On and off again

The 2019 federal election pollster failure gets probed and prodded, as the dust settles on the Queensland election

The site experienced issues yesterday that prevented comments from appearing, which are now more-or-less resolved. However, this involved a lot of plugin updates that might cause certain of the site’s features to misfire for a while. One issue seems to be that comments pagination wasn’t working on the previous thread, hence the need for a new thread despite me not having all that much to relate. Except:

• The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published its report into the 2019 opinion poll failure, which is important and a big deal, but such has been the pace of events lately that I haven’t had time to really look at it yet. Kevin Bonham has though, and he elaborates upon the report’s analysis of historical federal poll performance by looking at state polls as well, which fail to replicate a finding that polls have a general skew to Labor.

• Recounts in the Queensland cliffhanger seats of Bundaberg and Nicklin confirmed Labor’s narrow victories, by nine rather than the original 11 votes in Bundaberg, and by 85 rather than the original 79 in Nicklin.

Simon Benson of The Australian reports privately commissioned post-Queensland election polling by JWS Research found 24% rated “economy, jobs and living costs” as the most important issue, with COVID-19 on 15%, the state’s border arrangements in response on 14% (one might well think the results for these two responses should be combined), environment and climate change on 9%, health on 8% and infrastructure on 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,015 comments on “On and off again”

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  1. zoomster,
    I was told last night that the ALP review into Emma Husar was correct to dismiss the sexual overtures to Jason Clare allegations but there was substance to the way she treated her staff.

    I also agree that Emma was sidelined because the media heat got too hot in the kitchen and instead what would have been a more reasonable thing to do would have been to give her guidance and instruction about treating her staff better.

  2. Confessions @ #NaN Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 9:42 am

    Morning all. Very stiff and sore this morning after a long night of dancing in heels. Have to remember I’m not 25 anymore LOL.

    This is what Biden is up against in his quest to unite the country – from a rural town in Texas which I’d bet echoes the sentiment in similar Trump Country across the US.

    Well, the Catholic God seems to have Blessed, Joe Biden. 😀

  3. Zoomster,
    Emma resigned because she was not supported. After proving her innocence she was denied her again being a candidate for the seat. The ALP should apologise to her. She is still fighting the good fight, she does not rubbish the ALP.

  4. C@tmomma @ #51 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 10:06 am

    zoomster,
    I was told last night that the ALP review into Emma Husar was correct to dismiss the sexual overtures to Jason Clare allegations but there was substance to the way she treated her staff.

    I also agree that Emma was sidelined because the media heat got too hot in the kitchen and instead what would have been a more reasonable thing to do would have been to give her guidance and instruction about treating her staff better.

    Yes, Emma seemed to be managed out by Labor.

    Shorten was desperate to avoid any controversy at the time to achieve his long held personal ambition. No-one was going to bring him down.

  5. “I bet Scott Morrison just choked on his Weet Bix as he watched Sam Maiden let fly.”

    ***

    Doubt it – unlikely he is actually watching the ABC. Probably watching the nutters on Sky if he is watching anything.

    Bet Albo just choked on his though after she let fly a second time and went into detail about the massive rift in Labor. Although, that would be old news to him by now, so maybe not.

  6. Speaking of the Sky/Fox nutters…

    Foxtel given $10 million federal grant without plan for spending it, FOI documents reveal

    Foxtel has been given a blank sheet for choosing how to spend a $10 million Federal Government grant and does not need to submit anything about it until next year, documents reveal.

    The documents, obtained under a Freedom of Information (FOI) request, show the Federal Communications Department gave Foxtel free rein to allocate millions of dollars of taxpayer money granted to broadcast under-represented sports.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-13/foxtel-given-$10-million-without-plan-to-spend-it-foi-reveals/12868704

  7. C@t
    Yes very easy to turn fever clinics into vaccination clinics.
    The limiting step will be voluntary vaccination.
    The pandemic disaster exercise I mentioned last night was partly so successful because flu vaccination was a requirement to continue clinical work in NSW Health.
    Will a carrot and stick approach be needed?

    Re Hussar:
    Why Beamer? Robertson and Lindsay were thrown away at the pre-selection.

