The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds 67% rating the federal government’s COVID-19 response as good, unchanged on a fortnight ago, with the poor rating down two to 13% – its strongest net result in this regular series since June. The small sample state breakdowns find the South Australian government’s positive rating down six to 70%, which I believe is the lowest it has yet recorded, although it might not pay to read too much into that given the near double-digit margin of error. The results for the other four mainland state are all up by one point: to 76% for New South Wales, 60% for Victoria, 72% for Queensland and 83% for Western Australia.
Respondents were also asked about their level of interest in various news stories: 69% said they were closely following the COVID-19 outbreak in South Australia, against 31% for not closely; 66% likewise for COVID-19 vaccine trials, and 34% for not closely; 56% closely for Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn his election defeat, with 44% for not closely; and 53% closely for war crimes allegations against Australian soliders, against 47% for not closely. The poll also found 37% felt the government spent too much on foreign aid, down four points since 2017, with spends too little steady on 16% and the right amount up four to 23%. Also featured was a series of detailed questions on climate change and coal-fired power plants, which you can read all about in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1034.
In other news, Antony Green peruses the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ report recommending action to preserve the Northern Territory’s second House of Representatives seat, which otherwise stands to be lost based on the territory’s share of the national population. Significantly, he notes that the proposed removal of an existing tweak to the calculation that was added to help the Northern Territory get over the line back in 2004 now stands to cost the Australian Capital Territory the third seat it gained at the last election – perhaps explaining why the government has been so sanguine about preserving Labor-held seats in the Northern Territory.
The change in 2004 made use of the margin of error the Australian Bureau of Statistics provides for its population estimates for the territories, requiring that the figure at the top end of the range be used in making the determination. Whereas the most recent determination credited the ACT with 2.55 quotas, rounding up to three seats, it would have only have been 2.48 if the ABS’s straightforward estimate had been used. There is no suggestion of changing the existing determination to cost the ACT its third seat at the next election, but a significant growth in population would be needed if the third seat was to be preserved at the next election after.
Antony Green’s submission to the inquiry suggested that, in addition to giving the territories a minimum of two seats, the calculation be made not on the basis of the garden variety arithmetic mean, but on the harmonic mean, which would be less prone to rounding down for the territories and smaller states. This method has the virtue of producing “an allocation of seats with a population per member closer to the national quota than the arithmetic mean”. The committee – apparently including the four Labor and one Greens members as well as the five from the government, since there was no dissenting report – acknowledged the logic of this but cited “problems with the potential for public acceptance”
Mention should also be made of Saturday’s by-election in the regional Queensland seat of Groom, which did nothing to alter its complexion as a safe seat for the Coalition. The LNP candidate, Garth Hamilton, currently has 66.9% of the two-party preferred vote with only a handful of votes outstanding, representing a 3.6% swing to Labor Œ more or less the same size of the swing in the Longman by-election that did for Malcolm Turnbull in 2018, though on that occasion his critics could point to a 9.4% drop in the LNP vote as One Nation surged to 15.9%. The One Nation factor went untested on this occasion, since the party did not field a candidate, although the party’s performance in the recent state election suggested they would only have done a limited amount of damage.
Of perhaps more note than the result is the pattern of turnout in the second by-election held during COVID-19 (the first being in Eden-Monaro only July 4): election day turnout was down 21.3%, from 53,943 to 42,490; pre-poll voting centres were up 0.8% from 25,169 to 25,380; and there have so far been 11,966 postal votes counted, compared with 14,108 at the 2019 election. Voter fraud fans may care to note that the LNP did better on election day votes (a 2.7% swing to Labor) than pre-poll votes (a 4.0% swing) and, especially, postal votes (a 7.3% swing).
Good Morning
Quotes of tweets directly from politicians does add to understanding of how parties are travelling.
Such quoting does undo a lot of the bubble effect we get inside this blog.
It must really make the Labor right faction angry at how much a Green’s MP tweet looks like it should be a Labor party tweet.
