board”

    Yes, not only is this content painfully boring, but it’s crossed the line into blatant political advertising.

  10. I have seen many posts of Labor press releases and Labor advertising on this blog.

    I have posted some of this myself.

    You lot are going to have to come up with a more credible way to bully someone off the blog.

  11. Sabra Lane@SabraLane
    ·
    1h
    Join me at 12.30pm… it’s my last @PressClubAust as President. Our guest is @sallymcmanus. Tune in 12.30pm

    McManus has a tough job against our current gov but she seems ready to take them on.

  16. The Australian’s questions:

    Did Four Corners use the services of private investigators for its “Inside the Canberra Bubble” story on November 9?
    Was any surveillance via an investigator or freelance cameraman conducted on Christian Porter, Alan Tudge or Canberra bars?
    If so, who paid for these activities?
    When did Four Corners commence work on this story?
    What is the Four Corners’ policy on the use of surveillance techniques and private investigators?

    The ABC’s answers:

    No
    No
    n/a
    Mid 2020
    We do not use private investigators

    https://about.abc.net.au/correcting-the-record/did-the-abc-have-ministers-tailed-no-it-didnt/

  18. Lizzie

    Are you sure?

    It certainly looks that way to me.
    The usual excuses come out.

    “The poster is an attention seeker being alone.”

    The most anyone can claim is they might have to block as they don’t like the content.

    The exception being true sock puppetry. That’s something William will act on.

    I pointed out in my post you replied to how I have posted Labor press releases and Labor advertising and not had a complaint.

    For moderators rules have to be applied equally*

    The complainants at the best are being very sloppy in communicating what they are complaining about

    Edit: As humanly possible. As William seems to do.

  19. Sad to read Mungo’s last post.
    he won’t live to see Morrison’s political demise….whenever that comes….most here won’t I suppose…still, he’ll be able to tell Bob Ellis how things turned out for Monkey…..

  20. This is indeed funny. It’s our Sharri!

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    11m
    I’ve just discovered . . . . ahahahaha Face with tears of joy . . .

    *wheeze*

    (no, no – I’ve got this)

    I’ve just discovered that, that . . . Face with tears of joyhehehee . . .

    (oh god my aching sides)

    *deep breath* (ok Ronni you can do this)

    . . . that Sharri Markson calls herself the “Investigations Editor”

    Rolling on the floor laughing

    …

    Sally Neighbour
    @neighbour_s
    · 1h
    This story is arrant, scurrilous nonsense. Here are my answers to ⁦@SharriMarkson⁩’s questions, which she avoided reporting in full:
    Q:Did 4Corners use the services of private investigators for its Inside the Canberra Bubble story on Nov9?
    A:No… etc.

  23. Hartcher provided the LOLs yesterday as he explained how “desperate” and “panicked” China is ,Australia sitting pretty. Hugh White in the NYT provides a more sober opinion. I think I know which of the two would have the more informed opinion !
    .
    .

    Whether Mr. Morrison gets any aid from the United States or elsewhere, Mr. White added, the episode has already made Australia and Mr. Morrison “look rattled and weak.”

    That makes China look more powerful and intimidating.

    “The folks in Beijing do not want us to like them,” Mr. White said. “They want us to understand their power and their willingness to use it. Our problem is that we are being rather slow to realize that their power is real.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/01/world/australia/china-australia-morrison-tweet.html

  24. Inside the Canberra Bubble story.

    How about sacking the ministers who did the wrong thing rather than the punish the news outlet that published the details of their wrongdoings???

  27. mundo @ #119 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 10:57 am

    Sad to read Mungo’s last post.
    he won’t live to see Morrison’s political demise….whenever that comes….most here won’t I suppose…still, he’ll be able to tell Bob Ellis how things turned out for Monkey…..

    yes, thanks to Bert

    Too right I’ll see Morrison’s demise. His numbers are high because of artifice, not substance, and that’s never sustainable.

    I’m a bit sad about Mungo, but he doesn’t seem to be, so neither should I. But just say Thanks.

    And you did say “last post”, which brought this to mind, if a bit prematurely

    https://youtu.be/fJ9e78gG6q0

  33. Poroti

    Where China might get Australia not to be backed by our multilateral partners and exposed is with Climate Change policy.

    That’s where the US is likely to make common cause with the EU and China on trade tariffs and restrictions.

  37. Julian Andrew@JulianAndrew63

    7:30 report last night was saying NSW has a fire bomber and two smaller planes which cost a total of $26 million.

    Morrison spent $250 million last year making the PM’s jet more luxurious. So that’s about 10 bombers and 20 smaller planes.