  8. Craig Thomson was found guilty of misusing a corporate credit card for personal expenses, some of which were of a, shall we say, disreputable nature. He was hounded day and night for over a year by the Liberal-National-Murdoch Coalition. However, does anyone think that any Morrison of Government Minister or MP who committed similar offences wouldn’t be protected by that same coalition.

    The example of Peter Slipper is instructive. He seemed to have a somewhat “flexible” view of the use of his expense entitlement, the legality of which was up for debate. His depredations, committed as an LNP member, were no worse than those many current Government members. He was protected by the LNP-Murdoch Coalition while inside the tent and viciously attacked when he accepted an offer of the Speakership from the Labor Government.

  9. The winning margin of nine votes in Bundaberg must be one of the narrowest victories in either a by-election or general election in Australian political history. But there was a closer one. In 1985 the VLC seat of Nunawading resulted in a tie, resolved in this way:

    [‘Bob Ives tied with Rosemary Varty, but won the seat with a casting vote by the returning officer, who drew Ives’ name from a hat. Adding to the drama, the seat decided control of the Legislative Council. Before Ives could take his seat, the result was subsequently voided by a Court of Disputed Returns on the grounds that 44 votes had been incorrectly excluded from the count, and the court ordered a by-election. Varty then won the by-election.’]

  10. By the way. I do not live in the Electorate of Lindsay I live in the Qld Hinkler Electorate. The ALP have had some good Reps in Lindsay shame it continues to swing.

  11. I found this explanation in Wikipedia. I continue to feel she was not given enough support by the ALP.

    Husar had already been re-endorsed as the party’s candidate at the 2019 election, but announced on 8 August 2018 (two days before investigation findings were made public)[15] she would not recontest her marginal seat. Labor accepted her decision.[16] In an interview on the ABC’s 7.30, Husar said “slut shaming” led to her decision to resign.[17]

    In November 2018, Husar said she had changed her mind and disputed that she had ever ceased to be endorsed as the Labor candidate.[18] Husar sought intervention by Labor leader Bill Shorten, who stated that it was not in the best interests of the ALP or Husar for her to recontest the seat.[19] On 7 December 2018, NSW Labor formally disendorsed Husar from recontesting the seat of Lindsay.[20]

    She subsequently stated that she would challenge the disendorsement.[21] On 11 December, Labor officially selected Diane Beamer. Apparently, Husar did not nominate for the ALP preselection ballot.[22] On 11 April, she confirmed that she would not contest the seat as an independent at the 2019 federal election.[23]

  12. Trickle-down economics is the theory that giving benefits to the most well-off in society, such as tax cuts for the wealthy, will boost the economy as the money flows down like water.

    In Victoria, the state worst-hit by the human and financial toll of the pandemic, the State Government will release its budget Monday week.

    They’ve gone with a very different way of boosting the economy: firehose economics.

    The State Government appears to be using the opportunity of record-low interest rates to hose the community in cash, aiming to douse the fires of the recession, create jobs, and help people forget the mis-steps and failures that led to a fatal second wave of the coronavirus….

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-15/victorian-budget-preview/12878968

    Looking forward to this budget.

  13. Muskiemp @ #64 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 10:28 am

    I found this explanation in Wikipedia. I continue to feel she was not given enough support by the ALP.

    Husar had already been re-endorsed as the party’s candidate at the 2019 election, but announced on 8 August 2018 (two days before investigation findings were made public)[15] she would not recontest her marginal seat. Labor accepted her decision.[16] In an interview on the ABC’s 7.30, Husar said “slut shaming” led to her decision to resign.[17]

    In November 2018, Husar said she had changed her mind and disputed that she had ever ceased to be endorsed as the Labor candidate.[18] Husar sought intervention by Labor leader Bill Shorten, who stated that it was not in the best interests of the ALP or Husar for her to recontest the seat.[19] On 7 December 2018, NSW Labor formally disendorsed Husar from recontesting the seat of Lindsay.[20]

    She subsequently stated that she would challenge the disendorsement.[21] On 11 December, Labor officially selected Diane Beamer. Apparently, Husar did not nominate for the ALP preselection ballot.[22] On 11 April, she confirmed that she would not contest the seat as an independent at the 2019 federal election.[23]

    Shorten was not going to let Emma hurt his chances of personal achievement.

