Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “Around the traps”

Comments Page 6 of 27
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  1. Awwwww!

    Matthew Doran
    @MattDoran91
    ·
    47s
    Across the ditch, the Prime Minister’s fiancé has brought some food out for the media, camped outside their home awaiting the NZ election results

  2. This reminds me that I’ll get a chance to drop into the Temora Warbirds Museum next weekend on my way out for a month on circuit in Griffith. While they don’t have Seafire, they do have a late war Spitfire Mk VIII with a Merlin 70 donk.

    https://youtu.be/_YioXYhbVPA

  4. Fulvio, it pains me and many if my colleagues that in order to do what we do, we really on money for FMG, Woodside and Rio Tonto.

  5. My prediction for Trump (FWIW) is that he loses bigly, chucks a tanty, resigns, Pence takes over ’till January, and inter alia pardons Trump and everybody else.

  6. Andrew Earlwood

    “ they do have a late war Spitfire Mk VIII with a Merlin 73 donk.”
    ————
    That was one of the variants my father flew as a pilot in No. 152 (the Hyderabads) Squadron RAF during WW2. 🙂

  7. “ Well, apart from keeping bad intimate company, it seems “Koala Killer” might be the the only thing for which she is remembered. It is quiet sad, for the koalas.”

    Koalas are emblematic for the other 1000 or so species that will likely go functionally extinct at the same time and for the same reasons. None of this has to do with ‘traditional farming’ or even sustainable farming. It all has to do with property development- whether it be for mining, fracking, housing or ‘consolidation’ (ie. changing from farming food for our tables to large agribusinesses flogging shit – mainly beef, but also cotton and rice – overseas).

    That added to all the terrible decisions that she has made that impact more generally on the future of NSW. Privatisations, stadiums, museums, light rail, metro rail to Bankstown, etc etc.

    #koalakiller #WorseThanAskin

  8. Hmm. The idea of Pence pardoning Trump has a certain heft. But can President Pence pardon ex-President Trump if he has not yet been charged?

  10. “ That was one of the variants my father flew as a pilot in No. 152 (the Hyderabads) Squadron RAF during WW2. ”

    Sweet ride. Although I don’t know why the RAAF in 1944 ordered spitfires with 2 canons and 4 x.303 brownings. 2 canons and 2 x .50 cal brownings were the best options. I wonder whether it was because the armour of Japanese warplanes never developed in the same way the Luftwaffe’s late warbirds didn’t and hence the .303 was still relevant.

  11. Late Riser, we have the precedent of Gerald Ford pardoning Nixon, read carefully..

    I don’t know if this applies to all State laws..

  13. Hmm, thanks sprocket. That’s a hell of a precedent. About the only thing left is State crimes, as you say, and stuff he may have done outside a range of date, which Pence gets to choose.

  15. The incompetence of the UK government knows no bounds.

    “Paul Bernal@PaulbernalUK ·15m
    Sorry to report, Spock, but there’s no sign of intelligent life on Planet Brexit.”

    “William Shatner@WilliamShatner · Oct 16
    UK folks; looks like your government is wanting to force vendors outside of your country to collect VAT on orders being shipped to the UK staring 1 Jan. I had my staff investigate costs & it’s over £1000/yr just to file these forms via a service. That’s too much for a small store”

  16. With 25% of advance votes counted, Labour leads National by 50-26, with 8% for the Greens and ACT. The Maori party is also shown as winning one electorate seat, thus entering parliament.

  17. Andrew_Earlwood @ #259 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 5:36 pm

    “ That was one of the variants my father flew as a pilot in No. 152 (the Hyderabads) Squadron RAF during WW2. ”

    Sweet ride. Although I don’t know why the RAAF in 1944 ordered spitfires with 2 canons and 4 x.303 brownings. 2 canons and 2 x .50 cal brownings were the best options. I wonder whether it was because the armour of Japanese warplanes never developed in the same way the Luftwaffe’s late warbirds didn’t and hence the .303 was still relevant.

    https://www.quora.com/In-WW2-most-if-not-all-Japanese-combat-aircraft-were-inadequately-armored-Especially-after-the-inital-period-it-was-obvious-for-their-top-command-as-well-How-difficult-could-it-be-to-field-modify-Japanese-planes-on-the-field-in-WW2

    Originally Answered: In WW2 most if not all Japanese combat aircraft were inadequately armored. Especially after the inital period it was obvious for their top command as well. How difficult could it be to field modify Japanese planes on the field in WW2 ?
    It wasn’t just about armor, one of the Achille’s heels of Japanese aircraft was their lack of self-sealing fuel tanks.

    Self-sealing tanks were an innovation hit upon by most of World War II combatants. Fuel tanks were wrapped in rubber or contained a rubber bladder. Bullets piercing the tank would be sealed or greatly restrict the holes by the rubber and ameliorate the fuel loss and fire danger.

    Goodnight all. 📺💤

  20. Murdoch wont be happy with the Labor/Labour wins tonight. Sky sad Arses after Dark will be in mourning.Its been called a bloodbath in NZ for the Nationals.

  22. Of course a single 20mm canon shell would likely disintegrate an unarmoured Zero or Betty Bomber, so I’m still unsure as to why the RAAF Mk VIII – ordered in mid 1944 and delivered in Australia in April 1945 – came with 4 x 0.303 brownings. That configuration seems so … 1942. It is particularly perplexing given that the RAAF Mk VIIIs came equipped with the Merlin 70 series and not Merlin 66s – and that WAS a very 1944-5 configuration! I’ll have to ask the boffins at Temora next weekend.