Of course I could be being unfair to the Labor right faction as it could just be LNP posters pretending to be Labor posters. If so Shy Tory voters post and are among us.
“Apologies, I didn’t realise this needed to be done. I’ll provide a fuller report tomorrow morning, when I’m more prepared.”
***
Should be pretty easy for you, just post a link to one of the News Corp websites and you’re done.
I wonder who is going to be the one tasked with getting our trade relations with China back on track?
Torchbearer:
Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 8:37 am
[‘Using the word bullying is just lazy.’]
I presume you’re referring to my use of “bullies”. Reference is accordingly made to China’s treatment of ethnic minorities, and Hong Kong, though I do agree with you that “bullying” is arguably inappropriate in the context of the current troubles between us and China. More diplomatic language should be used in the endeavour to de-escalate the issues in dispute.
Mavis, don’t encourage “Allizom”. BK does not provide a copy of whole tweets. Perhaps if the Greens favoured by Firefox actually wrote articles…?
France and New Zealand join Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/01/france-and-new-zealand-join-australias-criticism-of-chinese-government-tweet
As I said on the day. Labor made the right call in backing Morrison
Bill Barr going against his president re the voter fraud crapola, is a plot twist I didnt see coming. I expected bill Barr to remain silent throughout this latest shit show.
sprocket_
So Newspoll isn’t a “genuinely” objective poll? ROFL
Victoria:
There’s rich irony that Morrison, who is a big fan of Trump, has ended up emulating Trump’s approach to dealing with China. Pity he’s selling Australians down the river just like Trump did to Americans.
Fess
Morrison thought his megaphone bullypit style would do wonders for him.
This was never going to work with China, who have been as usual, extremely deceptive.
You could argue that Australia have behaved in the same way.
In any event, some high level diplomacy needs to happen, to save the trade relationship.
Who uses WeeChat? Is that parliamentarians?
Vic:
Exactly. Trump tried the bully boy megaphone with China too, and it bit him in the backside.
I thought that wechat thing was a China-specific version of Twitter? Perhaps not.
Firefox
I didn’t see any of those comments reported by the msm. Obviously there is an urgent need, therefore, for me to post them.
Silly of me, I assumed in the past that if people were interested they’d be following Labor MPs themselves, but apparently The World Needs To Know.
Greens MP’s plan to turn parliament ‘inside out’
The Greens MP who defeated Queensland political giant Jackie Trad has promised to spend the next four years battling “to turn parliament inside out”. Here’s her battle plan.
Trump promised to “drain the swamp” in Washington. Look how that turned out!
“Quotes of tweets directly from politicians does add to understanding of how parties are travelling.”
***
Certainly does. It’s not like I’m quoting randoms – these are elected officials who are using Twitter as a way to communicate with the people they represent. Their voices – our voices – have a right to be heard in the political debate.
Victoria says : Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 9:04 am
Bill Barr going against his president re the voter fraud crapola, is a plot twist I didnt see coming. I expected bill Barr to remain silent throughout this latest shit show.
**********************************************
‘Acting-AG Rudy Giuliani?’: Americans speculate if Bill Barr will be fired after declaring no 2020 election fraud
Attorney General Bill Barr arrived at the White House a little before 3 p.m. EST. Moments before he arrived, the Associated Press released an interview in which Barr said that there was no massive voter fraud in the 2020 election. It flies in the face of Trump’s accusations that there was an outbreak of voter fraud in all of the states in won by President-elect Joe Biden.
It prompted speculation on whether Barr would be fired by Trump, who the new acting attorney general would be and when to expect the president lashing out about Barr on Twitter. Even Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) made the joke, according to CNN’s Manu Raju.
“I guess he’s the next one to be fired,” Schumer says of Barr after the AG said no evidence of fraud that would overturn the elections
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 1, 2020
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/12/acting-ag-rudy-giuliani-americans-speculate-if-bil
Victoria
Good post. However Australia is on the front line as China uses the trade war mentality Trump unleashed. We are going to suffer some months of our nationalists feeling vindicated.