  14. ‘Economic inequality on steroids’: Greens to fight stage three tax cuts

    Top earners will take home the majority of personal income tax cuts worth $325 billion over the next decade in a move the Greens label “economic inequality on steroids”.

    Parliamentary Budget Office modelling requested by Greens leader Adam Bandt shows the Morrison government’s tax reform plan will see 58 per cent of the savings flow to the top 20 per cent of income earners compared to 0.1 per cent for the lowest paid. Those in the middle bracket will get 15 per cent of the benefit of the cuts.

    Mr Bandt will reveal the figures at his second national conference as leader of the Greens on Saturday afternoon, in a speech calling out wealth inequality as a crucial fight for the party over the next 12 months.

    “In 2030 alone, those tax cuts will suck $43 billion out of public services, three times what they will spend on our public schools in that year,” Mr Bandt will say.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/economic-inequality-on-steroids-greens-to-fight-stage-three-tax-cuts-20201113-p56ech.html

  15. Treasurer Tim Pallas stood up in Parliament to state: “$107 billion of state capital projects are commencing or underway. Now remarkably, we are currently investing more in Victoria than the Commonwealth intends to spend across the entire nation over the next decade”.

    His colleagues roared for him to repeat it, and he happily did.

    Getting things done !

  16. zoomster says:
    Sunday, November 15, 2020 at 10:03 am
    Muskiemp

    I was talking about their treatment by the media – Thomsen was stalked and harassed, with the media camped outside his home.

    Emma was supported by the party; it was her decision to not recontest her seat. She then changed her mind, after a new candidate had been declared.

    She decided to throw in her political career for a very good reason….a reason that has not been touched on in the public commentary hitherto, and which, hopefully, will not be publicly canvassed.

  17. Rex,
    I mostly disagree with your comments but this time I agree. So if one comments on everything, I guess that some one will be in agreement.

  18. Australia’s wealthy to benefit most from next round of Coalition tax cuts

    …In a speech to the Greens national conference, Bandt will also inflame tensions within Labor by noting that backbencher Joel Fitzgibbon has called on his party to allow stage-three cuts for middle- and high-income earners to stand.

    In June 2019, Labor reluctantly passed the third stage of tax cuts, which will flatten tax brackets so that income between $45,000 and $200,000 is taxed at the rate of 30%.

    Labor is yet to decide whether to contest the next election on a promise of repealing the cuts, which would free up $130bn for other spending but open it up to Coalition attacks that Labor is the party of higher tax.

    The Parliamentary Budget Office assessed successive rounds of income tax cuts since 2017 and found they will give the top quintile of income earners an extra $189bn by 2030-31, dwarfing the benefit to the lowest income earners, who get $440m, and the middle-income earners, who get $50bn.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/14/australias-wealthy-to-benefit-most-from-next-round-of-coalition-tax-cuts

  19. Oakeshott Country,

    Re Hussar:
    Why Beamer? Robertson and Lindsay were thrown away at the pre-selection.

    1. Beamer because name recognition and hoped for support as a result. Didn’t work out that way.

    2. Watch this space wrt Robertson. I can safely say it won’t be her again.

  20. The Victorian Government has announced it will spend $5.3 billion to build more than 12,000 public housing homes over the next four years.

    Construction will start immediately on what is being described as the largest ever investment by a state government in public housing across the country.

    The project is estimated to create 43,000 jobs.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-15/victorian-government-announces-$5.3b-to-build-new-public-housing/12884962

    YUUUGE !

  21. Non @ #74 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 10:41 am

    zoomster says:
    Sunday, November 15, 2020 at 10:03 am
    Muskiemp

    I was talking about their treatment by the media – Thomsen was stalked and harassed, with the media camped outside his home.

    Emma was supported by the party; it was her decision to not recontest her seat. She then changed her mind, after a new candidate had been declared.

    She decided to throw in her political career for a very good reason….a reason that has not been touched on in the public commentary hitherto, and which, hopefully, will not be publicly canvassed.

    Some might think you’re just making things up.

  22. @BelindaJones68
    ·
    20h
    So, @D_LittleproudMP

    Care to explain how your own Agriculture Dept says the pest & weed problem is ‘widespread’ yet $21.8 million out of $25.3 million has gone to Coalition seats, $9.3 million to your own seat?