  24. TPOF @ #245 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 3:58 pm

    Steve777 says:
    Saturday, October 17, 2020 at 4:27 pm
    Morrison only takes responsibility for the good stuff and that whether or not it was his doing.

    ______________________________

    Morrison takes credit for the achievements of everybody else and blames everybody else for his failures.

    That is the gist of marketing.


  27. Oakeshott Country says:
    Saturday, October 17, 2020 at 12:35 pm

    Again, unless the NZ travellers were completely brain dead they would have been aware of the severe restrictions required in Victoria. Almost certainly they are returning Vic residents or relatives. I don’t think anyone is leaving NZ to see the Penguin Parade

    After spending billions of dollars the outcome is to depend on arrivals keeping up with Victorian news?

  28. “ Andrew_Earlwood
    Perhaps purchases from our ‘allies’ was just as ‘sensible’ back then as it is now ?”

    Nah. It is clear that the RAAF set the specifications and they could clearly have asked for either 4 x Hispano Mk5 canons or 2 x canons and 2 x 0.5 cal brownings in 1944. The RAAF clearly had some reason in mind. I had a fleeting thought that perhaps Australia’s wartime domestic production supply chain for ammunition stores might have had something to do with it. But quickly rejected the notion: we had been using the Hispano, .303 brownings and the .5 cal brownings for most of the war. In 1944 the Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation were manufacturing Mustang P51Ds under licence at Fishermen’s Bend – all equipped with 6 x .50 brownings

  36. Emma Alberici. Seriously wtf

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    7h
    I hope everybody is watching the never-endingly earnest defence of a compromised and dishonest politician being waged here.

    And the way it is sadly being framed.

    It’s not some pathetic love story.

    It is #GladysBerejiklian’s honesty and transparency that is under question.
    Quote Tweet

    Emma Alberici
    @albericie
    · 12h
    There has still been no evidence produced that @GladysB acted corruptly.

    It’s entirely open to believe she was duped by a guy who broke her heart & turned out to be a horrible liar in for the bargain

    https://thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/10/17/poor-gladys-rings-hollow-after-premiers-icac-grilling/160285320010562?utm_source=tsp_website&utm_campaign=social_mobile_twitter&utm_medium=social_share
    Show this thread

  37. Looking at reports it seems the Feds didn’t tell the marauding Kiwis they couldn’t go to certain places.
    When they applied to come you’d think they’d have been told.

  38. Victoria @ #286 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 7:44 pm

    Emma Alberici. Seriously wtf

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    7h
    I hope everybody is watching the never-endingly earnest defence of a compromised and dishonest politician being waged here.

    And the way it is sadly being framed.

    It’s not some pathetic love story.

    It is #GladysBerejiklian’s honesty and transparency that is under question.
    Quote Tweet

    Emma Alberici
    @albericie
    · 12h
    There has still been no evidence produced that @GladysB acted corruptly.

    It’s entirely open to believe she was duped by a guy who broke her heart & turned out to be a horrible liar in for the bargain

    https://thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/10/17/poor-gladys-rings-hollow-after-premiers-icac-grilling/160285320010562?utm_source=tsp_website&utm_campaign=social_mobile_twitter&utm_medium=social_share
    Show this thread

    Emma Alberici has Stockholm Syndrome from being perpetually harassed by the Liberals.

  41. BSA Bob @ #287 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 7:45 pm

    Looking at reports it seems the Feds didn’t tell the marauding Kiwis they couldn’t go to certain places.
    When they applied to come you’d think they’d have been told.

    I thought Scotty from Marketing was planning to be there at the airport to greet them? You’d think he would have told them. 🙂

  43. Hmmm. Speaking of which

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    I wonder if the person who has suddenly developed a deeply passionate interest in Gladys as well as John Barilaro and seems prepared to die on Glad & John’s hill as if their life depended on it, is actually tweeting as a dispassionate observer or as a lobbyist in their new job?
    6:32 PM · Oct 17, 2020·Twitter Web App
    96
    Retweets

  44. Of course a single 20mm canon shell would likely disintegrate an unarmoured Zero or Betty Bomber, so I’m still unsure as to why the RAAF Mk VIII – ordered in mid 1944 and delivered in Australia in April 1945 – came with 4 x 0.303 brownings. That configuration seems so … 1942. It is particularly perplexing given that the RAAF Mk VIIIs came equipped with the Merlin 70 series and not Merlin 66s – and that WAS a very 1944-5 configuration! I’ll have to ask the boffins at Temora next weekend.

    Efficiency?
    Assuming there were separate “triggers” for the different calibre weapons, pinging light/unarmoured fighter escorts with .303’s first makes sense – you keep the heavier calibres in reserve for the bombers.

    Visiting Flinders Island and discovering a plaque describing a WWII Japanese submarine launching it’s “Glen” float plane to reconnoiter Port Phillip Bay (and, earlier, Sydney Harbour) was an eye-opener to say the least.
    https://www.ozatwar.com/japrecce/recce02.htm

  47. Paul Edbrooke MP
    @paul4frankston
    ·
    2h
    On the same day Victoria recorded 723 cases back in July, the UK recorded 763.

    Today, Victoria records 1 case and 0 deaths, the UK records 15,650 and 136 deaths (43429 total)

    Who still thinks we should have opened up like the UK and ‘learned to live’ with COVID-19’ ?

  49. steve davis says:
    Saturday, October 17, 2020 at 6:32 pm
    Murdoch wont be happy with the Labor/Labour wins tonight. Sky sad Arses after Dark will be in mourning.Its been called a bloodbath in NZ for the Nationals.
    ____________________
    In New York the prevailing view will be “who knew”?

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