    Morrison doesn’t give a flying f*ck

  38. lizzie @ #125 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 11:13 am

    The Age
    @theage
    Victoria is trialling a new wholesale market to allow households and businesses to buy and sell the electricity from their rooftop solar, batteries, electric cars and small appliances. https://theage.com.au/politics/feder

    Great! I plan to have some of that stuff excess to requirements by next year! Bring it on!
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/victorian-households-to-become-national-energy-grid-guinea-pigs-20201201-p56jle.html

  40. To change the discussion on energy we must treat climate as the emergency it is.

    Look at what action people took for the pandemic.
    We have been living in a Trump Land denial including making wearing masks political.

    If we don’t get the carbon price back so the market sets reducing the emissions the best suggestion I have heard is take a reserve bank approach to emissions.

    Let an independent body deal with setting those reductions.
    This would like the economic debate take the politics out of some commonly accepted policy by the majority.

    For the Andrew Earlwood’s Doyley’s FredNK etc.
    treating the climate heating as the emergency it is means putting the economy second. Including overnight shutting down of jobs if necessary.

    The luxury is that we don’t have to order people into social distancing restrictions decimating billions and sending workers directly onto social security benefits.
    With the climate we can have a Just Transition plan.

  41. Eat Just Inc., a maker of meat and egg substitutes, has been approved to sell its laboratory-created chicken in Singapore, which becomes the first government to allow the sale of cultured meat.

    The product, created from animal cells without the slaughter of any chickens, will debut in Singapore under the GOOD Meat brand as a chicken bite with breading and seasoning in a single restaurant. Eat Just is initially working with local manufacturer the Food Innovation and Resource Centre to make the cultured chicken. Additionally, the company is buying more equipment to expand sales to other restaurants — and eventually grocery stores.

    “We want Singapore to be the focus of our manufacturing globally,” Chief Executive Officer Josh Tetrick said in an interview. “They’re just really forward thinking in building an enabling environment for this kind of work.”

    He added that the chicken’s flavor and taste are the same as the real thing.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-02/singapore-becomes-first-country-to-approve-lab-created-meat

  42. C@tmomma
    Evangelicals, Scrott’s lot, believe End Times are nigh. Many think it an excellent idea to speed up its coming.Things like moving the embassy to Jerusalem went down a treat. Who cares what Trump is like, the MAIN game is seeing the prophesies fulfilled so they can all be ‘raptured’ off into the wild blue yonder.

  43. The Australian economy is back growing again, swelling by 3.3 per cent in the three months to the end of September.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday reported a surge in consumer spending drove the growth which is the highest quarterly jump in activity since the late 1960s.
    A surge in consumer spending drove the economic growth.

    Annual growth, however, is still negative, with the economy 3.8 per cent smaller than it was a year ago.

    Key statistics

    The Australian economy rose 3.3% in seasonally adjusted chain volume measures
    Through the year GDP fell 3.8%
    The terms of trade rose 0.7%
    Household saving ratio decreased to 18.9% from 22.1%

    https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product/sep-2020

  44. Here they go, desperately resorting to personal attacks again, all because they can’t deal with the reality that not everyone believes what they believe. Hint: It’s not working guys. All you’re doing is proving how shallow and pathetic you really are. The fact that you have felt the need to reduce yourselves to this level tells me all I need to know.

    I actually find it rather amusing how upset the unhinged nutters from the Labor Right are getting over a few Greens Tweets. They’re so insecure! Now they’re trying to tell me how to post so that I comply with the establishment narrative. I’ll leave that to you.

    Even more amusing is when people say they block you, then not long after they are slagging off at you again and complaining about you. Really guys, if you’re that scared of differing opinions, you should just go rip your modem out of your wall socket or take your frustrations out on your WiFi router with a sledge hammer or something.

    But let us not forget, Labor does have form in this area. Remember when that conservative right wing Laborite Stephen Conroy tried to censor the net? So I guess it’s no great surprise that those of his ilk are still trying to do the same.

    It all comes back to the simple truth that the Labor Right absolutely loathe the Greens and progressive left wingers like me. They simply cannot stand that there are people who don’t subscribe to the establishment’s narrative like they do. They hate being confronted with real left wing news and views because they like to pretend that they are the lefties, simply because they aren’t in the Coalition. These are the real reasons why they have become so desperate.

  46. Brand squatting by the Gs ensures the LNP will be in power at the Commonwealth level for the foreseeable future. I’m 64 years old. I do not expect to see another successful reformist federal government even if live another 40 years.

    The smugness of the FFs of the political sphere is repellant, to be sure, but there’s nothing to be done about it. We’re fucked.

  47. So who remembers this from a few years ago:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-14/photo-shows-nazi-flag-flown-over-australian-army-vehicle/9859618

    The drinking from a prosthetic leg story was also around a few years ago so I don’t know why it’s an “exclusive” now. I recall an attitude of “very naughty boys” who have been reprimanded. The point to note is that when they were drinking from prosthetic legs and flying Nazi flags they were also executing civilians and “blooding” newbies.

    Drinking from a prosthetic leg is an indication of a lack of empathy, adopting any Nazi symbol is an indication of an attitude that doesn’t need reprimanding, it needs abolishing.

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