    Why doesn’t funding correlate to your maps?

  23. I don’t think Beamer was all that popular in the local branches (where she had been involved in long term shenanigans) let alone the electorate. Her term in state parliament had not been stellar.

  24. Rex
    ” What do you disagree with ?”

    I’ll throw in an answer (uninvited). I disagree with your frequent statements that Labor and the Coalition are somehow equivalent, equally bad. For example, Labor wants to address Global Heating, even though at this stage they can’t agree how. The Coalition have no intention of doing so beyond lip-service and token gestures. Good solutions have been rejected by the Senate and at the ballot box so Labor has to find another way.

    I don’t necessarily disagree with your talk of a “duopoly”. A system of single-member electorates pretty much mandates it, although preferential voting does mitigate its worst effects.

  25. Has anyone done a reliable study on whether pork-barrelling in an electorate actually affects the result to any degree? How many change their vote because one section of the community gets a sports facility?

  26. Steve777 @ #85 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 11:00 am

    Rex
    ” What do you disagree with ?”

    I’ll throw in an answer (uninvited). I disagree with your frequent statements that Labor and the Coalition are somehow equivalent, equally bad. For example, Labor wants to address Global Heating, even though at this stage they can’t agree how. The Coalition have no intention of doing so beyond lip-service and token gestures. Good solutions have been rejected by the Senate and at the ballot box so Labor has to find another way.

    I don’t necessarily disagree with your talk of a “duopoly”. A system of single-member electorates pretty much mandates it, although preferential voting does mitigate its worst effects.

    The fossil fuel cartel has controlling interests in both major parties that constrains them both from effectively dealing with the climate/energy issue.

  27. Muskiemp

    It may not change votes however, it is still pork-barreling.

    I’m not disputing that. I’m just angry at the unfairness of the choices MPs make in the hope of “buying” an advantage and it seems to have been magnified under the current gov.

  28. brilliant news re Victoria’s social housing spend. I would be interested in the details but this sounds really good:

    “Mr Andrews said 1,000 public housing dwellings would be set aside for Indigenous Victorians, another 1,000 for victims of domestic violence and 2,000 would be provided to people with a mental illness.”

  29. OK, to navigate this page I’m having to click on ‘Older posts’ and ‘newer posts’ rather than just refreshing.

    Won’t help anyone who hasn’t realised that’s what you need to do, but….

  30. Oakeshott Country @ #59 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 9:16 am

    C@t
    Yes very easy to turn fever clinics into vaccination clinics.
    The limiting step will be voluntary vaccination.
    Will a carrot and stick approach be needed?

    The carrot could be that you won’t get sick and the stick that with restrictions lifting you likely will. Or maybe something along the lines of the Medicare levy could work as both carrot and stick? Though I don’t know how you’d tie medical records into the ATO.

  31. lizzie @ #86 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 11:02 am

    Has anyone done a reliable study on whether pork-barrelling in an electorate actually affects the result to any degree? How many change their vote because one section of the community gets a sports facility?

    It’s not necessarily a direct effect but it provides a photo opportunity, a feel good, positive story that floods the zone before election day, crowding out any negative press. Also it allows Ministers and the Prime Minister to flit from one electorate to the other achieving the same outcome.

    Also, as you would realise from being here on PB that sport is inculcated into the nation as an almost religion, so to announce improvements will always be applauded as much as a new road by the electorate demographic you are pitching to, mums and dads, maybe even more.

  32. ‘Shorten was not going to let Emma hurt his chances of personal achievement.’

    Why this slur?

    Rudd disendorsed preselected candidates because of untested claims made against them.

    Several posters here are demanding that Albo act against Fitzgibbon (I’m not a Fitzgibbon fan; it’s boring that that needs to be stated in a discussion but that’s the way it works here).

    Daniel Andrews has sacked Ministers.

    We’re also well aware that Morrison SHOULD be sacking several Ministers/MPs. It’s not a virtue that he’s standing by them.

    Leaders – of all stripes – minimise electoral damage by removing candidates/MPs.

    If Shorten accepted Husar’s decision to step down, then that’s nothing out of the ordinary.

    The fact that Husar is still supportive of Labor – unlike (cough) some former party leaders – suggests that she now accepts what happened and bears no grudges about it.

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