January will start to see this rhetoric reverse as the effects of the return of multilateralism starts making itself felt. China is not going to be happy with how quickly experience in government restores that combined power.
The United States is no Russia returning to relevance in world affairs by fighting against multilateralism. A lot of people are going to have to change attitudes for the next few years.
A lot of them will be feeling more discipline from Morrison as he tries to keep the LNP away from the crazies in the party room.
Video below
Molly Jong-FastHouse with garden
@MollyJongFast
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17m
Who could have seen this coming? Everyone?
Quote Tweet
ABC News
@ABC
· 49m
Outraged Georgia election official decries threatening rhetoric against election staff: “Mr. President…senators, you have not condemned this language or these actions. This has to stop! We need you to step up—and if you’re going to take a position of leadership, show some.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1333885609027514372
The Flim Flam Man thinks his innate charm would do the trick ?
.
Scott Morrison appeals directly to Chinese citizens on WeChat
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/scott-morrison-appeals-directly-to-chinese-citizens-on-wechat/news-story/a2a969f936914eae8b95f36276413655
“I didn’t see any of those comments reported by the msm. Obviously there is an urgent need, therefore, for me to post them.”
***
Go for it! Post what you want to post. Seeing Tweets from some Laborites does not worry me. Unlike you, I’m not the one who’s complaining about people sharing the news that is important to them. Get over it.
Excellent analogy Victoria “Morrison thought his megaphone bullypit style” not the Kingswood!!!
Edit: RIP Ross Higgins
Victoria @ #58 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 6:04 am
The fear of going to prison himself is apparently a great motivator. Who knew?
PhoenixRed
Bill Barr is merely stating the bleedin obvious.
Fess
Instead of lazily asking PB for info on WeChat, I looked it up, and you’re right, it originated in China, but it is much more complicated. I have a feeling that the groups that can be formed are used a bit like Facebook. Perhaps MPs have a group. Gladys Liu has used it to create a group of supporters, I think.
Yep, the long con is perfectly apt.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/12/01/trump-is-an-expert-making-money-off-losing-now-hes-doing-it-again/
Haha
John Schindler
@20committee
·
2h
ET TU, BILL?
That’s gotta hurt.
Barr’s suddenly gone from Good Deep State to Bad Deep State. No OANN show for Bill now!
PS Durham’s gonna announce those indictments ANY DAY NOW!
Quote Tweet
CNN Breaking News
@cnnbrk
· 2h
The DOJ hasn’t found evidence of widespread fraud that could’ve changed the result of the presidential election, Attorney General William Barr tells the AP https://cnn.it/33z0ipn
lizzie:
I also recall Rudd reported as being prolific on Wechat at one point to connect with Chinese-Australian voters. I think the platform was created because China censors their internet and the Chinese people cannot access social media platforms like Twitter.
It’s WeChat – the Chinese equivalent of Facebook, Twitter, chatting function etc in one app.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeChat
This sounds like Morrison inserting himself into direct messaging to people in China (as Facebook and Twitter are banned there). It seems like he is trying to emulate Trump’s Twitter performance.
I don’t think this will turn out well.
phoenixRED:
Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 8:48 am
I think Barr wants the sack. He can then say, “Look, I did my best to place fetters on my boss”, though hardly convincing. And he could be facing charges of at least obstruction of justice.
________________________________________
lizzie:
Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 9:02 am
[‘Mavis, don’t encourage “Allizom”. BK does not provide a copy of whole tweets. Perhaps if the Greens favoured by Firefox actually wrote articles…?’]
Noted. This site has become awash with the tweets of Greens’ pollies. Anyway, I off to see my avarice quack, who doesn’t take government cards and charges like a wounded bull, just like lawyers.
“Perhaps if the Greens favoured by Firefox actually wrote articles…?”
***
Actually, I could start posing Greens press releases! Great idea, Lizzie!
