Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.
That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:
• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.
• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.
• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.
• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.
• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.
Tassie up to 5 Kiwis.
What a shame boerwar is not around anymore – he would have seen the Gladys story for what it was – a greens plot masterminded by the Chinese communists !
Scott @ #621 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 2:49 pm
You mean like Gladys?
“ Couldn’t the Telegraph find any achievements of hers to boost?”
– Losing 13 colleagues to an ICAC Developer donation Scandal
– cravenly giving in to the Nats, rural developers and ‘let it rip’ brigade with the most regressive laws we have seen in native vegetation clearing. Thereby ensuring that the koala will be functionally extinct in a decade and over a 1000 vulnerable species at risk of following the koala
– demolishing perfectly good stadiums, convention centres, exhibition halls, more stadiums, world class museums for developer maaates
– privatising just about everything she could. Then promising to not privatise anything more then privatising a bunch of other stuff she said she wouldn’t …
– $2 billion blow out on a $1 billion light rail vanity project
– Westconnex
– the absurd Bankstown metro conversion project
There. But some of #guiltygladys’s achievements.
Lars Von Trier @ #702 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 6:08 pm
You really are a total dickhead, aren’t you.
If the deal was that he would marry Gladys once his debts were cleared, she had a clear interest.
Channel 9 running polls in MacQuarie and Dobell with the coalition primary in the 50s and Labor in the 20s. Didn’t catch any details of who did the polling and how many polled.
Lizzie
I was first drawn to the ankle boots!
Then I noticed the lacy top with white bra underneath
Lacy top is not a good look on Nikki Savva and it’s worse on a matronly figure
I pine for the sensible dress of Laura Tingle who favours Sportscraft. Her views are more measured also.
Aqualung @ #707 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 6:13 pm
Seat polls 2 years from an Election are as useful as an ashtray on a bicycle.
billie
Yes, the boots were a bit of a shock. Oh, and to keep the genders equal, I noticed that David Speers was all in dark grey. No doubt in mourning for Jacinda’s victory.
Gladys
How could you fall in lerve with a former Harvey Norman franchisee holder?
How did Maguire get a $1.5m debt?
As Zoomster said yesterday, you look like a couple.
Who else are you involved with?
GG seat polls are unreliable at the best of times but thought I should fill my psephological quota.
Doesn’t really gel with the published polls.
Andrew_Earlwood
When you collect all those actions into one, it makes me wonder who, except real estate sharks and developers, could possibly think Glad had done well.
The Telecrap today certainly went above and beyond the call of duty today with the foot massage and back rub it gave Gladys.
As hard hitting interviews go it has now gone to the top of the charts surpassing the take no prisoners interview of John Howard by Janet Albrechtsen.
Aqualung @ #713 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 6:20 pm
Data is not information.
Has Albanese commented on Tudge’s shambolic ‘bubble’ management ?
or does Andrews and McGowan have to do all the heavy lifting ?
To Alan Tudge, who is arguing that states have complete control of their borders.
Well I never.
Bingo
RonniSalt
@RonniSalt
·
37s
“I planned to have a life together with him but it wasn’t an intimate relationship and I was his confidante but didn’t know his confidences and I loved him but stopped as soon as I knew I was testifying before an ICAC hearing,”
. . . said nobody ever.
#GladysBerejiklian
lizzie @ #718 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 6:29 pm
Someone from Labor has to change the narrative.
Yep. It’s just so ridiculous
Eddy Jokovich
@EddyJokovich
·
17m
How many people would think they loved someone and wanted to marry them, but the relationship was so insignificant they wouldn’t tell anyone else about it? #NSWPOL
Is Jennifer Hewitt the daughter of that old Tory relic Sir Lennox Hewitt?
Poroti:
> Yaay Trumpenstein loses. First Seppo president for a geologic age not to start a new war.
Tell that to the Iranians. Trump reimposed economic sanctions on Iran, welshing on the deal the Obama administration signed. As good as a war, with Iran now economically crippled and getting smashed by COVID-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/iran-at-breaking-point-as-it-fights-third-wave-of-coronavirus
Rex and Lizzie, I’m pretty sure 9 extrapolated that landslide from the 2 seat level polls.
I’d be taking that with a grain of salt at the moment.
“Mr Burns, you’re campaign has all the momentum of a runaway steam train and you are more popular than ever.” That is a paraphrase of the Simpsons, but Uhlmann basically quoted it about the Scrot… says it all about the depth to his analysis doesn’t it?
Aqualung
I didn’t believe it for a moment. I just laughed.
Just before I retire. Has anyone seen Scotty today? I’d be interested to see his hair colour. 😆
I was struggling to believe those 2 seat polls Lizzie.
I’m happy to accept the newspoll situation but I still reckon smoko will be looking to go early.
Hubris.
Surely Morrison will have to resign if any of those passengers end up spreading the corona virus
Only if he defected to Labor.
Re GG @6:04.
