Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Around the traps”

  1. C@tmomma, I didn’t catch the poll details assuming they gave them or who conducted them. They only gave primaries.
    We can hope that they work in reverse.

  2. Shell bell,

    Carr was the exception to the rule and, to be fair, he was up against the likes of … sheesh… does anyone remember their names? You only see them on The Drum these days, as guest hecklers.

  3. Yeah AE, I do remember her. She is an Australian. I wondered how she wangled a seat in the House of Commons. Hewitt was big shot in the public service and then ran Qantas didn’t he?

  4. BB

    Quite. The key to survive in the bear pit is to have one or more shithouse opponents either at spill, preselection or at election.

    There has not been a tough premier since Wran although the current Premier may be willing to tough it out.

  5. I’d always thought of Macquarie as a fairly safe liberal seat Shellbell but it appears it’s morphed into a marginal.
    It covers a large area. A lot of the Hawkesbury is presumably being urbanised.
    I can imagine the mountain portion swinging like the state seat.

  6. “ although the current Premier may be willing to tough it out.”

    Ye, gads I hope. Make her – and her Spivnation – bled all the way to the next poll.

    #guiltygladys

  7. Palmer, and to a lesser extent Hason, have started their media campaign, with the former taking full-page ads in the CM, pushing the same line as he did in the last federal election. Things have changed dramatically though, and I think he’ll be seen as the bogey-man for suing WA for its hard borders’ policy. Hanson – predictably – is on the law & order bandwagon, though her ad is less than a quarter of a page. While I’m reticent to provide advice to a billionaire, and a person who has had her nose in the trough for a generation, you’re both wasting your hard-earned bucks.

  8. Such a contrast at the Brownlow on Ch 7.
    Melb studio all subdued and with the masked players looking like they would rather be elsewhere. Whilst the players in the other states all look fresh, fit and healthy.

  9. Taylormade

    Whilst the players in the other states all look fresh, fit and healthy.

    WOW, ya mean despite ‘The Plague’ nothing has changed from previous years ?

  10. The Nine News report on the Dobell and Macquarie polling is here:
    https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1317725051530235904

    It has the Liberals leading 51.2% to 27.9% in Macquarie and 53.2% to 31.1% in Dobell. It was conducted by the Redbridge Group, whose principals include former Labor apparatchik Kos Samaras. It also had bad seat polling for Labor in September:
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/11/something-for-everybody/

    But also good results for Victorian Labor at around the same time:
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/09/17/still-affairs-state/comment-page-18/

    Kos Samaras has been careful to note its voting intention results should be treated with caution, since “Labor and the National Party always under-report in telephone surveys because they generally have a larger number of supporters who are difficult to engage”.

  11. The NSW seat of Hawkesbury encompasses Sydney’s semi-rural NW outskirts plus more distant areas which are mostly National Park but including rural areas. It is becoming increasingly urbanised around Richmond and Windsor. This is less salubrious than Sydney’s bible-belt NW which is further East and not in the seat. So the seats would contain rural voters, pockets of affluence and pockets of battlers.

    EDIT: it includes parts of the Blue Mountains but not the towns along the Great Western Highway, just the bits along Bells Line of Road: https://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/NSWEC/media/NSWEC/Maps/2015 Districts – Low resolution/electoral_A3_book_region_final_HAWKESBURY.gif

  12. Just listening to a podcast and they are describing Christian zealots as no better than jihadis from other religions. They just have found a more sophisticated way of achieving their fever swamp goals. Via politics. Or in America by nominating judges.

  13. I’ve always thought that fanatics of all stripes have a lot in common with each other, much more so than with more moderate members of their religion, political party or whatever. The only difference between fanatics is what they are fanatical about.

  14. Bingo

    That Antifa Dr Sheep Person
    @noplaceforsheep
    ·
    42m
    Imagine all the lies & half truths Berejiklian must have told everyone to keep that relationship secret for five years.

  15. Putting my “Lars” hat on for a moment, I must ask C@tmomma if it is still her considered opinion that Gladys is a lesbian?

    It seems that Gladys’ unprompted announcement today of possible future wedding plans would indicate (and all I am prepared to say is “indicate”) that her sexual predilections were in the opposite – or at least another – direction.

    I realise it would be gauche to comment on the Premier’s private sex life under ordinary circumstances, but as she has voluntarily seen fit to have it plastered all over today’s Sunday Telegraph, I’m guessing she’s OK with such discussions.

  16. Bushfire Bill @ #776 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 8:52 pm

    Putting my “Lars” hat on for a moment, I must ask C@tmomma if it is still her considered opinion that Gladys is a lesbian?

    It seems that Gladys’ unprompted announcement today of possible future wedding plans would indicate (and all I am prepared to say is “indicate”) that her sexual predilections were in the opposite direction.

    I realise it would be gauche to comment on the Premier’s private sex life under ordinary circumstances, but as she has voluntarily seen fit to have it plastered all over today’s Sunday Telegraph, I’m guessing she’s OK with such discussions.