FYI this website is full of articles/releases written by Greens MPs: https://greensmps.org.au/
Here’s the latest for you!
General’s Campbell & Burr must resign to preserve the integrity of Afghan War Crimes process
JORDON STEELE-JOHN
Australian Greens Peace spokesperson Senator Jordon Steele-John has called for General’s Campbell and Burr to resign to enable the recommendations of the Afghan Inquiry to be implemented free from any actual or perceived conflicts of interest, and facilitate ongoing investigations by the Australian Federal Police.
General Campbell was the Commander of Joint Task Force 633 responsible for all Australian forces deployed in the Middle East, including Afghanistan, between January 2011 and January 2012. Lt. General Burr was a Commander of SASR on two separate deployments during the Afghanistan War.
“Since this report was first released, I have been clear in questioning how appropriate it is for General Campbell and General Burr to initiate the disciplinary action against commanding officers who served during the Afghanistan War,” Steele-John said.
[Continues…]
https://greensmps.org.au/articles/generals-campbell-burr-must-resign-preserve-integrity-afghan-war-crimes-process
Nicolle Wallace shouts about Trump: ‘He’s a grifter taking your money! Stealing from his supporters!’
MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace let loose about President Donald Trump’s massive fundraising haul that he’s using to fund his own financial efforts.
“Donald Trump’s huge and ever so frail ego is a part of why he hasn’t conceded the election he lost to Joe Biden nearly a month ago,” Wallace said at the top of the segment. “Starting to look like his bank account might also be a factor. New York Times reports today that Trump’s campaign has raised about $170 million since election day through a dizzying spell of emails claiming election fraud and asking supporters for cash. The catch, 75 percent of each donation goes toward a PAC that can be used to fund Donald Trump’s post-election activities.”
Speaking to Donny Deutsch, Wallace asked why his supporters are still giving him money.
“There is no reason to send your money to Donald Trump,” she said. “Even if you like him. Don’t give him your money. Give it to the food bank. He doesn’t need your money. Please, why are they still giving him their money?”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/12/nicolle-wallace-shouts-about-trump-hes-a-grifter-ta
Senate inquiry hears there is no evidence that higher Jobseeker rate has been a disincentive for people looking for work
RACHEL SIEWERT
Labour market economist Professor Jeff Borland has told the senate inquiry looking into the JobSeeker COVID supplement rate that the higher rate of JobSeeker doesn’t impact on the rates of people seeking employment.
Rather than relying on anecdotal claims that unemployed people aren’t looking for work because of the rates of the coronavirus supplement, Professor Borland has looked at the market figures which show there has been no decrease in the number of people moving from unemployment to employment once the economy started reopening again, Senator Rachel Siewert said.
https://greensmps.org.au/articles/senate-inquiry-hears-there-no-evidence-higher-jobseeker-rate-has-been-disincentive-people
Knowing this government’s IT skills Scrott probably did use WeeChat instead of WeChat 😆
https://weechat.org/
COVID IS NOT A CLIMATE POLICY
ADAM BANDT
Greens Leader, Adam Bandt, says the latest reported emissions drop, driven by the Covid-19 shutdowns, should provide no cover for the Morrison Government.
Australia’s reduction targets are some of the weakest in the developed world and are under renewed pressure after the election of Joe Biden who has called on nations to lift 2030 targets.
Indeed, when volatile land clearing figures are excluded, Australia’s emissions are actually above 2005 levels.
“Covid is not a climate policy,” Bandt said.
https://greensmps.org.au/articles/covid-not-climate-policy
Firefox
Thanks for the hint. I think I’ll block you for a while. I dislike being lectured in high tones by the morally pure and Bandt simply irritates me.
Two thirds of Australians think corruption a big problem: time for action
LARISSA WATERS
Data shows more Australians are concerned about political corruption and doubt the Government’s ability to clean up our democracy, Greens Leader in the Senate, Senator Larissa Waters said.