If the UK numbers are for the whole UK, divide by 10 to get the equivalent for Victoria. If it’s just England, divide by 8.
To survive as just an MP in the Bear Pit you have to be tough, savvy, cynical and have a several litres of mongrel blood running through your arteries.
Multiply that by 10,000 if you want to have any chance of being an effective Premier.
So what do we get?
Gladys “The Head Prefect” Berejiklian: led up the garden path by a country bumpkin with a glad eye, a slick line of patter, a sharp suit and the “debt recovery agents” out to break his balls.
What hope would she have up against a real operator, aka. your typical, average NSW property developer, tunnel digger, tollway operator and/or member of the Aspen Spivocracy?
For that alone she should resign, as not being able to discern the difference between a leering lurk merchant and a koala bear from more than the length of a sex kitten’s tail.
She was going to hook up with Dangerous Daryl once he’d paid of his millions in debt by a means she didn’t want to know anything at all about. It was true love, you see. Very private. You can see how private because it’s all over the Sunday Telegraph.
Yeah, I’ll believe that.
BB: ”For that alone she should resign, as not being able to discern the difference between a leering lurk merchant and a koala bear…”
This is what the media is making her out to be. If she’s that stupid, she’s unfit for her job. If she’s not stupid (and she isn’t), then she’s either complicit in dodgy dealings or at the very least she turned a blind eye to them. In either case unfit for office.
She should go. I make no predictions as to if and when she’ll go – I think she’ll survive for now but as always I could be wrong.
And I couldn’t give a stuff about her personal life.
Bushfire Bill
+100 Bambi or Babes in the Wood do not end up at the top of the cesspit that is NSW politics. Gladdie and the journos trying to portray her as one = 24k Bullshit
Such rage on here that Gladys hasn’t resigned.
Albo took a sensible position on it fwiw leaving the personal personal.
davidwh @ #690 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 4:48 pm
It seems as though Cameron Dick might be next in line:
Even though Steven Miles is well-qualified too:
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/queensland-has-a-new-deputy-premier-and-treasurer-who-are-they-20200511-p54rrp.html
Gladys, Top Koala Killer and current Head of the NSW Corp, must be hanging on because she’s found a public asset that has escaped spivisation.
“To survive as just an MP in the Bear Pit you have to be tough, savvy, cynical and have a several litres of mongrel blood running through your arteries.”
This is not really true. No rougher than here.
The only premier to survive since 1995 is Bob Carr who did not/does not have those features and there are plenty of journeymen who just hang around eg Hazzard sat on the opposition benches for the whole of the 16 years and who is the member for Cabramatta, again. He will have to be carried out.
On that point, to some extent (maybe a lot), Mark Latham may be important. I know he kind of hates everyone, a lot, but he has the Premier lined up and he can articulate a case (not only as
mere comparison to the RW rump in the Council) including to the Premier’s supporters.
He has the other ON by the pubes, the Elephant Killer and his team are on board and the Greens. How he works, if bothered, with the independent and the Animal Justice Party (and Shoebridge who is eloquent and thoughtful) could be decisive.
lizzie @ #753 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 6:41 pm
Pubic. 😐
In a recent UK wide survey 54% believe Scotland will vote for independence from the Union within a year!! 🙂
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18802687.scottish-independence-54-per-cent-uk-think-coming-year-so/
Latest ACT post election manoeuvrings…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-18/tight-battles-for-final-seats-as-greens-weigh-up-options/12779772
C@t
Don’t be revolting. Please.
Aqualung @ #732 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 6:13 pm
So, Labor in a landslide then? 😀
Look, Macquarie and Dobell are 2 heavily-targeted Labor seats the Liberals think they’ve got a chance of snatching from Labor. Those polls could have been of every Liberal Party member in the 2 seats, who knows the truth? It just sounds like expectations management in the run-up to the next election to me. Repeat a lie for long enough and people will come to believe it to be the truth.
They have been the pits
David Milner
@DaveMilbo
·
9h
@theheraldsun
you guys know you’re just an open joke now, right? A dangerous, stupid, hate-spewing joke that toyed with our lives and mental health because you failed to realise this was an unusual moment and you stuck to your usual script. You will not be forgiven
C@t has always had a bawdy sense of humour Lizzie. I don’t have a problem with it.
Even if Macquarie and Dobell are “swinging”, there would be some counterweights in Vic and Qld, probably.
On the Koala theme, I was surprised today to see a flyer in our letterbox in the Maiwar electorate, the one held by the Greens. The flyer started with these words, all in caps.
KOALA, POWERFUL OWL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS FUNDING
It was an LNP flyer promoting Lauren Day. It went on to promise spending on “key environmental projects” including a new wetland in Indooroopilly, rehabilitation in Fig Tree Pocket, and Brisbane River rehabilitation. Cynics might say that terms like “wetland” might need to be defined, but Koalas…hmm.
LVT
I have no problem with a bawdy sense of humour. I just don’t want to be reminded of scomo’s private parts.