    *sigh* Okay, I will admit that I got it wrong. My gay friend, habitue of Newtown and Sydney Uni Tutor, who told me that must have been just trying to spread a rumour. He convinced me. What can I say? I shouldn’t have repeated careless whispers. 🙂

    So, now can we start speculating about Gladys’ sex life? 😆

    *insertsarcasmemojihere*

  17. BB/c@t

    What if their secret relationship was such, to give them both the veneer as cover for other
    predilections.
    You know it makes sense. Lol

  18. Vicky,

    What if their secret relationship was such, to give them both the veneer as cover for other predilections.

    Come to think of it, Daryl does sound a bit gay, doesn’t he?

    Maybe Gladys saw him as a “safe pair of hands” (so to speak).

  19. Barney ITB

    Agreed. I’m thinking it is more likely the situation. Of course, not that it matters in the slightest.
    What is the issue here is the deceit, corruption and the cover up.

  20. Yep.

    Jodi McKay
    @JodiMcKayMP
    ·
    9h
    I know I said Gladys’ private relationships is just that – private.
    BUT how can you say your relationship is not of ‘sufficient status’ to disclose then in the next breath ‘I loved him & wanted to marry him.’

    You cannot have it both ways. There are too many inconsistencies.

  21. Barney, I edited my post to reflect that.

    The situation here is that Gladys could have kept her romantic life “very private”, but chose to spill her guts to the Sunday Tele, in a effort to prove… something.

    That she is not much better than a naive 50-something spinster, a girlish victim, bowled over by a silver-tongued rogue?

    Except that she’s the Premier of NSW and is supposed to be savvier about life than that. And it went on for over 5 years while she was supposedly protecting NSW citizens from spivs EXACTLY like him (but wasn’t).

    That everyone has a right to privacy until… see above re. spilling guts to the Tele.

    The simple reason she is still there is numbers. It’s the final nail in the coffin of ministerial responsibility in NSW. Not since Bob “Run the bastards over” Askin have we seen a more compromised Premier of NSW.

    AND she’s playing the “woman wronged” card. I’d like to see a male Premier try that one if he fell for a spivette.

  22. type “Gladys is a Lesbian”. There is more than one result.
    Might have been cover for a secret lover, might have been the secret lover was to cover. Might be a real interesting women. Does it really matter.

    The real issue is she lied to ICAC and is she is to believed, NSW has a ditzy women leading the state.

  23. poroti says:
    Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 9:35 pm

    frednk
    It would be sad BUT she is laughing all the way to the bank.

    I wonder what Murdock pays to troll Dan?

  24. Frednk

    The Murdoch stable are a toxic disgusting brew.

    Check this out from a fellow traveller

    Exclusive interview with Steve Bannon on my show on
    @SkyNewsAust
    at 6pm today. Bannon has big breaking news on the Hunter Biden emails, plus he speaks about the US election and Donald Trump’s plans post 2020. Tune in at 6pm!
    @WarRoomPandemic

    Sky News Australia
    @SkyNewsAust
    · 2h
    EXCLUSIVE: Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, contacted a shop owner who had the computer for repairs, in an effort to “get it back” according to former chief strategist to President Trump Steve Bannon.
    https://skynewsaust.page.link/GL92

    And a very pertinent follow up from Matt Bevan

    Matt Bevan
    @MatthewBevan
    ·
    1h
    Hi
    @SharriMarkson
    , just wondering if you can send me a link to the part of your Steve Bannon interview where you let your audience know that the man making unsubstantiated claims on your air is currently under indictment for allegedly being part of a massive fraud scheme?

  25. frednk
    The salaries of Rupert’s senior orcs are truly eye watering. You can understand why they are so loyal. They earn top 0.5% $s, money that they would never ever earn elsewhere.

  26. poroti
    so to Murdock you can sell you soul and self esteem.

    How the mighty fall.
    Pete Credlin; from top public servant to soulless.

    No; doesn’t work, she was always pretty much soulless. I withdraw. to the bank Pete Credlin laughs.

  27. “ AND she’s playing the “woman wronged” card. I’d like to see a male Premier try that one if he fell for a spivette.”

    How is she the woman wronged?

    Is she shocked over the level of his corruption, having had him removed from the liberal party for corruption at least two years before she stopped fucking him (oops, I know: the ‘close personal relationship’ wasn’t intimate. Sorry)? ‘I don’t need to know that bit’ seems to act as both a memory wipe and conscience absolver in Gladysland (and clearly amongst her media admirers).

    Was she spurned by him? From I can tell she only stopped fucking him when icac came knocking a few weeks ago (oops again ‘close personal relationship’. Not intimate. I’m sure I’ll get the hang of these marketing euphemisms. Eventually).

    Unless he stole from her, or beat her up, Darryl seems to be the wronged party in all of this … or more accurately the former Mrs McGuire and to a lesser extend Daryl are victims of the Macquarie St Succubus.

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