Today’s report from Griffith University and Transparency International Australia found the number of Australians who view corruption as a “very big” or “quite big” problem, rising from 61% in 2018 to 66% in 2020. The number of those who think the federal government is handling corruption issues “very badly” has also risen from 15% to 19.4% over the same period.
https://greensmps.org.au/articles/two-thirds-australians-think-corruption-big-problem-time-action
The shocks for Australia’s political class with the next four years are going to be big.
The vote for Biden was a vote against the American Evangelical world view. A view promoted by Morrison and most of his party along with an alliance of the right wing media outfits.
Murdoch is one of those casualties. The political class is going to be in shock as it’s realised that the Saturday Paper The New Daily Crikey and The Conversation are not left wing.
In a years time voters will know Jacinda Adern is Prime Minister of a centrist government. Not a radical left wing one.
“Thanks for the hint. I think I’ll block you for a while. I dislike being lectured in high tones by the morally pure and Bandt simply irritates me.”
***
Wait, you asked for articles and now you don’t want them? *shrug*
And following on from post above re Georgian authority getting very angry with the death threats of person tasked with managing the voting data etc……….
Ben Collins
@oneunderscore__
The guy who ran 8chan, who spent the last several years in the Philippines, is driving a harassment campaign against a random IT professional in an effort to further the Dominion conspiracy theory.
He’s doing it on this website, using the army of QAnon fans he’s built for years.
9:32 AM · Dec 2, 2020·Twitter Web App
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448
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Ben Collins
@oneunderscore__
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4m
Replying to
@oneunderscore__
This is not just a particularly amoral way to boost a dying conspiracy theory. And it’s not just a terrible thing for democracy.
It’s also just a rotten thing to do to a random fellow human, who woke up today the target of horrific threats just for doing his
Posted for no other reason than to provide everyone with a distraction (and a laugh or two), Jonathon Pie Live At Shepherd’s Bush Empire 2017.
Enjoy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkYSkXMOJ30
I will add that world view includes deny the science at the centre of climate policy.
The same mob that developed the cult techniques for denying evolution have used it to great effect in Australia to protect the fossil fuel industry
The latest iteration being Fitzgibbon arguing coal miners can be conned over the timeline of when Australias fossil fuel exports will be stranded assets.
Mungo has called time,
https://johnmenadue.com/thats-all-she-wrote/
I’ve known he’s been crook for a long time now and it looks like he’s getting worse.
For one I’ll miss his writing and hope he enjoys his retirement and whatever time is left.
Firefox, we want your information. The beauty of how BK does it is in it’s condensed form.
Give a little commentary and post the link. Don’t copy + paste the tweet.
Don’t ignore the mainstream media as an information source. Don’t just listen to the echo chamber.
Additionally dig deep into all the media outlets. This chart might be of use.
Finally, cartoons are a must!
Honestly, I think that it’s for the best that he’s not going to bother with the token civility. It means he’s not entitled to any back and allows him to be historically viewed more as an aberration whose blessing was not sought nor needed for the continuity of governance.
Allizom @ #26 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 8:23 am
It’s no biggie to block you too, dude. :}
“ However, if that’s the way the site’s going, I’m happy to provide tweets from Labor MPs on a daily basis as well.”
Please don’t Zoomster. It will only encourage further propaganda.
I want to be clear – I do not have a problem with some material – whether it be social media or long form opinion pieces from any political party or politician being posted or linked to on this blog, but Firefox is attempting to turn the blog into the daily Greens bulletin board. as his posting rampage this morning amply demonstrates.
I think I’d give up on the blog entirely if people decided to ‘fight fire with fire’ and post similar volumes of propaganda from any of the other players – LNP, Labor, ON, Palmer etc etc.
Bert @ #94 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 6:55 am
He will be missed, I’m sure.
Confessions @ #45 Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 – 8:50 am
Here’s hoping Mr Bowe checks the internet address of both to see if they are indeed one and the same so that they can go the way of the nath Michael. 🙂